Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Jul 2012, 12:41:02

I'm surprised no one has posted the Maugeri paper since every cornucopian in the media is acting as if this one paper is the be all and end all of the PO "debate".

Here is a good post by Hamiton at econobrowser, it concludes:

I agree with Maugeri that new production from places like the United States and Iraq is going to be very helpful. But I think he substantially overstates the case for optimism. If we are counting on sources such as shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater to replace production lost from mature conventional oil fields, the days of cheap oil are never going to return.


Anyway, post up your favorite articles.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Jul 2012, 12:43:35

And the Archdruid: On the Far Side of Denial:
Over the last few weeks, a number of my fellow peak oil writers have expressed worries about this outpouring of counterfactual drivel. Myself, I find it a very hopeful sign. What we are seeing is the shattering of the consensus that has excluded any discussion of peak oil from the collective conversation of our time. Plenty of pundits who refused to talk about peak oil at all are now talking about it incessantly. Even though they’re screeching at the top of their lungs that it can’t happen, and scrabbling around for any argument, however feeble or blatantly false, they can use to back up that proposition, they’re still talking about it.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Jul 2012, 12:46:32

Euan Mearns @ TOD:
Maugeri's analysis and conclusions are critically dependent upon the decline rates applied to existing and future fields, and yet he does not explicitly say what these decline rates will be. However, Maugeri’s assumptions can be derived from his Table 2, which projects gross and net capacity additions over the period to 2020. Doing so suggests he uses an average annual decline rate for all fields of 1.6% over this period, which is less than half of the IEA and CERA estimates for 2008 (4.1%/year and 4.5%/year respectively). The discrepancy is even greater since the IEA and other analysts project an increase in average decline rates over the 2011-20 period. If we replace Maugeri’s 1.6% decline rate assumption with the IEA estimate of 4.1%, the projected loss of production capacity over the period to 2020 increases from 11 mb/d to 26.5 mb/d. In turn, the projected global production capacity in 2020 reduces from 110.6 mb/d to 95.1mb/d (a reduction of 14%). Since average decline rates would be expected to increase over this period, this projection must be considered optimistic.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Thu 19 Jul 2012, 12:49:54

Heading Out at TOD:
Sigh! I explained last time that with the change in well orientation from vertical to horizontal, that there was a change in the apparent decline rates. When the wells run horizontally at the top of the reservoir, they are no longer reduced in productive length each year as vertical wells are, because the driving water flood slowly fills the reservoir below the oil as it is displaced. This does not mean that because the apparent decline rate from the well has fallen that it will ultimately produce more oil.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Graeme » Thu 19 Jul 2012, 21:06:20

And this from Oilprice:

Looking at Leonardi Maugeri's Views on Peak Oil

About half of Maugeri's calculated 17.6 mb/d in net additional production capacity comes from two countries-- the United States and Iraq (see his Table 2). I have earlier discussed the situation for the United States. To briefly recap, more than half of the increase in total U.S. oil production since 2005 has come from biofuels and natural gas liquids, neither of which should be added to conventional crude production for purposes of calculating the available supply. Another important contribution to recent U.S. production gains has come from shale/tight oil. I agree with Maugeri that this will be an important factor in the future, but it is not cheap, and there are some big uncertainties in extrapolating recent gains, about which I will have more to say below.

But first let's take a look at Iraq, which by itself accounts for 5.1 mb/d, or 29% of the net combined global gains that Maugeri is anticipating. His starting point for these calculations (see his Table 1) is the "production target" associated with a dozen oil fields for which the Iraqi government has signed contracts with oil companies. These targets call for these fields to reach maximum levels of production which, when added together, come to 11.6 mb/d. To win a contract, oil companies had to specify two key parameters: a "target" level of production and a remuneration per barrel, with awards going to the companies that specified the highest target and lowest remuneration. Some have characterized the announced targets simply as propaganda. Once awarded, there seems to be a separate process in which the production targets get renegotiated. Maugeri acknowledges the logistic and security challenges in meeting the targets, and accordingly cuts the official estimates in half. Doing so would still be a stunning achievement, requiring an Iraq that would be substantially more stable and successful over the next decade than it has been over the last three.


I agree with Maugeri that new production from places like the United States and Iraq is going to be very helpful. But I think he substantially overstates the case for optimism. If we are counting on sources such as shale/tight oil, oil sands, and deepwater to replace production lost from mature conventional oil fields, the days of cheap oil are never going to return.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
User avatar
Graeme
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13258
Joined: Fri 04 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Fri 20 Jul 2012, 08:39:05

And one more on the assumed decline rate:
If we replace Maugeri’s 1.4% decline rate assumption with the IEA estimate of 4.1%, the projected loss of production capacity over the period to 2020 increases from 11 mb/d to 29.2 mb/d. In turn, the projected global production capacity in 2020 reduces from 110.6 mb/d to 92.4 mb/d (a reduction of 16%). Hence, a more realistic decline rate completely eliminates his projected increase. Since average decline rates would be expected to increase over this period, this projection must also be considered optimistic.

ODAC
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 20 Jul 2012, 21:08:30

Yibal field in Oman is a textbook case of what happens when enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods are applied to oil reservoirs. Horizontal maximum recovery contact (MRC) wells combined with water flooding result in a temporary bumps in production but later precipitous declines and oil field depletion. This from 2004 Energy Bulletin


This is an incredibly uninformed comment. The horizontal wells drilled in Yibal were drilled long before the advent of MRC wells in Saudi Arabia (the horizontal drilling in Yibal was 96 – 97 and the noted watering out was in 98 whereas the first of the MRC wells in SA weren’t drilled until 2002 and not properly implemented until 2007). It also shows an incredible ignorance about the fact that “not all rocks are created equal”. The Yibal Shuaybah reservoir is predominantly chalk, which means it, has high porosity but very low permeability. This is as far from the same reservoir as SA as can be. Some zones that are not chalk and have high permeability which, along with the well-documented faults in the field, become conduits for water complicate it. This reservoir isn’t at all like the Arab reservoirs that produce in SA where MRC wells have been extremely successful. Also part and parcel of the success in SA was the implementation of 4D seismic and proper full field modeling which wasn’t available to PDO during the Yibal years. And even in the equivalent reservoir (albeit slightly different facies) the Shuaybah MRC program in SA has been incredibly successful. This information is all readily available to anyone who wants to look for it on the SPE site. I can provide references to that literature for anyone interested. In short Yibal was an early experiment where they knew very little about the reservoir simply because Shell weren’t interested in spending a bunch of research dollars at the time. The contact in the reservoir was usually a 100 – to few hundred metres versus the MRC wells in SA which are up to 10 KM now. In comparison in SA Aramco pulled out all stops to look at the science and technology and solved the issues that occur due to permeability streaks, faults, strong water drive etc. The technology applied in either case is night and day. And I would point out there is recent SPE literature indicating they are revisiting Yibal to see if they can improve further what they have done since the Twilight in the Desert ill-informed review simply because the science has advanced since they had their problems.

The use of this new oilfield technology at Yibal was the first experiment with horizontal drilling anywhere in the Middle East. This is what Simmons had to say in his groundbreaking 2005 Twilight in the Desert; "It is now clear that the many new horizontal wells merely drained the last oil remaining to be swept at the end of Yibal's three-decades-long water injection program"


OK let’s reference a financial analyst with regards to technical reservoir engineering information. …that makes sense.
In a number of threads over the years I’ve walked through the comments that he made regarding such and such paper and demonstrated how he probably only read the abstract and with the knowledge of someone who had never worked in a technical position in the patch..i.e. he didn’t have a clue what they were saying. I had access back then to SPE and went to each and everyone of the references and invariably when you walked through the paper with a bit of knowledge it was pretty clear he didn’t get it…he saw problems and ignored the solutions they were showing worked. Somewhere on this site my comments should have been archived.
The implications today are obvious; given the lack of Saudi Arabian response to record high oil prices from 2005-2008, their new-found reliance on old dirty oil, and a homegrown refinery market for Manifa, should be clear to a discriminating peak-oil student that this precisely what is happening in SA.


Again ill-informed comment bordering on stupidity. During the record high oil prices you speak of SA was not in a position to address increasing production to meet the accelerated demand. Since the seventies their interest was in market share and hence producing more oil wasn’t in their agenda, they had done no development or facilities expansion for a couple of decades. They got caught with their pants down and the fact of the matter is if you haven’t drilled the wells and built the necessary facilities you can’t turn on the taps. This was precisely the reason they initiated the mega-projects. And the biggest ill-informed statement you make is it is all “dirty oil”. I’ve posted this on the site years ago and the truth is that the only heavy really S2 rich oil is Safaniyah and Manifa. The mega-projects without either of these fields contributed 100% of the current 12.5 MM/d spare capacity and they are all light and relatively sweet (by this I mean they are less than 2% S which is a standard around the world with the exception of southern Europe where the refineries are set up to handle less than 1% S).
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 21 Jul 2012, 07:53:22

I think it was mentioned in another thread.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5574
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Ming » Sun 22 Jul 2012, 10:24:20

pstarr wrote:Wow. Thanks Rockdoc for the treatise. I read the first sentence and it seemed inappropriate, almost irrelevant. I'll be sure to read the rest . . . someday.

Same!
User avatar
Ming
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 287
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Jul 2012, 10:29:45

Same!


are you suggesting that the short radius horizontal wells drilled in the nineties in Yibal are the same technology as the MRC wells drilled from 2003 onwards in SA? Are you suggesting all of the same technology was used in both including 4D seismic and million cell full field simulation? How about SMART completions and expandable liners?

If you haven't a clue about the technology being used then commenting on it's effectiveness seems somewhat ill=advised.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 22 Jul 2012, 16:35:12

Rockdoc you jumped in with insults and diversions. Maugeri was caught lying about production declines and reservoir depletion , brought on by new technology (used everywhere in the Middle East since, and elsewhere). Your lecture about the particulars of the timing of the implementation of the technology for this structure, or that, was beside the point.


Preccisely how is my response to your post :

Yibal field in Oman is a textbook case of what happens when enhanced oil recovery (EOR…


and

The use of this new oilfield technology at Yibal was the first experiment with horizontal drilling anywhere in the Middle East. This is what Simmons had to say in his groundbreaking 2005 Twilight in the Desert;…



The implications today are obvious; given the lack of Saudi Arabian response to record high oil prices from 2005-2008, their new-found reliance on old dirty oil, and a homegrown refinery market for Manifa, should be clear to a discriminating peak-oil student that this precisely what is happening in SA



in anyway diversion? You incorrectly assumed that Yibal had used the same technology as the SA field megaprojects, which it most certainly did not. I was simply responding to your ill-informed view. If you want to defend your view as Yibal being the same either from a reservoir perspective or a development perspective then please entertain us all. The Maugeri paper doesn’t mention Yibal at all and in fact has very little to say about Saudi Arabia other than taking their claim of 12.3 MMB of spare capcity plus current production at face value, which I’ve said before there is no valid reason not to.

Also I need to point out the MRC technology is not used “everywhere else in the Middle East since, and elsewhere.” In fact outside of a couple of fields in the UAE I can’t think of any fields where it is being used currently. The Malays use a somewhat similar but much less technologically advanced technique with mult-laterals in vertical wells but not anywhere near the same level of sophistication (i.e. no down hole shut-offs, SMART completions or large reservoir contact.

Before you get all snippy you should re-read your own posts
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 23 Jul 2012, 10:37:51

Dr. Rock has a terrible bedside manner. :lol:

Technology and geology I think will have less of an influence on how oil is produced and economics will be more and more influencial. The tight market and volatile prices are a recipe for (those in the know and with the staying power) making lots and lots of money, which in turn makes the system more volatile. Nobody wants the whole thing to collapse though, so there is that.
User avatar
dinopello
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6088
Joined: Fri 13 May 2005, 03:00:00
Location: The Urban Village

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby autonomous » Mon 23 Jul 2012, 15:11:09

Maugeri himself admits it is impossible to predict recoverable reserves from shale/tight oil formations based on available data (page 45):

Maugeri wrote:the huge differences in permeability, porosity, and thickness of a shale/tight oil formation require many more exploration wells be drilled in different areas of the field before making it possible to have an idea of the effective recoverability rate from the whole formation.... it is impossible to make any reasonable evaluation of the future production from a shale/tight oil formation based on the analysis of a few wells data and such limited activity.


But Maugeri goes ahead and makes predictions based on fact-free assumptions anyway. This paper is the same old over-optimistic drivel manufactured by the oil industry propaganda machine.
User avatar
autonomous
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 186
Joined: Mon 14 Nov 2011, 15:08:25

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 24 Jul 2012, 00:34:16

Here's the link where it was first discussed:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=65521
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5574
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Tue 24 Jul 2012, 17:57:23

It is instructive to me that many MSM outlets picked up on the "Harvard Study" (even though Harvard published a disclaimer disavowing any complicity) but I've yet to see any posting rebuttals. This is Chris Nelder at FT/alphville (he blogs at http://www.getreallist.com/)

We must conclude that the key assumptions about reserve growth and its effect on decline rates in Maugeri’s report are muddled, speculative and unverifiable. And sprinkling those assertions with repeated declamations about how peak oil is a non-issue, insisting repeatedly that the only real constraints on his scenario have to do with political decisions and geopolitical risks, suggests that his report is more about grinding a political axe on behalf of the oil industry than offering a serious or transparent analysis. Finally we must note that Maugeri is well known for his hostility to peak oil, as is BP, which funded his report. After taking real-world risks, costs, and restrictions into account, the case for peak oil—which is about production rates, not production capacity or reserves—seems far more realistic.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Maugeri-- Oil: The Next Revolution

Unread postby Pops » Wed 01 Aug 2012, 12:32:44

And yet another, this time with a reaction from Maugeri, h/t Energy Bulletin

MONBIOT PEAK OIL U-TURN BASED ON DUFF MATHS

When I challenged Mr Maugeri about the discrepancy between the 2-3% decline rate and the 1.4%, he said the difference was explained by reserves growth – the tendency to squeeze more oil than originally expected from existing fields, through new technology, the exploitation of secondary reservoirs and so on. But in that case he seems to have counted it twice, to judge by his quote in the paragraph above. Or possibly even three times, since the notion of reserves growth is already accounted for in the existing estimates. Both the IEA and IHS-CERA numbers are observed overall decline rates: they reflect the actual loss of production that happened after – or in spite of – all the industry’s investment to boost flagging output at existing fields.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Next

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests