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Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 02:09:46

LTO producers are trying to extract more energy for every unit of energy they use. Not that they care about EROEI, they are just trying to make more dollars on every dollar they spend, which is basically another way of calculating EROEI.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby marmico » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 09:06:04

As honest as any welsher. As ignorant as any tin horn.


And ETP Bozo's website is kaput. Finally.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 10:18:00

LTO producers are trying to extract more energy for every unit of energy they use. Not that they care about EROEI, they are just trying to make more dollars on every dollar they spend, which is basically another way of calculating EROEI.


LTO is produced from source rock. It is found at depths that are deeper, and hotter, and with much higher formation pressures than conventional black oil that comes, in most places in the world, at about the 4,000 foot level. As a result of its higher formation pressures and temperatures the larger molecules are broken down, and the resulting smaller fractions have lower per unit energy content. LTO has a lower ERoEI than conventional black oil because of its formation process. It is not suitable for the direct production of fuels. LTO will never be able to power modern civilization that requires an ERoEI of at least 7:1. It is being extracted as a last ditch effort because the high energy conventional black oils have been depleted. There are no new large fields of black oil to bring on line. As the economy continues to die from energy starvation, and its accompanying exploding debt, LTO production will be discontinued for all uses, but to act as a general diluent, and petrochemical feed stock. Those uses will cease when the economy has ceased to function.

The oil age is ending, and it is hardly even being mentioned. The next, soon to arrive depression, will not be televised. The media are the hired henchmen of a failing system.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 11:10:15

Yoshua wrote:LTO producers are trying to extract more energy for every unit of energy they use.


Any E&P in the US is trying to make money. Anyone who has worked for a production company for longer than 10 minutes understand this.

Just because this is a peak oil website doesn't require you to be ignorant of the most basic principles that keep it moving.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 11:13:47

marmico wrote:
As honest as any welsher. As ignorant as any tin horn.


And ETP Bozo's website is kaput. Finally.


He finally couldn't stop the laughter from being generated from the website and had to kill it? Not a surprise I suppose. I've got my old copy, I keep it around when some junion staffer shows up and asks how to do their first paper, I hand them a copy and tell them "make sure it doesn't look like this, read like this, or is as ignorant of the topic as this" and consider that a valuable learning experience.

I haven't been around for awhile, has he paid off on any of his lost bets on his stupid concept? I haven't seen it printed in any science rag either, did his inability to get it through any kind of review finally sink it?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 11:20:34

shortonoil wrote:
LTO producers are trying to extract more energy for every unit of energy they use. Not that they care about EROEI, they are just trying to make more dollars on every dollar they spend, which is basically another way of calculating EROEI.


LTO is produced from source rock.


Not when it has migrated out of the source rock into something else, halfwit. L stands for "light", T stands for "tight", there is no S tinhorn.

shortonoil wrote: It is found at depths that are deeper, and hotter, and with much higher formation pressures than conventional black oil that comes, in most places in the world, at about the 4,000 foot level.


I drilled for, completed and produced LTO at depths less than 4000'. Exclusively I believe, for my entire industry career. How much LTO from formations < or > 4000' have you drilled for, completed or produced, tinhorn?

shortonoil wrote:The oil age is ending, and it is hardly even being mentioned.


Indeed. Would you care to discuss that, rather then your tinhorn understanding of how petroleum geology, petroleum engineering or economics works?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 12:39:08

marmico wrote:
As honest as any welsher. As ignorant as any tin horn.

And ETP Bozo's website is kaput. Finally.


Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Triangle of Demand Destruction

Unread postby Baduila » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 14:27:21

The band restricting the oil price gets tighter and tighter. The green dotted line is for the maximum the economy can stand, and the blue dotted line for the minimum oil producers can stand. Even the destruction of the plant in Abquaiq did not allow the oil price to get higher.

Image

In April both lines will clash. Peak oil will be evident. I expect, something big will shatter, but i don't know what.
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 15:23:26

The WTI is already so compressed in that triangle that something big should already be breaking down.

Well...the Repo market blew up. The Fed is now pumping money into the Repo market and doing Not QE.

The world as we know it is already coming to an end with riots spreading from one nation to another like a wild fire.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby BahamasEd » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 19:16:17

The world as we know it is already coming to an end with riots spreading from one nation to another like a wild fire.


This is what happens when someone has to be thrown under the bus, as in there's not enough energy to go around so someone has to go without.

The weak and poor will not get as much energy as in the past, so they will riot, what else can they do?

It will just continue to get worse from here.
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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Re: Triangle of Demand Destruction

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 19:40:56

Baduila wrote: I expect, something big will shatter, but i don't know what.


Still afraid to speak for yourself Short? Why'd you take down the website? Someone attach a laughter .wav to it to give everyone a clue as to its value?

Image
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 20:02:45

The band restricting the oil price gets tighter and tighter. The green dotted line is for the maximum the economy can stand, and the blue dotted line for the minimum oil producers can stand. Even the destruction of the plant in Abquaiq did not allow the oil price to get higher

Pure nonsense. All you have done is join up the two peaks in oil price and assume the collapse from those intermittent highs had anything to do with demand. It did not demand for oil did not drop appreciably during the recession, it instead continued its slow climb and the 2014 collapse was due entirely to too much supply being around (success in shales, OPEC and Russia not cutting back). And in late 2018 the market fell apart, nothing to do with oil demand completely independent but with the market panicking that maybe a recession had arrived there was a large selloff in oil. It hasn't gotten back to where it was because the Permian has been so successful with the US reaching record outputs, again too much supply even though demand has increased. And as to the minimum price....what exactly information do you have from the industry that tells you this is correct? None I'm assuming. Once again all you have done is join up a couple of lows. We know for a fact that in a two year period from 2016 to 2018 the minimum price did not increase by $15/bbl, in fact the breakeven price dropped over that period with all of the success in the Permian.

Playing with graphs when you don't understand the underlying drivers of what creates them doesn't make you look smart. If you think it does then I guess I'm not surprised. :roll:
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Re: Triangle of Demand Destruction

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 17 Nov 2019, 21:54:43

Baduila wrote:The band restricting the oil price gets tighter and tighter. The green dotted line is for the maximum the economy can stand, and the blue dotted line for the minimum oil producers can stand. Even the destruction of the plant in Abquaiq did not allow the oil price to get higher.

Image

In April both lines will clash. Peak oil will be evident. I expect, something big will shatter, but i don't know what.

So just making things up out of whole cloth are we? What in the hell does the green line have to do with the MAP price which has failed dramatically for quite a while, re this entire topic?

According to you, large price swings are proof of ETP being right. Tight price ranges are proof of ETP being right.

Gee, how imaginative. :roll: And as credible as the gold/silver sellers who say it's ALWAYS time to buy lots and lots of PM's. :shock:

You're making the ETP Bozo sound smart. Hint: that's not a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Triangle of Demand Destruction

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 00:36:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:You're making the ETP Bozo sound smart. Hint: that's not a good thing.


Sure as shootin', Baduila is a Short sock puppet. He's got more than one around, it is terribly entertaining when they pretend to discuss thermodynamics and then make up nonsense about how the oilfield works.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 09:51:37

Hong Kong, the third largest financial centre in the world, is burning.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1196187408183840768
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Re: Triangle of Demand Destruction

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 12:31:44

Baduila wrote:The band restricting the oil price gets tighter and tighter. The green dotted line is for the maximum the economy can stand, and the blue dotted line for the minimum oil producers can stand. Even the destruction of the plant in Abquaiq did not allow the oil price to get higher.

Image

In April both lines will clash. Peak oil will be evident. I expect, something big will shatter, but i don't know what.



I've amended your chart to illustrate how silly those converging dotted lines are:

Image

See the arrows I just drew? That indicates where the upper dotted line or the bottom dotted line make no sense. You are just deciding to ignore these huge variations and draw a straight line right through the disconnect. That sort of thing is ridiculous. And why should two arbitrary lines you're drawing crossing be so ominous? You're seeing Jesus in toast, man.

All those lines may illustrate is that there is less variability in oil prices, and that would be a good thing...ya know, for it to just sort of hover around a reasonably stable sweet-spot.

Since 2016, prices have stayed roughly between 40 and 60 bucks, which is basically, steady as she goes BAU. Not exactly what peakers would have predicted during the runup to 2008.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 13:34:17

The WTI is already so compressed in that triangle that something big should already be breaking down.

Well...the Repo market blew up. The Fed is now pumping money into the Repo market and doing Not QE.

The world as we know it is already coming to an end with riots spreading from one nation to another like a wild fire.


The price of oil hasn't moved out of its very tight band in a year. It is obviously being controlled to keep the price high enough to keep the industry in business, and low enough to keep the economy from crashing. If interest rates can be set by the central banks oil would be a spare change operation.

The loose edges do appear to be coming off as the vice tightens. Riots all over the world, and completely senseless mass murders now almost on a daily basis. The political system has turned into a freak show. We are now 87% down the oil energy curve, and the society appears to be losing it. Stability is vanishing.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 14:10:05

OPEC is the largest cartel in the world.

Q: The purpose of a cartel?
A: To manipulate to the price.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 15:27:59

OPEC cuts production to stabilize the price.
The do it since september 2019 and have done it before.
Image

They need the money and they will act if the brent price drops below about 60$.

The line connecting the maxima includes the maximum of July 2008 of 145$. The oil price has never been above this line. Why should something happen which has never happened before ?
Image Take care of the second law.
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Re: Mid-Year ETP MAP Update

Unread postby Baduila » Mon 18 Nov 2019, 15:52:09

They do it since september 2018
Image Take care of the second law.
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