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Making Tesla pt. 3

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 08:13:20

pstarr wrote:What good is chess, you moron?

NOW you have gone too far!
You should be banned ignored terminated , stapled bent and mutilated!!! :twisted:
Always thought you were a checkers player!!
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 09:36:08

pstarr is not wrong about EV's, nor is he wrong about what happens when global oil depletion occurs. The only disagreement between the cornies and the doomers is to the timing of that event. The conclusion of a destroyed global economic system, based on inexpensive and cheap oil, are not in dispute.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 10:16:05

Cog wrote: The conclusion of a destroyed global economic system, based on inexpensive and cheap oil, are not in dispute.

I'll dispute that.
The end of cheap and abundant oil will cause disruption, adaptation, innovation, conservation, and probably wars over the last large supplies. But it will not destroy the economic system only exercise the fundamentals of that system.
On the war front : If I were Russia I would be very worried about sitting on a large chunk of the worlds undeveloped oil resources with oil hungry China on the right hand and Europe on the left.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 10:23:42

EV's are not scalable for either transportation or for heavy construction. Energy density has not changed. We need oil/gas for a modern industrial society to function period.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 11:07:11

Has anyone calculated the size of PV panel you would need to replace all existing FF usage?

Someone check my math please.

Humanities annual usage 168 terrawatts / hour. 168x 10-12th.

Solar panels produce about 15 watts/sq foot. But only under direct sunlight. Let’s assume they get 6 hours of production per day or their 24 hour average output is 3 watts/sq foot ( derating a bit for clouds and such).

So that’s about 56,000,000,000,000 square feet of solar panel.

2 million square miles. 1,300,000,000 acres. 1.3 billion acres. Or almost 10% of our habital land. But there is plenty of desert.

Now that’s about 0.17 acre per person, the Chinese have 0.19 acre of aerable land per person.

"The total land surface area of Earth is about 57,308,738 square miles, of which about 33% is desert and about 24% is mountainous. Subtracting this uninhabitable 57% (32,665,981 mi2) from the total land area leaves 24,642,757 square miles or 15.77 billion acres of habitable land."
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 12:33:11

Newfie wrote:Has anyone calculated the size of PV panel you would need to replace all existing FF usage?

Someone check my math please.

Humanities annual usage 168 terrawatts / hour. 168x 10-12th.

Solar panels produce about 15 watts/sq foot. But only under direct sunlight. Let’s assume they get 6 hours of production per day or their 24 hour average output is 3 watts/sq foot ( derating a bit for clouds and such).

So that’s about 56,000,000,000,000 square feet of solar panel.

2 million square miles. 1,300,000,000 acres. 1.3 billion acres. Or almost 10% of our habital land. But there is plenty of desert.

Now that’s about 0.17 acre per person, the Chinese have 0.19 acre of aerable land per person.

"The total land surface area of Earth is about 57,308,738 square miles, of which about 33% is desert and about 24% is mountainous. Subtracting this uninhabitable 57% (32,665,981 mi2) from the total land area leaves 24,642,757 square miles or 15.77 billion acres of habitable land."
Assuming the 168tw/h is correct the rest of your math seems reasonable for discussion purposes. So two million sq. miles of panels. That is about 56% of the area of the Sahara desert where your production figures would be considerably higher. I have to wonder how many square feet of south facing roof there exists from the tropics to the mid latitudes?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 12:38:18

Cog wrote:EV's are not scalable for either transportation or for heavy construction. Energy density has not changed. We need oil/gas for a modern industrial society to function period.

You are assuming that the world needs to consume energy at the gross rate the US presently does. And much of the largest construction equipment is already electric and conveyor belts (electric) can often move material miles for less then diesel trucks can.
Oil and gas is the cheapest way today but that does not mean it is the only way or that the world will end without it.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 14:05:27

pstarr wrote:What good is chess, you moron?

What good is knowledge?

The way you act in your collective body of posts -- you have no clue. Look in the mirror.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Tue 04 Dec 2018, 14:19:13, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 14:17:06

Cog wrote:EV's are not scalable for either transportation or for heavy construction. Energy density has not changed. We need oil/gas for a modern industrial society to function period.

Incorrect, re scalability. The energy density of batteries is increasing, just as the cost is decreasing.

It's just happening gradually. Meanwhile, work on serious improvements like solid state batteries continues. I've seen some articles opine that the big Japanese car companies are likely waiting for the advent of this technology at practical EV scale to enter the BEV fray.

https://www.powerelectronics.com/automo ... te-battery

Oil and gas aren't going away suddenly, no matter how often the peak oilers spread such FUD. There is no reason society can't adapt gradually. And if some high end processes need to be done differently, so be it. Just because the future of industrialized society will be different because of necessity, does NOT mean it can't exist. Just look how different things are today vs. just 50 years ago -- and a lot of that is due to practical (i.e. competitive and resource) necessity.

Look how much less power and resources a high end smart phone today uses vs. a late 60's mainframe -- and yet producing similar power. And the world can't adapt? Nonsense. Oh, and better batteries are a BIG part of why that smart phone is practical today.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 14:59:45

pstarr wrote:Still beating the same dead horse after all these years. Laughable. And sad


Facts are not dead horses and they hold up well over time. Unlike much of what you put forth here daily.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 15:23:58

vtsnowedin wrote:
Cog wrote:EV's are not scalable for either transportation or for heavy construction. Energy density has not changed. We need oil/gas for a modern industrial society to function period.

You are assuming that the world needs to consume energy at the gross rate the US presently does. And much of the largest construction equipment is already electric and conveyor belts (electric) can often move material miles for less then diesel trucks can.
Oil and gas is the cheapest way today but that does not mean it is the only way or that the world will end without it.


It’s not an assumption, he is stating where we are.

There is the assumption that humanity will reduce energy use before energy runs out. I’ve seen no supporting evidence for that.

And there is much reason to reduce energy use ASAP in order to limit climate change.

The evidence points that we are not cutting back in the face of peak oil and climate change.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 16:00:03

Newfie wrote:There is the assumption that humanity will reduce energy use before energy runs out. I’ve seen no supporting evidence for that.

But there is LOTS of evidence that economics "works", especially microeconomics. (For example, the law of supply and demand). So if energy (I presume you are implying fossil fuel energy) reaches a state of significant shortage, much less comes anywhere NEAR "running out", then if it is still highly valued, the price will skyrocket -- and less will be affordable.

The reason we've seen no evidence humanity will reduce energy consumption IF it becomes scarce, is that aside from brief exceptional periods where prices spiked, despite all the false claims of diminishing supply, etc. -- fossil fuel energy has been more and more plentiful over time -- in terms of global production.

In terms of what I see relative to big energy trends, hopefully, by the time fossil fuels truly become relatively scarce and expensive, we'll have strongly turned the corner on using electric transport, so it will likely be an orderly, decades long, transition.

Just like, say, the gradual transition of computers from a few, expensive, large machines, to hundreds of millions (or even billions) of relatively small, cheap, tiny machines -- it took roughly 5 decades from the time mainframes became relatively plentiful for business, i.e. roughly the late 60's.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 16:48:54

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Just like, say, the gradual transition of computers from a few, expensive, large machines, to hundreds of millions (or even billions) of relatively small, cheap, tiny machines -- it took roughly 5 decades from the time mainframes became relatively plentiful for business, i.e. roughly the late 60's.

I wouldn't call the transition to computers gradual. I do expect that the next fifty years will bring about even more change and advancement then the last fifty did, not that I'll be around to see the end of it. I went to college using a slide rule and the space race was still putting dogs and monkeys into space. We have come a long way but have a long way to go.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 16:55:25

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Just like, say, the gradual transition of computers from a few, expensive, large machines, to hundreds of millions (or even billions) of relatively small, cheap, tiny machines -- it took roughly 5 decades from the time mainframes became relatively plentiful for business, i.e. roughly the late 60's.

I wouldn't call the transition to computers gradual.

Neither would I, and I didn't say that. I would, however, call the long journey from a relative handful of very expensive mainframes at businesses and universities, etc. to things like a big network of computers in virtually every modern car, the plethora of cellphones globally, including powerful smart phones, the huge number of cheap and powerful game consoles, nav systems, etc. using relatively powerful computers gradual -- at least to the extent that it took several decades. (Just like I expect the journey to EV's being solidly dominant as the global transport meme, to be a gradual, decades long journey -- which is what I was (clearly, IMO) implying.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 17:01:36

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:And much of the largest construction equipment is already electric and conveyor belts (electric) can often move material miles for less then diesel trucks can.

Still beating the same dead horse after all these years. Laughable. And sad

CNBC is now discussing 'peak Apple'. Tip O' Iceberg to ya matey ha ha ha. It's really about peak technology. Sry, but no Singularity in sight (:

Just because in your reality-challenged mind, observations about real world tech. progress equate to babble-speak about "the singularity", doesn't mean that they truly do.

Do you ever have valid reality-based points to make? Or only over-the-top made up FUD?

Speaking of laughable and sad, your commentary grows less credible, month after month. Welcome to true SL territory. Does it make you proud?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 17:58:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Just like, say, the gradual transition of computers .

I wouldn't call the transition to computers gradual.

Neither would I, and I didn't say that.

You most certainly did say that.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 01:07:54

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Just like, say, the gradual transition of computers .

I wouldn't call the transition to computers gradual.

Neither would I, and I didn't say that.

You most certainly did say that.

So now it's semantics games? Fine. I still consider several decades gradual. And I was describing the change in computer power -- not the adoption of computers by everyday people. Clearly re the PC, that happened quite quickly, at least in the first world.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 03:37:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So now it's semantics games? Fine. I still consider several decades gradual. And I was describing the change in computer power -- not the adoption of computers by everyday people. Clearly re the PC, that happened quite quickly, at least in the first world.

You chose the word gradual but it does come down to what one considers "gradual" My point was and is that the complete transformation of our engineering and accounting in just fifty years was an avalanche of change that many predicted we would be unable to cope with mentally. From the adding machine to the desktop computer, from the carburetor to computer controlled fuel injection, sextant and chronograph to GPS navigation ,transit and tape to total station GPS surveying etc. etc. Our world and how we accomplish work has been completely changed in what is a blink of the eye compare to the rate of progress experienced in previous centuries.
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