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LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 23 Nov 2021, 17:48:34

rangerone314 wrote:In the US at least, better zoning or less would help.

It'd be nice to be able to drive to a grocery store or clothing store in a golf cart, but for a lot of people that wouldn't work because... zoning.

Have areas with residential areas mixed in with farmer's markets and other merchants. Make things more walkable and bike-able (?), and use small vehicles like EV golf cars on smaller roads (using less asphalt).


Yup......and some suburbs and retirement communities in the USA are set up just as you suggest...with bike paths and lots of people getting around in golf carts.



Even better is the way they do it in Europe.

Don't use a golf cart.....just walk to the market.

Bring the farmer's markets right into the city so everything is walkable.

When I lived in Europe for a year there was a huge regional farmer's market every saturday that filled up the whole downtown of my university town with local cheese, meats, vegetables. And there were jugglers and buskers performing. It was a party every weekend.

In fact, in Europe they try to use vehicles as little as possible. If you want to go somewhere in the city, take a bus or a tram.

And if you want to travel cross-country take the train.

And it can all be made electric, if the lithium supply is large enough.

Electric trains and trams, EV buses, and foot power.

People can have a very nice life style without using fossil fuels.....if they've got the energy supplies and enough lithium batteries.

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 23 Nov 2021, 19:41:13

rangerone314 wrote:In the US at least, better zoning or less would help.

It'd be nice to be able to drive to a grocery store or clothing store in a golf cart, but for a lot of people that wouldn't work because... zoning.


It's called the psychology of previous investment. Huge companies that for half a century or more have been building roads, and greasing the palms of local politicians are in lockstep with city planners and engineers who want to keep doing it the way they always have. Old people in charge, old people who are stubborn and unwilling to change.

It's what made GM and Ford so unprofitable, they made big gas guzzling autos for 50 years or so, then along came the Japanese and said "Look, these smaller cars make more sense" But the old stuffed shirts at the big 3 couldn't change, wouldn't change, they just wanted to see things out and get their pensions. When they finally started making cars like the Japanese they were garbage, just smaller gutless versions of what they had been making for ever.

These big systems can never adapt, they just have to Die. One day the grid will die too but there won't be any micro grids to replace it. It will be too late then, the power base will have gone but at least the executives running the power companies will have gotten away with healthy pensions. A lot of people don't believe that of course, they talk and talk about transitions and new technology but I have been hearing that for 50 years and it's led to Nothing! Every year we deploy more solar globally and every year we consume more electricity than what was installed. It's a joke.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Pops » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 11:27:48

rangerone314 wrote:IIt'd be nice to be able to drive to a grocery store or clothing store in a golf cart, but for a lot of people that wouldn't work because... zoning.

Have areas with residential areas mixed in with farmer's markets and other merchants. Make things more walkable and bike-able (?), and use small vehicles like EV golf cars on smaller roads (using less asphalt).

Low speed vehicles are OK with the Feds and several states allow them specifically, most allow them on roads with 35MPH speed limits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-speed_vehicle
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 17:50:30

theluckycountry wrote:
It's what made GM and Ford so unprofitable, they made big gas guzzling autos for 50 years or so, then along came the Japanese and said "Look, these smaller cars make more sense" But the old stuffed shirts at the big 3 couldn't change, wouldn't change, they just wanted to see things out and get their pensions. When they finally started making cars like the Japanese they were garbage, just smaller gutless versions of what they had been making for ever.


I think it was more of an example of "nothing fails like success". The US pioneered mass production of automobiles and led in innovation for a long period of time. During WW2 the industry shifted to producing the large number of military vehicles required to win the war. The war devastated automobile production in Europe and Japan further cementing the US as the dominant automobile manufacture in the world. Unfortunately, such success led to complacency and the previous focus on improving build quality and reducing costs was lost. A captive market enabled the manufacturers to make good profits and the autoworker unions made sure they got their cut too! Starting from nothing the Japanese adopted a policy of continuous improvement which eventually enabled them to produce cars of higher quality at lower cost. There was no way the US manufacturers could catchup overnight because too many people in their organizations were resistant to changes that would negatively impact their jobs. The transition has greatly reduced the number of autoworker jobs and reduced salaries and benefits. Even today, labour costs make it pretty much impossible for a US manufacturer to profitably build good quality small cars.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 13:54:35

It's 3:41 am Sunday morning here in my small rural town and in about an hour I'll be off on my Low Speed pushbike to get some exercise. It's the one day and time of week I feel safe on the 100km/h major back roads around here. During the week I'll ride too but just in a staggered pattern around the town, avoiding the main roads, which are the best because they have few hills.

For me it's just exercise, but if I had to do it as a necessity, to shop or get to work, I'd be putting my life in danger every day. Our word is built for the motor car and truck and when those go the roads, which could have lasted 100 years, will be tattered wrecks. I'm grateful I'm old, in my 60's now, and wont have to live through the worst of the collapse. Lithium is fine if you can afford it now but it will be be long gone before the oil I believe.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 23:25:34

theluckycountry wrote:For me it's just exercise, but if I had to do it as a necessity, to shop or get to work, I'd be putting my life in danger every day.


Isn't that why you have the snazzy motorcycle? No point in getting killed pedaling when you can outrun most anything on the tarmac with that nice, "every doomer needs one" BMW.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 28 Nov 2021, 04:41:40

LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Tough luck.
Largest deposit on Earth are in Afghanistan and they will go to new Afghan ally - China.

Americans need to learn one thing - to have a stable empire you need to export prosperity rather than value system and build relations base on trade rather than military threats.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Doly » Sat 04 Dec 2021, 10:58:57

Lithium is fine if you can afford it now but it will be be long gone before the oil I believe.


Lithium is a light metal and there are plenty of supplies of it. The issue with lithium isn't the ore itself. It's extracting the metal from it, which is a pretty polluting process. And battery manufacturing isn't entirely straightforward, either. The question isn't whether there is enough lithium (there's plenty), but whether there is enough lithium at a cheap enough price to sustain widespread EV usage.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 Dec 2021, 21:38:59

Doly wrote:Lithium is a light metal and there are plenty of supplies of it. The issue with lithium isn't the ore itself. It's extracting the metal from it, which is a pretty polluting process. And battery manufacturing isn't entirely straightforward, either. The question isn't whether there is enough lithium (there's plenty), but whether there is enough lithium at a cheap enough price to sustain widespread EV usage.


Plenty of lithium?

Thats debatable.

Based on the models of the currently known deposits and projected demand for EVs, the current supply will start to run out by ca. 2050.

how-long-will-the-lithium-supply-last

And another thing to worry about....a big part of the known lithium supply is in China.

Image
Imagine a future world where China controls the global market for lithium!

Cheers!
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 16 Dec 2021, 07:15:12

Before I would convert Aircraft carriers into floating refineries I would consider that total military fuel consumption ,land sea ,and air, amounts to some 300,000 barrels per day or 1.7 percent of the 18.1 million BPD of the USA daily consumption. There are bigger fish to fry including the 9% of homes and businesses that heat with distillate oil (diesel) or propane. About 41 % already heat with electric heat pumps and 50% with natural gas.
That 41% falls prey to the coal fired electricity argument just like the EVs but as has been said the future use of coal to generate that electricity can and probably will change.
But political will and public sentiment is moving to EVs and lithium is going to be in demand and as we become aware of the dangers of depending on China I see development of American controlled lithium mines as a good investment. I bought a sliver of ABL (Albemarle corporation) ten months ago and it is up 54% to date and last month I bought LAC and LTHM but both of those( all three actually) are down for the month. But I am still up 5% to date on the group and I expect patience will pay off in time.
If I had more free cash I would increase my stake in all three while the prices are on a dip.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Doly » Thu 16 Dec 2021, 17:18:01

Based on the models of the currently known deposits and projected demand for EVs, the current supply will start to run out by ca. 2050.


Batteries need to be disposed properly, anyway, so recycling the lithium would be quite feasible.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Dec 2021, 17:56:54

Batteries need to be disposed properly, anyway, so recycling the lithium would be quite feasible.


Yes....In an ideal world lithium batteries would be recycled.

However, back here in the real world we all actually live in only a very small percentage of lithium batteries are recycled today.

recycling-lithium

There are various reasons for this but probably the main one is that its very expensive and energy intensive to recycle Li batteries.

Its just cheaper to cart them off to a landfill, and thats where 95% of them wind up now.

Image
Please god.....don't let this dumpster fire get down to all those lithium batteries buried in there

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 17 Dec 2021, 08:29:49

While the little quarter sized lithium batteries in your watch or phone don't get recycled much at present by the time your 75KW battery in your Tesla needs replacement it will surly get recycled and it will probably be against the law not to.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 17 Dec 2021, 12:12:48

vtsnowedin wrote:While the little quarter sized lithium batteries in your watch or phone don't get recycled much at present by the time your 75KW battery in your Tesla needs replacement it will surly get recycled and it will probably be against the law not to.


Did Plant really volunteer that a Tesla was indeed their Alaska EV? I've been asking for months, and Plant seems to be embarrassed about claiming they had an EV at all. Let alone talking about why Plant bought it in the first place, what with the raging fear of all things EVs and fires in the first place.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Doly » Fri 17 Dec 2021, 14:24:07

Its just cheaper to cart them off to a landfill, and thats where 95% of them wind up now.


Right now it may be cheaper, but if there are issues in the future with a limited supply of lithium, the economics are likely to change.

Anyway, that's assuming that some other battery technology, not based on lithium, doesn't come to dominate the market.

And that's also assuming that EVs are the success that people are thinking they will be. It's quite possible that they won't be. It's even possible that car usage may decrease dramatically, if cars become more and more expensive.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 Dec 2021, 17:39:53

Doly wrote:that's ..... assuming that EVs are the success that people are thinking they will be. It's quite possible that they won't be. It's even possible that car usage may decrease dramatically, if cars become more and more expensive.


Of course.

And its possible aliens may land and give us a lifetime supply of dilithium crystals.

Image
The dilithium crystals are going to blow......or is it just another EV battery undergoing spontaneous combustion???!!!!!????

All kinds of things are possible......but not very likely.

Personally I find it much more interesting to stick to the facts and to figure out what is actually going on now, and what that means for what is most likely to happen in the future.

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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 01:21:34

Doly wrote:
Its just cheaper to cart them off to a landfill, and thats where 95% of them wind up now.


Right now it may be cheaper, but if there are issues in the future with a limited supply of lithium, the economics are likely to change.

Anyway, that's assuming that some other battery technology, not based on lithium, doesn't come to dominate the market.

And that's also assuming that EVs are the success that people are thinking they will be. It's quite possible that they won't be. It's even possible that car usage may decrease dramatically, if cars become more and more expensive.

First, it's pretty clear that EV's are going to be a big success. Remember, it doesn't have to be a BEV to be an EV. For a long time, people might want a balance of the best of both worlds (no charging needed for long trips, and no gasoline for most city driving) and go with PHEV's, for example. Especially, until batteries get cheaper.

In the end, the primary driving force will almost certainly be economics. When AGW gets bad enough, punative gas taxes will accelerate the transition away from pure ICE's. (They already have this in places like Western Europe, but the US has strongly resisted this).

The supposed big bugaboo from even a few years ago, range, is clearly rapidly becoming a non-issue for a good 90% of drivers.

Once efficient and reliable BEV's cost less than an ICE counterpart AND cost much less for fuel, the economics will tell the tale. I think that happens by 2030, given how many companies are hard at work on things like battery research, and making real progress (LFP and the Tesla 4680 as two examples).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 19 Dec 2021, 01:33:50

yellowcanoe wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:
It's what made GM and Ford so unprofitable, they made big gas guzzling autos for 50 years or so, then along came the Japanese and said "Look, these smaller cars make more sense" But the old stuffed shirts at the big 3 couldn't change, wouldn't change, they just wanted to see things out and get their pensions. When they finally started making cars like the Japanese they were garbage, just smaller gutless versions of what they had been making for ever.


I think it was more of an example of "nothing fails like success". The US pioneered mass production of automobiles and led in innovation for a long period of time.

...

Even today, labour costs make it pretty much impossible for a US manufacturer to profitably build good quality small cars.

I think a lot of the problem was management, not the workers. Perhaps with a big assist by things like UAW intransigence.

I had an uncle who was a mid-level manager at Ford. In the mid-80's, he was talking about how bad Ford quality was being impacted by upper management insist that they shake up the entire organization of car engineering.

So, to use his example, say you have an engineer who designs lights. This person knows tons about optics, reflectivity, bulbs, etc. -- all critical to making effective lights. But now management wants him/her to also make seats (completely different skill set), etc, and doesn't want to hear about any real world issues.

Given how REALLY bad a lot of the Ford cars designed/built over the next decade or so were (from friends' cars, rental experiences, etc), I can certainly imagine things like light engineers designing seats helping screw them up.

And then of course all the recalls don't exactly help profits.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby Doly » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 16:50:02

Once efficient and reliable BEV's cost less than an ICE counterpart AND cost much less for fuel, the economics will tell the tale.


I wouldn't assume that EVs will ever cost less than an ICE counterpart. Not saying that it can't happen, but from what I have read, the technical challenges to making cheap EVs are pretty serious.
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Re: LITHIUM IS THE NEW OIL

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Dec 2021, 17:52:51

Doly wrote:
Once efficient and reliable BEV's cost less than an ICE counterpart AND cost much less for fuel, the economics will tell the tale.


I wouldn't assume that EVs will ever cost less than an ICE counterpart. Not saying that it can't happen, but from what I have read, the technical challenges to making cheap EVs are pretty serious.


Buying used makes them cheaper....er. Got mine for $8G's, 6 years old, 35K miles on it. Putting all my around town driving on it day in and day out for 11 months. I'll take Happy McPeaksters high priced oil and laugh at the economic consequences when it comes to getting around. You can argue that THANK GOD for the 2008 peak oil, as it got GM and Nissan off the sidelines and began the era of cheap used EVs for us folks worried about all the peak oils of this century. Let the ICE drivers eat cake!
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