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Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 12:34:49

I'm sure you mean Joan Baez....illiterate moron.

No, Joan was a little Biased, and she wasn't the Flower Child she made out to be. She looked and acted like the 40 miles of bad road that she was. She and Carly Simon could have been candidates at a witch trial.

Has U.S. shale oil entered a death spiral?


Yes it has. Shale production will go into reverse this year.. The decline in existing wells is greater than the number of new wells that can be brought on line to compensate. Because of Shale's high decline rate, to keep increasing its production level, it would soon require an infinite number of drilling rigs, and fracking crews to do it. The amount of new production capacity needed is a simple mathematical progression that is controlled by the decline rate.

December 2018,
US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day*1
Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The age of Shale is over, and the remainder of the oil age is following close behind!


1) https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
2) http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 15:14:45

It seems that Maduro has just given the order to arm at least 2 million civilian supporters to fight against the opposition and any US/Colombian attempted invasion. 50,000 civilians should be given weapons in the next few days, and the 2 million mark should be reached by the start of April. The Venezuela thing is starting to look like a Black Swan event (or maybe a White Elephant).

The idea is to form and train so-called "defence units" in all districts and cities of Venezuela. A branch of the Army will train civilians during this time.

https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/30 ... -venezuela
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 15:51:48

Observerbrb wrote:It seems that Maduro has just given the order to arm at least 2 million civilian supporters to fight against the opposition and any US/Colombian attempted invasion. 50,000 civilians should be given weapons in the next few days, and the 2 million mark should be reached by the start of April. The Venezuela thing is starting to look like a Black Swan event (or maybe a White Elephant).

The idea is to form and train so-called "defence units" in all districts and cities of Venezuela. A branch of the Army will train civilians during this time.

https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/30 ... -venezuela

Considering they only have 123,000 military personnel including reserves I doubt if they have a million weapons on hand to pass out to civilians and wouldn't trust them with arms anyway.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 16:19:15

No, Joan was a little Biased, and she wasn't the Flower Child she made out to be. She looked and acted like the 40 miles of bad road that she was. She and Carly Simon could have been candidates at a witch trial. 


As usual change the subject when you are caught displaying ignorance….not sure how you would know anything about her given you thought she was Jon Bias….. :roll:

Yes it has. Shale production will go into reverse this year.. The decline in existing wells is greater than the number of new wells that can be brought on line to compensate. Because of Shale's high decline rate, to keep increasing its production level, it would soon require an infinite number of drilling rigs, and fracking crews to do it. The amount of new production capacity needed is a simple mathematical progression that is controlled by the decline rate.


Read my post up thread. As I point out (for the second time) the current number of active rigs or just a hundred more should easily maintain production levels. You continue to post the same thing and ignore completely any posts to the contrary. Repeating the same nonsense over and over again doesn’t make it any more correct. You have very little understanding of decline in unconventional wells, you seem to think it is one rate which is as far from the truth as can be.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby pessimisticoptimist » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 16:47:53

we will see this year more than likely whether the red queen can keep up.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 17:41:24

we will see this year more than likely whether the red queen can keep up.


the problem here is some seem to think oil and gas companies will pursue unconventionals at an ever increasing rate regardless of the price.

A certain amount of production is hedged but when they move through the hedges then activity decreases purposefully as a response to price. So the fact that activity levels decrease in the short term is commodity price related, not because there is a lack of opportunity.

As was the case following the price collapse of 2014 through 2016 oil and gas activity related to the unconventionals decreased substantially and then as price rebounded in 2017 that activity level increased resulting in the record production levels of 2018. If price continues to rise so will activity.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 29 Jan 2019, 23:51:13

onlooker wrote: Has U.S. shale oil entered a death spiral?


https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2 ... RHR0AG7wx4


So...a former board member of ASPO-USA....said organization which collapsed because the same claims didn't work out last time....trying to get the band back together perhaps?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 10:47:41

the current number of active rigs or just a hundred more should easily maintain production levels.


So what you are saying is that 852 rigs producing 697 barrels per day per rig (which equals 593.8 thousand barrels per day) is greater than a decline of 1.43 mb/d. There you have it folks, 2 + 2 = 5.; and it must be true because you read it on the internet! Aren't you just simply amazed that they know in advance just how really stupid you are? They have such tremendous capabilities because they are using the Force! The Jeti have returned, and we are saved!

So now back to the real world:

If US oil companies take over control of the Venezuela fields, which it appears is almost a certainty, can that save the US from the oil Armageddon (also know as an ERoEI of 6.9:1, or the "dead state")?

Well in brief; sort of; yes:

By mixing Shale, used as a diluent, and Venezuela heavy they can come up with a crude with an ERoEI of about 9:1. It is processable, and we know that because that is what is already being done. It will still be a rather low energy source, but probably enough to at least maintain the present system. The economic miracle of the 1960's that was produced by the vast supply of high energy continental US oil with an ERoEI oil of 62:1 won't repeat. We will wind up with a very slow, to no growth economy. By our estimates to put such an operation into full force the US oil industry will have to invest $100 billion in additional drilling equipment to supply the additional LTO that will be needed. Even though the LTO production will remain a loss for the industry the sale of the finished crude will make up for the difference.

The advantage of the Venezuela fields is their size. The US should be able to produce almost 20 mb/d day of finished product from them for the next 100 years. The question mark is how fast will the cost of producing LTO rise as the present working formations are depleted out. In spite of the never ending bullshit spun by the Shale industry, their costs have been increasing, and will continue to do so. Because of their habitual lying, and massively applied financial wizardry we don't know by how much?

If the Federal government doesn't screw this up, in their usual fashion, it will be good news for the polar bears, and the people of Venezuela. The West Sak will get dumped (sorry Alaska) and with US oil companies running the show, the Venezuelan people will get some food and medicine. The US will get an adequate, but marginally usable crude supply.

Now the next question is what is the US going to do as the rest of the industrialized world falls apart around its ears?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 11:22:01

So what you are saying is that 852 rigs producing 697 barrels per day per rig (which equals 593.8 thousand barrels per day) is greater than a decline of 1.43 mb/d. There you have it folks, 2 + 2 = 5.; and it must be true because you read it on the internet! Aren't you just simply amazed that they know in advance just how really stupid you are? They have such tremendous capabilities because they are using the Force! The Jeti have returned, and we are saved!


Read what I wrote you moron. You have completely ignored the fact that the rapid declines in unconventional are only in the first 24 to 36 months with the remainder experiencing a period of very low decline. I have pointed to this numerous times, it is supported not only by rock mechanic theory but also by well histories in the older basins. As I pointed out the base production that would be declining at a very, very low rate creates a relatively flat low angle wedge which new wells build up onto. If that portion of 8 MMbbl/d is 3 MMbbl/d then you only need to replace 5 MMbbl/d. A given rig can D&C around 20 wells a year on average and if the average per year production in the first year for these various wells is around 250 bbl/d (which is reasonable given the IP rates in the latest wells have been steadily rising as is well documented by the various regulatory bodies) then you only need 1000 rigs drilling in order to get to the additional 5 MMbbl/d. It is that simple. The diagram I posted is from an article (which clearly you didn’t bother to read either because you don’t actually understand any of it or you just don’t care to read anything that might disagree with you’re ridiculous assertions) is based on actual data collected from the regulators and it backs up what I have said all along about the flat base production that is the nature of unconventional wells that have reached the second stage exponential decline as being one of the reasons oil and gas companies went into the unconventional business in the first place…..zero exploration risk, early payout due to high initial IP and predictable cashflow in the later period when CAPEX is essentially zero and OPEX is quite low.

By mixing Shale, used as a diluent, and Venezuela heavy they can come up with a crude with an ERoEI of about 9:1. It is processable, and we know that because that is what is already being done. It will still be a rather low energy source, but probably enough to at least maintain the present system. The economic miracle of the 1960's that was produced by the vast supply of high energy continental US oil with an ERoEI oil of 62:1 won't repeat. We will wind up with a very slow, to no growth economy.


Yeah if anyone in the world based business decisions on EROEI we would be in trouble. Luckily those with any brains whatsoever base their decisions on profitability. The crack spread related to buying Venezuela crude, blending it with lighter crude to match the deep cut refineries needs in the southern US seaboard and then selling products varies all the time but in general it isn’t much different now than it was when the US first started importing large volumes of Venezuela crude in the nineties. The FOB price of Venezuela crude follows world oil prices closely (with the appropriate discount) with it being around $100/bbl back in 2012 and $45/bbl in early 2017. If it was a lot different there would be no interest in importing Venezuela crude. And in terms of EROEI your calculations are just basically stupid. Given Venezuela has not been investing in their oil fields the cost burden of a produced barrel has dropped over the years, not increased (i.e essentially zero CAPEX and producing OPEX only). The Venezuela gov’t fired most of the PDVSA workers so overhead is also down. A barrel of oil produced today from Venezuela yields the exact same energy as a barrel produced thirty years ago…it is the same oil. But costs have dropped not increased. This doesn’t result in an increased EROEI unless you are maths challenged, not that it matters because decisions have never been nor every will be made in the oil industry based on a calculation of EROEI.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 15:20:26

rockdoc123 wrote: The diagram I posted is from an article (which clearly you didn’t bother to read either because you don’t actually understand any of it or you just don’t care to read anything that might disagree with you’re ridiculous assertions) is based on actual data collected from the regulators and it backs up what I have said all along about the flat base production that is the nature of unconventional wells that have reached the second stage exponential decline as being one of the reasons oil and gas companies went into the unconventional business in the first place…..zero exploration risk, early payout due to high initial IP and predictable cashflow in the later period when CAPEX is essentially zero and OPEX is quite low.

(Blue font mine, for emphasis).

I continue to find it highly amusing that the fast crash doomers completely misunderstand this basic concept -- which is oft repeated by various industry experts in books about fracking, etc.

Instead, they pretend like the fracking industry is all rapidly bankrupting itself, even as the majors are, as a group, reporting massive profits, even at recent oil prices. (And even continue to accelerate their "terrible" investments, because, apparently, they want to go bankrupt as far as possible.

If I didn't see it so often re these clowns, I'd believe such delusion would be impossible outside the walls of an insane asylum.

What's sad is their COMPLETE inability to learn. Or their unwillingness to acknowledge economic reality, so they can keep spewing FUD while doing the equivalent of proclaiming the earth is flat.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 15:34:03

From the Article:

Here’s the real problem: the fracking bonanza is ending. Most of the sweet spots have already been tapped; newer wells are depleting faster and producing less while costing more; the next waves of fracking, were they to happen, would squander $500 billion, then $1 trillion, then $2 trillion… The drilling rate is already slowing, and started slowing even while oil prices were still high. Meanwhile, peak conventional (non-fracked) oil happened back in 2005-6, only a few countries haven’t peaked yet, Russia has announced that it will start reducing production in just a couple years and Saudi Arabia doesn’t have any spare capacity left.

A rather large oil shortage is coming, and it will rather specifically affect the US, which burns 20% of the world’s oil (with just 5% of the world’s population). Once fracking crashes, the US will go from having to import 2.5 million barrels per day to importing at least 10—and that oil won’t exist.


https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/01/ ... pBAUz0&m=1
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 30 Jan 2019, 18:43:16

onlooker wrote:
From the Article:
..................
A rather large oil shortage is coming, and it will rather specifically affect the US, which burns 20% of the world’s oil (with just 5% of the world’s population). Once fracking crashes, the US will go from having to import 2.5 million barrels per day to importing at least 10—and that oil won’t exist.


https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/01/ ... pBAUz0&m=1

Yes but the US is producing ten percent of the worlds oil and wastes much of it in unnecessary driving. Even if US domestic production declined to 6mbd we could probably adapt ,conserve, and get by. The rest of the world fighting for shares of what is left out there will be in much worse shape.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 09:24:33

onlooker wrote:
From the Article:

Here’s the real problem: the fracking bonanza is ending. Most of the sweet spots have already been tapped; newer wells are depleting faster and producing less while costing more; the next waves of fracking, were they to happen, would squander $500 billion, then $1 trillion, then $2 trillion… The drilling rate is already slowing, and started slowing even while oil prices were still high. Meanwhile, peak conventional (non-fracked) oil happened back in 2005-6, only a few countries haven’t peaked yet, Russia has announced that it will start reducing production in just a couple years and Saudi Arabia doesn’t have any spare capacity left.

A rather large oil shortage is coming, and it will rather specifically affect the US, which burns 20% of the world’s oil (with just 5% of the world’s population). Once fracking crashes, the US will go from having to import 2.5 million barrels per day to importing at least 10—and that oil won’t exist.


https://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2019/01/ ... pBAUz0&m=1


And how long has been Orlov been calling for a peak oil doom...and it hasn't happened?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 09:31:32

AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:
And how long has been Orlov been calling for a peak oil doom...and it hasn't happened?


Which, of course, means it won't happen. Right? Happy motoring, Adamned.

Methinks some here will be eating a lot of crow at some point,,, or will be nowhere to be seen..
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 10:56:40

Methinks some here will be eating a lot of crow at some point,,, or will be nowhere to be seen..

It is said that the feathers are the worst part of the meal! The world is Peaking right now.

repost from Sock Market Crash thread

Here is a graph calculated from EIA data of drilling rates, and the number of rigs in service. To reverse the present trend, rig count would have to more than double. In the present HY bond market that is not likely to happen for Shale. The Majors will have to bail out Shale, or go without diluent. Some will obviously be saved, most will be allowed to die. It will be interesting to see how they will attempt to sugar coat this development? They will try to avoid the subsequent admission that the world has also Peaked for as long as possible. Once fully appreciated for the implications that it holds, the markets will go into turmoil. An economy that no longer has potential growth will be the most significant paradigm shift that has been witnessed in centuries.


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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 21:40:19

All that NG and no GTL that isn't as large as a city. And then it still doesn't work without blending.

BMW announced in 2018 that it wouldn't make any more diesel vehicles in NA. Just a few days ago, Caterpillar announces its broke.

Where is the diesel from Tar-Shale?

"Look at all the hydrocarbons"...yeah note the word hydrocarbons instead of diesel.

Bankrupt.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 31 Jan 2019, 22:52:59

GHung wrote:Which, of course, means it won't happen. Right?


Image

None of us are saying that. We're merely pushing back against people like short who keep saying it is gonna happen NOW.
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ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 08:23:47

StarvingLion wrote:Caterpillar announces its broke.

.

What nonsense! Why don't you try dealing with facts for a change.
Caterpillar said it now expects 2019 profit to increase to a range of $11.75 to $12.75 per share. Analysts had expected $12.73 per share. Its revenue only slightly exceeded expectations.

Here's how the company did compared with what Wall Street expected:

Adjusted earnings: $2.55 per share vs. $2.99 per share expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv
Revenue: $14.34 billion vs. $14.33 billion as expected by analysts surveyed by Refinitiv

The revenue results were 11 percent higher from a year earlier, when it reported revenue of $12.9 billion.

Caterpillar's results were hurt by a slowdown in sales in China,

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/28/caterpi ... -2018.html
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 16:25:57

GHung wrote:
AdamB wrote:
onlooker wrote:
And how long has been Orlov been calling for a peak oil doom...and it hasn't happened?


Which, of course, means it won't happen. Right? Happy motoring, Adamned.


Don't be silly, but more importantly, don't pretend I said something I did not. Quality of references matter. It is why anyone referencing Bedford needs laughed out of the forum, and why Orlov is suspect right out of the gate, within his "right like a broken clock" angle.

It is a given that at some point in time, all things will end, including this planet, everything on it, and probably sooner than that, everyone in this forum through old age. So, whenever Orlov is referenced, we mustn't forget his prior claims, and categorize his current claims in light of what side of the doom fantasy league he plays on. He plays for the broken clock gang. Gail is in there with him, Art Berman, Carolyn Baker, Ruppert would be there in all his misogynist glory if he hadn't demonstrated far more thoroughly the kind of psychological issues sometimes necessary to play on that team, without recognizing that one is doing it.

GHung wrote:Methinks some here will be eating a lot of crow at some point,,, or will be nowhere to be seen..


Sort of like all the peak oil doomers are doing right now. That is, the ones that aren't pretending doom happened, and all us silly folk just missed it. The real question I've gt is how do we find the folks who knew this was all a crock way back when, and got run off for daring to know more than those in the congregation, since proven to be far more informed on this topic than those doomers still willing to come out from under a rock and be identified for what they were, back then. Wrong. Hysterically so.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Feb 2019, 16:28:47

asg70 wrote:
GHung wrote:Which, of course, means it won't happen. Right?


Image

None of us are saying that. We're merely pushing back against people like short who keep saying it is gonna happen NOW.


Or welshed on the bet saying it would happen..like...LAST YEAR!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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