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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Re: Full Decarbonization by 2034 is Needed

Unread postby Graeme » Wed 14 Jan 2015, 17:46:20

There will always be a delay between academic ideas and actual implementation. The latter is starting in earnest now. We are walking on a knife edge so the final outcome is far from clear.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: Full Decarbonization by 2034 is Needed

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 14 Jan 2015, 17:50:56

Nice image. But I'd say we already slipped down the knifes edge and are now bleeding profusely from our vital organs--we just don't quite realize it yet.
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Re: Full Decarbonization by 2034 is Needed

Unread postby drwater » Wed 14 Jan 2015, 18:45:06

"D, There has to be a better way than crashing the global economy."

Graeme,

If the carbon fee and dividend is revenue neutral (i.e. all revenue is returned to households), the economy doesn't crash. As a matter of fact, GDP and employment would actual do slightly better over time with a fee and dividend than without the fee and dividend. It incentivizes a more rapid changeover to low carbon electricity generation, transportation, etc. The results of modeling by REMI (a top tier national economic modeling outfit) are surprisingly positive. Using Adam Smith's proverbial "invisible hand" is actually much more effective than a bunch of edicts from the top or new regulations.
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Re: Full Decarbonization by 2034 is Needed

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 14 Jan 2015, 19:08:35

Ah, invisible hands....coming to strangle you in your sleep! :lol: :lol:
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Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 01:05:50

http://www.nature.com/news/is-the-2-c-w ... sy-1.18868

Countries have pledged to limit global warming to 2 °C, and climate models say that is still possible. But only with heroic — and unlikely — efforts.

... the 2 °C scenarios that define that path seem so optimistic and detached from current political realities that they verge on the farcical...

...“Nobody dares say it’s impossible,” says Oliver Geden, head of the European Union Research Division at the German Institute for Inter­national and Security Affairs in Berlin. “Everybody is sort of underwriting the 2-degree cheque, but scientists have to think about the credibility of climate science.”

...Models that have these negative emissions really do let you continue to party on now, because you have these options later,” says John Reilly, co-director of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge.

In the pay-later approach, most models rely on a combination of bioenergy and CCS...

but neither bioenergy nor CCS has been demonstrated on anywhere near the scales imagined by the models...

...when researchers drafted the assessment’s chapter on emissions scenarios and costs, he says, they included clear statements about the difficulty of achieving the 2 °C goal. But the governments — led by the EU and a bloc of developing countries — pushed for a more optimistic assessment in the final IPCC report. “We got a lot of pushback, and the text basically got mangled,” Victor says.

...“The models have taught us that with unrealistic assumptions anything is possible, and with realistic assumptions it will be very hard to cut emissions to meet goals like 2 degrees,” Victor says.

[Do adults tasked with saving the world really have to be told by scientists that if they are totally unrealistic, they can make models do anything??!!]

“That’s an important result because it forces — or should force — some sobriety about what can be achieved.”

...without collective and aggressive action by all countries, costs invariably increase, and the chance of hitting the 2 °C goal plummets...

...As it stands, the world is on a path to nearly 3 °C of warming by the end of the century, and even that assumes substantial emissions reductions in the future [as well as the magical fairy dust of massive levels of CSS]. If nations do not go beyond their Paris pledges, the world could be on track to use up its 2 °C carbon budget as early as 2032...


One counter point is offered here: https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress. ... c-fantasy/

And note this quote from a SkS article linked by neven in the comments of this piece:

of the 400 scenarios that have a 50% or better chance of meeting the 2 °C target, 344 of them assume the large-scale uptake of negative emissions technologies and, in the 56 scenarios that do not, global emissions peak around 2010, which, as he notes, is contrary to the historical data.


So 7/8 rely on pixie dust, and the other 1/8th just out and out lie.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Anderson.html

And of course, no discussion of these things is complete without a presentation or two from Kevin Anderson:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZF1zNpzf8RM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpbfGaKp4K4

And of course, 1.5 or lower would be a far better 'goal': http://globalclimatechangeweek.com/open-letter/

Countries are starting to weigh in on the matter:

India backs 2 degree global warming limit

http://www.trust.org/item/2015112115485 ... OtherNews2
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 05:15:27

http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-res ... ve-us.html
WOW! Truly fairy dust. Coal sequestration as this article very well points out will take decades to really become scaleable, would be expensive/energy consuming as a process in itself, would be dangerous as in leaking and is basically hardly off the drawing board as we speak. Enough said. Pure fantasy. Dohboi, as you know I have read Mark Lynas " 6 degrees" and it is looking especially considering how not viable negative emissions are and how models do not account well for feedbacks, that we will rush through 2 degrees and continue all the way to 6 degrees at least. That is what at least this well researched book contends.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 06:41:10

"Two degrees" is going to be the number that gets used the most so that it lodges in people's consciousness so they can mingle acceptance and denial. "Yes, well I think we can handle two degrees" they'll say, ignoring that it's Celsius, and ignoring subsequent projections of a ten degree Fahrenheit. Expect the media to start emphasizing "two degrees."
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 10:40:51

Degrees is too abstract. Death isn't.

You have to define what a world with x' means as far as wailing and gnashing of teeth. That hasn't been communicated well enough. Moving cities away from the coast even, that's not a malthusian catastrophe grade concern. people don't understand that beyond a certain point, agriculture fails, billions die.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 10:51:36

...“The models have taught us that with unrealistic assumptions anything is possible, and with realistic assumptions it will be very hard to cut emissions to meet goals like 2 degrees,” Victor says."

Experience has taught us that the IIPC model has an margin of error of about 20%, which puts its projections at 1.6 °C to 2.4 °C. How likely it will be to cut emissions to meet a 2 degree goal will also depend heavily upon the accuracy of the model.


"...As it stands, the world is on a path to nearly 3 °C of warming by the end of the century, and even that assumes substantial emissions reductions in the future [as well as the magical fairy dust of massive levels of CSS]. If nations do not go beyond their Paris pledges, the world could be on track to use up its 2 °C carbon budget as early as 2032..."

As it stands, the world is on a path to reach the end of the fossil fuels age long before the end of the century. World petroleum reserves are now over 85% depleted, and oil is $40/ barrel; a price level that spells certain doom for the industry within a decade. Nation states will be hard pressed to supply basic necessities, like food, medical care, and housing for their populations. The requirements of immediate survival will trump any futuristic effects that might come about because of climate change. Nothing will be done because no one will have the means to do it!
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 11:11:13

"Nothing will be done because no one will have the means to do it!"
Great point Short.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Paulo1 » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 11:38:50

Excellent reply, Short. Plus, we will also still be dealing with the, "you go first" syndrome.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Apneaman » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 11:42:22

I would love to see the "science" that demonstrates that 2C is a safe upper limit.

Back when I first started to follow AGW 1C was the supposed safe upper limit recommended by scientists. So what happened to that recommendation? Let's take a look shall we. Let's take a look at how power works.


Exposé The 2º Death Dance – The 1º Cover-up

"Behind every tragedy there is a story. This story is non-fiction and begins in the 1980’s. It involves the Rockefeller funded Villach conferences, the entrance of the neoclassical economists, propaganda, and most importantly the disappearance of the 1ºC temperature threshold cited as the safe limit in 1990 by the United Nations Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases."

"The Origins of 2ºC – Neoclassical Economist Bill Nordhaus

The 2ºC temperature rise “target,” which is the only limit in the text of the ‘noted’ Copenhagen Accord, may well be one of the least understood cover-ups in history. The first suggestion to use 2° Celsius as a critical temperature limit for climate policy was not made by an esteemed climate scientist. Rather it was made by well-known neoclassical economist, W.D. Nordhaus, in a discussion paper of the prestigious Cowles Foundation."

more

https://thebiggestlieevertold.wordpress ... -cover-up/



Part II – Exposé | The 2º Death Dance – The 1º Cover-up


https://canadianclimateaction.wordpress ... -cover-up/
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 11:44:34

Dr. James Hanson states the same, calling 2C a politically expedient threshold but saying it is a recipe for disaster.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Apneaman » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 12:02:42

Survivable IPCC projections are based on science fiction - the reality is much worse - VIDEO

"The IPCC's 'Representative Concentration Pathways' are based on fantasy technology that must draw massive volumes of CO2 out of the atmosphere late this century, writes Nick Breeze - an unjustified hope that conceals a very bleak future for Earth, and humanity."


"10 billion tonnes a year of carbon sequestration? We don't do anything on this planet on that scale. We don't manufacture food on that scale, we don't mine iron ore on that scale. We don't even produce coal, oil or gas on that scale. Iron ore is below a billion tonnes a year! How are we going to create a technology, from scratch, a highly complicated technology, to the tune of 10 billion tonnes a year in the next 10 years?"


"Science fiction

It is not just that there are currently no ideas being researched to such a degree where they are likely to be able to bring down atmospheric carbon to a safe level of around 300 parts per million. It is also that the level of funding available to the scientists doing the research is woefully inadequate."


http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_c ... worse.html
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 12:11:24

http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-res ... ve-us.html
WOW! Truly fairy dust. Carbon sequestration as this article very well points out will take decades to really become scale able, would be expensive/energy consuming as a process in itself, would be dangerous as in leaking and is basically hardly off the drawing board as we speak. Enough said. Pure fantasy. Dohboi, as you know I have read Mark Lynas " 6 degrees" and it is looking especially considering how not viable negative emissions are and how models do not account well for feedbacks, that we will rush through 2 degrees and continue all the way to 6 degrees at least. That is what at least this well researched book contends.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 12:37:19

shortonoil wrote:As it stands, the world is on a path to reach the end of the fossil fuels age long before the end of the century. World petroleum reserves are now over 85% depleted, and oil is $40/ barrel; a price level that spells certain doom for the industry within a decade. Nation states will be hard pressed to supply basic necessities, like food, medical care, and housing for their populations. The requirements of immediate survival will trump any futuristic effects that might come about because of climate change. Nothing will be done because no one will have the means to do it!


You can try to pump up the threat of peak oil above AGW but I think that's a loser's argument. There's still just too much FF left to extract, far more than you'll concede.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 13:57:12

dohboi wrote:http://www.nature.com/news/is-the-2-c-world-a-fantasy-1.18868

Countries have pledged to limit global warming to 2 °C, and climate models say that is still possible. But only with heroic — and unlikely — efforts.


Yup. The Paris Conference COP21 is a farce. They aren't going to reduce CO2 emissions----they are signing a treaty to INCREASE CO2 emissions. And its all Obama's fault.

The Bali agreement scheduled for signing at Copenhagen in 2009 would've reduced CO2 emissions, but Obama mucked it up by insulting the Chinese premier, bringing the conference to the edge of collapse. Now the whole idea of reducing CO2 emissions has been abandoned, to be replaced with a new kind of treaty based on the fantasy of keeping global T increases below 2° C. And how do we do that? By magic----Paris is going to let CO2 emissions rise while pretending it is stopping global warming.

Its a total farce. Cheers!
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby Lore » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 14:13:29

Plantagenet wrote:
dohboi wrote:http://www.nature.com/news/is-the-2-c-world-a-fantasy-1.18868

Countries have pledged to limit global warming to 2 °C, and climate models say that is still possible. But only with heroic — and unlikely — efforts.


Yup. The Paris Conference COP21 is a farce. They aren't going to reduce CO2 emissions----they are signing a treaty to INCREASE CO2 emissions. And its all Obama's fault.

The Bali agreement scheduled for signing at Copenhagen in 2009 would've reduced CO2 emissions, but Obama mucked it up by insulting the Chinese premier, bringing the conference to the edge of collapse. Now the whole idea of reducing CO2 emissions has been abandoned, to be replaced with a new kind of treaty based on the fantasy of keeping global T increases below 2° C. And how do we do that? By magic----Paris is going to let CO2 emissions rise while pretending it is stopping global warming.

Its a total farce. Cheers!


I already debunked the "Obama fowled things up" argument in another thread here on that issue. Here is the real upcoming culprit from our side.

Republicans seek to strangle Paris climate pact
The simultaneous climate and budget deadlines give the GOP a tool to derail a legacy-defining pact for the president.

Call it the climate cliff.

On Dec. 11, Obama administration diplomats will be in Paris working to clinch a global climate deal that will hinge on whether they can back up a pledge to provide billions of dollars to help poor countries deal with climate change. That same day, Republicans back in Washington will be trying to hold that money hostage with a government shutdown hanging in the balance.

“We want to make sure that any of these countries that think they’re going to have a check to cash because of an agreement that the president may make in Paris — that they shouldn’t cash the check just yet," Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said of Republicans' strategy.

Congress must pass a new spending bill by Dec. 11, when a stopgap measure expires. The simultaneous deadlines on each side of the Atlantic Ocean give Republicans a tool to derail a legacy-defining pact for the president and score a rare victory on climate policy. They also significantly raise the stakes in this year's game of shutdown chicken.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/p ... z3suBIXbT6


As far as the 2 °C goal, we're already locked into a 3+°C world by the turn of the century.
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Re: Is the 2°C world a fantasy?

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 29 Nov 2015, 14:30:13

The answer... simply.

Yep.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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