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Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 11:55:24

Yoshua said:
There's no point in having an argument about the reason for the coming collapse...since there's no solution to the net energy cliff.


There was a "sort of a solution"; that is, the oil age could have been extended by at least a half century, but that window of opportunity has now probably closed for this civilization. To explain see the graph below:

Image

The obsession with measuring petroleum by its volumetric property, rather than its deliverable energy content blindsided the world to what was taking place. As the graph above demonstrates most of the energy used to extract energy from petroleum is utilized during its processing phase. Most of the energy expended is used for the production of finished fuels, and not for other economic activity. The IC did us in! Even though the technology to use crude directly (without the processing) for the production of energy has been available for a long time it has, however, not been widely implemented. Except for a few applications, like the Japanese who are burning crude directly to generate electricity, and Porsche’s hybrid turbine, electric racing cars which can use crude directly without wasting 70% of its energy to create finished fuels, the process has been mostly ignored. The use of petroleum as a finished fuel was so incredibly successful, and the capital accumulated from that process was so large that migration to a power system based on the direct consumption of crude had no short term advantage. The cost of modifying the existing infrastructure (from the next P&L corporate perspective) was viewed as prohibitive. As a civilization based on finished fuels from petroleum we fell victim to our own success.

About half of the world's liquid hydrocarbon reserve is still buried in the earth's crust. It is not suitable for making finished fuels; the energy equations just don't work for it. Most likely it will be used by some future generation for whom we can now only imagine. Where ever on earth that the energy resides so also does the life to use it. It may take a few centuries for humans to reconstruct the technology that they will need, technology that will be lost when this system fails, but when they do they will use it. The oil age is probably not really over; it has just been slightly delayed.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 12:28:28

As the graph above demonstrates most of the energy used to extract energy from petroleum is utilized during its processing phase.


BS. What the ETP model says (page 18) is that in 1901 the well to tank energy consumed was 762 units and in 2019 it is 82163 units. Geez, the ETP Bozo can't even post an updated data set. Only a bozo would maintain that it takes (82163/762) 108 times as much energy to boil a unit of oil (processing or refining phase) today relative to 1901.

BTW, I was one of the targets of the peter starr (old man in dotage) school boy prank. I railed at the time but only received a 7 day vacay.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 13:36:45

EIA weekly summary out. Another week; another week with no increase in US production. Shale has reached its limit against its legacy decline!
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

December 2018,
US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day*1
Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The Shale age is over, which is no big loss because it never made any money to begin with. Shale is an economic loss, not a benefit.


1) https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
2) http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

Shale has already begun its shutdown. Shale has Peaked, the US has Peaked, the World has Peaked. The ERoEI of Shale is not high enough to justify its continued production. Within a decade that will also be true of all hydrocarbon production. The oil age is ending.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01- ... e-slowdown
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 17:00:16

Shortonoil

Burning crude to produce electricity will only bring the EROEI even further down...when you look at the complexity of infrastructure, machines and batteries that are needed to run the economy.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 20:03:47

Burning crude to produce electricity will only bring the EROEI even further down...when you look at the complexity of infrastructure, machines and batteries that are needed to run the economy.


The Japanese use of raw crude statement about producing electricity is just to show that commercial scale conversion without the mid step of producing finished fuels is possible. Taking that step would increase world reserves by 1,500 Gb. The energy saved by eliminating that process would not be going up the smoke stack of a refinery.

It is doubtful that burning crude to produce electricity will ever again be economically attractive. Even the Saudis voted against it. Japan's case was a little unusual. Not may nations melt down a nuclear power plant every year? But, such conversions are possible because we are doing them.

If that conversion took place instantly, the ERoEI of the world's reserves would double instantly. If that conversion took place instantly, then half of " the complexity of infrastructure, machines and batteries that are needed to run the economy" would disappear instantly. That happens to be the primary argument against it! It is a step not likely to be taken by our civilization. At this point, laying the ground work for a future culture should be our primary objective. It will be a culture with far less than 7.4 billion inhabitants
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 22:42:48

Abdii wrote:Pstarr I stumbled across peak oil not long ago and i realised how few people out of billions of people on this planet are aware of it.


Or were aware of it once, and when it turned out to be hysterical musings of the ill informed, ran away as fast as they could. Closed down web sites, became reputable astrologers and whatnot.

Why should they be aware of it when the people who are can't get even the basics of it right?

Abdii wrote:Now the question is have we peaked? I think we have, all the signs are there with out financial system going haywire. Now the main question is how this will unfold, what is your prediction?


We peaked back in 2005. Didn't you notice? 2006? That was claimed as the peak. And also 2008 of course, and then again in 2015. Perhaps you missed all those ones as you are new to the topic? This entire eroei game had to be invented as a switcheroo to keep the eternally gullible at least interested enough to keep talking..otherwise they would all be at Guy McPhersons place hoping one of his predictions would finally come true.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 00:14:08

shortonoil wrote:As the graph above demonstrates most of the energy used to extract energy from petroleum is utilized during its processing phase.


You've been told multiple times that your numbers are wrong, wildly wrong. Simply painting yourself a graph (with a ton of useless whitespace and an x in the bottom left corner) is not good enough.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 04:20:01

If someone invents a machine that can use crude straight, then that would of course change everything.

MAN and Wartsila are producing crude engines, but they are stationary and the crude must be treated from impurities, otherwise the crude ruins the machines.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 06:49:42

"After we previously reported that UK car registrations just fell at their sharpest rate since the financial crisis, the sharp plunge of auto sales in China has also continued: retail sales of passenger vehicles - which include sedans, MPVs, mini-vans and SUVs - in China fell a whopping 19% in 2018 to 2.26 million units."

China is falling of a cliff...the net energy cliff...
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 07:07:45

Yoshua wrote:"After we previously reported that UK car registrations just fell at their sharpest rate since the financial crisis, the sharp plunge of auto sales in China has also continued: retail sales of passenger vehicles - which include sedans, MPVs, mini-vans and SUVs - in China fell a whopping 19% in 2018 to 2.26 million units."

China is falling of a cliff...the net energy cliff...
I don't know where you got your figures but as usual you have it wrong. Total auto sales in China are down just 1.65 percent to a eleven month total of 25,419,700 units.
Not good news for sure but not dropping off a cliff.
New vehicle sales by type (Factory shipments)
Nov. 2018 Jan.-Nov. 2018
Units
(10,000) Share(%) Y-oY(%) Units
(10,000) Share(%) Y-oY(%)
Sedan/Hatchback 107.63 42.24 -11.94 1,049.91 41.30 -1.40
MPV 15.00 5.89 -30.81 155.85 6.13 -16.09
SUV 90.89 35.67 -18.06 901.50 35.46 -0.83
Mini Van 3.83 1.50 -7.21 40.57 1.60 -18.07
Passenger Cars Total
217.35 85.31 -16.06 2,147.84 84.50 -2.77
Commercial Vehicles Total 37.43 14.69 1.68 394.13 15.50 5.00
Grand Total 254.78 100.00 -13.86 2,541.97 100.00 -1.65

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics ... china_2018
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 07:53:45

Doomers have a strange definitions of words like crash and cliffs.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 07:58:24

China is falling of a cliff...the net energy cliff...


China's current account is now negative!! The world's growth engine just threw a rod. Petroleum's net energy delivery is falling at 2.2% per year. Accounting for oil's leverage on the economy that amounts to a loss of several $trillion in world GDP each year. It looks like China is slated to take the brunt of that decline. Xi's totalitarian dictatorship will soon be the only thing holding China together. When it goes the Western economies will be taken down with it.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 08:08:12

Speaking of things that happen instantly, when are you going to pay that wager shorty?

Onlooker paid off his wager with me that involved the price of oil. Why can't you do the same? Are things that tough for you financially? Maybe you could take out a payday or title loan. Nobody likes a liar and welcher shorty or trusts them.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 09:55:58

Short is going to spam this forum daily with boilerplate end-is-nigh posts and zerohedge links. That's just how it is. Maybe we should all put him on ignore although he will just start using this forum as a blog and pollute it endlessly.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 10:55:36

Cog wrote:Speaking of things that happen instantly, when are you going to pay that wager shorty?

Onlooker paid off his wager with me that involved the price of oil. Why can't you do the same? Are things that tough for you financially? Maybe you could take out a payday or title loan. Nobody likes a liar and welcher shorty or trusts them.

It's not like he couldn't fund it with all his brilliant claims, re his ability to forecast oil prices. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:01:17

shortonoil wrote:
China is falling of a cliff...the net energy cliff...


China's current account is now negative!!

But of course. Let's pretend it's a catastrophe if China's GDP growth rate falls from roughly 7% to 6%. Especially when it's been well known for decades that such economies will slow growth meaningfully over time, as they move from third world toward first world economies. Same pattern for India, for example.

Of course, the fast crash doomers around here keep claiming China catastrophe with every negative blip, and as per their usual performance, keep getting it wrong.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 11:08:33

shortonoil wrote:As the graph above demonstrates most of the energy used to extract energy from petroleum is utilized during its processing phase. Most of the energy expended is used for the production of finished fuels, and not for other economic activity.

As though in the past decade, humans don't get more net usage per unit of energy from things like cars of size X, light bulbs, furnaces, and on and on, compared to what they got in past decades, and especially over 50 years ago. :roll:

Even if there is a small overall increase in net lifting costs, due to oil being deeper, harder to get on average, etc, SO WHAT, as long as science continues to meaningfully make energy using devices much more efficient over time? (The net amount of available fossil fuels keeps growing over time, as science makes them easier to find, easier to extract, etc, so the claim we're about to run out that fast crash doomers keep making lacks any credibility at all.)

But you can't admit that of course, since it shows your claims of ETP doom are complete nonsense, even IF your figures made sense, which they don't.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 12:05:22

The Chinese economy is most likely in contraction.

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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:10:43

Does China have problems? Then yes they do. Are they crashing? No they are not. Neither is the USA.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Observerbrb » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:56:04

Year on Year Germany Industrial Production - December 2018

Image

UK's service exports

Image

Italy's manufacturing PMI -2018

Image

France Industrial Production

Image

Worst retail sales in a decade in UK

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46807146

Trouble is brewing in Europe, and we can't even rule out Britain crashing out the EU in a no-deal Brexit!
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