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Is peak oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 18:33:43

onlooker wrote:Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world.


Who is "we"? You got a frog in your pocket?

And according to the likes of you and pstarr, we are a decade PAST peak oil. Would you care to revise that particular "belief" before pretending it will mean anything different the NEXT time it happens? "Different" meaning "supply response to price stops functioning"? NEXT time? Maybe?

onlooker wrote: And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz


Isn't David Korowicz the screwup that Futilist was pimping before he got banned for being as ignorant as Cliffhanger?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby spike » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 07:58:47

Quote from Richard Miller, 2014: And remember in the meantime, when people say “peak oil is dead,” ask them “has the price gone down?”
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014- ... il-supply/
Has he followed up on this? Mike
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 11:48:52

Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 13:42:24

onlooker wrote:You prefer to get the comforting MSM info, I prefer to get the truth/reality. See my signature

Honestly. If you think random blogs and the doomer sites like zerohedge, etc. constitute "reality" more than the admittedly imperfect MSM, then get some help.

But I know, you won't understand this more than any religious zealot, etc. who knows the "truth" better than everyone else.

Good luck with your reality.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 18:07:34

Revi - "Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on." You are running the risk of having yourself tossed into the troll pile with such simplistic and UNDEFENDED statements. As I pointed out global peak oil is nothing more then a statistical metric. A metric that we may have reached already or is still ahead of us.

Thus it is neither "alive" or "dead". It is just a point in time that we may have already reached or is still ahead of us. If ahead of us perhaps just a few years or a few decades or a 50 years or 100 years, etc. So unless one subscribes to an infinite supply of oil GPO will be reached eventually. If we haven't passed that point I time already.

Perhaps by "dead" you mean the concern over reaching that point in time should be "dead" if that point in time is so far in the future it should be of little concern to anyone today with regards to its effect on them. I might concede that position. Except it is a poor position IMHO. Do I really need to list the traumas various parts of the global economies have suffered from the Peak Oil Dynamic whether we have reached GPO yet or not.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 20:33:19

I think we have not got to peak oil yet.The real peak will come when after a shortage in supply occurs and lasts long enough for increased drilling and exploration ,in response to the higher prices, fails to increase supply. Once that reality sets in where in spite of everything the oil drillers can do they can't increase the total produced or even keep up with the decline in old fields the major (I hope not panic) sets in.When that will happen depends on how accurate the KSA a,Iraq , and Russian reserves have been stated.
If you believe what the say it is decades away. If you think they are lying it might be next week.
Edit I'll lace the typos where they are so you can laugh at my fat fingered typing.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 21:24:03

spike wrote:Quote from Richard Miller, 2014: And remember in the meantime, when people say “peak oil is dead,” ask them “has the price gone down?”
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014- ... il-supply/
Has he followed up on this? Mike


I haven't seen anything from Miller attempting to touch economics. Have you?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 21:30:08

Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.


Hey, some of us are right with you to ban the etp sock puppets, or at least restrict their nonsense to a dedicated thread, but this place is pretty non group think when it comes to peak oil nowadays, so they will probably keep going. Use the ignore button perhaps? Although I philosophically disagree with it, but some seem to find comfort in erasing from their consciousness any idea they don't already agree with.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 22:17:21

It's more logical to look at it not in terms of price or production per se but production per capita, based on the assumption that a global capitalist economy needs a growing global middle class.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 03:01:50

Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead,.... I used to like this site.


When I first came to this site, there was a lot of "doom" in expecting a imminent peaking of oil production. Yet, within all that "doom" there was a lot of optimism about things that we could do to help mitigate the impact. Many of the suggestions were small things such as ripping up driveways or how to drive to reduce fuel consumption ('hypermileing'').

I miss that optimism. For myself some of it is gone as I have already implemented several changes to deal with the "low hanging fruit" of conservation and switching to a (slightly?) lower FF consumption, and I have come near to the limits of what I can do without a complete change of lifestyle (and total rebuilding of where I live).

While I rejoice that the collapse has not happened yet, this is tainted by the idea that "the higher it rises the further it will fall" will apply to oil/gas production (as well as population figures) so maybe I am seeing a bleaker future than I did 10 or so year ago...10+ years of time society as a whole has wasted.


In the past year or so the doom posting has risen (one theory I have that it is in response to posters who spend a lot of time trying to discredit this site :oops: ). Mostly this doom has centered on the maths and assumptions of ETP, but with it I don't see much of a feeling that things can be done to mitigate....it is like a depression has settled on this forum with no glimmer of hope, except to deny that there will ever be a peaking in oil (+ oil substitutes) production.

[/rant]
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 14:48:05

AdamB wrote:
Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.


Hey, some of us are right with you to ban the etp sock puppets, or at least restrict their nonsense to a dedicated thread, but this place is pretty non group think when it comes to peak oil nowadays, so they will probably keep going. Use the ignore button perhaps? Although I philosophically disagree with it, but some seem to find comfort in erasing from their consciousness any idea they don't already agree with.


I wasn't talking about the etp people. At least they are talking about oil.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 19:02:49

Revi wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.


Hey, some of us are right with you to ban the etp sock puppets, or at least restrict their nonsense to a dedicated thread, but this place is pretty non group think when it comes to peak oil nowadays, so they will probably keep going. Use the ignore button perhaps? Although I philosophically disagree with it, but some seem to find comfort in erasing from their consciousness any idea they don't already agree with.


I wasn't talking about the etp people. At least they are talking about oil.


Only tangentially. As they freely admit, they use SOME oil production information (having excluded the info they don't like), exclude the main bulk of USGS estimates (and even then use only the old stuff) because the last thing they need is MORE oil (hence the exclusions rather than full accounting), make up an equation that they admit is just a best fit (again to SOME of the information) and has no predictive ability, and kick out some random outputs. And suckers fall for it, plus it may have generated them a little coin, because of said suckers.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Anniversary of the Trump Presidency Part One: Peak Oil and t

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 21 Jan 2018, 21:28:04

Click to download the audio (MP3 format) As these words go to publication, millions are expected to take to the streets in centres across the United States, Canada and around the world, all in demonstrations timed with the anniversary of President Trump’s inauguration. The thrust of the Womens’ March on Washington and its various affiliates is getting more women involved in electoral politics and ratcheting up the voter-turn-out as the mid-term Congressional elections approach. Healing social divides, most notably around gender, sexual orientation, race, and immigration seem to be the defining issues motivating citizens to action. Interestingly, there seems to be less attention paid to urgent human security concerns related to military interventions, surveillance culture, and economic upheaval. By and large, elected representatives are prisoners to other forces entrenched in society. In particular, the various corporate lobbies, or ‘special interests’ arguably have much more


Anniversary of the Trump Presidency Part One: Peak Oil and the Deep State
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 21 Jan 2018, 22:13:47

What if they threw a march and nobody cared?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 22 Jan 2018, 11:04:09

Subjectivist wrote:What if they threw a march and nobody cared?


Isn't that already the situation? The only sort of protests that make an impact these days are online social shaming campaigns like #MeToo. The frivolity of #MeToo (in proportion to its huge mindshare on the public stage) in its own way can be construed as a sign that peak oil is dead (or at least lying in wait) since on the order of Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, a bad date is far less of an issue than the prospect of losing the necessities oil provides.

Peak oil will be alive again when we see this sort of thing crop up again.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 22 Jan 2018, 11:36:17

My view is that "peak oil" is not dead just postponed by the advent of fracking shale beds. As long as expanded fracking can keep pace with the decline of legacy fields it will be BAU. Eventually we will get to a point when throwing on extra drill rigs into anywhere that is left to drill will not replace the decline in both the legacy fields and those already fully fracked out shale beds with their rapid decline rates and then Peak oil will rise like a Phoenix.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 22 Jan 2018, 17:25:58

vt - And as predictable as the next sun rise: here comes the Rockman and the POD. Same song...new verse. Why I will always prefer the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) to "PO". While it's difficult for some to see $30/bbl in PO it's clearly a part of the dynamic we've experienced. No different the $146/bbl oil. Pick any feedback loop and it's much easier to fit it into the POD then PO.

IOW high/low oil prices, high/low rig counts, high/low global oil production rates, etc: all part of the path we're HEADING towards PO. And the extremes of those various components of the POD are what hit the headlines. And the actual date of global PO? It probably won't even be confirmed until may decades after it is reached. And on that date we might have had high or low oil prices, high or low rig count, economic stability or recession, etc.

PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 22 Jan 2018, 18:43:21

ROCKMAN wrote:vt - And as predictable as the next sun rise: here comes the Rockman and the POD. Same song...new verse. Why I will always prefer the POD (Peak Oil Dynamic) to "PO". While it's difficult for some to see $30/bbl in PO it's clearly a part of the dynamic we've experienced. No different the $146/bbl oil. Pick any feedback loop and it's much easier to fit it into the POD then PO.

IOW high/low oil prices, high/low rig counts, high/low global oil production rates, etc: all part of the path we're HEADING towards PO. And the extremes of those various components of the POD are what hit the headlines. And the actual date of global PO? It probably won't even be confirmed until may decades after it is reached. And on that date we might have had high or low oil prices, high or low rig count, economic stability or recession, etc.

PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.

I can't imagine a real peak oil, where high prices fail to increase supply and a decline in supply persists in site of industry efforts to increase the supply will not forever change the economies of the world. We have not got there yet but that does not mean we will not get there at an unknown time in the future and then the real turmoil begins. Everything before that is BAU and everything after that is uncharted territory where all the old rules no longer apply.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 22 Jan 2018, 21:57:32

ROCKMAN wrote:PO "dead"? Who cares? The POD is very much alive and affecting (for the good or the bad) every person on the planet every day.


Hey, just through a D at the end and EVERYTHING becomes peak oil! High prices, low prices, happy motoring, drill-baby-drill. How convenient.

Image

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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