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Is peak oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 15:40:38

The premise of the question is bonkers. Oil is a limited resource. So a peaking and subsequent reduction in its production was always a foregone conclusion
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 17:50:56

harrisonlw wrote:I feel like this thread is long overdue.


Far longer if you happened to be one of the folks who never fell for this particular Rapture event back when peak oil was happening (Thanksgiving Day, 2005 or so).

harrisonlw wrote:Basically, my question is: is peak oil dead?


Not the axiomatic, finite resource, start at zero, peak somewhere sometime, return to zero part. The Rapture part, gold buggery, gardening/permaculture saves the world, solar panels won't stop the mutant zombie bikers from stealing your daughter, yeah, all of that was garbage before, and most have figured that out.

harrisonlw wrote:Going back to the main question, I suspect that most agree that conventional oil production peaked years ago, but that's not what I'm referring to when I talk about peak oil. The focus seems to have shifted from peak supply to peak demand. Is PD more of a threat to oil than PS?


Define conventional oil, because you really don't know what it is, and it is just a cherry picking event by peak oilers anyway to not have to admit that they are both oil and economically ignorant..which caused most of this problem in the first place.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 17:53:07

onlooker wrote:The premise of the question is bonkers. Oil is a limited resource. So a peaking and subsequent reduction in its production was always a foregone conclusion


The only axiomatic part of the entire game. So why all the hysteria about TEOTWAWKI nonsense from BELIEVERS like you? It makes it all creepy, the zealots bringing in the religious aspects of their belief system.

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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 18:15:58

Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world. And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 22:28:08

onlooker wrote:Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world. And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz

David Korowicz. Gee. Another doomer who even has his own website. Yeah, I can imagine why you want to get collapse info from him. :roll:

Is citing mainstream sources against your religion?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 01:22:32

You prefer to get the comforting MSM info, I prefer to get the truth/reality. See my signature
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 11:30:19

onlooker wrote:Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world.


Pontificating on a forum with a dozen active posters won't change that.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 16:03:53

Revi - Lots of butts to kick here but since I consider you a distant compadre I choose to kick your ass. LOL Peak oil is not a theory. It is a statistical parameter. And as such it can neither be alive or dead. The only question to answer is whether we've reached that final global statistical benchmark or not. And as the recent surge in US production proved it might take many decades to prove we've reached global peak oil.

And I don't worry much about how "oil" is defined. I'm a petroleum geologist of 4 decades and not once in all that time have I used a single bbl of crude oil. But I have used a sh*t load of products made from crude oil. And I didn't give a f*ck what the source of that oil was...just like 99.999% of the other consumers out there. All my motor fuel could come from processing fry grease from McDonalds. As long as gasoline is available and at a price I can afford I couldn't care less.

Which is why years ago I pointed out that some metric based on refinery products, such as gasoline and diesel, was the numbers to watch. Not completely unrelated to crude oil production stats but eliminated such arguments as defining or classifying various sources of "oil".

No, peak oil is not dead...it was never alive. somewhere out there (or just right behind us) the global peak oil daily production statistic exists. And that exact date will have little to no bearing on anyone's life compared to all the other aspects of the peak oil dynamic.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 04 Jan 2018, 17:33:43

onlooker wrote:Because we have NOT sufficiently prepared for a post peak oil world.


Who is "we"? You got a frog in your pocket?

And according to the likes of you and pstarr, we are a decade PAST peak oil. Would you care to revise that particular "belief" before pretending it will mean anything different the NEXT time it happens? "Different" meaning "supply response to price stops functioning"? NEXT time? Maybe?

onlooker wrote: And because the signs are numerous and tangible that our energetic/economic world system is approaching serious disruptions and systemic failures
See Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse by David Korowicz


Isn't David Korowicz the screwup that Futilist was pimping before he got banned for being as ignorant as Cliffhanger?
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby spike » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 06:58:47

Quote from Richard Miller, 2014: And remember in the meantime, when people say “peak oil is dead,” ask them “has the price gone down?”
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014- ... il-supply/
Has he followed up on this? Mike
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 10:48:52

Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 12:42:24

onlooker wrote:You prefer to get the comforting MSM info, I prefer to get the truth/reality. See my signature

Honestly. If you think random blogs and the doomer sites like zerohedge, etc. constitute "reality" more than the admittedly imperfect MSM, then get some help.

But I know, you won't understand this more than any religious zealot, etc. who knows the "truth" better than everyone else.

Good luck with your reality.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 17:07:34

Revi - "Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on." You are running the risk of having yourself tossed into the troll pile with such simplistic and UNDEFENDED statements. As I pointed out global peak oil is nothing more then a statistical metric. A metric that we may have reached already or is still ahead of us.

Thus it is neither "alive" or "dead". It is just a point in time that we may have already reached or is still ahead of us. If ahead of us perhaps just a few years or a few decades or a 50 years or 100 years, etc. So unless one subscribes to an infinite supply of oil GPO will be reached eventually. If we haven't passed that point I time already.

Perhaps by "dead" you mean the concern over reaching that point in time should be "dead" if that point in time is so far in the future it should be of little concern to anyone today with regards to its effect on them. I might concede that position. Except it is a poor position IMHO. Do I really need to list the traumas various parts of the global economies have suffered from the Peak Oil Dynamic whether we have reached GPO yet or not.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 19:33:19

I think we have not got to peak oil yet.The real peak will come when after a shortage in supply occurs and lasts long enough for increased drilling and exploration ,in response to the higher prices, fails to increase supply. Once that reality sets in where in spite of everything the oil drillers can do they can't increase the total produced or even keep up with the decline in old fields the major (I hope not panic) sets in.When that will happen depends on how accurate the KSA a,Iraq , and Russian reserves have been stated.
If you believe what the say it is decades away. If you think they are lying it might be next week.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 20:24:03

spike wrote:Quote from Richard Miller, 2014: And remember in the meantime, when people say “peak oil is dead,” ask them “has the price gone down?”
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014- ... il-supply/
Has he followed up on this? Mike


I haven't seen anything from Miller attempting to touch economics. Have you?
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 20:30:08

Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.


Hey, some of us are right with you to ban the etp sock puppets, or at least restrict their nonsense to a dedicated thread, but this place is pretty non group think when it comes to peak oil nowadays, so they will probably keep going. Use the ignore button perhaps? Although I philosophically disagree with it, but some seem to find comfort in erasing from their consciousness any idea they don't already agree with.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 05 Jan 2018, 21:17:21

It's more logical to look at it not in terms of price or production per se but production per capita, based on the assumption that a global capitalist economy needs a growing global middle class.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 02:01:50

Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead,.... I used to like this site.


When I first came to this site, there was a lot of "doom" in expecting a imminent peaking of oil production. Yet, within all that "doom" there was a lot of optimism about things that we could do to help mitigate the impact. Many of the suggestions were small things such as ripping up driveways or how to drive to reduce fuel consumption ('hypermileing'').

I miss that optimism. For myself some of it is gone as I have already implemented several changes to deal with the "low hanging fruit" of conservation and switching to a (slightly?) lower FF consumption, and I have come near to the limits of what I can do without a complete change of lifestyle (and total rebuilding of where I live).

While I rejoice that the collapse has not happened yet, this is tainted by the idea that "the higher it rises the further it will fall" will apply to oil/gas production (as well as population figures) so maybe I am seeing a bleaker future than I did 10 or so year ago...10+ years of time society as a whole has wasted.


In the past year or so the doom posting has risen (one theory I have that it is in response to posters who spend a lot of time trying to discredit this site :oops: ). Mostly this doom has centered on the maths and assumptions of ETP, but with it I don't see much of a feeling that things can be done to mitigate....it is like a depression has settled on this forum with no glimmer of hope, except to deny that there will ever be a peaking in oil (+ oil substitutes) production.

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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby baha » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 06:24:26

EdwinSm wrote:When I first came to this site, there was a lot of "doom" in expecting a imminent peaking of oil production. Yet, within all that "doom" there was a lot of optimism about things that we could do to help mitigate the impact. Many of the suggestions were small things such as ripping up driveways or how to drive to reduce fuel consumption ('hypermileing'').

I miss that optimism. For myself some of it is gone as I have already implemented several changes to deal with the "low hanging fruit" of conservation and switching to a (slightly?) lower FF consumption, and I have come near to the limits of what I can do without a complete change of lifestyle (and total rebuilding of where I live).

While I rejoice that the collapse has not happened yet, this is tainted by the idea that "the higher it rises the further it will fall" will apply to oil/gas production (as well as population figures) so maybe I am seeing a bleaker future than I did 10 or so year ago...10+ years of time society as a whole has wasted.


In the past year or so the doom posting has risen (one theory I have that it is in response to posters who spend a lot of time trying to discredit this site ). Mostly this doom has centered on the maths and assumptions of ETP, but with it I don't see much of a feeling that things can be done to mitigate....it is like a depression has settled on this forum with no glimmer of hope, except to deny that there will ever be a peaking in oil (+ oil substitutes) production.


Thank you ES, I agree 100%.
One of the reasons I started posting is to give a hopeful report. All the naysaying and doom around here is depressing. People need to realize taking our limitations to heart does not mean giving up.

Every little bit helps. There are endless lists of ways to mitigate your impact on the planet and reduce your dependence. I encourage everyone to pick one thing and do it...and then another :)

I also feel unrestful. My spider sense is tingling. The amount of decadence and disconnect in our society has risen to new levels. We are literally tearing ourselves apart instead of coming together. We will get what we ask for...

The predictive ability of ETP is BS. The thermodynamic principles are sound. We really are on the downhill slide of available energy but TPTB can play games with money and hide it a little longer. Timing the descent is a waste of time :)

As usual, ROCKMAN has the right level headed answer. Peak Oil is not a website or a philosophy, it is a metric. It will happen, may have already happened, and we will have to deal with it. When it happens is less important than how you plan to deal with it.

In fact it is on-going. You may not be heavily impacted for a while but you will eventually have to react. You should start planning now.

I am optimistic. I know enough people with brains and awareness that I feel we will think our way out of this. Cornyism implies BAU. Doomerism implies death and zombies. I think we will fall somewhere in the middle :)
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 13:48:05

AdamB wrote:
Revi wrote:Peak oil is dead, but the troll show goes on and on and on and on. I used to like this site.


Hey, some of us are right with you to ban the etp sock puppets, or at least restrict their nonsense to a dedicated thread, but this place is pretty non group think when it comes to peak oil nowadays, so they will probably keep going. Use the ignore button perhaps? Although I philosophically disagree with it, but some seem to find comfort in erasing from their consciousness any idea they don't already agree with.


I wasn't talking about the etp people. At least they are talking about oil.
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