Tikib wrote:Well okay that's fair. There is peak-oil as in the technical term for the peak in global oil production and 'peak oil' as in the predicted result of technical peak oil resulting in the gradual or possibly fast collapse of civilization.
Tikib wrote:I have here and in 'real-life'(tm) have heard people using the phrase peak-oil to describe energy based collapse.
Tikib wrote: I don't see a dramatic crash in the next 100 years unless we ignore climate change....
Tikib wrote:Why I am so confident about this, because of the progress we have made on solar energy. Solar energy is abundant and will soon be extremely cheap to deploy.
Pops wrote:If the economy sputters, nationalism impacts trade or worse, CC bites, PO bites, and/or population growth stagnates, killing econ growth, the easy decisions of simply building new capacity with cheaper RE becomes the hard choice of decommissioning perfectly good FF generation to cut GHG emissions. Double that if PO raises the overhead cost.
Tikib wrote:Why do you need oil for those things?
Theres no reason you can't electrify the mining operation etc.
Business isn't going to be as usual but it never has been. The economy has been changing and adapting since the dawn of time.
Your right that endless growth can't go on forever, but I don't see a dramatic crash in the next 100 years unless we ignore climate change or we kill ourselves off.
Why I am so confident about this, because of the progress we have made on solar energy. Solar energy is abundant and will soon be extremely cheap to deploy.
https://singularityhub.com/2019/08/09/t ... n-its-way/
Ibon wrote:
Yes that is increasingly likely and along with that we will see a sharp decrease in CO2 emissions because the demand destruction will be awesome. Consumption will drop and folks will
reuse, recycle, repair, reduce and recover..... just like they do in Panama.
ralfy wrote:Tikib wrote:Why do you need oil for those things?
Theres no reason you can't electrify the mining operation etc.
Business isn't going to be as usual but it never has been. The economy has been changing and adapting since the dawn of time.
Your right that endless growth can't go on forever, but I don't see a dramatic crash in the next 100 years unless we ignore climate change or we kill ourselves off.
Why I am so confident about this, because of the progress we have made on solar energy. Solar energy is abundant and will soon be extremely cheap to deploy.
https://singularityhub.com/2019/08/09/t ... n-its-way/
It's takes coordination on a global scale and sacrifices in order to transition. One study argues that it will take more than a century to do so.
The current global capitalist system, which is based on competition and assumes continuous and increasing growth, is not suitable for that.
Solar energy has low energy returns and quantity.
Finally, if it will not be business as usual, then peak oil is not a non-threat.
Tikib wrote:Once the price of solar goes to say half the price of conventional sources (read coal and gas) then capitalism is exactly what you need to transition from one to the other.
Solar energy has improved a lot since Halls study, solar cells are cheaper and more efficient than ever before, but there are still a lot of gains potentially to come (the most exciting one just over the horizon are of course silicon-pevovskite tandem cells with over 25% efficiency)
My title should really be something like : peak oil is a an overrated threat compared to climate change.
Tikib wrote:ralfy wrote:Tikib wrote:Why do you need oil for those things?
Theres no reason you can't electrify the mining operation etc.
Business isn't going to be as usual but it never has been. The economy has been changing and adapting since the dawn of time.
Your right that endless growth can't go on forever, but I don't see a dramatic crash in the next 100 years unless we ignore climate change or we kill ourselves off.
Why I am so confident about this, because of the progress we have made on solar energy. Solar energy is abundant and will soon be extremely cheap to deploy.
https://singularityhub.com/2019/08/09/t ... n-its-way/
It's takes coordination on a global scale and sacrifices in order to transition. One study argues that it will take more than a century to do so.
The current global capitalist system, which is based on competition and assumes continuous and increasing growth, is not suitable for that.
Solar energy has low energy returns and quantity.
Finally, if it will not be business as usual, then peak oil is not a non-threat.
Once the price of solar goes to say half the price of conventional sources (read coal and gas) then capitalism is exactly what you need to transition from one to the other.
Solar energy has improved a lot since Halls study, solar cells are cheaper and more efficient than ever before, but there are still a lot of gains potentially to come (the most exciting one just over the horizon are of course silicon-pevovskite tandem cells with over 25% efficiency)
My title should really be something like : peak oil is a an overrated threat compared to climate change.
The United States now has almost as much oil production as Saudi Arabia through Shale, Sand and Fracking etc. I have seen reports that old oil fields were reopened after decades of running dry full of new oil. (Ok how did the well magically refill? Could Abiotic Oil theory be right or some other similar process be happening deep down the crust of the earth?
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