Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 13:19:49

14 California Communities Now on Verge of Waterless-Ness; Mass Migration out of California Seems Imminent.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1030249 ... -imminent/

So it looks like we will have the collapse of the largest city in the Americas and the collapse of the largest state in the US happening at about the same time, though California's demise will happen more gradually and probably never completely.

From the article:

Unless California gets some heavy rain, and soon, the state’s roughly 38 million residents will eventually be up a creek without a paddle — or without a creek, for that matter. The latest media reports indicate that some 14 communities throughout the state are now on the verge of running completely dry, and many more could join them in the coming year if conditions remain as they are.

A few months ago, the official count was 28 communities bordering on complete waterless-ness, according to the Water Resources Control Board. Those that have since dropped off the list were able to come up with a fix, at least for now. The other 14, though, face an unprecedented resource collapse that could leave thousands of Californians with no other choice but to pack their bags and head to greener pastures.

“It’s a sign of how severe this drought is,” verbalized Bruce Burton, an assistant deputy director for the board, to the Los Angeles Times about some of the drastic measures being taken. For the first time ever, the water board has begun tracking communities throughout the state that are bordering on complete water loss, a situation that has never before occurred.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17489
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 13:41:29

Kind of surprising to me that there isn't a desalination building boom going on in CA. Yes it takes energy, but that is better than being waterless in the desert.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4300
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby westexas » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:00:06

Item linked on Drudge about wells drying up in California:

http://news.yahoo.com/california-commun ... 4AWwDQtDMD

I frequently quote the late great Elmer Kelton, who said that "West Texas is in a state of permanent drought, broken occasionally by rainfall." Arguably, except I suppose for the Pacific Northwest, one could apply this to most of the US to the west of Interstate Highway 35.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate ... 35_map.png
westexas
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 248
Joined: Tue 04 Jun 2013, 05:59:53

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby ritter » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:04:45

Subjectivist wrote:Kind of surprising to me that there isn't a desalination building boom going on in CA. Yes it takes energy, but that is better than being waterless in the desert.

You obviously do not know much about how long it takes to permit things in California! :)

It's not just the energy but the distribution of desalinated water. Building pipelines across the state is not an overnight endeavor, setting aside delays from environmental and property acquisition obstacles.
ritter
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 858
Joined: Fri 14 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:05:46

Other than farm workers, the ones who will suffer from the continuing drought will be YOU GUYS from out of state who depend on the food . . . we grow for you. :razz: I expect we'll get water we need to drink, bath, wash our clothes, and probably even water our lawns. Residential water-use accounts for only 8% of demand. We'll just shut down some farms.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27346
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:14:55

pstarr, it sounds from the article that some communities are indeed running out of water for everyday needs. I'm sure that is partly a consequence of some bad decisions--that's pretty much always the case. But the article says that at least 14 communities are just not going to be able to exist any more. It would be good to have a list of these to get an idea about what kinds of decisions were made or not made that lead to these being the communities being it first and hardest.

wt, true, but the West seems to have been particularly hard hit this time around:

the entire Western United states has lost an astounding 240 gigatons of water since 2013, an amount equivalent to 1 billion tons.

In spatial terms, this amount of water could be spread out across the entire Western U.S. in a solid 10-centimeter sheet, constituting about 63 trillion gallons, or enough to fill 75,000 football stadiums. This loss has not only altered the gravitational field of California, according to the study, but also caused mountains throughout the state to rise up out of the ground in some areas.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17489
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:42:31

California communities that depend wholly on depleting aquifers are exceptions. The rest of the state depends on reservoirs that while shrunken, are nowhere near empty. When push comes to shove the farmers will lose and the suburbanites will have their water. Sorry to burst your doomer water balloon. :razz:

Oh. And by the way: please take some water, it's getting muddy up here. :wink: And just so you don't get any ideas about migrating up here to Humboldt: there is only one way in/out of Humboldt and it is washed out. :razz:
Last edited by pstarr on Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:47:11, edited 1 time in total.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27346
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 14:47:10

Thanks for that distinction, pstarr. That makes sense to me. But apparently lot's of your fellow CA'ns are starting to freak out a bit in their concern/obsession with the issue:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/1 ... ians-poll/

For First Time, Water Tops List Of Californians’ Concerns

More than three times as many Californians are following news about the drought than are following news about the state’s gubernatorial race. A new poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found that 62 percent of voters are following the drought very closely while only 18 percent are following the election very closely. About another 30 percent were following each “fairly closely.”

...26 percent of respondents to the statewide survey said “water, drought” were the most important issues facing the state right now. That is a statistical tie with “jobs, economy” which got 29 percent as the PPIC poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

October 2014
29 percent – jobs, economy
26 percent – water, drought
6 percent – education, schools, teachers
4 percent – crime, gangs, drugs
4 percent – health care, health reform, Obamacare
4 percent – immigration, illegal immigration
4 percent – state budget, deficit, taxes

“That’s an incredible number,” Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO, told KQED. “It’s been the duration of this [three-year] drought and the fact that it’s affected every corner of the state, that’s made people realize that it’s not a short-term issue; it’s a long-term issue. I think there’s a fundamental shift going on.”

As recently as January, only seven percent responded to the poll saying that water or drought were the most important issues facing the state. Now 72 percent are saying that the supply of water is a big problem in their part of the state — a number that holds whether the person responding is a coastal or inland resident.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17489
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:05:19

So, what percentage of CA's pupulation is dependent upon agriculture, directly and indirectly for income?

Would not loosing all those jobs be a reason for out migration?

Maybe not unite a quickly but just as surely? And in far greater numbers?
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10699
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:21:22

Back in the real world, there is no mass migration out of California.

The population in California isn't dropping---it is still rapidly growing---the state added a million people in just the last 3 years. The state is ranked 18th for growth rate in the whole USA.

California population grew by a million people from 2010 to 2013

The million new arrivals just in the last three years are more than the entire population of 8 other states.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21410
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Deputy Barnes » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:29:56

A mass migration out of California would be delightful if it took a westerly direction.
"The most common lie is the lie that one tells to oneself" -- Friedrich Nietzsche

Vote Republican.
User avatar
Deputy Barnes
permanently banned
 
Posts: 113
Joined: Tue 14 Oct 2014, 07:56:12

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:33:41

Deputy Barnes wrote:A mass migration out of California would be delightful if it took a westerly direction.
So you never partake of almonds, strawberries, movies, space/computer technology? You must be a virgin?
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27346
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:37:11

Plant, look up the word 'imminent' and get back to me.

And in any case:
growth has slowed in recent decades.
Over the past 20 years, California has experienced its slowest rates of growth ever recorded and an unprecedented migration of residents to other states...

about 1.7 million more people left California for other states than came to California from other states.


http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=259
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 17489
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:44:54

Newfie, I found this:

California farm and closely related processing industries employ 7.3 percent of the state’s private sector labor force and account for 5.6 percent of the state labor income.
I imagine that migration will be south, to Mexico.
Last edited by pstarr on Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:48:35, edited 1 time in total.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27346
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:48:04

As noted, other than some isolated instances, this year's water situation is not creating wholesale waterless-ness and migration out. If we have another year like we did last year, though, much of CA will outta-water by next October. Here are the numbers:

I use Shasta Lake as my "go-by". Its capacity levels generally matched CA's other major reservoirs this year, percentage wise. It started last year before the rains with 1.7 million AF of water. It recovered 700,000 AF over the winter to 2.4 million AF of storage. It drew down 1.3 million AF of its capacity, even though it cut off water 100% to just about everyone south of Sacramento and cut 20-50% of normal allotments to those north of Sacramento. If it refills the same amount this year and does the same releases next year, it will drop to below 500,000 AF of water - this is 10% of its capacity - essentially a mud-puddle and would be repeated throughout the state. All recreational water activities will go away. The ski industry will collapse, with most resorts probably going bankrupt. Millions of acres of ag land will have been fallow for several years, slowly reverting to dust. Another year of heavy overdrafting on the aquifers for those ag and muni's with pumps will suck some aquifers dry.

The Metro SF Bay Area and LA will be fine. Their economies are still booming and they have several water options. The central coast and all of inland CA is another story. Wineries will lose their crops...goodbye CA wines. A huge amount of inland CA industry exists to support the ag business. Gone. Many of the Bay Area's lower income workers actually live inland and commute because Bay Area housing is too pricey. But inland water gone, where will they live? Where will they work?

CA avoided disaster this year with a "March miracle" of rain that gave the reservoirs at least a bit of a slug of water to limp us though this summer. It will take Dec, Jan, Feb, AND March miracles this year to avoid disaster yet again.

Here is a link to a 10-year chart Shasta Lake's storage, for a graphic of recent past...

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/jspplot/jspPlotServlet.jsp?sensor_no=3636&end=10%2F23%2F2014+13%3A06&geom=huge&interval=3650&cookies=cdec01
hvacman
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 594
Joined: Sun 01 Dec 2013, 12:19:53

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Oily Stuff » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:58:00

Dear California:

If you folks need to flee your beautiful state please do not come to Texas. We are full up here and have no more vacancies. Real estate is going thru the roof and traffic jams around Houston are almost as bad as on the 405. Our baseball teams suck. It has not rained in Texas the past 5 years either; you folks don't know what drought is. Besides that, Texas is ugly; there are no trees, just tumbleweeds and cactus. All we can grow back here is rattlesnakes and they sure do get big. It gets so hot here in the summer you can fry eggs on the hood of your BWM's and the humidity never drops below 90%. The Gulf of Mexico is muddy all the time and there is no surf. We don't have a lot of movie stars to gawk at. We drill lots of oil wells here and the stinkin' things are everywhere. Because of frac'ing we are even starting to get earthquakes. We don't have mud slides because Texas is as flat as a tortilla but we darn sure get our share of wildfires and tornadoes that can pick you up hurl you over into Louisiana in a heartbeat. Hurricanes are a hoot. Lots of Republicans live in Texas too. You won't like it here.

May I suggest Kansas?
Oily Stuff
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 122
Joined: Wed 17 Apr 2013, 13:24:43
Location: Texas

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 15:59:32

dohboi wrote: growth has slowed in recent decades.


The math is interesting on this. As California grew to have a population of 33 MILLION people, the population growth appears to slow because the base population is so large, i.e. adding a million people over the last three years looks like only a 8% increase, while adding 100,000 people in North Dakota looks like a 20% increase.

But that doesn't change the fact that the population of California added 5-10 times more people than North Dakota, or the rest of the "fastest" growing states, when you look at the absolute numbers and not just the percentages.

Theres no way around it----the population of California is still growing strongly. Adding a million people every 3-4 years is roughly the equivalent of adding a city larger than San Francisco to California everything 3-4 years. :idea:
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 21410
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 16:01:51

If drought continues steady for the next few years, based on the reserve decline rates of the past few years can someone here project when average capacity will fall as low as Sao Paolo's at right now around 3%?
Do not seek the truth, only cease to cherish opinions.
jupiters_release
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1260
Joined: Mon 10 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 16:35:56

Yes, the São Paulo situation is interesting. There are some parallels to the situation here namely the government doing jack all to help mitigate the situation. There we have mass deforestation which seems to exacerbate the drought. Here we have fracking and other heavily water water reliant industries. Neither government wants to fess up and say that the development and growth needs to stop.

We would do well to watch as events unfold there and learn, although I doubt we will.

I have quipped previously that Californians will migrate to Detroit. Perhaps I'm not so far off, if we can control our run off into the lakes that is.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 10699
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby ritter » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 17:16:35

Nice summary, hvacman.

As I've said elsewhere, California is a large and varied state both from its water infrastructure to its precipitation. The north is vastly different from the south. Much of the southern San Joaquin Valley is in trouble and is likely the first to fail as they are smaller, poor communities that rely on wells and the aquifers are failing (Kern County). Mass migration won't happen for some time but the system is definitely groaning. If we don't get good rainfall this winter, there very well may be a small "dust bowl" occurring in that area.
ritter
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 858
Joined: Fri 14 Oct 2005, 02:00:00

Next

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 22 guests