[Plantagenet]

Collapsology is big in France and some collapsologists in France think the Wuhan virus is going to act as a catalyst to bring on economic depression and famines and pestilence and wars and then general societal collapse.

virus-collapsology-civilisation

The crisis has come as a new movement called "collapsology"—which warns of the possible collapse of our societies as we know them—is gaining ground.
With climate change exposing how unsustainable the economic and social model based on fossil fuels is, they fear orthodox thinking may be speeding us to our doom.
The theory first emerged from France's Momentum Institute, and was popularised by a 2015 book, "How Everything Can Collapse".
Some of its supporters, like former French environment minister Yves Cochet, believe the coronavirus crisis is another sign of impending catastrophe.

Virus domino effect

While the mathematician, who founded France's Green party, "still hesitates" about saying whether the virus will be the catalyst for a domino effect, he quoted the quip that "it's too early to say if it's too late". Yet Cochet—whose book "Before the Collapse" predicts a meltdown in the next decade—is convinced that the virus will lead to "a global economic crisis of greater severity than has been imagined".The 74-year-old, who retired to France's rural Brittany region so he could live more sustainably, is also worried about an impending "global disaster with lots of victims, both economic and otherwise".

"What is happening now is a symptom of a whole series of weaknesses," warned Professor Yves Citton of Paris VIII University."It isn't the end of the world but a warning about something that has already been set in motion," he told AFP, "a whole series of collapses that have begun".


So many things are going wrong.....the pandemic has brought on an economic crisis in the middle of the climate crisis surrounded by endless wars and fiscal and political crisis. Is it possible that all these crises will combing into one giant hairball of a super-crisis that will cause the whole edifice of our global society to collapse.... ??

Cheers!

[Newfie]

Plant wrote:

So many things are going wrong.....the pandemic has brought on an economic crisis in the middle of the climate crisis surrounded by endless wars and fiscal and political crisis. Is it possible that all these crises will combing into one giant hairball of a super-crisis that will cause the whole edifice of our global society to collapse.... ??

I have been wondering about that. LTG has a number of factors coming to a slow crest about the same time. And they self reinforce the down turn. What would that look like, feel like, in real time?

I have a sense that the world wide over reaction to the virus is because we are collectively aware of our over shoot condition and thus fear of collapse. Thus as soon as this rather minor threat appeared we over reacted.

Do we, as a species, sense that we are at a peak time? Will that facilitate the crisis? Will that precipitate the crisis?

Stay tuned for our next action filled episode.

[Ibon]

I have been wondering about that. LTG has a number of factors coming to a slow crest about the same time. And they self reinforce the down turn. What would that look like, feel like, in real time?

I have a sense that the world wide over reaction to the virus is because we are collectively aware of our over shoot condition and thus fear of collapse. Thus as soon as this rather minor threat appeared we over reacted.

Do we, as a species, sense that we are at a peak time? Will that facilitate the crisis? Will that precipitate the crisis?

Yes. Definitely. A couple of years ago I arrived at the conclusion that we collectively had a major gestalt shift in our orientation moving from a position of seeing ourselves as a top predator over to a new orientation feeling collectively like prey.

As I was arguing with Dohboi and others a couple years ago that the most vulnerable species at the moment on the planet are humans because of the sheer scale of correction on the short term horizon.

This was all before I referred to humans as Kudzu Bunnies in regards to our overly fearful response to the pandemic.

We may not have all the scientific details regarding all the different modalities of collapse but we certainly have the capability to synthesize the different threats of overpopulation, climate change, biodiversity loss, fresh water soil and fisheries decline, geopolitical major shifts etc etc.. which leads to a profound sense of vulnerability.

We are indeed in a defensive contracted state like prey. Unhinged from that confident alpha top predator position.

We collectively know it and sense it

This will lead to tremendous social upheavel as we move through the consequences. But also seed the emergence of a new balanced perspective of our place in the community of life.

I think it is no exaggeration that we all stand before the precipice of unprecedented seismic events.

Fucking long overdue.

[AdamB]

The accurate term is "realist".

Says the father figure seeking reject from Matt's faith based doomer group.

[AdamB]

peak oil was a crock

Why do you think that? Last time I looked the world hadn’t reached peak oil yet.

Just as during all the other claims, there is always a peak oil going on.

M. King Hubbert’s mathematical model that purported to predict the exact date of peak oil turned out to be a crock, but thats different from the concept of peak oil itself.

No one disputes what Hubbert wrote that is axiomatic. Quoted here for those who wish to confuse the actual concept with the legions of doomers claiming it has happened, is happening, or will happen tomorrow. You know, like most folks at websites like this, a decade or more ago?

For any production curve of a finite resource of fixed amount, two points on the curve are known at the outset, namely that at t = 0 and again at t = ∞. The production rate will be zero when the reference time is zero, and the rate will again be zero when the resource is exhausted; that is to say, in the production of any resource of fixed magnitude, the production rate must begin at zero, and then after passing through one or several maxima, it must decline again to zero.

A copy of the entire work here for those with revisionist tendencies on what the man wrote, and what is axiomatic within the peak oil "idea".

I have a theory that doomer expressions of fear .... are more related to a fear of individual mortality, then any fear of global doom.

Once again you demonstrate that you don’t understand what you read. I’ve never seen any “expressions of fear” by any poster at this site ever.

Then you need to pay better attention.

[AdamB]

Collapsology is big in France and some collapsologists in France think the Wuhan virus is going to act as a catalyst to bring on economic depression and famines and pestilence and wars and then general societal collapse.

And you want to pretend this in combination with the steps they then take isn't proof of cheese eating surrender monkeys expressing fear? The proof as to whether or not they believe their own press is what they are doing about it. It appears they are reacting to exactly as expected to this stimuli, no different than folks like Savinar were growing window tomatoes so they would have food to eat when peak oil ended their civilized living 15 years ago.

[REAL Green]

and you want to pretend this in combination with the steps they then take isn't proof of cheese eating surrender monkeys expressing fear?

Your being dramatic about this. What is wrong with being prepared for disruptive events? Special forces do it as do emergency responders. Normal people who can should. Nothing wrong with the academics either just smart inquiry. Think of all the BS Nonsense in the world. People that overreact to these things generally have an agenda themselves. The drama and extremism works both ways in the absurd.

[AdamB]

and you want to pretend this in combination with the steps they then take isn't proof of cheese eating surrender monkeys expressing fear?

Your being dramatic about this.

Of course I'm being dramatic! It is what I do!

You don't think the end of the world, the collapse of all peoples and civilizations and the outright horror and doom we were cheated of by a misfiring peak oil 15 years ago is worthy of drama!

What is wrong with being prepared for disruptive events?

Absolutely nothing. Organized (and disorganized) religions have been doing it for a millennium now. It is perfectly normal.

Think of all the BS Nonsense in the world.

You are right! The claim Great Dieoff of the 80's, running out of oil by the end of the 80's, peak oil in 2005, Great Depression II that became known as "Greatest Equity Buying Opportunity of The Century", the nonsense is legion! Now we've got a slowly melting Arctic ice pack hanging around a few more years than it was supposed to, slowly rising seas that given another century or two might inconvenience Atlantic ocean front real estate owners, fires in place that have always had fires, except now all the crap people have built in firezones, we are amazed that more crap burns down, the borrowing of money that didn't crash the world in 2008 like it was supposed to according to Armageddon, the list goes on and on!! Maybe if folks just didn't pay attention to all the nonsense, or remember the number of times said nonsense wasn't considered nonsense, until we waited it out and then the suckers slunk away to manufacture some more nonsense, maybe THEN we wouldn't have to deal with all the nonsense!

What would think of the rule that once discredited by reality, all those hucksters of doom are thereafter banned as references in any next gen collapse fantasy scenario?

People that overreact to these things generally have an agenda themselves. The drama and extremism works both ways in the absurd.

Indeed. The good news being, after having been through nearly a generation of internet based fake hysteria, we now have examples of how nonsense is far more common for the things that people get all lathered up over than anything real.

[Newfie]

I have been wondering about that. LTG has a number of factors coming to a slow crest about the same time. And they self reinforce the down turn. What would that look like, feel like, in real time?

I have a sense that the world wide over reaction to the virus is because we are collectively aware of our over shoot condition and thus fear of collapse. Thus as soon as this rather minor threat appeared we over reacted.

Do we, as a species, sense that we are at a peak time? Will that facilitate the crisis? Will that precipitate the crisis?

Yes. Definitely. A couple of years ago I arrived at the conclusion that we collectively had a major gestalt shift in our orientation moving from a position of seeing ourselves as a top predator over to a new orientation feeling collectively like prey.

As I was arguing with Dohboi and others a couple years ago that the most vulnerable species at the moment on the planet are humans because of the sheer scale of correction on the short term horizon.

This was all before I referred to humans as Kudzu Bunnies in regards to our overly fearful response to the pandemic.

We may not have all the scientific details regarding all the different modalities of collapse but we certainly have the capability to synthesize the different threats of overpopulation, climate change, biodiversity loss, fresh water soil and fisheries decline, geopolitical major shifts etc etc.. which leads to a profound sense of vulnerability.

We are indeed in a defensive contracted state like prey. Unhinged from that confident alpha top predator position.

We collectively know it and sense it

This will lead to tremendous social upheavel as we move through the consequences. But also seed the emergence of a new balanced perspective of our place in the community of life.

I think it is no exaggeration that we all stand before the precipice of unprecedented seismic events.

Fucking long overdue.

Now here’s the thing. We ARE top level predators.

But we have nothing left to exploit, except our own species.

Think about it, as predators (and scavengers) we are genetically programmed for aggression, to take down prey.

THAT may be the great unraveling, as we turn upon ourselves. Its sometimes called life boat ethics, or survival of the fittest.

Are we seeing the beginning of that now? The fight for whats left?

[Plantagenet]

there is always a peak oil going on..

Obviously you don't understand the concept of peak oil.

For any production curve of a finite resource of fixed amount, two points on the curve are known at the outset, namely that at t = 0 and again at t = ∞. The production rate will be zero when the reference time is zero, and the rate will again be zero when the resource is exhausted; that is to say, in the production of any resource of fixed magnitude, the production rate must begin at zero, and then after passing through one or several maxima, it must decline again to zero.

A copy of the entire work here for those with revisionist tendencies on what the man wrote, and what is axiomatic within the peak oil "idea".

Wake up and smell the roses. Hubbert's linearization model DID NOT WORK. His prediction that global oil production would peak in 2000, and the subsequent revision by Prof. Ken Defeye of Princeton suggesting peak oil would happen in 2005 also have now been falsified.

I REPEAT FOR THOSE WHO ARE SLOW: HUBBERTS LINEARIZATION MODEL WHICH PURPORTED TO PREDICT THE DATE OF PEAK OIL HAS BEEN FALSIFIED.

Cheers!

PS: Curiously, it is still possible that although not THE factor Peak Oil may ultimately be one of the factors.....along with the virus and pandemic, financial collapse, famine, climate change, etc., that brings on collapse.

We'll just have to wait and see how it all plays out.

Its going to be very entertains, thats for sure......


WOW! This collapsology stuff is really exciting! I can't wait to see what happens next!

[Ibon]

I have been wondering about that. LTG has a number of factors coming to a slow crest about the same time. And they self reinforce the down turn. What would that look like, feel like, in real time?

I have a sense that the world wide over reaction to the virus is because we are collectively aware of our over shoot condition and thus fear of collapse. Thus as soon as this rather minor threat appeared we over reacted.

Do we, as a species, sense that we are at a peak time? Will that facilitate the crisis? Will that precipitate the crisis?

Yes. Definitely. A couple of years ago I arrived at the conclusion that we collectively had a major gestalt shift in our orientation moving from a position of seeing ourselves as a top predator over to a new orientation feeling collectively like prey.

As I was arguing with Dohboi and others a couple years ago that the most vulnerable species at the moment on the planet are humans because of the sheer scale of correction on the short term horizon.

This was all before I referred to humans as Kudzu Bunnies in regards to our overly fearful response to the pandemic.

We may not have all the scientific details regarding all the different modalities of collapse but we certainly have the capability to synthesize the different threats of overpopulation, climate change, biodiversity loss, fresh water soil and fisheries decline, geopolitical major shifts etc etc.. which leads to a profound sense of vulnerability.

We are indeed in a defensive contracted state like prey. Unhinged from that confident alpha top predator position.

We collectively know it and sense it

This will lead to tremendous social upheavel as we move through the consequences. But also seed the emergence of a new balanced perspective of our place in the community of life.

I think it is no exaggeration that we all stand before the precipice of unprecedented seismic events.

Fucking long overdue.

Now here’s the thing. We ARE top level predators.

But we have nothing left to exploit, except our own species.

Think about it, as predators (and scavengers) we are genetically programmed for aggression, to take down prey.

THAT may be the great unraveling, as we turn upon ourselves. Its sometimes called life boat ethics, or survival of the fittest.

Are we seeing the beginning of that now? The fight for whats left?

OK, we are top level predators enculturated since several generations that we can exploit our planets resources with impunity.

Consider that we evolved in the past to the status of top predator with a healthy respect and quite a bit of humility toward other formidable predators that we coexisted with. I walk the trails here at Mount Totumas in the company of jaguars and mountain lions. I walk with caution and humility and a sense of awe.

It is the arrogance of that impunity as we removed threats from our environment that make us so unprepared for the forces of the Overshoot Predator as we are confronted with her consequences.

Conclusion?

What we have is a self entitled top predator suddenly intuitively frightened...

Wow, that does sound like the perfect scenario for some serious societal dysfunction.

[AdamB]

there is always a peak oil going on..

Obviously you don't understand the concept of peak oil.

Quotes already providing demonstrating otherwise.

For any production curve of a finite resource of fixed amount, two points on the curve are known at the outset, namely that at t = 0 and again at t = ∞. The production rate will be zero when the reference time is zero, and the rate will again be zero when the resource is exhausted; that is to say, in the production of any resource of fixed magnitude, the production rate must begin at zero, and then after passing through one or several maxima, it must decline again to zero.

A copy of the entire work here for those with revisionist tendencies on what the man wrote, and what is axiomatic within the peak oil "idea".

Wake up and smell the roses. Hubbert's linearization model DID NOT WORK.

Learn to read better. I didn't quote the nonsense portion of peak oil, i.e. the linearization. Just the axiomatic nature of non-renewable resource extraction. Are you this ignorant in real life, or just trolling again for fun?

I REPEAT FOR THOSE WHO ARE SLOW: HUBBERTS LINEARIZATION MODEL WHICH PURPORTED TO PREDICT THE DATE OF PEAK OIL HAS BEEN FALSIFIED.

Cheers!

Go strawman those that fell for it in real time then and leave me out of it.

[AdamB]

What we have is a self entitled top predator suddenly intuitively frightened...

Wow, that does sound like the perfect scenario for some serious societal dysfunction.

Sounds like the same sort of conditions that caused religion to be invented for the first organized mechanisms for large scale social control, dampening down fears, providing a ethereal reward, etc etc.

Not the whole idea, but there is far more to this than any one reference can encompass.

[Ibon]

What we have is a self entitled top predator suddenly intuitively frightened...

Wow, that does sound like the perfect scenario for some serious societal dysfunction.

Sounds like the same sort of conditions that caused religion to be invented for the first organized mechanisms for large scale social control, dampening down fears, providing a ethereal reward, etc etc.

Not the whole idea, but there is far more to this than any one reference can encompass.

Funny you should mention that. I have always said that the origin of our ecological dilemma is primarily spiritual in nature as much as it is the logistical challenge of managing resources in a sustainable way.

If events proceed and unfold in biblical proportions society will respond by redefining the spiritual context in how we choose to live a balanced life with our fellow fauna and flora. This new orientation comes as a result of moving through those consequences.

But who knows, this process may not happen in an apocalyptical way and may be more gradual.

[AdamB]

What we have is a self entitled top predator suddenly intuitively frightened...

Wow, that does sound like the perfect scenario for some serious societal dysfunction.

Sounds like the same sort of conditions that caused religion to be invented for the first organized mechanisms for large scale social control, dampening down fears, providing a ethereal reward, etc etc.

Funny you should mention that. I have always said that the origin of our ecological dilemma is primarily spiritual in nature as much as it is the logistical challenge of managing resources in a sustainable way.

Be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth!!!

If we haven't ingrained that into our apex predator, use it or lose it, burn baby burn human philosophy, I'm Matt "Hero Substitute Teacher" Savinar.

If events proceed and unfold in biblical proportions society will respond by redefining the spiritual context in how we choose to live a balanced life with our fellow fauna and flora. This new orientation comes as a result of moving through those consequences.

And what might your opinion be on the odds of changing our collective behavior BEFORE we get to see all the Biblical consequences?

But who knows, this process may not happen in an apocalyptical way and may be more gradual.

An optimist!!! Off with your head!

[Plantagenet]

.. trolling again for fun..

Please stop it. Please also stop your childish name-calling.

I started this thread on "modern Collapsology" in order to have a discussion of modern concepts of Collapsology. My hope was that we might have an adult and intelligent discussion on this interesting topic.

You are welcome to join in the discussion here, but please try to avoid attacking the other posters and please avoid calling them names because it diverts the thread away from discussing the topic.

To summarize, just discuss the topic, please.

Cheers!

[AdamB]

.. trolling again for fun..

Please stop it. Please also stop your childish name-calling.

It isn't name calling when it accurately reflects your normal MO. You really need to act silly to attract the kind of attention you want?

You are welcome to join in the discussion here, but please try to avoid attacking the other posters and please avoid calling them names because it diverts the thread away from discussing the topic.

Why thank you very much for your unneeded permission.

Now, on topic. For starters, I recommend attempting to understand the stories of doomers (you can call them collapniks or whatever you'd like), as folks becoming Amish isn't a new idea at all. Amish being the US version of this idea, your article seemed to focus primarily on the johnny come lately cheese eating surrender monkey version.

[Ibon]

and what might your opinion be on the odds of changing our collective behavior BEFORE we get to see all the Biblical consequences?

Close to zero. Everything before the consequences is only symbolic.

Expecting a revolutionary change of thinking before the consequences is putting the cart before the horse.

Those consequences are the catalyst. Been saying that since over 20 years!

[Newfie]

Adam,

A lot of this can be explained in the context of the Prisoners Dilemma experiments. In those experiments one could improve their mediate position at cost to another. The crux of the matter was that if there was to be a short term relationship, then it paid to dime put your partner, not cooperate.

If you are expect a long standing relationship then it pays to cooperate with your partner and take some of the punishment. This is team building through building your reputation in the community as a team player.

Once you interject God then you loose the option for a short term relationship because GOD is always there. So the ALL KNOWING GOD becomes the community you can not hide from and this encourages good community behavior.

[Tanada]

many empires that have collapsed historically suffer from a commonality. That common factor is, the central government became too set in its ways and entrenched in protecting its perceived government bureaucracy self interest. When this happens the central government becomes very slow or incapable of responding to new factors that constantly crop up. In a civilization where the central government controls the small technical skilled class and most members are simple farmers who work to feed that top 10% as well as themselves the outside impact is typically either climate in the form of extreme events like long last drought or sustained monsoon like conditions that disrupt crop farming, infectious disease that wipes out at least 30% of the total population, or war with a more vital and responsive opponent who crashes their power structure.

We are not quite there yet, but the bumbling over reaction to Covid and the hyper partisanship are very bad signs going forward from here.