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PeakOil is You

Is peak oil dead?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 21:42:30

onlooker, look at the stock price of National Commercial Bank of Saudi Arabia for the past year. Collapsed from 70.63 to 33 and is in total freefall headed to 0. The crockdoc tells us SA is making money at $10 price of oil...

SHOCKING NEWS UPDATE 2: shallow sand just stated that WW3 is ongoing with Shale Capitalism/Socialism vs Nuclear Communism/Fascism. BW may be a spy working for the other side.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/mexico-china-a ... ent-581798

shallow sand says:
09/22/2016 at 9:46 pm

"For those not suffering due to very low oil and gas prices, shale is about knocking OPEC and Russia on their heels, American ingenuity, capitalism, and other patriotic stuff. Stuff, by the way, that I acknowledge as being very important. "
2025 is the Year of The Oil Apocalypse when >15% decline rates hit ALL legacy giant old fields. It will be a Steel Bolt to the Head of Humanity.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 23:04:12

So KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Sep 2016, 23:43:18

onlooker wrote:So KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!


onlooker, I don't see any other hope than Solar--->Diesel Fuel Miracle Technologies.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 12:09:41

The recent absurd announcement by the Bank of Japan and todays posts by coffeeguyzz and by Reno Hightower confirms my suspicion that they are preventing Peak Oil by destroying the fiat currencies to try and destroy SA and Russia and Iran in the process. The real price of oil is something like $300 a barrel which would all be going to a new currency regime if it wasn't for shale drilling and WORTHLESS JUNK MONEY. The System is RAPIDLY CRASHING AND BURNING.

Coffeeguyzz says:
09/23/2016 at 10:09 am

Dennis

Kudos to you for your ongoing efforts in keeping this site active.

Addressing some of your points …

I never put much emphasis on EUR as it is both a contentious topic and completely ‘unprovable’ in the near term. People will tend to believe what they wish to be true.
However, just yesterday, Lynn Helms did say recent Bakken wells’ EURs have increased about 25%.
The indisputable increase in output from new wells will accelerate the revenue, no small fact when ATW in ND runs about $33/bbl.

On March 14, 2011, armor from KSA raced across the causeway and rescued the Al-Khalif regime in Bahrain from protestors, thus enabling the continuation of the incarceration, torture, and executions of several dissidents.
This is partly what is at stake here, Dennis.
When people accurately point out the very low lifting cost of KSA oil, that is both accurate and woefully beside the point in the bigger picture of things.
KSA has demonstrably hemorrhaged hundreds of billions of dollars in the past 24 months and is increasingly showing signs of societal discontent.

The stakes are literally life and death.

Regarding costs per foot, the Appalachian Basin operators need that metric as no pre-defined drilling spacing units exist.
Not only the size, but also the shape of designated production units – approved by state regulators – can vary wildly.
By any standards, a 30% reduction in cost, especially if repeatable and applicable in other basins, is a big deal.

Regarding the financials of the operators, my often stated view of not immersing myself in what is clearly a highly distressed situation, still holds … but
Didja see the most recent free cash flow graphic from Rune? With all the overwhelming financial negativity coming out of the Bakken, last few months were cash flow positive?

Ongoing drama with the highest stakes involved for all of us.
To repeat TT’s above comment, the O&G industry has fundamentally changed forever.


Reno Hightower says:
09/23/2016 at 11:38 am

Coffee

Just my 2 cents. I have seen first hand the DOMESTIC Oil and Gas Industry change forever, so I agree. I want to give a little background so you know where I am coming from. I am a small producer. I work closely with an operator and we put conventional Oil and Gas deals together all over the gulf coast. MS, LA and Texas. There is not a single resource play that has better economics than what I sell. I drill conventional deals. 4 way closures, pinchouts across a nose, reservoirs trapped up against a fault, etc. I use 2D and 3D and subsurface geology. I have a great geologist and geophysicist and we work on a shoestring. Selling deals I have seen the change. PE backed and Publicly traded companies will not drill conventional deals anymore. I had a discussion with a large publicly traded independent (VP of Land) about this and he admitted such. They get punished by the markets for drilling Exploration deals, regardless of how much money they lose in resource plays. These companies are mining companies. Nothing more. They tell themselves they are risk free, they just do not appreciate that they are shifting risk. From up front drill money to risk in commodity pricing. My wells are economical at much less than what they are. It is painfully clear.

My issue is the change and the complete lack of understanding of what we are facing. The money these companies spend every quarter without regard to the bottom line is staggering, and the bill will come due. That is an indisputable fact. Rig efficiency, increased Estimated (it is an estimate) UR and high IP’s have yet to make these companies profitable. When this bill comes due, this industry will have to eat a giant s&*! sandwich for the havoc it has reaked. and the destruction it has caused . And it is 100% on us as an industry.

The only number that counts is the bottom line and without a rebound in pricing, it will only get worse and the rebound will be that much harder

I say this for the same reason Mike and SS do. This is market distortion at its finest, and it when it corrects, EVERYONE, from producers to consumers (everyone in this country) will feel it. This will not end well.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 12:27:59

Starve hasn't the way to this outcome already been paved by moves by Iran, China, Russia and the BRICS to establish alternate oil bourses, petrocurrencies and a return to some sort of realistic accounting such as a return to the gold standard?
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 12:56:06

onlooker wrote:So KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!


Exsqueeze me?

I thought oil scarcity and prices going through the roof was supposed to be the curtain call for our way of life?
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 12:59:14

ennui2 wrote:
onlooker wrote:So KSA is collapsing and they are admitting that price may never go above $50 . Sounds like the curtain call for our way of life!


Exsqueeze me?

I thought oil scarcity and prices going through the roof was supposed to be the curtain call for our way of life?

I never specified what part of the peak oil dynamic would be the catalyst for our downfall. So you cannot quote me on that. :P
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 13:02:32

onlooker wrote:I never specified what part of the peak oil dynamic would be the catalyst for our downfall. So you cannot quote me on that. :P


Hey, if you want to say that both cheap and expensive oil results in doom, be my guest. Sure as hell smacks as someone who wants to sort of hedge his bets on predicting doom no matter what happens, but knock yourself out.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 13:11:23

Not quite, I am not totally on the side of the Etp crowd who maintain that prices will stay permanently low. I believe in the more general notion that we will have wild swings in price as we have had already. However, I expect the abrupt swings to take place within a generally downward trending price regime as the demand is suppressed permanently because of progressively less energy entering the economic system. At the end of the road though we may have very high priced oil for only a few scattered exclusive buyers.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 13:18:50

As long as you don't predict ETP zombies in 4 years, that almost sounds reasonable.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 23 Sep 2016, 13:24:23

ennui2 wrote:As long as you don't predict ETP zombies in 4 years, that almost sounds reasonable.

Thanks Ennui. Reasonable people can debate reasonably haha.
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Is Peak Oil dead? Not by a long shot! Remember Ladyfern?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 12:39:20

Preface. Oil is finite. Period. Don’t be fooled by news stories that peak oil is dead, or we have reached peak demand. They’re all nonsense. Gail Tverberg at ourfiniteworld.com is especially good at explaining this. Worse yet, what we have left has been and is not being drained as quickly as possible to pay the capital back, and that increases the amount of oil that will be left in the ground forever, which could have been produced with more responsible methods. But the very nature of capitalism is profits now, not 10 years from now. This article makes the case that there are lessons to be learned today from the gigantic 2001 giant Ladyfern natural gas reserves in Northeastern British Columbia. But due to the tragedy of the commons, where too many companies exploited this reservoir too quickly, much less was produced than


Is Peak Oil dead? Not by a long shot! Remember Ladyfern?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is Peak Oil dead? Not by a long shot! Remember Ladyfern?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 12:48:21

Oh this one was a great read!! A blogger with no experience in anything related to geology or oil field engineer referencing another blogger as a keen study of peak oil (having declared it in 2008) with her actuarial skills, and the first comment out of the gate is a riot!

Before alice deletes it I thought I should include it here as an appropriate and thoroughly accurate riposte.

what a wonderful story! It is amazing that one story like this seems to have more power than the other, documented and researched and published by real scientists, as to the direction that known oil and gas reserves move.

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155091

And of COURSE peak oil isn’t dead, as a matter of fact 2019 is the 100th anniversary of the first documented US peak oil call in 1919!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 11:21:32


The views expressed in this post are those of the author alone. This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review’s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components. (Click to enlarge) Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 – 2017 This analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels/day/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990. (Click to enlarge) Figure 2: Production Rate Change 2007 – 2016 The United States LTO patch is widely credited with having caused the oil price collapse of 2014. American production had risen by six


The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 11:22:44

Nice charts showing how easily the peak oilers were fooled by just a hesitation in oil production growth...and undoubtedly one induced by economics. Talk about the keystone cops of oil and gas.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Biggest Factors In Future Oil Production

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 11:32:43

AdamB wrote:Nice charts showing how easily the peak oilers were fooled by just a hesitation in oil production growth...and undoubtedly one induced by economics. Talk about the keystone cops of oil and gas.

Or an example of how TPTB are managing to keep the status quo going, far longer and more easily than doomers expect. Especially given that this history doesn't even include forced adaption to scarcity beyond some short term hiccups.

I still say that if we do run into a (real) downslope in production in the next decade or two, THEN you will see some very serious adoption of HEV's in the short term, with a rapid ramp-up in PHEV's and BEV's, since the economics will very quickly strongly favor them.

For example, how expensive would a $50,000 or even $70,000 EV really be compared to an ICE, if gasoline cost north of $10 a gallon, and such EV's had been proven realistically likely to last 3 or 4 decades (with a battery replacement or two)?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby aldente » Thu 28 Dec 2017, 01:21:54

it must have been a stillbirth to begin with ( hence MY personal favorite)
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 13:12:14

Peak oil isn't dead, but it's extremely unpopular. It's about the least popular theory out there. Which doesn't make it untrue, but right now it's about 12 years since it hit it's peak of popularity. It's just old enough to be unfashionable but not old enough to be cool again. In about 8 years it will be a vintage theory, and on it's way to being a golden oldie!
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 14:02:18

^^^^ +1
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Re: Is peak oil dead?

Unread postby aspera » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 14:56:28

Car Sales to Top 90 Million Globally for First Time: Results fueled by rebounds in Western Europe and emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia.

The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 2, 2018 2:17 p.m. ET

Global sales of passenger cars and trucks likely surpassed 90 million for the first time in 2017, the latest indicator that demand for conventional automobiles remains strong even as driverless cars and ride sharing get increasing attention.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/car-sales-to-top-90-million-globally-for-first-time-1514920642

Combine this with discovering less oil and thus producing less oil due to lack of discovery, and what could go wrong...
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