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Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 03 May 2019, 12:09:56

shortonoil wrote:
GPS positional accuracy has increased yearly since the first Satellite was launched. We build roads and bridges using survey grade GPS, something unheard of just 15 years ago.


As usual this idiot doesn't have a clue as to what is going on. Where did you read that, CNN, or Fox? The last three replacement satellites that where being sent up to replace existing and deteriorating systems blew up on the launch pad. The weakening of the Earth's magnetic field is making calibration an increasing difficult operation. The Earth's magnetic north pole is moving south by over 50 miles a year, and the magnetic field strength is falling by several percent per year. Peak Oil is not our only bad news. There is no law that bad news has to show up one item at a time. Then there is the little problem with an insurmountable debt burden.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ic_Bubbles


Shorty, I don't believe we have exchanged comments before, but I am getting tied of your BS. I also worked in the USCG when GPS was implemented, and used it to calibrate our LORAN-C transmissions.
The theoretical accuracy of non-augmented GPS is on the close order of two meters due to the variations in EMF propagation in the ionoshpere. The most common way of increasing GPS accuracy is via WAAS or Wide Area Augmentation System. Basicly that works by having a receiver in a position known with high accuracy (probably a surveyed position) which takes a GPS fix, compares it with the known position, and broadcasts the offset reading to the surrounding area. This typically reduces the error to less than one foot, and 3-5 inches close to the WAAS station. Nor is the WAAS technology expensive, both the tablet I am typing on and the $150 GPS in my Jeep contain GPS receiver chips which are WAAS enabled.

Granted, there are not WAAS stations everywhere. They are approximately as common as cellular services and tend to exist in the same areas. In the booneys and without WAAS you may have to settle for 2 meter accuracy.
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Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 03 May 2019, 13:08:09

Warren Buffet doesn't understand how inflation can be so low with today's fiscal and monetary policies.

Lagarde said that inflation is mysteriously low.

Well...they haven't heard about the Energy Halfway Point?

Oil prices have been rising this year. Usually rising oil prices leads to rising inflation. But not this time.

What if rising oil prices lead to deflation in commodity prices as the global economy slows down in response to rising oil prices?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5j3K29WkAA ... ame=medium
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 07 May 2019, 15:24:20

https://srsroccoreport.com/global-econo ... -declines/

Global Economic Growth In Serious Trouble When U.S. Shale Oil Peaks & Declines
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 08 May 2019, 10:32:55

onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/global-economic-growth-in-serious-trouble-when-u-s-shale-oil-peaks-declines/

Global Economic Growth In Serious Trouble When U.S. Shale Oil Peaks & Declines


And Steve has learned something new about the oil and gas business since the last 6 years of bad predictions on the topic, and that what he has learned is enough for him to make a correct claim? Finally?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 08 May 2019, 11:17:33

Greetings, Adam.
Hope all is going well with you.

Just to briefly pass on some recent developments - operations wise - in the upstream portion of this Shale Revolution ...
Extreme Limited Entry is the latest buzz phrase describing the maintenance of 1,500/2,000 psi fluid pressure from the wellbore face out the the expanding fracture tip. This high pressure greatly expands the area of fracture stimulation within which the massive amounts of small (micro proppant up to 100 mesh) proppant can enter, scour, and prop heretofore inaccessible rock.
This process is accomplished by cyclical pump rates, micro seismic monitoring, and the timely use of various diverters. These tools also enable HIGH control of the frac geometry.

The primary hydrocarbon recovery rate is now approaching 20%.
Articles from aogrdotcom from Oasis as well as the innovative Liberty Resources describe this in more detail.

The investor presentation from Whiting this week contained - for only the second time ever, to my eye - acknowledgement of the so called 'halo effect' that Bruce Oksol has been writing about for years.

Whiting's suits describe it as 'parent well uplift' and the conference call transcript has several mentions as the analysts seemed pretty surprised by it all.

Bottom line, hydrocarbon abundance will be had for quite some time.
People who say otherwise will continue to display their ignorance to a shrinking, increasingly blinded cohort of Disbelievers.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby dirtyharry » Wed 08 May 2019, 11:29:23

coffeeguyzz wrote:Greetings, Adam.
Hope all is going well with you.

Just to briefly pass on some recent developments - operations wise - in the upstream portion of this Shale Revolution ...
Extreme Limited Entry is the latest buzz phrase describing the maintenance of 1,500/2,000 psi fluid pressure from the wellbore face out the the expanding fracture tip. This high pressure greatly expands the area of fracture stimulation within which the massive amounts of small (micro proppant up to 100 mesh) proppant can enter, scour, and prop heretofore inaccessible rock.
This process is accomplished by cyclical pump rates, micro seismic monitoring, and the timely use of various diverters. These tools also enable HIGH control of the frac geometry.

The primary hydrocarbon recovery rate is now approaching 20%.
Articles from aogrdotcom from Oasis as well as the innovative Liberty Resources describe this in more detail.

The investor presentation from Whiting this week contained - for only the second time ever, to my eye - acknowledgement of the so called 'halo effect' that Bruce Oksol has been writing about for years.

Whiting's suits describe it as 'parent well uplift' and the conference call transcript has several mentions as the analysts seemed pretty surprised by it all.

Bottom line, hydrocarbon abundance will be had for quite some time.
People who say otherwise will continue to display their ignorance to a shrinking, increasingly blinded cohort of Disbelievers.

And as usual no talk as to what the cost is for all this . We will loose money, but no problem we will make it up in volume . Let us go mining for gold in the sea and look for rare earth metals in asteroids . As Gump said ^Stupid is what stupid does ^ .
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 08 May 2019, 13:58:11

And as usual no talk as to what the cost is for all this . We will loose money, but no problem we will make it up in volume . Let us go mining for gold in the sea and look for rare earth metals in asteroids . As Gump said ^Stupid is what stupid does ^ .


I'll bet Forest Gump knew how to spell "lose" though. :roll:

That aside please show us your calculations as to how the extra cost of this completion technique isn't offset by greater volume and greater recovery. Currently, wells in the Permian are costing around $7 MM drilled and completed and the completion piece makes up just less than half of that cost. If this completion technique increased completion costs by 20% (which is probably over the top) that would be an extra $600 K of costs per well. At current prices and assuming a netback somewhere in the $30 range that amounts to an extra 20,000 bbls of EUR. Given the average EUR has been increasing and is now somewhere close to 400 K bbls that is an increase of 5%.....something that is not out of the question. Another way of looking at it is a new completion would only have to result in an extra 150 bbls/d of production over the first 4.5 months to pay out. This sort of increase in IP and first 6 months production has been happening regularly over the past few years as technology and efficiencies improve.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 08 May 2019, 17:19:49

The additional cost for the parent well uplift is essentially zero as nothing is being done other than for some - (all?) - operators to pump water into the wellbore and pressurize to minimize intrusion from the offsets.

There is some increase in proppant cost for the new wells but this extra material is going to prop a gazillion new, ultra tiny cracks from which oil will slowly flow into the wellbore for decades.

A big upside - costwise - that Liberty is focusing on is reducing the stage count (big savings there) while increasing the perf clusters.
A goal is to identify and segregate the rock into somewhat homogeneous stages vis a vis frac pressure breakdown. This enables a somewhat uniform degree of pressure with which to extend the frac half lengths up to the desired spot.
Along the way, effectively employing diverters, the Stimulated Reservoir Volume (SRV) is rubbilized to an extensive degree.

If anyone does not recognize the favorable economics of +$60 WTI, they may as well stick with Steve, Rune, Mr. Short and the rest of the Know Nothings who, bizarrely, seem to never go away.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 09 May 2019, 01:08:27

Mr. Short is trying to explain that energy and economy are tied to together...even to you know it all men.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6FPf5ZXoAA ... me=900x900
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 09 May 2019, 04:05:01

Yoshua wrote:Mr. Short is trying to explain that energy and economy are tied to together...even to you know it all men.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6FPf5ZXoAA ... me=900x900


I wonder how the 1970's Mesmer plan would show up on that graph? They were building 15 nuclear power plants a year at one point, and replaced 75% of their grid with clean nuclear within 15 years. (63% of that in just 10 years!) Or a massive shift into EV's / public transport & New Urbanism / other clean tech? What would that look like? Which is causal? Everything I read about the GFC was that because the economy imploded due to the Big Short, demand for travel decreased. It's interesting that oil demand dropped a full QUARTER and America did not go Mad Max. Imagine that? ;-)
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 09 May 2019, 10:53:30

Yoshua wrote:Mr. Short is trying to explain that energy and economy are tied to together...even to you know it all men.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D6FPf5ZXoAA ... me=900x900


No one argues that energy and economy are tied together. Reality, precedent, data, logic and industry practice proves that Short doesn't know anything about that reality, precedent, data, logic and industry practice as it relates to energy and the economy.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 09 May 2019, 11:07:26

The Northern Ghwar Status Indicator, Boeing Stock, is totally collapsing. Imports from KSA have reached all time lows.

Concorde: Broke
Space Shuttle: Broke
Boeing: Going Broke

Conclusion: Grow feathers...be a Birdman.
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 09 May 2019, 11:14:48

coffeeguise: "Look at all the No Diesel Fuel"
coffeeguise: "Look at all the hydrocarbons we are selling for peanuts"
coffeeguise: "Look at the stock CNX I used to promote that has been tanking in the past 6 months"
coffeeguise: "Look at the 0.50 cent penny stocks turning into 0.01 literal penny stocks"

Doomed.
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 09 May 2019, 14:34:12

And for the adults in the room, I will direct your attention to an arena that seems to be poised to be every bit as disruptive, every bit as 'coming out of nowhere' as this past decade's history of LTO ... namely, the emergence of natgas in displacing its hydrocarbon cousin, awl.

That natgas is pushing competitors - particularly coal and nuclear - out of the power generation market is widely recognized.

Seemingly under the radar, transportation applications are in the early stages of favoring natgas (in CNG or LNG form) as stunningly rapid advances are being implemented up and down the chain of handling, storing, transporting.

The decision by Cheniere to scrap original plans for traditional, massive trains for their Stage 3 operation in Corpus Christi in favor of 7 mid scale units should be a wake up call to future trends in liquefaction.

The FSRUs that are rapidly being placed in Bangledesh, Brazil, Turkey, Pakistan, to name just a few places, are a game changing mechanism to spread natgas use globally.
Heck, even Australia is setting up an FSRU in Port Kembla next year that may import LNG from the USA if economics are favorable.

The downsized, modular storage and transportation containers are approaching propane-like status, enabling places like Fairbanks to use this inexpensive fuel.

Vehicular transportation will be the ultimate frontier for natgas and the innovations in the field of Metal Organic Frameworks ensures that fueling a vehicle right in one's driveway with residential supplied natgas is just around the corner.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 May 2019, 17:45:20

rockdoc123 wrote:I'll bet Forest Gump knew how to spell "lose" though. :roll:


Yep.

Seems like anytime someone here tries to tell another poster he's dumb, he commits a stupid grammatical or spelling error in the process. Every...single...time.
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 May 2019, 17:51:45

coffeeguyzz wrote:Vehicular transportation will be the ultimate frontier for natgas and the innovations in the field of Metal Organic Frameworks ensures that fueling a vehicle right in one's driveway with residential supplied natgas is just around the corner.


I think if we weren't on the cusp of the EV wave then CNG might become a viable fuel for personal transportation post-peak given a continued supply of fracked gas and a dwindling supply of oil but I don't see it being more than a bit player going forward. For buses and long haul trucking, maybe, but not personal autos.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 09 May 2019, 18:17:55

asg70 wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:I'll bet Forest Gump knew how to spell "lose" though. :roll:


Yep.

Seems like anytime someone here tries to tell another poster he's dumb, he commits a stupid grammatical or spelling error in the process. Every...single...time.

As though grammar and spelling were a huge indicator of Intelligence. :razz:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 09 May 2019, 18:43:53

onlooker wrote:As though grammar and spelling were a huge indicator of Intelligence.


They are. Remember GW Bush and his continued use of "nukyooler"? how about Trump and his covfefe and "bigly"? If you can't see a connection between how you write and how smart you are then you're really, um, not that smart.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 09 May 2019, 20:07:59

Asg
With the capabilities of adsorption (with a "d", not "b") approaching liquid status in that a natgas fuel tank is equivalent to a 17 gallon gasoline tank, the competition might be closer than one would think.

Cutting edge MOFs the size of a large pea now have internal surface area of 2 football fields (10,000 square yards).
Every pore of surface can hold methane.

Having said that, the advances of electric vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells are also unfolding at an astonishing pace.
(Nikola Motor is offering 1 million miles free fuel with their Class 8 trucks to be introduced to the market shortly).

Whatever the future brings, I believe the concerns surrounding oil scarcity will prove to be grossly unfounded.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 10 May 2019, 06:31:37

coffeeguyzz wrote:Having said that, the advances of electric vehicles powered by hydrogen fuel cells


Wow, you really are into underdogs aren't you?
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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