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Limits to Growth was Wrong

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 26 Oct 2014, 18:49:26

I started with nothing and still have most of it. I see no reason to apologize for what I have got and I am far better then Hannity or Rush. :-)
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby Herr Meier » Sun 26 Oct 2014, 21:03:54

pstarr wrote:How can a people be expected to into the middle class when the facilities that make that life possible NEVER EXISTED. .

Start building them?
It should be especially easy because you can just copy stuff that works from other nations while avoiding stuff that doesn't work. But that would require discipline, motivation, and persistence. Its much easier to blame others for ones own misery.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby Herr Meier » Sun 26 Oct 2014, 21:10:34

pstarr wrote:[ and the poor can only blame themselves for their poverty:


Mostly yes. While a Mexican immigrant works his ass off and makes enough money to even send some home to family in mexico, white trash is mostly complaining that they don't get enough handouts. Quite often poverty is a choice.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 02:25:42

From what I know, middle class conveniences are essentially purchased through increased credit and jobs in the service industry that offer higher wages. Meanwhile, more of manufacturing and food production are mechanized and offered to overseas businesses. The workers in these industries also want middle class conveniences and the move to service industries. Costs are kept low by bypassing environmental laws and through various political and military means (such as using the military to protect the petrodollar).

Progress is introduced in poor countries that have a lot of natural resources to exploit given the public view of fostering democracy, economic freedom, etc. The main purpose, though, is to secure access to resources and at the same time to expand the market of consumers.

Some of the reasons for immigration include population aging (i.e., to ensure that young health care workers are available to care for the growing number of elderly), jobs that lack workers, etc.

Thus, the current middle class is dependent not only on a growing number of workers overseas or contracted to work in their country, but also on a growing market of consumers (especially a growing middle class) to ensure steady, if not increasing, income and returns on their investment.

Of course, all of these factors assume more than enough oil and material resources needed not only to ensure economic growth but to solve environmental problems as well.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 07:30:07

ralfy wrote:From what I know, middle class conveniences are essentially purchased through increased credit and jobs in the service industry that offer higher wages.
The economy is expanded not by credit but by investment with credit being just the first step in the cycle. Sound investment combines capital with labor , resources and management to produce a useful product that is sold for a profit after all the bills are paid including the initial credit. It is when the money is borrowed and misused and not paid back that causes trouble.
Progress is introduced in poor countries that have a lot of natural resources to exploit given the public view of fostering democracy, economic freedom, etc. The main purpose, though, is to secure access to resources and at the same time to expand the market of consumers.
Would not these expanded consumers be middle class?

Of course, all of these factors assume more than enough oil and material resources needed not only to ensure economic growth but to solve environmental problems as well.

Every class is dependent on cheap oil. The classes existed before oil and will survive its demise. The total numbers in all classes will be reduced back down to the planets carrying capacity but the proportion of the population in each class remains to be seen. You certainly will not end up with one billion rich people with no middle class or poor.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 12:13:38

I think most US infrastructure was built near the time of peak US oil production.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 17:18:52

Keith_McClary wrote:I think most US infrastructure was built near the time of peak US oil production.
There was a dramatic increase in the rate of construction after ice engines became available but the infrastructure of the country had been building steadily from the time of the revolution. The Erie canal and the transcontinental railroad for examples.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 18:32:36

vtsnowedin wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:I think most US infrastructure was built near the time of peak US oil production.
There was a dramatic increase in the rate of construction after ice engines became available but the infrastructure of the country had been building steadily from the time of the revolution. The Erie canal and the transcontinental railroad for examples.


Post offices, post roads and turnpikes came before canals or railroads, and port facilities and fortifications came first of all.

The same can be said for Calais, Hamburg, London, all major ports and fortified towns long before fossil fuels came onto the scene.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 27 Oct 2014, 22:42:38

vtsnowedin wrote:The economy is expanded not by credit but by investment with credit being just the first step in the cycle. Sound investment combines capital with labor , resources and management to produce a useful product that is sold for a profit after all the bills are paid including the initial credit. It is when the money is borrowed and misused and not paid back that causes trouble.


If what is produced is not purchased, then businesses don't earn, and there are no returns on investment.

That's also why credit is extended not only to businesses but even to consumers.


Would not these expanded consumers be middle class?



That's right. The current middle class can only get their better returns on investment, promotions, bonuses, etc., from increased sales, and given competition, that will ultimately involve an expanding market. It also helps to move to higher-paying jobs (usually in the service industry, especially finance) and to have banks that will extend credit across the board (which is inevitable because banks can only earn more by extending more credit).


Every class is dependent on cheap oil. The classes existed before oil and will survive its demise. The total numbers in all classes will be reduced back down to the planets carrying capacity but the proportion of the population in each class remains to be seen. You certainly will not end up with one billion rich people with no middle class or poor.


Middle class conveniences require much more cheap oil and other material resources than basic needs.

Given the demise of cheap oil coupled with a lack of other material resources plus a large population and a combination of environmental damage and global warming, not to mention having a significant proportion of its assets consisting of credit, the middle class will be lucky if it can even meet basic needs.
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Re: Limits to Growth was Wrong

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 00:24:04

vtsnowedin wrote:
Keith_McClary wrote:I think most US infrastructure was built near the time of peak US oil production.
There was a dramatic increase in the rate of construction after ice engines became available but the infrastructure of the country had been building steadily from the time of the revolution. The Erie canal and the transcontinental railroad for examples.
Yeah, but I think most (in terms of $ investment) of what is in use today was built recently. Granted, a lot of it might be replacement upgrades for older infrastructure on the same locations/routes.
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