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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 12:29:21

Tanada wrote:Reality is also that when the earth has been in hot house mode, which is roughly 2/3rds of the time since life developed half a billion years ago, diversity and life zones cover the planet from pole to pole.


You will not see rolling wheat-fields in northern alaska. The soil and day/night cycles won't support it.

If we don't die off, we will most assuredly die back as the earth's carrying-capacity will suffer a big net loss.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 12:33:13

onlooker wrote:Just some points to counter you T. First, one of the nasty effects from acidic oceans and GW is HYDROGEN SULFIDE deadoy to oxygen breathing organisms and is cited by the paleontologist Peter Ward as the main cause of "The Great Dying" https://www.wired.com/2008/03/peter-ward-qa/

Second, the speed of change will be deadly to many species and perhaps us. Third, our adaptability will be largely predicated on our technology but modernity is threatened from various fronts.

Finally, our particularly successful strategy has been agriculture which is particularly threatened by temperature increases, lack of fresh water and unstable weather. AGW promises to bring all this and more.


We are getting a bit far afield of the 2C topic, but if Peter Ward were right then for 2/3rds of the history of life on Earth most of the planet would have been uninhabitable, which is countra indicated by the paleo geologic record of life through time. I know the true extinctionist love to cling to Ward as if he were a super genius and nobody could demonstrate his errors but such is not the case.

Secondly I never claimed we would smoothly move from current conditions to hothouse conditions without problems. Probably 7/8ths of the population will die off during the transition and first century after. However even a 95% death rate would leave more than enough genetic diversity of the human race for viable continuation of the species for the foreseeable future to the nth generation beyond those alive today.

Commensurate with that I am at heart a Historian and I know one fundamental truth, all civilizations decline and fall and are succeeded by a different civilization, sometimes wildly different. Our civilization is not an exception to this fundamental rule.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 12:37:28

I agree that extinction is NOT a foregone conclusion by any means
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 12:43:21

asg70 wrote:
Tanada wrote:Reality is also that when the earth has been in hot house mode, which is roughly 2/3rds of the time since life developed half a billion years ago, diversity and life zones cover the planet from pole to pole.


You will not see rolling wheat-fields in northern alaska. The soil and day/night cycles won't support it.

If we don't die off, we will most assuredly die back as the earth's carrying-capacity will suffer a big net loss.


You are a funny fellow ASG. The fact is after the transition what the soil will or will not support would have to be determined by nutrient profiles and actual attempts, not theory from some academic armchair theoretician.

As for the day/night cycle you don;t have a clue what you are talking about. Plants care about getting enough sunlight when they have the right temperature and moisture to grow in good enough soil. That can mean 24 hour daylight or 6 hour daylight and the plant will be just fine. You only really get issues when you have active rapid growth with less than 6 hours sunlight, but Alaska gets exactly the same number of annual sun hours as Toledo, Ohio or Quito, Ecuador. Alaskans grow massive bumper crops of veggies that tolerate their summer temperatures because they have as much as 20 hours of sun for growth at mid summer and that is what actually matters to the plants. If your goal is to grow wheat to supply your yearly needs and you can grow it all in 8 weeks of mid summer near constant sun that is no different than growing it in Kansas where it takes 16 weeks with less sun over a longer growing cycle.
Thermal Time Requirements For Wheat Production
The heat unit requirements to produce a mature crop are approximately 1550 for spring and 2200 for winter wheat. Translated into calendar days, this means that it would take 103 (103 x 15 = 1545) days to produce a spring and 147 (147 x 15 = 2205) days to produce a winter wheat crop if the average daily temperature was a constant 15°C. As we all know, there are large variations in temperature from day to day and growing season to growing season. The use of thermal time rather than calendar time takes this variability into consideration and provides an explanation for differences in crop maturity when observations from different years are compared. For example, we harvested Norstar winter wheat on July 20 in 1988 and August 24 in 1993 at Saskatoon. The 1988 growing season was much warmer with the result that the thermal time requirements to produce a mature Norstar crop were met five weeks earlier in 1988 than in 1993.

Wheat Growth
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 13:12:41

Tanada wrote:Probably 7/8ths of the population will die off during the transition and first century after.


Which would still be effectively TEOTWAWKI, basically just as bad as the neo Planet of the Apes films.

There's no way to get around you coming across as though you're trying to put a positive spin or at least downplay or shrug your shoulders over something that is inherently apocalyptic.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 14:18:14

The Greatest Ever California Drought was supposed to be "inherently apocalyptic"

I am enjoying this inherently apocalyptic weather no end! Warm, sunny, hiking, mushroom hunting and beach walking. The past two years of Post-Apocalyptic Rain have done wonders for the mushroom crop. And the marijuana crop.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 16:08:13

"And the marijuana crop"

Ahhh, now that explains quite a bit!!! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 16:45:11

asg70 wrote:
Tanada wrote:Probably 7/8ths of the population will die off during the transition and first century after.


Which would still be effectively TEOTWAWKI, basically just as bad as the neo Planet of the Apes films.

There's no way to get around you coming across as though you're trying to put a positive spin or at least downplay or shrug your shoulders over something that is inherently apocalyptic.


Everyone dies sooner or later, pretending otherwise is childish. Even species die eventually, though some have tremendously long periods of existence compared to others. Humans bloomed under the influence of fossil fuels and will die back, this is neither an unprecedented nor unpredictable event. Making yourself emotional about it won't change things from the course we chose for our species, but proclaiming that everyone will die or nothing worthwhile could possibly exist a century or ten centuries from now juts because you will be dead when those times arrive? How pointless is that? If I had been born in the 19th century or earlier I would have died by age six, only the 'miracle' of modern medicine allowed me to grow up and have a life past early childhood. I have known I am living on borrowed time since I was a young teen, but I find a great many people think they are 'special' and the world will change to suit their desires if they just wish hard enough.

When I was a child I reasoned as a child, I spoke as a child, but when I grew up I put away childish things.


That doesn't mean I don't know how to have fun and relax, but I no longer reason as a child and expect the future to be what I wish. Instead I look at the world around me and I study the trends and I make reasoned judgements about how things are likely to go in the future. Near term I am terrible at prediction as are most people, but long term I see nothing 'special' about our civilization. Our culture is following the same path all prior cultures have followed and the majority now alive in North America are far more focused on what pleases them now rather than what they should do to maintain a better future for all. Thus it is in the death throws of every crumbling culture. The death of this modern culture however is not the end of the world, or the end of humanity, it is just a phase in the endless cycle of history. This too, shall pass.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 16:56:26

Tanada wrote:The death of this modern culture however is not the end of the world, or the end of humanity, it is just a phase in the endless cycle of history. This too, shall pass.


This isn't just the days before the sack of Rome by barbarians. It ain't "just a cycle". It's end of the cycles, at least for our species. When the biosphere is degraded to the extent it will be, we are not going to see cities rise up again, even over the span of hundreds of years. It's pretty much hunter-gatherer scavengers for the rest of homo-sapiens reign.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 21:05:33

asg70 wrote:
Tanada wrote:The death of this modern culture however is not the end of the world, or the end of humanity, it is just a phase in the endless cycle of history. This too, shall pass.


This isn't just the days before the sack of Rome by barbarians. It ain't "just a cycle". It's end of the cycles, at least for our species. When the biosphere is degraded to the extent it will be, we are not going to see cities rise up again, even over the span of hundreds of years. It's pretty much hunter-gatherer scavengers for the rest of homo-sapiens reign.



Toledo went from having a two mile thick glacier to havng thick forests, I rather doubt anything puny humans can manage will have a greater impact than that. You seem to be living some humans are super destroyer fantasy, I don’t get it. Take away every human and the evidence we ever existed will be gone from most places where we currenly have cities in a few generations. Heck when the next glacial cycle happens most land north of about 40 degrees will be crushed under miles of glacial ice again and if it is a really deep cycle maybe all the way down to 38 degrees latitude. Compared to nature man is no more powerful than the ant trying to carry off your picnic lunch. Claiming super villain status is pure hubris.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 22:01:14

I am not persuaded that is totally correct Sub. Not when we will almost certainly see soon an Ice-free Arctic and not when we have been instrumental in raising CO2 to levels not seen since the Dinosaurs and not when our numbers and civilization are culprits in initiating the 6th Mass Extinction. These changes rival any Nature has concocted and maybe surpasses some by nature of the speed of change
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 23:44:08

Threads like this are magnets for denialists. No point debating them.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 08:43:23

onlooker wrote:I am not persuaded that is totally correct Sub. Not when we will almost certainly see soon an Ice-free Arctic and not when we have been instrumental in raising CO2 to levels not seen since the Dinosaurs and not when our numbers and civilization are culprits in initiating the 6th Mass Extinction. These changes rival any Nature has concocted and maybe surpasses some by nature of the speed of change


One of the first and hardest lessonsI had to learn becoming a Christian is a sense of humility at haow small and weak my species is compared to the Universe.

God created the Heavens and the Earth with built in rules of physics. You can deny those rules til your dying day, but they remain in effect none the less. Yes we can kill many large species, the stuff on the macroscopic level, and we have managed to even make hundreds of them extinct. But the by far vast bulk of life in the Unverse and on Earth is microscopic. For every ton of macroscopic life visible to the naked human eye there are on the order of a million tons of microscopic life. As you sit wherever you are reading this the number of microscopic cell lives surviving and thriving in your body outnumber your own cell count.

You are a host for microscopic life, not the master of it.

Geological evidence shows that through every “extinction level event” that took out slices of macroscopic life variations the microbiome barely even noticed. Every Ameba alive right now is directly descended from the very first
Eukaryote that lived over a billion years ago when earths oceans were still anoxic everywhere except the shallow coastal water. We know God loves us as beings who can think, but God also told us to care for his garden and if we fail the consequences will be on us. But most of the garden is microscopic and doesn’t even notice us unless we directly interact with it. The same is true of most vegetation, how often do your hear about plants on the engangered species list?

Humans are special because we can reason and we have the responsibility to use that reason to care for God’s creation. I hate seeing the damage we do to the garden in our arrogance, but I do not fear the end of the garden or the end of our species. We are acting like spoiled brats and we will create a punishment suited to our behavior, but we won’t come anywhere close to ending life on Earth or killing ourselves off.

Oh, we are also not even a quarter of the way to Dinosaur CO2 level yet. Not saying we will never get there, but it is a long road from here to there and we have time to learn better.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 08:49:05

asg70 wrote:Threads like this are magnets for denialists. No point debating them.


I am not debating you and your arrogant denialism of reality, just correcting your misstatements so you do not mislead the lurkers into believing everyone here shares your faulty viewpoint.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 09:13:12

Yes Asg. What ever differences of opinion we may have with Tanada, does not warrant implying that he is a denialist . Since, I have been on this site, I have found T, always relies on the facts as he sees them without discernable bias.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 10:03:31

onlooker wrote:Yes Asg. What ever differences of opinion we may have with Tanada, does not warrant implying that he is a denialist . Since, I have been on this site, I have found T, always relies on the facts as he sees them without discernable bias.


If it walks like a duck. He has a gross misunderstanding of the difference between regional civilization rise and fall and global ecological collapse.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 10:16:40

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yes Asg. What ever differences of opinion we may have with Tanada, does not warrant implying that he is a denialist . Since, I have been on this site, I have found T, always relies on the facts as he sees them without discernable bias.


If it walks like a duck. He has a gross misunderstanding of the difference between regional civilization rise and fall and global ecological collapse.


Actually you are the one with the gross misunderstanding but I understand how ego often gets in the way of facts. Happens all the time, I even suffer from that pattern from time to time. I do however try my best to suppress ego and other emotional factors and study problems rationally wherever possible. Try it, you might like it.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 12:55:07

Tanada wrote:Actually you are the one with the gross misunderstanding...


How so? You simply categorize our looming collapse as simply a continuation of the cyclical rise and fall of civilizations that has occured throughout history:

Tanada wrote:The death of this modern culture however is not the end of the world, or the end of humanity, it is just a phase in the endless cycle of history. This too, shall pass.


But all of those civilizations still rose and fell within the holocene, which is the climatic era that facilitates agriculture. While humans existed before the holocene and survived multiple ice ages, we did so at a stone-age level. Everything we associate with human progress is contingent on a the planet's climate being stable enough to host agriculture, and hopefully enough of it that we don't have a conflagration of climate refugees and lifeboat ethics. These issues are at the crux of the doomer debate and I'm really surprised how casual and cavalier you are about it.

What does "this too shall pass" supposed to mean?
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 12:56:00

onlooker wrote:Yes Asg. What ever differences of opinion we may have with Tanada, does not warrant implying that he is a denialist . Since, I have been on this site, I have found T, always relies on the facts as he sees them resulting in a discernable bias.


Fixed that for you. With Tanada, there are places he will not go. The possibility that planetary conditions could become uninhabitable for humans, for instance.

Yes, the paleo-record shows some form of life for much of Earth's history, but they lived under conditions which would have been uninhabitable to humans.

We are already hitting temperatures in some places, that push the boundaries of human habitability.

Our limit is the ability to lose metabolic heat. And if we can't lose it, even if it only happens for a few hours, and at certain times of the year, the place becomes uninhabitable.

It was great that we were able to generate metabolic heat in a cold climate, but it is our fatal flaw when the climate warms up.

Remember, our livestock are in the same predicament as well. All mammals are limited by their ability to lose metabolic heat.

Add to that the loss of surface water due to evaporation. And we have about depleted the aquifers.

And the rain tracks shifting farther north with increasing temperatures.

Also the increasing blood acidosis with higher CO2, which causes detrimental physiological changes trying to cope. (metabolic syndrome)

Predicted temperature rises will take us over those metabolic limits. It will leave us outside our range of habitability. And will last for hundreds of thousands of years.

There is no rule that the climate must remain within our range of habitability, in fact, most of the planet's history was outside that range.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby GHung » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 15:07:36

But we can become subterranean creatures living in far northern caves and growing mushrooms in the dark. As Tanada says, we are extremely adaptable....

... though we may not look the same.
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