Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Novus » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 12:13:41

Real economic growth is impossible. Notice that even after the slightest bid of economic recovery has sent gas prices close to that magical $3 mark where it gas prices start hammering the economy. Not only is growth impossible but almost continuous economic decline is required to keep gas and oil from prices spiking again.
User avatar
Novus
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2450
Joined: Tue 21 Jun 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 12:20:29

"Growth" as measured by GDP is so misleading it would be laughable if it wasn't so disgusting - one of the biggest "Growth" events in the last decade was Katrina for cripes' sake - I'm sure 9/11 cause lots of economic activity.

NOW on PBS had a good program this weekend with several segments on different types of "new" economy. Of course they had nothing to do with modern day capitalists.

One segment was on employee owned businesses and how they were trying to convince local large businesses to toss them some bones. I think one was in Cleveland where they were actually getting the large hospital (biggest regional employer) to use these types of business for services like laundry.

What I'd "like" to see are more of these types of small business grow instead of, say, Waste Management and their tentacles. I use a small guy with a couple of trucks instead of WM even though it costs more, a 1-truck propane guy instead of Suburban, independent ISP, local grocer, etc.

If we make it cool to use the local guy instead of lining up at midnight in front of Wallys to save $10 we be much better off and ...

Not holding my breath tho...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 12:24:08

8) Growth needs to be looked at in relation to population. If the
economy does not grow at least as fast as the population then you of course have a decline on a per capita basis. If the population was stable or declining economic growth would not be necessary. It might be desirable but not necessary. As we have had a growing population every century post medieval black death the need for growth is assumed.
Can our economy grow post peak. Why not? Economic activity involves people doing useful work at a profit. Post peak the tasks that will be most useful are those directed at dealing with the shortage of liquid fuels. Rebuilding our cities and towns so that home and workplace are within walking distance will take a lot of work especially with reduced fuel to run machinery and power tools. Rebuilding our rail system and electrifying it won't happen in a day. etc.etc.
Oil has been doing the work for us and the oil companies have gotten rich selling it to us. When it runs out those that deliver the alternative will be the ones with a paycheck.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby diemos » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 12:28:42

Timo wrote:Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?


Yes.

But not in the sense of building more and more of the same old stuff.

For the foreseeable future REAL economic growth will involve changing our current infrastructure to be one that is less fossil fuel dependent and building alternative energy sources. The core problem being that this is not profitable under our current economic system. Instead, our current economic system will react to resource shortages by throwing enough people over the side of the lifeboat so that the survivors can keep up an appearance of BAU. At least until the loser to winner ratio becomes untenable and the losers band together to end the current economic system and replace it with one that they think will work better for them. History is replete with examples of all sorts of crazy political/economic systems that get put in place when the current one fails enough of the people. See, french revolution, communism, fascism, anarcho-syndicalist communes etc.
User avatar
diemos
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1423
Joined: Fri 23 Sep 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 13:46:04

The only "growth" I see as sustainable is plant growth. So if we want to have a "growth" economy, a sustainable one, it needs to be based around the growing of plants. Tons has been written about how to implement such a society and economy. The final chapter of the book "Permaculture: a designers manual" by Bill Mollison has a pretty complete outline of how it might be done. Other plans out there include Transition Towns http://transitionnetwork.org/ and The Community Solution: http://www.communitysolution.org/agraria.html

So there is plenty of information out there about what to do. Of course if nobody actually DOES anything it won't help. Plans have to be implemented to do any good.
Ludi
 

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Lore » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 14:14:32

Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Not at this point as long as there is a widening gap between the wealthiest few and the so called middle class. Along with consideration and conservation of natural resources and environmental issues.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9021
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Cabrone » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 14:43:01

I can't see any real growth without a fundamental rethink on our views and aspirations and how we live our lives and I can't see that happening until most other options are exhausted.

I doubt that the average Cuban wanted the changes that were imposed on them when the oil ran out but when things got to the point of 'change or die' then they adapted.

Its probably BAU until its blindingly obvious that there's no alternative although I'm sure some of the more enlightened countries will transition faster than others.
User avatar
Cabrone
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 433
Joined: Fri 21 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: London

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby americandream » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 14:47:56

Timo wrote:Perhaps the better question to ask, instead of the relative severity of our current economic doldrums is to figure out what, if anything, can fuel a new economic recovery. The first question to ask is: 1) is an economic recovery possible? The next question, then, would be: 2) What will fuel a new economic recovery? The last question would be (if we can even get that far): 3) How significant would that new growth be relative to our status quo?

These may seem easy to answer, but i highly suspect that growth is possible ONLY given HUGE technological advancement. Suppose, for example, that fusion is proven reliable, efficient, and unlimited. That discovery would tend to all of our energy needs. But, this discovery would also put tens of thousands of coal miners and oil companies out of work. I know this situation isn't likely at all within our lifetimes, but one persons gain is another persons unemployment.

Have fun.


It depends on the nature of the growth.

Where it is premised around the functional waste of capitalism, sustainable growth is only possible where there are mechanisms to comprehensively replace the indigenous resource depletion, where that be by some method of all round resource alchemy or the opening up of foreign resourcing frontiers, in the case of a planet, other planets.

Failing this, small magnitude growth in communistic steady states (the voodoo communism of China excluded) offers the only other hope of a modernistic civil society.

Failing all of this, say hello to barbarism.

edit: there is the other thorny issue of functional waste and the overwhelming of the planet with non-biodegradeable waste where capitalism meets the criteria of resource sustainability. This will need addressing of course.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Timo » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 18:14:38

Thanks, everyone. I notice we have a few different, but well rationed opinions/predictions on the possibilities of REAL growth. Now, let me complicate the questions even more. Let's assume that some level of growth is possible, be it 3% or even 0.5%. It is absolutely correct that the grid and transportation infrastructure, water lines, building habits, etc... must be undertaken, which presumably would cause some level of economic growth. However, under this assumption, what do you all see as the correlation between economic growth and our standard of living? Does local food equate to a standard of living currently enjoyed? Does higher density in cities equate to an increased standard of living? Who's standards will we choose to make this inevitable decision?

On a personal note, i can easily see going from 2 cars down to one (even an electric), starting my own business within walking distance from home, making less money than i do currently, and enjoying a greater standard of living. It would even constitute a higher quality of life for me and my family. But, this altered lifestyle would probablty not be equated with national economic recovery.

Suss it!
Timo
 

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 18:25:34

Growth is possible as long as the resources last, and as far we can figure out how to be efficient to stretch those resources as far as possible.

Nature demands equilibrium -- if we outgrow our resources then there will be a dieoff, and voila with less people around there won't be a shortage anymore. Oil is pretty much the only thing that can't be replaced -- trees grow back, ecologies recover with time. Even ice ages and warming periods come and go and man has survived those in the past.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 18:34:35

Sixstrings wrote: trees grow back, ecologies recover with time.



It takes nature approximately 1000 years to produce one inch of topsoil.

Animals and plants which have gone extinct do not "recover."
Ludi
 

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 18:38:17

Your fingernails grow approximately 3 cm each year.
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 26616
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 03:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Timo » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 18:55:51

2042??? What happened to 2012?
Timo
 

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 19:09:28

Timo wrote:Thanks, everyone. I notice we have a few different, but well rationed opinions/predictions on the possibilities of REAL growth. Now, let me complicate the questions even more. Let's assume that some level of growth is possible, be it 3% or even 0.5%. It is absolutely correct that the grid and transportation infrastructure, water lines, building habits, etc... must be undertaken, which presumably would cause some level of economic growth. However, under this assumption, what do you all see as the correlation between economic growth and our standard of living? Does local food equate to a standard of living currently enjoyed? Does higher density in cities equate to an increased standard of living? Who's standards will we choose to make this inevitable decision?

On a personal note, i can easily see going from 2 cars down to one (even an electric), starting my own business within walking distance from home, making less money than i do currently, and enjoying a greater standard of living. It would even constitute a higher quality of life for me and my family. But, this altered lifestyle would probablty not be equated with national economic recovery.

Suss it!

8) You're going to have to clarify what you mean by standard of living. The current standard of dollars of income per year per capita is inadequate. How about how many hours per year you have to work to keep a roof over your head and food on the table. If you drop from two cars down to one and walk to work is your standard really reduced? Is spending two hours a day stuck in traffic listening to pundits on the radio spout propaganda a high standard of living.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby vision-master » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 19:14:10

Timo wrote:2042??? What happened to 2012?


Well, 2012 will be time of the change, will we adjust? If not.......

Image

Image

http://www.cropcircleconnector.com/anas ... 2007o.html
vision-master
 

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby americandream » Mon 22 Nov 2010, 19:59:23

Timo wrote:Thanks, everyone. I notice we have a few different, but well rationed opinions/predictions on the possibilities of REAL growth. Now, let me complicate the questions even more. Let's assume that some level of growth is possible, be it 3% or even 0.5%. It is absolutely correct that the grid and transportation infrastructure, water lines, building habits, etc... must be undertaken, which presumably would cause some level of economic growth. However, under this assumption, what do you all see as the correlation between economic growth and our standard of living? Does local food equate to a standard of living currently enjoyed? Does higher density in cities equate to an increased standard of living? Who's standards will we choose to make this inevitable decision?

On a personal note, i can easily see going from 2 cars down to one (even an electric), starting my own business within walking distance from home, making less money than i do currently, and enjoying a greater standard of living. It would even constitute a higher quality of life for me and my family. But, this altered lifestyle would probablty not be equated with national economic recovery.

Suss it!


Anything is possible provided we can preserve the annual bottom line in capitalism. However, in the event of the tweaks resulting in a zero to minus return on investment, clearly there will be a flight of capital into hoarding and the onset of nationalisation as private property is nationalised.

One's focus must always be on the return on investment when contemplating adjustments to the operation of the market, for whatever reason.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Timo » Tue 23 Nov 2010, 18:37:16

I'm obviously not the only one frustrated by reality and society's absolute demand to ignore it. Perhaps the worst decision i've ever made was to become a city planner. I clearly remember my 2nd grade teacher back in the 70's state that the world would run out of oil within our lifetimes. Well, we won't run out, but she was absolutely tuned into the US PO in '73. Now that i realize, much to my co-worker's chagrin, that economic growth is a dead issue, i've been trying to pursuade folks in these parts to focus on quality instead of quantity. Brick streets is a perfect example. When was the last time a brick street needed to be resurfaced? Now, how about asphalt? Every 15 to 20 years? Brick streets last for at least a century. Sheet! Even the Roman highways are still around. Sadly, everyone sees technologies used in the past as "unfeasible" today. Someday, probably within my lifetime, they'll see that i was right all along. (That was snark!)
Timo
 

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 23 Nov 2010, 18:56:36

Ludi wrote:It takes nature approximately 1000 years to produce one inch of topsoil.


That's nothing in geologic time.

Animals and plants which have gone extinct do not "recover."


Statistically, every species is bound for extinction -- either outright or they evolve into a new species. A few species have remained mostly unchanged, but it's just a matter of time.

But of course I agree with the gist of what you're saying; living in a wasteland isn't fun so yeah conservation is important. BUT.. the Earth would recover without us and be just fine.
User avatar
Sixstrings
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 15160
Joined: Tue 08 Jul 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Is REAL Economic Growth Possible?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 23 Nov 2010, 19:05:33

Sixstrings wrote:the Earth would recover without us and be just fine.


Yes, but being human, we probably are somewhat concerned about how humans will do. The Earth doesn't care about us. I'm not sure that's a reason we shouldn't care about us either. You seem to be arguing that we shouldn't be concerned about how we damage the Earth's life systems because they will go on without us. Maybe I'm misunderstanding you. Or maybe I'm just sick to death of people repeating ad nauseum "the Earth will be fine" as if that is relevant somehow. :roll:
Ludi
 

When Economic Growth Indicates Failure

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 20 Jan 2018, 18:29:28

Nothing can be duller than listening to an economist or other policy expert pontificate endlessly on such metrics as gross domestic product, stock market prices, employment, and consumer confidence. Most of all they talk about GDP: Rising GDP is good; falling GDP is bad. But as a measure of economic activity, GDP is what it says it is: a gross number. It doesn’t measure how money and wealth circulates through a system, what use it is put to, how the rewards of its use are distributed. It just counts how much comes out of the spigot at the end of the pipe. This completely avoids taking into account what may be the most important indicator of economic health: equality. Epidemiological studies demonstrate that equality is essential to a host of physical, mental, and social health outcomes. Societies that are more equal


When Economic Growth Indicates Failure
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 9292
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 57 guests