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Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Apr 2021, 14:33:22

Ayoob wrote:I think this whole lockdown telecommute thing is 100% peak oil and the end of the easy multiplication of labor and the enormous population growth since oil was struck. The name of the game now is reduce consumption, by subterfuge, and destroy the system used to pipe hydrocarbons to the masses. The 1% of humanity that will survive the coming purge will be wealthy and will rest easily, floating on a pool of oil.

I think it's a flat earth and the faked moon landings re the Apollo missions. :roll:

When you have to go to extremist conspiracy theories with NO meaningful evidence, references, etc. much less credible citations, why even bother? To excite the lunatic fringe?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 14 Apr 2021, 14:37:31

AdamB wrote:Sounds conspiratorial. You figure the Illuminati are involved, or perhaps the alien lizard overlords? :)

Damn! I forgot to check for lizard overlords under my bed this morning. And I'll just bet that THEY'RE the ones that cause my house to get sloppy over time, AND my hair to get gray AND my wrinkles too!

...

At some point, believing in such things SHOULD be embarrassing, unless one's brain is the size of a walnut.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Apr 2021, 15:20:00

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:Sounds conspiratorial. You figure the Illuminati are involved, or perhaps the alien lizard overlords? :)

Damn! I forgot to check for lizard overlords under my bed this morning. And I'll just bet that THEY'RE the ones that cause my house to get sloppy over time, AND my hair to get gray AND my wrinkles too!

...

At some point, believing in such things SHOULD be embarrassing, unless one's brain is the size of a walnut.


David Ickes being used by some peak oil advocates as a reference back in the heyday of the movement was one of the most hysterical things I recall about the entire period. I forget if it was over at LATOC or some of the spin offs to LATOC (after Matt revealed the truth about his followers and they crawled under harder to find rocks) where this kind of nonsense was common. Ralfy would know. :lol:
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 17:49:39

Pops wrote:
aadbrd wrote:I
Generally, it feels to me like the prophets of PO Doom were about right, albeit somewhat overzealous. But between the recession, the mass-money-printing, the one-time "something" of high-price-enabled fracking (that all cornies said "they'd" think of), and the miracle of "refinery gain" we've not seen the full effect of the peak.


We in the rich western nations haven't, so long as we have been able to keep our jobs, but the trouble in the third world and the mass migrations are an indicator to me that the peak was, as predicted, around 2007~8. Here in Australia we peaked in production in 2000 and it's all been downhill from there as far as lifestyle goes for many. Prices of food and housing went up massively in the 00's and are again now after a lull of a decade.

The USA peaked in 1970 and look at the state of the society now compared to back then. Many there have been convinced by their TV sets that it's the mismanagement of politicians but that's just an obfuscation. When a nation peaks, it's all downhill for them.

Obviously from the curve below we continued consuming oil in greater amounts here in Aus but at a cost to the poorer elements of society. Someone somewhere holds the paper on all our houses and new cars and it's only this debt that has allowed Australians to continue living like it's 1999.

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Re: Let's Discuss Peak Oil For A Change

Unread postby mustang19 » Mon 26 Jul 2021, 18:30:35

theluckycountry wrote:
Pops wrote:
aadbrd wrote:I
Generally, it feels to me like the prophets of PO Doom were about right, albeit somewhat overzealous. But between the recession, the mass-money-printing, the one-time "something" of high-price-enabled fracking (that all cornies said "they'd" think of), and the miracle of "refinery gain" we've not seen the full effect of the peak.


We in the rich western nations haven't, so long as we have been able to keep our jobs, but the trouble in the third world and the mass migrations are an indicator to me that the peak was, as predicted, around 2007~8. Here in Australia we peaked in production in 2000 and it's all been downhill from there as far as lifestyle goes for many. Prices of food and housing went up massively in the 00's and are again now after a lull of a decade.

The USA peaked in 1970 and look at the state of the society now compared to back then. Many there have been convinced by their TV sets that it's the mismanagement of politicians but that's just an obfuscation. When a nation peaks, it's all downhill for them.

Obviously from the curve below we continued consuming oil in greater amounts here in Aus but at a cost to the poorer elements of society. Someone somewhere holds the paper on all our houses and new cars and it's only this debt that has allowed Australians to continue living like it's 1999.

Image


Well yes, Australia like everyone else is rather screwed, in long decline.

Out of boredom I made a production breakdown for ghawar

https://i.ibb.co/tQ1xHbc/55-A85-BD5-358 ... -AF742.jpg

There's only three real stages of ghawar production: secondary, tight, and permian/Devonian gas. Given that all these are exhausted it seems rather screwed.

The total Saudi production is something like

https://i.ibb.co/vw4XR6z/BB5-B385-C-2-D ... -DDB22.jpg

Of course if I ran my own site I would make the images work but for some reason people... like posting here? And they also like discussing renewables and not the purpose of the site.

https://i.ibb.co/1r9wfdW/E1-BD3514-3-C1 ... AF9-F5.jpg

The model summed and compared is above. Because Saudi has stopped building any kind of new plants or fields, and it's tertiary efforts are exceeding the 10-20 year life of those operations it's clear production will decline fast.
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Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Vladimir » Tue 07 Sep 2021, 21:44:03

Privet, Hello!

Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 09:28:23

Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!

Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


Hey Vlad. Just out of curiousity, what peak oil crisis? Can you not buy fuel where you live?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 11:21:28

AdamB wrote:
Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!

Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


Hey Vlad. Just out of curiousity, what peak oil crisis? Can you not buy fuel where you live?

Hi Vlad. Do you have specific issues, articles, facts, etc. you're concerned about?

Various conspiracists have been CLAIMING ruinous "peak oil" consequences are "just around the corner" for a good several decades now. But overall, there just isn't any meaningful evidence of that. Supply and demand continues to work. Prices continue to react to market conditions. The long term global consumption of oil has tended to grow as the global economy has grown, over time.

With any luck, over the next two to three decades, a MASSIVE shift from ICE hydrocarbon burning for fuel to electric (hopefully mostly green, like solar and wind) will occur in the transportation sector. If humanity can use the remaining oil for, say, badly needed petrochemicals, it will last a LOT longer than just stupidly burning it, and making AGW far worse.

Time will tell, but it looks to me like climate change is a FAR bigger problem than "running out of oil" for at least the next several decades.

There's also substitution. There's a hell of a lot of natural gas and coal that can produce gasoline for example, if there is a really massive need. Hopefully we don't go down that road, but we could, vs. starving or freezing due to "lack of oil".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 11:48:44

Vladimire,

Welcome aboard.

You will obviously find a wide range of opinions here, and even some facts.

And some long running disagreements.

There are any number if old forums approaching the topic from various points of view.

And there is much discussion along the general lines of Resource Depletion.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 12:18:07

Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!
Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


The system CANNOT fail! It will do EVERYTHING in it's power to keep going. I think this is what we are dealing with now.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Vladimir » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 23:36:03

Thank you folks for your replies!

I am not exactly an alarmist in the short term, but I look at various cycles and trends throughout history and extrapolate forwards. This ''Peak Oil'' crisis is just one of several going on all at once, and the system we can call ''modernity'' is not as solid as it seems. I don't think things will collapse overnight in any case, it might take centuries to fall before it finds some equilibrium. I think we in fact have been in a ''new dark ages'' since about 1904.

I am planning on studying this Peak Oil phenomena and asking questions, seeing how it fits into the larger group of trends.

Thanks!
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Vladimir » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 23:38:12

jedrider wrote:
Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!
Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


The system CANNOT fail! It will do EVERYTHING in it's power to keep going. I think this is what we are dealing with now.


Ah yes, would that be in your opinion the larger crisis of Capitalism, or something else?
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Vladimir » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 23:40:36

Newfie wrote:Vladimire,

Welcome aboard.

You will obviously find a wide range of opinions here, and even some facts.

And some long running disagreements.

There are any number if old forums approaching the topic from various points of view.

And there is much discussion along the general lines of Resource Depletion.


Thank you for your welcome. And I agree, since the world is finite, it stands to reason that it's resources are as well, so that no technological cornucopia exists that will solve the problem of eventual depletion.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Vladimir » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 23:43:52

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!

Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


Hey Vlad. Just out of curiousity, what peak oil crisis? Can you not buy fuel where you live?

Hi Vlad. Do you have specific issues, articles, facts, etc. you're concerned about?

Various conspiracists have been CLAIMING ruinous "peak oil" consequences are "just around the corner" for a good several decades now. But overall, there just isn't any meaningful evidence of that. Supply and demand continues to work. Prices continue to react to market conditions. The long term global consumption of oil has tended to grow as the global economy has grown, over time.

With any luck, over the next two to three decades, a MASSIVE shift from ICE hydrocarbon burning for fuel to electric (hopefully mostly green, like solar and wind) will occur in the transportation sector. If humanity can use the remaining oil for, say, badly needed petrochemicals, it will last a LOT longer than just stupidly burning it, and making AGW far worse.

Time will tell, but it looks to me like climate change is a FAR bigger problem than "running out of oil" for at least the next several decades.

There's also substitution. There's a hell of a lot of natural gas and coal that can produce gasoline for example, if there is a really massive need. Hopefully we don't go down that road, but we could, vs. starving or freezing due to "lack of oil".



The various problems we have in the modern age are all interconnected, and will no doubt make a period of relative decline last a long time; not a generation, but for centuries perhaps of stagnation.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Vladimir » Thu 09 Sep 2021, 23:47:38

AdamB wrote:
Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!

Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


Hey Vlad. Just out of curiousity, what peak oil crisis? Can you not buy fuel where you live?


I am not doing without, I should say, lol. But tomorrow, who knows?
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 07:05:07

Vladimir wrote:Thank you folks for your replies!

I am not exactly an alarmist in the short term, but I look at various cycles and trends throughout history and extrapolate forwards. This ''Peak Oil'' crisis is just one of several going on all at once, and the system we can call ''modernity'' is not as solid as it seems. I don't think things will collapse overnight in any case, it might take centuries to fall before it finds some equilibrium. I think we in fact have been in a ''new dark ages'' since about 1904.

I am planning on studying this Peak Oil phenomena and asking questions, seeing how it fits into the larger group of trends.

Thanks!


I also see repetitive trends. One interesting if dry book was “Wealth in Democracy” IIRC correctly. It examined the fall of 5 previous empires and compared to America.

I am of the opinion that the British Empire less fell than transferred its center to the USA, so that we continued it for some time.

This time there is not obvious successor to the current empire as the entire world is facing sever resource depletion. Unless there is some completely unexpected game changer. Some form of boundless clean and free energy. Good luck with that.
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby Pops » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 09:18:19

Vladimir wrote:Ah yes, would that be in your opinion the larger crisis of Capitalism, or something else?

Hi Vladimir,
I've read that Marx thought the process of capitalism was the basically exploitation of labor at a discounted price to resell it at a profit. Which is fine, as far as a critique of capitalists goes. However human labor has been around since humans — not so capitalism. Capitalism arose concurrently with the industrial development of fossil fuel, namely coal, in the 17th century or thereabouts and has been trying to eliminate the human aspect of production ever since.

The concentrated energy and dirt cheap price of fossils was a far greater "buy low-sell high" opportunity than fragile human labor was or ever will be. Currently a gallon of unleaded labor is $2.50 plus tax, equivalent to perhaps 500 man/hours—call it 1/2¢ per hour. (David Pimentel I think)

Once we burn through the fossils, if we're lucky, we might wind up with a renewable source with enough of an energy return to be self-sustaining and some little bit left over to light an LED to do the chores. Capitalism will fight to the bitter end but it is the ultimate heat engine and will sputter out (or implode dramatically) eventually.

We'll get back to some form of feudalism I suppose, if we're lucky.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Sep 2021, 14:31:03

Vladimir wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Vladimir wrote:Privet, Hello!

Hi, I have decided to join this message board and find out more about where we are in the apparent ''Peak Oil'' crisis. I believe a lot of the troubles the world is in now are due to the powers-that-be, and their inability to deal with this looming crisis.


Hey Vlad. Just out of curiousity, what peak oil crisis? Can you not buy fuel where you live?


I am not doing without, I should say, lol. But tomorrow, who knows?


Tomorrow indeed. Based on the observation that the modern peak oil era began with Colin Campbell delcaring global peak oil had occurred in 1990, how many more DECADES of tomorrows might we need to continue to wait?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby amelia1984 » Sat 22 Jan 2022, 05:58:32

Hello ! :)
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Re: Hello, I'm Vladimir!

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 30 Jan 2022, 10:45:43

Pops wrote:
Vladimir wrote:Ah yes, would that be in your opinion the larger crisis of Capitalism, or something else?

Hi Vladimir,
I've read that Marx thought the process of capitalism was the basically exploitation of labor at a discounted price to resell it at a profit. Which is fine, as far as a critique of capitalists goes. However human labor has been around since humans — not so capitalism. Capitalism arose concurrently with the industrial development of fossil fuel, namely coal, in the 17th century or thereabouts and has been trying to eliminate the human aspect of production ever since.

The concentrated energy and dirt cheap price of fossils was a far greater "buy low-sell high" opportunity than fragile human labor was or ever will be. Currently a gallon of unleaded labor is $2.50 plus tax, equivalent to perhaps 500 man/hours—call it 1/2¢ per hour. (David Pimentel I think)

Once we burn through the fossils, if we're lucky, we might wind up with a renewable source with enough of an energy return to be self-sustaining and some little bit left over to light an LED to do the chores. Capitalism will fight to the bitter end but it is the ultimate heat engine and will sputter out (or implode dramatically) eventually.

We'll get back to some form of feudalism I suppose, if we're lucky.

Vladimir, you should know that Pops is not normally so pessimistic. I would normally say Pops is actually an optimist. He is probably not the optimist that some here have been toward you already, pretty much rejecting the whole idea of peak oil before you even had a chance to properly introduce yourself. No, he's not that kind of an optimist.
Pops, what would you call yourself? I tend to think of you as center, but I don't know if I would categorize you as center-left, or center-right?
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