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Making Tesla pt. 3

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 06:26:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Newfie wrote:There is the assumption that humanity will reduce energy use before energy runs out. I’ve seen no supporting evidence for that.

But there is LOTS of evidence that economics "works", especially microeconomics. (For example, the law of supply and demand). So if energy (I presume you are implying fossil fuel energy) reaches a state of significant shortage, much less comes anywhere NEAR "running out", then if it is still highly valued, the price will skyrocket -- and less will be affordable.

The reason we've seen no evidence humanity will reduce energy consumption IF it becomes scarce, is that aside from brief exceptional periods where prices spiked, despite all the false claims of diminishing supply, etc. -- fossil fuel energy has been more and more plentiful over time -- in terms of global production.

In terms of what I see relative to big energy trends, hopefully, by the time fossil fuels truly become relatively scarce and expensive, we'll have strongly turned the corner on using electric transport, so it will likely be an orderly, decades long, transition.

Just like, say, the gradual transition of computers from a few, expensive, large machines, to hundreds of millions (or even billions) of relatively small, cheap, tiny machines -- it took roughly 5 decades from the time mainframes became relatively plentiful for business, i.e. roughly the late 60's.


As energy becomes scarce the cost of alternatives will sky rocket along with everything else.

You have a logical disconnect in your argument. Lin agree we won’t look for alternatives until energy becomes expensive. But then you say that by that time we will “hopefully” have turned the corner on alternatives.

Also “supply and demand” is not working. For one because we now have a virtually unlimited money supply, that completely skews the process. If the Feds has not effected quantitative easing then tight money would have made energy expensive. Sure there would have been pain in 2009, but the economy could have adjusted to realities.

Essentially the Fed has trained us that they can protect us from negative consequences. They can for limited circumstances and limited time only. I agree we should be developing alternative energies, but also conserving foremost. I’m not seeing any sufficient public awareness. Look at the yellow jacket protests in France.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 06:42:06

As energy becomes scarce the cost of alternatives will sky rocket along with everything else.
As the price of alternatives rises the competition to provide them will create increased supply which in turn will moderate the price of those alternatives. We are already exploring and developing alternatives from wind farms to solar PV installations and the only thing restricting the process is the present adequate supply of oil.
Often the alternatives end up being much cheaper and more useful then the original product. Whale oil to gasoline. telegraphs to smart phones etc.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 06:47:56

vtsnowedin wrote:
As energy becomes scarce the cost of alternatives will sky rocket along with everything else.
As the price of alternatives rises the competition to provide them will create increased supply which in turn will moderate the price of those alternatives. We are already exploring and developing alternatives from wind farms to solar PV installations and the only thing restricting the process is the present adequate supply of oil.
Often the alternatives end up being much cheaper and more useful then the original product. Whale oil to gasoline. telegraphs to smart phones etc.


Your reply does not address the quote.

When energy becomes dear the price of development and manufacture will then restrict alternatives development.

I’m not saying we should not do it, I’m saying our skewed financial system is suppressing it. While it’s a nice dream I don’t see it happening.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 07:44:44

We can't escape the fact that pound for pound, fossil fuels contain more energy than do batteries. They are both chemical batteries but when it comes to doing useful work, we built our whole economy on that difference.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 10:44:02

Newfie wrote:
When energy becomes dear the price of development and manufacture will then restrict alternatives development.

I’m not saying we should not do it, I’m saying our skewed financial system is suppressing it. While it’s a nice dream I don’t see it happening.

I see that as two separate and distinct arguments.
First higher energy prices may restrict alternative development but not halt it as quite a bit of our manufacturing energy is already renewable, such as Canadian hydro-power. The increased demand for alternatives will raise prices and more then cover the cost of building them without the use of fossil fuels or more likely a rapid decline in the proportion of fossil fuels used.
The problems with the financial system is a whole other kettle of fish that affects everything not just the energy market. I expect inflation and cutbacks in benefit payments in our future as that unwinds but expect the energy industry to carry on even if they have to take payment in live chickens.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 11:04:39

Cog wrote:We can't escape the fact that pound for pound, fossil fuels contain more energy than do batteries. They are both chemical batteries but when it comes to doing useful work, we built our whole economy on that difference.

While the energy density of fossil fuels is convenient when fueling up ships and aircraft etc. there is nothing magic about the density and we can and will adapt to less energy dense arrangements when we have to just like our ancestors did during the age of sail.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 12:48:37

We did not go backwards in energy use. We went from the age of sail to the age of coal and steam power.

There is some self delusion going on here that we will simply substitute battery power for fossil fuel power, and all will be well. No we won't.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 15:06:56

Cog wrote:We did not go backwards in energy use. We went from the age of sail to the age of coal and steam power.

There is some self delusion going on here that we will simply substitute battery power for fossil fuel power, and all will be well. No we won't.

But there are far more options than that. Many things are getting FAR more efficient via technology. That can continue, especially if higher energy prices strongly motivate that effort via profit margins by doing things smarter. Look how much energy simply using LED lighting can save the US in a year vs. using old lighting technologies.

And believe it or not, we CAN live with less, if push comes to shove. I would argue that in some ways we are. We don't all drive around in very heavy all steel cars now, in first world car fleets. (The CO2 taxes you so hate would certainly help this situation re the many US idiots that run around in giant SUV's and trucks with no good reason to do so).

There will be nothing "simple" about it, and it will be a MANY-faceted adaptation, over many decades. Same as it ever was, but far more incentives if/when FF prices truly escalate meaningfully, instead of just short term spikes.

And if we all have to do with far less things like fighter jets, which are becoming bankruptcy machines as their cost escalates -- that can only be a good thing in the big picture. What if there were no big wars because no one wanted to pay for them?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 20:47:04

Outcast_Searcher wrote:What if there were no big wars because no one wanted to pay for them?
Don't hold your breath on that one. They'd have us fighting with slings and wooden arrows before they gave up war.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 10:40:46

The thread started long ago on Making Tesla profitable.

Now for the second quarter they are in profit, but less than analysts expected.
Tesla made a profit of $139.5m (£106.4m) in the three months to 31 December - avoiding a loss for a second quarter in a row.

While lower than expected, the gain still marked an improvement for the electric car-maker, which has routinely reported shortfalls in recent years.

Tesla credited strong demand for its Model 3, manufacturing improvements and recent cost cuts for the turnaround.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47062146

More detailed results here LINK
I haven't studied the report in detail, but the electricity storage grew almost three fold according to their report. Sales of power equipment are still low but they have a huge amount under "assets", so I need to figure out just how they are doing in helping the world to switch from fossil fuels to solar energy.
Last edited by Tanada on Thu 31 Jan 2019, 11:30:36, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 17:38:46

EdwinSm wrote:The thread started long ago on Making Tesla profitable.

Now for the second quarter they are in profit, but less than analysts expected.
Tesla made a profit of $139.5m (£106.4m) in the three months to 31 December - avoiding a loss for a second quarter in a row.

While lower than expected, the gain still marked an improvement for the electric car-maker, which has routinely reported shortfalls in recent years.

Tesla credited strong demand for its Model 3, manufacturing improvements and recent cost cuts for the turnaround.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47062146

More detailed results here LINK
I haven't studied the report in detail, but the electricity storage grew almost three fold according to their report. Sales of power equipment are still low but they have a huge amount under "assets", so I need to figure out just how they are doing in helping the world to switch from fossil fuels to solar energy.

For cars, the big question for Tesla in the short term is whether their cash flows will allow them to grow the way they plan. Such growth would take MANY $billions in capital for infrastructure, plants, inventory, developing new models, etc. Unless their profits grow more robust (uncertain, re Musk's recent letter to employees which talked about needing luck to make a profit in 1H'19), much of those plans will have to be delayed, vs. the aggressive Musk timelines.

No worry, re the EV industry though. The competitors continue to ramp up, and that is accelerating. For example:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/31/automak ... tions.html

Of course, doomers will say this portends more doom, since there will be some financial losses. I say this portends far more EV's, since the automakers are clearly getting serious about producing them. Oh, and most have lots of ICE sales in the mean time to drive plenty of needed cash flow.

...

As for the electricity storage market, clearly real progress is being made on a commercial scale, by Tesla and others. It's still a niche for the home user, as it's still quite expensive. Tesla, for example, has done little with the solar tile roofs thus far, except for testing.

Green energy is progressing, but the current base is small. It's going to take time to have a significant impact, overall. It is fun to watch, however.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 04 Feb 2019, 06:50:56

baha wrote:BTW - I don't like solar tiles. They are too complicated and expensive. They are not better than conventional panels so I don't support them. Tesla needs to move on.

Thank you for that insight.
I have been watching this industry develop for some forty years now. The tiles seemed like a logical progression when I first read about them but as often happens the hype gets ahead of the reality.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 17:30:02

pstarr wrote:35 Pounds" Of Dirt Trapped In Tesla Model 3 Reveals Stunning Design Flaw
"The blog points out that Tesla has "often been accused of designing cars for the Californian climate" and that water, dirt and sand used to de-ice roads in colder climates are susceptible to getting trapped in the underbody of Model 3 cars. "
"Eric Bolduc, who owns a body shop in Quebec has "found significant amounts of sand and dirt accumulating in the underbody panel at the back of every Model 3 he has worked on so far."


Fanbois will, of course, say such flaws don't matter. Obviously how much it matters will depend on things like how much road salt is getting trapped in there in the winter.

But Tesla fans are claiming that Teslas will last several decades AND require little maintenance. And yet, in the real world, lots of these weird problems are showing up. I say weird, because mature car makers have learned to design to mitigate them.

One of the statements from the mechanic was that this problem from no adequate undercarriage drain might be causing the "rear bumper falls off in a hard rain" problem, for example.

I don't think the cumulative effect from all such problems, including the ones as yet not widely known will help fulfill the forecast of a several decade trouble free life.

...

In the past, the press tended to ignore such flaws, and the problems fixing them. No more. With Tesla shipping decent volumes, quality and service are expected to compete with the serious car makers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 18:00:13

Outcast_Searcher wrote:In the past, the press tended to ignore such flaws, and the problems fixing them. No more. With Tesla shipping decent volumes, quality and service are expected to compete with the serious car makers.


I am sure that most Tesla Model S owners in Quebec and Ontario put their cars in storage for the winter. It just doesn't make sense to expose an expensive sports car to winter driving conditions. I expect that most Model 3 owners would plan on driving their vehicles year round. The big automobile manufacturers have a lot of experience building vehicles that are durable and reliable under a wide range of environmental conditions and they will spend billions to design an entirely new vehicle. If Tesla can achieve similar durability and reliability when they have a lot less experience manufacturing cars that would be great, but if they can't I will not be surprised.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 07 Mar 2019, 18:28:57

I would of course think that such flaws are important and need to be corrected ASAP but can't see how that could not be accomplished. If they get the basics of the car down to a functional model fine tuning the durability of the chassis and running gear is a side issue that needs to be addressed but is not a game changer. Same issue for wobbly wheels and metal fatigue in the drive line.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 06:22:08

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