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Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 22 Jan 2019, 17:46:41

A 2.7 percent decline for a quarter when the full year saw an increase is not even close to a "collapse". It is hard to take you seriously when you exaggerate at every turn.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 02:16:26

"South Korea starting 2019 with a whimper: January first 20 days of exports contracted -14.6% YoY & imports fell -9.5% YoY.

Given how key Korea is for regional & global trade (supply chain), it is not good news for regional and global growth."
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 02:21:02

Car sales in China fell by 20 percent in December. China is cause of the global slowdown?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 11:48:10

shortonoil wrote:Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The age of Shale is over, and the remainder of the oil age is following close behind![/i]


Says the welsher....

So how many times have you recycled the end of the world, shale, oil production or price now?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:40:27

2020 is the start of The Ponzi Debt SuperNova

Remember that 21 Trillion that disappeared from 2005 to 2015?

Starting in 2020, the Banking Crims will need to extract to 73 Trillion from the (No) Future by 2021 and then a whopping 600 Trillion by the end of 2023.

2023 is the trigger date of The Oil Apocalypse due to the enormous sensitivity of the world economy to decline rate at NorthCentral Ghawar.

They are fast headed to Naked Money Printing and every electricity utility has stated that barring several miracles there is no way to keep the power on without load shedding.

The question is: Why do you fools waste your time babbling about nonsense such as EV's when its impossible to keep the lights on?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:43:23

The Physicists are Bankrupt. They can't even grasp the concept of Industrial Renewal, they just can't get past their stupid accelerator scams. They know nothing of EROEI.

http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2019/0 ... d-end.html
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 22:00:36

Yoshua wrote:Car sales in China fell by 20 percent in December. China is cause of the global slowdown?

Yet, if you look at car sales in China for 2018, car sales are down about 4%, and commercial vehicle sales are up about 5%. Maybe instead of broadcasting every short term negative stat like it signals the end of the world, it would make sense to see if there is a meaningful TREND in the making over a quarter or more.

But nah, doomers couldn't doom much if they did that.

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics ... china_2018
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 13:33:43

Says the welsher....


No, stupid. Says the EIA! But of course they don't put their data up expecting it to be reviewed by mathematical illiterates with an agenda, a child like mind, and an obsessions about things they know nothing of. Could you also stop peeing in the sink?

December 2018,
US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day*1
Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The age of Shale is over, and the remainder of the oil age is following close behind!


1) https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
2) http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 13:57:43

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The age of Shale is over, and the remainder of the oil age is following close behind!


OK we have around 20,000 wells producing above 100 bbls/day. If all of those wells dropped down to 50 bbls/d the base production for wells in the late stage decline (<100 bbl/d) would rise from 2.7 MMb/d to 3.7 MMb/d (give or take a few thousand bbls/d). Assuming total production from US unconventional wells is 8.5 MMb/d then that means that to stay flat then an additional 4.8 - 5.8 MMb/d would be required. A given rig can D&C a typical 10,000-foot completion in around 20 days (less if they leave the well standing and come back later to zipper frack all wells from the same pad). That means a rig should be able to drill 20 wells per year. Looking at average IP and decline rates I get around a 250 bbl/d average for most new wells drilled (especially if from the Permian where newer IP is in the 800 bbls/d range) which means each rig is responsible for 5,000 bopd. To get 4.8 – 5.8 MMb/d would hence require 960 – 1160 rigs drilling full time. Given US current rig count is 1,050 active rigs and historically it has been as high as 1600 active rigs I’m not sure I see the reason for panic here. :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 20:57:16

StarvingLion wrote:The Physicists are Bankrupt. They can't even grasp the concept of Industrial Renewal, they just can't get past their stupid accelerator scams. They know nothing of EROEI.

http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2019/0 ... d-end.html


I rest my case. Physicist Sabine Hossenfelder, the owner of the physics blog, wants to spend unlimited funds on Negative EROEI Machines called Fusion Reactors

Sabine Hossenfelder said...

"If you are asking outside the foundations of physics, I'd put more money into nuclear fusion research. We know that nuclear fusion works and the potential benefit is enormous, so I think it's a case where the costs are justified"

Sabine Hossenfelder said...

VYT,

" ? I am afraid I don't understand the question. Physicists have done nuclear fusion countless times in controlled environments. It's just that we normally put more energy in than we get out. It's a technological problem, but a solvable one."
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 21:36:05

The Doom Formula

Doom = Crashing Ghawar production + EOR Hell + 3rd Tier Shale Slop + Runaway Gov Deficits + Runaway Oil Security Costs + Insolvent Military + Massively Increasing Diesel Demand + Renewable Uselessness + Failing Infrastructure + ....Infinity.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 22:02:56

How is the military insolvent?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 22:59:24

shortonoil wrote:
Says the welsher....


No, stupid. Says the EIA!


The EIA released the results of the AEO2019 today. I watched through the entire presentation. You are wrong, they said nothing about doomer or peak oil hysteria, didn't mention net energy once, and not a word about engineers with zero experience in the oil field predicting low prices last year wiping out the world.

Let me guess....you really don't pay attention to the EIA, didn't know they released this product this morning, any more than you didn't know about how many petroleum engineers were employed by the USGS when you did that horrible spew to David Angelo demonstrating that you are as ignorant of their resource assessments as you are what USGS world assessments to use in your make believe funny report?

Did I cover about everything you have contributed to the sciences, analysis or peak oil community when you show the world how little you know compared to those to do this for a living? Oh, and being a welsher, while your technical incompetence can be excused, welshing....now that is just bad form, even for an incompetent.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 19:49:54

Yoshua: Car sales in China fell by 20 percent in December. China is cause of the global slowdown?


If China's car sales are representative of Chinese buying behavior then China is the major reason for it. How severely that will impact the US as the last buyer is hard to say. Many of China's smaller exporters are going to get slaughtered. South Korea, which is one of China's largest trading partners, has seen its exports plunge. When this is over someone is going to be looking for their six feet of topsoil!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 26 Jan 2019, 06:05:44

Car sales in Europe collapsed in the last quarter of 2018 as well and a gasoline glut has lead to negative returns for European refineries gasoline production.

Europe seems to be heading for Eurocrisis 2.0 with zero interest rates.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 27 Jan 2019, 18:51:39

shortonoil wrote:
Yoshua: Car sales in China fell by 20 percent in December. China is cause of the global slowdown?


If China's car sales are representative of Chinese buying behavior then China is the major reason for it. How severely that will impact the US as the last buyer is hard to say. Many of China's smaller exporters are going to get slaughtered. South Korea, which is one of China's largest trading partners, has seen its exports plunge. When this is over someone is going to be looking for their six feet of topsoil!

Except recessions don't mean doom, no matter how many times fast crashers say they do, pretend they do, or make stuff up.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 27 Jan 2019, 20:00:49

Except recessions don't mean doom, no matter how many times fast crashers say they do, pretend they do, or make stuff up.


Yes they do when you have $247 trillion in debt, which has stifled all growth, you just reached Peak, and the credit markets are cracking. HY hasn't one new issue in 10 weeks. Are you really stupid enough to stand under a cracking dam (rhetorical question).
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 27 Jan 2019, 20:11:12

Outback thinks that when we reach Peak that we should throw a big party; invite Jon Bias, drink cheap wine, and sing "From where did all the Flowers go". Not quite, Outty! It will be a little more complicated than that.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 27 Jan 2019, 20:52:56

Outback thinks that when we reach Peak that we should throw a big party; invite Jon Bias, drink cheap wine, and sing "From where did all the Flowers go". Not quite, Outty! It will be a little more complicated than that.


I'm sure you mean Joan Baez....illiterate moron. :roll:
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 28 Jan 2019, 19:21:26

Has U.S. shale oil entered a death spiral?


https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2 ... RHR0AG7wx4
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