Some time this century, the era of cheap and abundant energy will end, and Western industrial civilization will likely begin a long, slow descent toward a resource-limited future characterized by "involuntary simplicity."
That's the picture painted by University of Michigan environmental psychologist Raymond De Young, who argues in a new paper that behavioral scientists should begin now to prepare the public for this "energy descent," which he defines as a tightening of energy supplies accompanied by "a persistent step-wise downshift" to a new, reduced-consumption normal.
By the end of the century, day-to-day activities will need to consume nearly an order of magnitude less energy and materials than currently used, said De Young, an associate professor of conservation behavior at U-M's School of Natural Resources and Environment.
"Frankly, it may not be possible for members of Western societies to maintain anything close to a contemporary life pattern while also living within these new biophysical limits," he said. By biophysical limits, De Young means the ability of nature—including the Earth's ecosystems and its geological formations—to provide resources and services to humanity.
Having ignored many opportunities for voluntary simplicity, industrial society may now face involuntary simplicity, he said.
"This is not at all what the popular folk mythology of resource apocalypse predicts," he said. "It lacks Hollywood's sudden and catastrophic collapse motif. The change is more likely to emerge slowly over many decades—a persistent step-wise downshift to a new normal."
The job for behavioral scientists will be "to help people cope with the realization that everyday life may soon differ substantially from conventional expectations and to help them envision an alternative to their current relationship with resources," De Young said.
Full Text Journal Article: Some behavioral aspects of energy descent: how a biophysical psychology might help people transition through the lean times ahead Front. Psychol., 03 November 2014 | doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01255
... Overall, despite a century of technological progress that provided noteworthy efficiency gains and innovations in design, policy and practice, there has been not the expected decrease but an absolute increase in aggregate natural resource consumption. Society may be experiencing the unwelcome consequences of having used its technological ingenuity to attempt limitless growth on a finite planet.
... in a transition, the responses likely would need to be maintained and periodically updated over a lengthy period. Unfortunately, society has little familiarity with the long-drawn-out planning and management needed to respond well to biophysical limits.
... Stated plainly, helping society to thrive while living within ecological limits should no longer be treated as just another application area of the behavioral sciences. Responding to biophysical constraints has become an existential issue, global in scope, local in impact. Whatever social good can be achieved through the application of empirical discoveries and clinical practices, that good may remain unrealized should society falter in its response to energy descent. Thus, developing a biophysical psychology is an essential pre-condition for attaining the other worthy goals of all social scientists and practitioners.
... Behavior change under conditions of urgency, great environmental uncertainty and grave stakes might be advised to start with small steps. As anthropologist and political scientist Scott (1998, p. 345) advises with respect to interventions for economic development, “Prefer wherever possible to take a small step, stand back, observe, and then plan the next small move.”
Not sure we have the luxury of time. Seems to be a disciple of Greer (slow-crash). Reference list is a 'Who's Who' of the Peak Oil crowd (Astyk, Baker, Gail, Greer, Hall, Heinberg, Bardi, et.al.).
