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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 12 Aug 2018, 22:42:09

pstarr wrote:
I declare this Epoch . . . the Sillycene. A time when humans got really really dumb.


I think the term "anthropocene" does not refer to the process by which the environment is unable to recover due to human activity but to the process by which human beings are barely able to recover due to the same.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 09:18:20

Rockdoc, you idiot. Did you think I would just let that lie go without coming back with documentation from the Subcommision itself? Everyone already knows you never post the truth, why do you even bother anymore? You have a credibility of -10.


God, you are a bonehead. What part of the Meghalayan Stage going from 4250 years to present do you not understand? They did not divide up the Meghalaya any further. There is no room for Anthropocene.

here is a picture of the latest chart (blown up for the Holocene).

Image

http://www.stratigraphy.org/index.php/ics-chart-timescale

Please note..Meghalayan goes from 4250 to Present.

Now unless you are incredibly stupid there isn’t much room to fit in an “Anthropocene” after Present. :roll:

Again this was submitted by the International Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy which is the group that the sub-committee on the Anthropocene reports to as a recommended update to the Stratigraphic Chart which is only approved by the IUGS. If the ISQS wanted an Anthropocene designation in there at this point in time they would have submitted it….they didn’t which means they are unconvinced by anything the sub-committee on Anthropocene has submitted to this point in time. What that means is the IUGS at this point in time does not recognize an Anthropocene designation in the Stratigraphic Chart. It is that simple, an Anthropocene Epoch or Age does not formerly exist. Your desire may want something different but sorry chum, you are out of luck on this one.
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Sillyscene........

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 11:53:42

Out of that garden, maybe agriculture were not the best thing for humanity after all, the forbidden fruit, indulging in taking everything, especially after burning coal.

Paul B. has a new video on the road to doom, hothouse Earth.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dpEHWY0mRw

Ten years ago Timothy Lenton spearheaded a scientific paper examining expert assessments on the types and likelihoods of Tipping Elements in the Climate System. A number of top European climate scientists published an update a few days ago, to get a handle on the risk of cascading climate feedbacks propelling the Earth into a hothouse state. They suggest that we are on that path now, and have a decade or two to avoid the worst. I fear that we have already gone over that cliff, and I declare a global climate change emergency to claw back up the rock face to attempt to regain system stability, or face an untenable calamity of biblical proportions.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45084144

It may sound like the title of a low budget sci-fi movie, but for planetary scientists, "Hothouse Earth" is a deadly serious concept.
Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.
Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this "irreversible pathway".
Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.


http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.



Since we are already speeding up without any hope of avoiding the worst case, I think we should burn BAU to keep the dirty shield, smoke intact as long as possible, to give us some extra time to do preps before we are trapped in a city or town.
Science cannot keep up with the speed of things unfolding.

That Guy, dr Doom:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMCIgu2zjH4&t=2s

https://guymcpherson.com/2018/06/edge-o ... obably-it/
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Re: Sillyscene........

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 15:16:07

Whitefang wrote:Science cannot keep up with the speed of things unfolding.


Science is keeping up just fine.

Its the world's leaders who have dropped the ball. They gave us a bogus global climate treaty that accomplished nothing when they set up the Kyoto Accords, and now they've given us another bogus climate treaty that accomplishes nothing in the Paris Accords.

We need a real international treaty that has teeth that will result in CO2 and CH4 emission cuts. Science has made that very very clear----its the idiot politicians who won't do their jobs.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 15:19:48

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6pzhBe7P00

YouTube of the study, with a few moments of the presentation of the scientists involved, Johan R.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v_ny7y ... r_embedded

Repost from Dohboi..,

Margo goes over the latest in melting Arctic sea ice, global methane, sulfur dioxide, ozone, carbon dioxide levels and much more.

Time is short. Be kind to one another and get your spiritual houses in order. God bless everyone! Power to the Truth!
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If you've not seen my background videos on methane, sulfur dioxide or ozone, here are the links:
Global Methane Forecasts (April 28, 2018): https://youtu.be/76T1w7pFWRo
Sulfur Dioxide & Volcanic Gases - Part 1 (May 23, 2018): https://youtu.be/mluvf_fibPQ
Looking at Ozone - Part 1 (June 24, 2018): https://youtu.be/BR06PpHowjI
Looking at Ozone - Part 2 (June 25, 2018): https://youtu.be/CA9mx7yzdOU
Looking at Ozone - Part 3 (June 26, 2018): https://youtu.be/9_KTbVMgNjE



DoD has made plans, 2014.....near blue ocean around 2020, from Rotterdam to Alaska in 4700 nmiles northeast passage, around 2025 the direct route 4000 nmiles, very close to the pole.
Always look on the bright side of life :wink:

Beginning to think about a schip for sale:

https://www.yachtfocus.com/gebruikte-bo ... yacht.html

You do need extra diesel for a trip into the unknown….bbbrrr
Twin engine and steering, handy if one system breaks down.

Captain of a ship that is going down
Water is close to sip
Hang on and drown
Life is precious in the light of fear
Fools we are here.

Mothertongue lyrics, not mine.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 17:13:04

Whitefang wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6pzhBe7P00

YouTube of the study, with a few moments of the presentation of the scientists involved, Johan R.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0v_ny7y ... r_embedded

Repost from Dohboi..,

Margo goes over the latest in melting Arctic sea ice, global methane, sulfur dioxide, ozone, carbon dioxide levels and much more.

Time is short. Be kind to one another and get your spiritual houses in order. God bless everyone! Power to the Truth!
Peace,
Margo
Margo's Website: http://margoshealingcorner.com

If you've not seen my background videos on methane, sulfur dioxide or ozone, here are the links:
Global Methane Forecasts (April 28, 2018): https://youtu.be/76T1w7pFWRo
Sulfur Dioxide & Volcanic Gases - Part 1 (May 23, 2018): https://youtu.be/mluvf_fibPQ
Looking at Ozone - Part 1 (June 24, 2018): https://youtu.be/BR06PpHowjI
Looking at Ozone - Part 2 (June 25, 2018): https://youtu.be/CA9mx7yzdOU
Looking at Ozone - Part 3 (June 26, 2018): https://youtu.be/9_KTbVMgNjE



DoD has made plans, 2014.....near blue ocean around 2020, from Rotterdam to Alaska in 4700 nmiles northeast passage, around 2025 the direct route 4000 nmiles, very close to the pole.
Always look on the bright side of life :wink:

Beginning to think about a schip for sale:

https://www.yachtfocus.com/gebruikte-bo ... yacht.html

You do need extra diesel for a trip into the unknown….bbbrrr
Twin engine and steering, handy if one system breaks down.

Captain of a ship that is going down
Water is close to sip
Hang on and drown
Life is precious in the light of fear
Fools we are here.

Mothertongue lyrics, not mine.


Finally something I know something about.

Steel is better in ice.
Sail boats, even just running under motor alone, get far better mileage than a powerboat. Unless the powerboat is designed and powered as a displacement only hull.
Twin screws are not so good in the ice. The keel, especially a sailboat keel, provides a lot of protection to the prop and rudder, it deflects the ice.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 13 Aug 2018, 20:26:24

Newfie wrote:Finally something I know something about.

Steel is better in ice.
Sail boats, even just running under motor alone, get far better mileage than a powerboat. Unless the powerboat is designed and powered as a displacement only hull.
Twin screws are not so good in the ice. The keel, especially a sailboat keel, provides a lot of protection to the prop and rudder, it deflects the ice.


So does this mean you are sailing to Seattle taking the Northern Sea route shortcut?
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Sail away.....

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 10:57:21

Thanks Newfie,

The goal, promised land is BC North/Alaska peninsula from Rotterdam/Vlissingen or Morocco/Ouad Lou near the Rif mtns.

Not looking forward to a winter on Nova Zembla like Willem Barentz and his crew when they got stuck on the Northern Island searching for the shortcut to China/Japan.
They used the wood of the ship to built a cabin, handy creative people.

I though speed is what you need when the passage opens for a month or 6 weeks according to the navy site, Southern Island has a large military basis on google maps so you need a permit, maybe make it into a science expedition, one could contact with the Shakova's...hihi. Moermansk has about all the Russian navy schips so I think to just slip through is very unlikely.

I read that very few have sailed the passage, west and East, fewer than people on the Everest.
Idealy I would get a motorsailor, more space/food/diesel for a bug out boat.
If infrastructure still works, go with the flow south from Holland to Canary Islands and make a right until you hit Aruba/Brazil, even drifting with the tradewinds/currents will get you there.
Then reload and head for the Panama canal or make the round trip Cape Horn if things are still dandy.
Spend a winter down the Baja with campertruck Buccaneer 86 F250, carburated with a stick, broke down on the lonely coast, fishing lobster and drinking with those on the coast, lovely people.

The safest way would be the viking route with motorschip I guess, head for Schotland/Island/Greenland and find shelter along the Labrador coast, maybe even to Montreal, not bad for a city that is.
The NW passage looks very difficult, remains of multi year ice, narrow inlets etc etc.
Easy with the permits though.......

If one can still fly, buy a ticket to Montreal of Vancouver, that would be the easy thing to do but I bet that will be close to impossible within 5 years from now, 10 for sure.
Farm on the Rif, Morocco is being built, ready next year.
Camper is up and running fine, 97 Iveco diesel horse truck with Hobby Caravan and solar panels.

https://www.camptoo.nl/camper/4187/Ivec ... -Buccaneer

Would love to be independent and go for a schip, the bigger the better.....
I thought polyester best for low maintenance after the crash,


Anyway, thanks for the input
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No Future

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 11:38:11

Back on topic...…

This Guy is a drama queen with his "updated most recently, likely for that final time".....hihi.

But he is well versed in founding his findings on solid grounds, basic latest science publicly available for anyone using the net.

https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/ ... nd-update/

Updated most recently, likely for the final time, 2 August 2016.
The Great Dying wiped out at least 90% of the species on Earth due to an abrupt rise in global-average temperature about 252 million years ago. The vast majority of complex life became extinct. Based on information from the most conservative sources available, Earth is headed for a similar or higher global-average temperature in the very near future. The recent and near-future rises in temperature are occurring and will occur at least an order of magnitude faster than the worst of all prior Mass Extinctions. Habitat for human animals is disappearing throughout the world, and abrupt climate change has barely begun. In the near future, habitat for Homo sapiens will be gone. Shortly thereafter, all humans will die.
There is no precedence in planetary history for events unfolding today. As a result, relying on prior events to predict the near future is unwise.
*****
I’m often accused of cherry picking the information in this ever-growing essay. I plead guilty, and explain myself in this essay posted 30 January 2014. My critics tend to focus on me and my lack of standing in the scientific community, to which I respond with the words of John W. Farley: “The scientific case is not dependent on citation of authority, no matter how distinguished the authority may be. The case is dependent upon experimental evidence, logic, and reason.” In other words, stop targeting the messenger.


A fine and extensive overview of the disaster, with the latest updates. Plenty linkies to follow.
He thinks next fall will see the western world in collapse, I think we will have an extra few years for it being such a grand affair, our western worldwide empire.

Best to get ready now as most shops are still open for business as usual
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Drama Guy

Unread postby Whitefang » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 16:12:51

In other words, near-term extinction of humans was already guaranteed, to the knowledge of Obama and his administration (i.e., the Central Intelligence Agency, which runs the United States and controls presidential power). Even before the dire feedbacks were reported by the scientific community, the administration abandoned climate change as a significant issue because it knew we were done as early as 2009. Rather than shoulder the unenviable task of truth-teller, Obama did as his imperial higher-ups demanded: He lied about collapse, and he lied about climate change. And he still does.



From that update, indeed the Department of Defence were informed, the latest at 2010 on abrupt CC, they chose not to tell anyone to prevent panic and inevitable crash of economy and the rest, food and water supply.

33. “Volcanologist Bill McGuire describes how rapid melting of glaciers and ice sheets as a result of climate change could trigger volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis” (13 February 2014 issue of The Guardian. According to a paper published online in the 5 February 2015 issue of Geophysical Research Letters, “underwater volcanoes defy expectations and erupt in bursts rather than a slow pace.”



According to Margo, huge clusters of quakes in Alaska, might be related to hydrates/drilling and the like, USGS-site.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 16:25:36

Yes, even before the Pentagon already had an idea about the approaching catastrophic dimensions of abrupt climate change
Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us
· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war 
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years 
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... heobserver
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Aug 2018, 17:03:45

onlooker wrote:Yes, even before the Pentagon already had an idea about the approaching catastrophic dimensions of abrupt climate change
Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us
· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war 
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years 
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... heobserver


Maybe Bush listened to that 2004 report from the Pentagon, because by the end of his administration the US was one of the chef proponents of mandatory cuts in global CO2 emissions in the UN climate change treaty negotiations.

The climate change problem has been well understood and the critical importance of cutting CO2 emissions has been known for decades. Thats why the Bush administration negotiated a new UN climate treaty with legally binding requirements for CO2 global emissions cuts to replace the flawed Kyoto Treaty where emission cuts were voluntary. Essentially the negotiating teams from all the countries of the world agreed to mandatory CO2 cuts at a meeting in Bali in 2007. That was the climate change treaty that all the world's leaders gathered in Copenhagen in 2009 to sign and ratify.

Unfortunately, Obama had become President by then and he derailed the climate treaty signing in Copenhagen by getting in tiff with the Chinese. Then he shifted the US position away from backing mandatory CO2 emissions cuts to the current position of backing a voluntary limit on how much warming can occur. Negotiating a new treaty without mandatory CO2 emissions cuts took another 6 years, and thats the basis of the 2015 UN Accords that Obama signed in Paris----a basically fraudulent agreement that proclaims the earth shall warm no more then 2°C but doesn't require mandatory CO2 emissions cuts, i.e. it will do nothing to actually stop the global warming. What a farce!

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back to CC

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 07:19:34

64 and 65. A study published in the 11 July 2016 online issue of Nature thoroughly documents one of the most profound planetary changes yet to be caused by a warming climate: The distribution of clouds all across Earth has shifted. Specifically, the shift has expanded subtropical dry zones, located between around 20 and 30 degrees latitude in both hemispheres, and also by raising cloud tops. Each of these changes worsens overall planetary warming. According to a story in the Washington Post accompanying the paper’s release, each of these two changes to clouds is a positive feedback to climate change.



A feedback I was not yet aware of, just to please our friend here with his search, collecting feedback loops.

https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/ ... nd-update/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn ... qykjvS1ym4


Bit of an oldy...2013, but maybe another bit of feedback.

Climate change is causing the North Pole’s location to drift, owing to subtle changes in Earth’s rotation that result from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. The finding suggests that monitoring the position of the pole could become a new tool for tracking global warming.
Computer simulations had suggested that the melting of ice sheets and the consequent rise in sea level could affect the distribution of mass on the Earth’s surface. This would in turn cause the Earth’s axis to shift, an effect that has been confirmed by measurements of the positions of the poles.
Now, Jianli Chen of the University of Texas at Austin and colleagues have shown that melting due to our greenhouse-gas emissions is making its own contribution to the shift.
The wobble in Earth’s axis of rotation is a combination of two major components, each with its own cause. One is called the Chandler wobble and is thought to arise because the Earth is not rigid. Another is the annual wobble, related to Earth’s orbit around the sun.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 15 Aug 2018, 22:23:39

Thanks for these.

I'm not sure how the NP shift constitutes a GW feedback exactly, but it's certainly an interesting and slightly disturbing consequence of GW.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 16 Aug 2018, 13:28:31

dohboi - Exactly. Some folks get so focused on temperatures and ignore how complex the entire dynamic really is.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 17 Aug 2018, 14:42:11

Well this is not strictly a feedback but it is surely amounts to negative eventualities related to CC.


Fire and Ice: Melting Glaciers Trigger Earthquakes, Tsunamis and VolcanoesGeologists Say Global Warming Expected to Cause Many New Seismic Events


https://www.thoughtco.com/melting-glaci ... es-1203842
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 17 Aug 2018, 17:24:52

It is a feedback if the volcanoes, as they usually (always?) do, put out a lot of extra CO2. Of course, the short term effect of a major volcanic eruption would be cooling ('negative feedback'), but that would only be for a couple years or so.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 01:27:42

dohboi wrote:It is a feedback if the volcanoes, as they usually (always?) do, put out a lot of extra CO2. Of course, the short term effect of a major volcanic eruption would be cooling ('negative feedback'), but that would only be for a couple years or so.

Good point Dohboi
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 11:39:22

It is a feedback if the volcanoes, as they usually (always?) do, put out a lot of extra CO2. Of course, the short term effect of a major volcanic eruption would be cooling ('negative feedback'), but that would only be for a couple years or so.


Not the case according to some research:

Gleckler, P. J. et al, 2006. Volcanoes and climate: Krakatoa’s signature persists in the ocean, Nature, 439, p675

We have analysed a suite of 12 state-of-the-art climate models and show that ocean warming and sea-level rise in the twentieth century were substantially reduced by the colossal eruption in 1883 of the volcano Krakatoa in the Sunda strait, Indonesia. Volcanically induced cooling of the ocean surface penetrated into deeper layers, where it persisted for decades after the event. This remarkable effect on oceanic thermal structure is longer lasting than has previously been suspected1and is sufficient to offset a large fraction of ocean warming and sea-level rise caused by anthropogenic influences.


In this paper the authors note that the eruption slowed sea-level rise and ocean warming well into the 20th century.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 Aug 2018, 11:56:26

Decadal time scales are what I meant by 'short term.'

Krakatoa probably emitted around 200 million tons of CO2, which stayed in the atmosphere far longer than decades, and had climate effects longer than that.

Of course, that's nothing compared to the, what now, around 40 billion tons of CO2 we now spew into the atmosphere every single year.
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