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PeakOil is You

Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby marmico » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 10:37:03

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs.


BS. The legacy oil production decline is ~ 0.5 mb/d.

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/summary.pdf
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 10:57:45

You notice onlooker is not posting and hasn't since the new year started. He is paying off his wager to me. An example for others. In February he will be back as agreed upon.


If you said the sky was blue, it would be a good idea to go outside and check! I just hope that onlooker is all right? Reading your worthless crap every day would make an old buck mule sick.

Now that Shale has Peaked, thus the US, and therefore the world the next step will be the disintegration of the world's integrated petroleum production system. Since the remainder of the industry must have diluent to wash out heavy oil deposits, transfer its products through a pipe, and adjust viscosity for refiners it will have to directly take on the cost of producing the LTO that it requires. That will be about $35 billion a year. Most of which will fall on US producers, and that will leave little profit remaining for technological development, and implementation. Without continual advancements in extraction and processing the world's tired old fields will deteriorate rapidly. The breakdown that has already started with producers like Venezuela will soon spread across the world.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 11:09:09

The WTI crude oil price vs. U.S rig count

The oil price will continue to plunge and bring the stock markets down in unison again?
Low oil prices are now a problem for the U.S.
The dollar is breaking down from its trendline and U.S bank equities are breaking down.

The U.S seems to have some serious problems.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwWRAoPX4AE ... me=900x900
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 11:42:17

The breakdown that has already started with producers like Venezuela will soon spread across the world.


which has absolutely zero to do with any your ridiculous claims. Venezuelas oil industry has cratered due to Chavez/Maduro socialist policies which saw money extracted from oil sands deployed to socialist programs and no money invested into maintaining or further developing production. By kicking out all foreign companies there was no opportunity to have others bear the brunt of the necessary investment to keep production growing....hence where they are now.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 12:18:16

Now that Shale has Peaked, thus the US, and therefore the world the next step will be the disintegration of the world's integrated petroleum production system...


Maybe when I'm completely bored I will read through some of Short or PStarr's old posts going back, I dunno, the last year or two, and extract out all their boilerplate hellfire and brimstone predictions like this one just to outline how damn tedious, repetitive, and ultimately BORING this sort of posting style is.

Here's the formula:

Now that [insert unsupported or exaggerated claim], the [US/West/World] will be [insert apocalyptic analogy]. [Insert attempt at being edgy or witty].


This is why these people are ultimately automatons, NPCs.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 14:16:56

Turns out that short and his socks have single handedly done what all the cornies were never able to do to PO.com.
POB still gets lots of comments even though they still periodically declare peak.
The harm in the short-circuit theory is price falls on scarcity. If any of PO is remotely true, price will not fall but rise to the demand destruction level. To the extent that anyone does anything in the real world about what they read here if they don't expet prices to rise they will be in trouble.
Considering that only a handful read here anymore I guess it isn't all that big a deal
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 18:22:24

So we can agree then that eroei is important?

Oh good :)
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby BahamasEd » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 19:44:29

Pop's,
price will not fall but rise to the demand destruction level.


Yes, and the ETP model agrees with you, and it does look like the current destruction level is less then $80 as that's the last high. We should bottom out in the $20's again (hopefully) then back up to the next demand destruction level somewhere south of $80.

Because we're getting poorer, not me personally but the world all-together.
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 20:08:18

pstarr wrote:So we can agree then that eroei is important?
Oh good :)


EROEI is at least closer to supply-demand fundamentals than ETP which suggests the price of oil will fall all the way to 0. In the realm of plausibility, classic peak oil doom with price spikes is far stronger than ETP.

BahamasEd wrote:Because we're getting poorer


It's funny how people build their own reality distortion field based on their own self-serving interpretation of cause and effect. What comfort it must be to suggest that peak oil is the direct cause of all human suffering, however trivial. Stock market down? PEAK OIL! Your team lose the world series? PEAK OIL!! Got a hang-nail? PEAK OIL!!! So simple and easy to comprehend, yet so far from reflecting the complexity of the real world.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Abdii » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 20:28:02

Pstarr I stumbled across peak oil not long ago and i realised how few people out of billions of people on this planet are aware of it. All you have to do is look at the world population growth in the last 150 years and see the connection, makes me wonder is it because of oil im typing this post? Because of oil the population grew rapidly in the last 40 years. We also needed a very complicated system to mitigate oil this black gold into our industrial civilisation.

Now the question is have we peaked? I think we have, all the signs are there with out financial system going haywire. Now the main question is how this will unfold, what is your prediction?
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 22:11:57

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:So we can agree then that eroei is important?
Oh good :)


EROEI is at least closer to supply-demand fundamentals than ETP which suggests the price of oil will fall all the way to 0. In the realm of plausibility, classic peak oil doom with price spikes is far stronger than ETP.

Laughably idiotic.

Etp is one of several less-than-perfect tools to generate eroei data, aka net energy analysis. EROEI doesn't exist without imperfect models like Etp.

Given that we have no better tools than Etp, your snide and ignorant acknowledgment of EROEI is just so much horse pukey. What a phoney
Last edited by pstarr on Tue 08 Jan 2019, 22:45:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 22:33:24

Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4 ?????

Of course not. Oil floats on water. And lifts us to the heavens above lol
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 22:42:16

Abdii wrote:Pstarr I stumbled across peak oil not long ago and i realised how few people out of billions of people on this planet are aware of it. All you have to do is look at the world population growth in the last 150 years and see the connection, makes me wonder is it because of oil im typing this post? Because of oil the population grew rapidly in the last 40 years. We also needed a very complicated system to mitigate oil this black gold into our industrial civilisation.

Now the question is have we peaked? I think we have, all the signs are there with out financial system going haywire. Now the main question is how this will unfold, what is your prediction?

Abdii, thanks for the acknowledgement. Yes, I have been on this web site for 14 years, was once actually registered/certified "expert" by the moderators. They took away my "expert" badge when it became apparent I had no interest in prevarication or self-defined punditry. This place is rife with poseurs.

I tell it like it is. No one knows when peak will/has arrived. So many vague/confusing metrics are used to define oil production, oil reserves. Different organizations different definitions of oil are used around the world. Did you know that corn ethanol and lighter fluid is oil?

Know this: oil is the mother ingredient. It is used in everything we do. It delivers the electric cars. It mines manufactures and delivers the steel, lithium and all the tools that go into our industrial civilization. At the very first universal acknowledgement of peak oil our just-in-time commodities, financial and manufacturing system will collapse. Because all that debt can not be drawn down. That is all I know.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 23:08:20

pstarr wrote:we have no better tools than Etp


The best tool in the world is observing whether BAU continues apace, which it does.

pstarr wrote:They took away my "expert" badge when it became apparent I had no interest in prevarication or self-defined punditry.


Disingenuous projection. You've already said you're only here "for the yuks". In other words...trolling.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 23:12:33

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:we have no better tools than Etp


The best tool in the world is observing whether BAU continues apace, which it does.

pstarr wrote:They took away my "expert" badge when it became apparent I had no interest in prevarication or self-defined punditry.


Disingenuous projection. You've already said you're only here "for the yuks". In other words...trolling.

This thread is in desperate need of moderation.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 03:09:34

pstarr wrote:This thread is in desperate need of moderation.


No need, man. All you need to do is stop setting yourself up to be hoisted on your own petard.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 03:45:34

The junk bond market is collapsing. Depression and mass lay offs are coming as corporates are cut out from the credit markets.

Oil prices will surely go to the moon!

Image
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 06:05:10

The junk bond market has nothing to do with EROEI. Do try to stay on topic!
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 07:38:54

EROEI has everything to do with energy and the economy.

Most people won't understand what happened when the economy collapses. Most people on this site won't understand it.

There's no point in having an argument about the reason for the coming collapse...since there's no solution to the net energy cliff.
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Re: Is EROEI Important Pt. 4

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 09:01:32

pstarr wrote:Abdii, thanks for the acknowledgement. Yes, I have been on this web site for 14 years, was once actually registered/certified "expert" by the moderators. They took away my "expert" badge when it became apparent I had no interest in prevarication or self-defined punditry. This place is rife with poseurs.

I tell it like it is. No one knows when peak will/has arrived. So many vague/confusing metrics are used to define oil production, oil reserves. Different organizations different definitions of oil are used around the world. Did you know that corn ethanol and lighter fluid is oil?

Know this: oil is the mother ingredient. It is used in everything we do. It delivers the electric cars. It mines manufactures and delivers the steel, lithium and all the tools that go into our industrial civilization. At the very first universal acknowledgement of peak oil our just-in-time commodities, financial and manufacturing system will collapse. Because all that debt can not be drawn down. That is all I know.


As Pstarr well knows his 'expert' tag was taken away because he violated trust when a software glitch gave him access to the Moderator tool kit. Rather than report the glitch immediately as any honorable person would have done he decided to play with those tool first and only admitted the actions after the source of the mystery editing of user posts was tracked back to him. Pstarr came within a hairs breadth of permanent ban for his actions and should refrain from complaining about the extremely mild punishment he received instead. He also well knows it is a violation of the COC to complain about Moderation in a public thread, so guess what, you win a 30 day vacation.
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