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Iran Thread Pt. 5

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Iran can breathe easy. Bolton fired.

Unread postby dissident » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 22:14:17

Plantagenet wrote:
EnergyUnlimited wrote:Well, Bolton have been (rather unexpectedly) "trumped".
So war with Iran is now unlikely.
Or do you think otherwise?


War is as close as the Iranians blowing up or seizing more oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz. Or the Iranians could trigger off a war with Israel by firing more missiles into Israel, either directly or through their proxies in Hezbollah and Syria. Or the Saudis could go nuclear to counteract the Iranians going nuclear, and that could trigger off conflict.

Trump removing Bolton does nothing to diminish the terrorism and worse coming from the Islamic fanatics in Iran.

Cheers!


Demented nonsense. Iran is not blowing up and seizing oil tankers. It is the UK that is acting like a collection of pirates for hire. That Iran retaliates is fully legitimate. Bitchy UK hypocrites should learn how to act like civilized people.
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Re: Iran can breathe easy. Bolton fired.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 12 Sep 2019, 22:31:24

dissident wrote: Iran is not blowing up and seizing oil tankers.


Of course they are.

iran-oil-tanker-attacks-in-the-strait-of-hormuz

Get it now?

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Re: Iran can breathe easy. Bolton fired.

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 09:47:52

Plantagenet wrote:Get it now?


What I "get" is you running defense for the republicans as always. International relations are a result of a series of interactions, just like any relationship, and the Trump administration has been part and parcel of facilitating Iran's shift to a further hardline stance.

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Re: Iran can breathe easy. Bolton fired.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 12:56:48

asg70 wrote:What I "get" is you running defense for the republicans as always.


???????

I think you are confused again. Geography is hard, I know, but lets see if we can sort this out.

Criticizing the Iranians for seizing oil tankers and setting limpet mines to explode and damage others is not "running defense for the republicans."

The Iranians are ruled by Islamic fundamentalists and live in Iran.

The Republicans are your fellow American citizens and live here in the United States.

The Republicans and the Iranians are totally different groups of people who live in different countries thousands of miles apart.

Do you get it now?

CHEERS!
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Re: Iran can breathe easy. Bolton fired.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Sep 2019, 13:51:26

Cog wrote:Good firing. Bolton never saw a war he didn't want to jump into feet first. A war with Iran was never likely with or without Bolton around.

If Bolton is indeed a chicken hawk, as was reported in Newsweek today, then that's for sure. (I'm sure there will be disagreements about semantics like legal deferments, etc).

https://www.newsweek.com/draft-dodging- ... ar-1441548

...

One thing Ross Perot sure had right was that IF the US feels the need to get into a real war, it should be important enough that everyone's taxes go up meaningfully to pay for it. That alone should mostly prevent US politicians from pushing for unneeded wars.

And then if something serious like 9-11 or Pearl Harbor comes along and the need is serious, the people will see it is serious and back it, at least for a "reasonable" period of time. If not, successful politicians don't win or help their party by pissing off the entire electorate for no good reason.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 04:31:57

Is this a revenge attack (too early in the day for me to say one way or another)? And if it is how will Iran retaliate?

An explosion has caused a fire on an Iranian tanker near the coast of Saudi Arabia, Iranian media say.

The vessel, from Iran's national oil company (NOIC), was 60 miles (97km) from the Saudi port city of Jeddah when the incident took place, reports said.

The ship's two main storage tanks were said to be damaged, causing an oil spill into the Red Sea, but no-one was injured.

NOIC claimed the vessel was hit by missiles, but did not provide evidence.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50011218
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby Cog » Fri 11 Oct 2019, 07:30:36

How terrible for them. We may never know the true cause of this unfortunate maritime accident.
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 13:27:36

Am I the only one who thinks that a rapid move toward HEV's (which are totally viable with the modern technology today) as a policy and toward energy independence would be far smarter than endlessly fooling around in the Persian Gulf, Middle East, etc. to the tune of $trillians makes a TREMENDOUS amount of sense?

If the Europeans, etc. want us to police the oil in the gulf, then they can damn well PAY for it.

We could use the money far more wisely for things like education, infrastructure, balancing the budget, medical care, and on and on. Oh, and if need be to get the ball rolling, for a tax credit for HEV's.

Surely once people got used to the idea of HEV's and saw the tremendous gas mileage, especially in the city compared to ICE's, and the dealers were selling a lot of them, then there would be no reason not to continue to use them. Oh, and higher volumes could only help relative pricing compared to ICE's.

To me, it's only a matter of time until really bad things happen in the Persian Gulf region between various oil producers / political factions, and why should it be our job, forever, to referee that or get in the middle of that -- and the US bear all the expense?

It was one thing being "the world's policemen" when we could afford it. We clearly no longer do so. Time to wake up and smell the coffee.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 14:01:03

What's the effective blast radius of an oil tanker designed to be used as a weapon?
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby Cog » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 02:16:51

Rockdoc123 might want weigh in here but I don't believe crude oil by itself is particularly explosive. It burns just fine though. Now if the tanker was carrying distilled products like gasoline that is a different story.
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 09:43:44

That's what I mean. A tanker could contain anything. As far as I know, nobody checks them to make sure they are carrying crude oil, or that they are empty. So many tons of TNT is how kiloton and megaton output are measured. And, I think, if something like that went off underwater the impact of it would be fairly staggering. Iran is probably limited in some way, but the Straits of Hormuz are pretty narrow. I wonder what they can get close to? They must be able to park them in among a host of other vessels. I see pictures of that sort of thing, tankers outside of ports, all the time. Are there ever enough tankers in one place that if the majority of them were destroyed it would impact world oil supply due to lack of transport? Maybe it's not a worry? Their limitations place boundaries not only on them, but, in this conspiracy laden world, also upon anyone attempting to mimic them. It seems like some authority ought to be checking, so that the possibility is taken off the table.
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 12:38:24

evilgenius wrote: Are there ever enough tankers in one place that if the majority of them were destroyed it would impact world oil supply due to lack of transport? Maybe it's not a worry?

For what it's worth, Statista, which seems to have pretty reasonable information overall, places the number of large oil tankers globally just shy of 7400, as of 2018.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/264 ... e-by-type/

As of the beginning of 2017, the Maritime Executive, which seems to be a decent source of Maritime news, placed the global capacity at nearly 535,000 bulk tons, and nearly 39% of the global large shipping fleet.

https://www.maritime-executive.com/arti ... t-revealed

So it seems to me that the risk there would be causing a critical bottleneck somewhere like the Straits of Hormuz, becuase it's hard (for me) to imagine one or even a few such ships taking out, say, a couple thousand large tanker ships in even a coordinated single attack at multiple locations. (Presumably after one large attack, preventative measures would be taken, kind of like how the world got as excited as a hornet's nest for awhile AFTER 911).

Your point seems valid to me, but given all the global squabbling, especially in OPEC countries -- good luck getting cooperation for a reasonably priced, effective effort to check all container ships before they, say, near all large ports BEFORE something like this happens. (Based on history of human cooperation and checking on such things ahead of time.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 19:41:36

For combustion you need both fuel and Oxygen/air. Take something as volition as denatured alcohol, pour an ounce in a cup and light it. It does not explode, it burns and it burn where the valors meet the air and they get the right fuel/ air mix. Tankers are not especially explosive. LNG might be different if the tank were holed and a bunch leaked out, that might be interesting but still of relatively low yield.

I recently read a book which claimed that Germany was developing a very high yield explosive device. The theory was to disperse a bunch of kerosene aerosol from rockets and then send an igniter rocket through the mist. Supposedly the shock wave was quite tremendous. But the air had to be almost perfectly still for it to work.

I have heard several old mariners tell of being trained to use diesel to put out a fire. If you apply enough it lowers the hot parts below ignition temperature and also smothers the fire. However if you soak a toilet paper roll with diesel and light that it will burn quite nicely for a long time. Great way to start a bunch of wet wood.
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Re: 'Explosion' on Iranian oil tanker off Saudi coast

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 13 Oct 2019, 19:44:15

It’s hard to say the significance of these tanker attacks. So far they are pretty low level annoyance type affairs. Yet they must weigh on the faith investors put in the system. At some point they will effect the market. Just not sure when.
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Re: Iran Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 28 Dec 2020, 07:19:40

China And Iran Start Drilling In This Super Giant Gas Field | Peak Oil News and Message Boards
Production
Drilling operations of the first well of the game-changing but highly-controversial Phase 11 of Iran’s supergiant South Pars non-associated natural gas field officially began last week. Significant gas recovery from the enormous resource will commence in the second half of the next Iranian calendar year that begins on 21 March 2021. The long-stalled Phase 11 development supposedly saw the withdrawal of all Chinese involvement in October 2019. In reality, though, China is still intimately involved in its development and is looking to further scale up its activities following the inauguration of Joe Biden as U.S. President on 20 January. Along with completing the crucial Goreh-Jask pipeline oil export route by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (ending on 20 March 2021), building out its value-added petrochemicals production to at least 100 million metric tons per year by 2022, and ramping up production from its hugely oil-rich West Karoun cluster of oil fields to at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) within the next two years, optimising the natural gas production from its South Pars gas field is a top priority for Iran. With an estimated 14.2 trillion cubic metres (Tcm) of gas reserves in place plus 18 billion barrels of gas condensate, South Pars already accounts for around 40 per cent of Iran’s total estimated 33.8 tcm of gas reserves – mostly located in the southern Fars, Bushehr, and Hormozgan regions – and about 80 per cent of its gas production. The 3,700-square kilometre (sq.km) South Pars sector of the 9,700-square km basin shared with Qatar (in the form of the 6,000-square km North Dome) is also critical to Iran’s overall strategy to sustain natural gas production across the country of at least 1 billion cubic metres per day (Bcm/d), with Phase 11’s target production capacity being 57 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d), and to its corollary plans to become a world-leader in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market.
Given the size and scope of Phase 11, it became a focal point of U.S. attention in the aftermath of its unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018 and during the active re-imposition of sanctions toward the end of that year. “The pressure that the U.S. put on [French oil giant] Total [which at the time of its withdrawal in the middle of 2018 from Phase 11 held a 50.1 per cent stake in the US$4.8 billion project and had already invested around US$1 billion] was enormous,” a senior Iranian oil and gas industry source told OilPrice.com. “Its ruthless handling of Total was designed by the U.S. to show the E.U. [European Union] – which was trying to find a way to ignore the new U.S, sanctions – that, regardless of the E.U.’s efforts to avoid going along with the new U.S. restrictions on Iran, it had better do so, or else,” he added. “On the eve of the signing of the next wave of financing for SP11, the U.S. Treasury Department telephoned senior bankers at the bank that was organising the money and told them that if the financing went ahead then the U.S. would instigate a full historic investigation of all of the bank’s dealings since 1979 to every country that had been blacklisted by the U.S., and it told the French government the same thing,” he underlined. “The U.S. Treasury also said that all French companies would not win any major contracts with U.S. companies whilst Total stayed in Iran, but if Total withdrew then the U.S. would make a similar projects available to it to compensate,” he told OilPrice.com.
At that point, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) automatically took over Total’s stake (of 50.1 per cent) in Phase 11 to add to its existing 30 per cent stake (with the remaining 19.9 per cent held by Iran’s Petropars) and was all set to continue with the development of the site, given the enormously beneficial terms that it was offered by China. Specifically, OilPrice.com understands, Iran’s Petroleum Ministry offered the Chinese a 15 per cent discount for nine years on the value of all gas it recovers, with this being the value of the gas as applied to CNPC’s cost/return formula against the open market valuation, with the net present value of the entire South Pars site at that time being US$116 billion (now it is US$135 billion, as exclusively revealed recently by OilPrice.com). Following this, CNPC said that, as a specific adjunct to SP11, it was prepared to use its ‘special’ banking unit – the Bank of Kunlun – as a funding and clearing vehicle if and when it took over the full operations of Phase 11 in line with its new 80 per cent+ stake. The Bank of Kunlun had – and still has – considerable operational experience in this regard, as it was used to settle tens of billions of dollars worth of oil imports during the United Nations’ sanctions against Tehran between 2012 and 2015. Most of the bank’s settlements during that time were in euros and Chinese renminbi and in 2012 it was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for conducting business with Iran. As the U.S. ramped up pressure on China in the Trade War, however – especially looking to increase sanctions on its most important technology companies, including Huawei – and with China already locked into the new supercharged 25-year deal with Iran, Beijing made a policy decision to take a lower public profile on project work on Iran’s high-profile oil and gas fields wherever possible. Top of this list was Phase 11 of South Pars, so CNPC publically withdrew from the project in October 2019, having supposedly suspended further investment in it in December 2018. In reality, though, China’s activities on Phase 11 – and elsewhere in Iran and Iraq – did not cease but merely changed appearance into a less high-profile and therefore less U.S.-sanctionable form. “It was one thing for China to quietly ignore all sanctions that the U.S. had imposed on importing Iranian oil and gas, but it was quite another thing for it to blatantly put its major state companies on the ground in Iran at that point in the [President Donald] Trump administration when tensions were so high,” said the Iranian oil and gas industry source.”At that time these included the U.S.’s sanctioning of China over its [alleged] human rights violations against Muslim minorities in the Xinjiang region, and the extension of U.S. sanctions against Huawei over cyber-espionage and technology theft concerns,” he added.
Consequently, China switched to developing Iran’s oil and gas fields – including the South Azadegan, North Yaran, and South Yaran oil fields, and the South Pars gas site – by engaging in a series of ‘contract-only’ projects, such as drilling-only, field maintenance-only, parts replacement-only, storage-only, technology-only, and so on. “Most of these are being done through seemingly smaller firms that are less well-known than the big state players that attract little or no publicity but, as all companies in China are part of the state and are legally bound to work towards what they are told to do by the Communist Party, it doesn’t make any difference to the eventual outcome,” said the Iran source. Neatly closing the circle on continued China involvement – through technology and financing right now – in Phase 11 is that Petropars is also the partner for the various Chinese ‘contract-only’ projects going on in South Azadegan.
As it now stands, then, according to comments last week from Reza Dehghan, the National Iranian Oil Company’s deputy chief executive officer for engineering, 40 such ‘contract-only’ work projects have been defined for the implementation of Phase 11’s drilling operations, following the installation recently of the first jacket near the zero-point of the border with Qatar. “In total, the development plan of Phase 11 has 24 wells, two platforms and a gas flow pipeline to the coast, and the second platform will be installed in another location,” he said. To this end, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-associated MAPNA Group has re-deployed an major offshore rig (MD-1) from the Soroush oil field to Phase 11 tasked with drilling 12 appraisal and later development wells in two stages. Stage one will comprise the drilling and completion of five appraisal-development wells, the installation of the SPD11B platform, and the initial production of 14 mcm/d of gas. Stage two will see another seven wells drilled and completed, in parallel with the initial production, which will increase the total rich gas recovery from the platform to 28 mcm/d before a further round of drilling in the third phase will enable full production of 57 mcm/d. According to Dehghan: “The project was originally supposed to be financed by a foreign investor [but given] the existing conditions, the National Iranian Oil Company will tap internal instruments and resources like sale of participation bonds.” As exclusively highlighted by OilPrice.com, these will include new sukuk offerings and, more importantly, new bond structures to be sold via China.
By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

https://peakoil.com/production/china-an ... -gas-field
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Re: Iran Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 29 Dec 2020, 16:06:14

China while the USA has been doing this and that for the last 15 years has been happily spending all the money it makes selling us consumer goods to do construction and development projects like this one around the world. They practically rebuilt half the railroads in Africa to which they now own much of the railroads and supply most of 6the rolling stock giving access to transport resources out and consumer goods in from the coats to the middle of the continent both through Congo on the Atlantic Ocean and Tanzania/Kenya on the Indian Ocean. They have dumped more billions into building pipelines from China to the Russian pipeline network and to to formerly "stranded" fields in Siberia. For at least 20 years I have been hearing rumors of a pipeline connection between Iran and the Russian network so they could sell their gas directly to Europe via Russia. Now they have sunk billions into this project 11 in Iran to develop a large gas field and make it available for LNG shipping via the Indian Ocean to China and/or other world markets.

IMO for all too long the USA/G-20 have been playing money games with "investments" in paper assets while China has been building real infrastructure in the physical world to take advantage of the lack of participation by the "west". Pretty soon we will be getting a hard lesson taught to us on the difference between paper asset value and physical asset value.
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Re: Iran Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 29 Dec 2020, 17:46:51

Tanada wrote:IMO for all too long the USA/G-20 have been playing money games with "investments" in paper assets while China has been building real infrastructure in the physical world to take advantage of the lack of participation by the "west". Pretty soon we will be getting a hard lesson taught to us on the difference between paper asset value and physical asset value.


The real difference is that the US/G-20 use the WorldBank and other charitable international organizations also intend to build physical infrastructure in third world countries and the US and G/20 have given huge amounts of grant money directly to third world countries for projects the Africans say they will build...but often don't.

China, on the other hand, loans countries in Africa and elsewhere the money to hire CHINESE construction firms to build physical infrastructure.....which China staffs with Chinese workers and maintains control of until the loans are paid off. The Chinese are also very willing to pay bribes to African officials to get these deals approved.

So the Chinese "foreign aid" money actually all goes to Chinese companies, and the African countries wind up with huge debts. AND the loans will never be paid off, so basically China has now built and controls huge amounts of "new" infrastructure in Africa....including ports, bridges, hotels, resorts, freeways, etc. etc.

Its pretty amazing to go to little remote African countries where the villages consist of mud huts and and find giant freeways slicing across the land with giant ports and giant Chinese office parks and hotel complexes flying hundreds of Chinese flags and filled with thousands of Chinese people at the end of the freeway.

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Re: Iran Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 29 Dec 2020, 22:38:51

Plantagenet wrote:
Tanada wrote:IMO for all too long the USA/G-20 have been playing money games with "investments" in paper assets while China has been building real infrastructure in the physical world to take advantage of the lack of participation by the "west". Pretty soon we will be getting a hard lesson taught to us on the difference between paper asset value and physical asset value.


The real difference is that the US/G-20 use the WorldBank and other charitable international organizations also intend to build physical infrastructure in third world countries and the US and G/20 have given huge amounts of grant money directly to third world countries for projects the Africans say they will build...but often don't.

China, on the other hand, loans countries in Africa and elsewhere the money to hire CHINESE construction firms to build physical infrastructure.....which China staffs with Chinese workers and maintains control of until the loans are paid off. The Chinese are also very willing to pay bribes to African officials to get these deals approved.

So the Chinese "foreign aid" money actually all goes to Chinese companies, and the African countries wind up with huge debts. AND the loans will never be paid off, so basically China has now built and controls huge amounts of "new" infrastructure in Africa....including ports, bridges, hotels, resorts, freeways, etc. etc.

Its pretty amazing to go to little remote African countries where the villages consist of mud huts and and find giant freeways slicing across the land with giant ports and giant Chinese office parks and hotel complexes flying hundreds of Chinese flags and filled with thousands of Chinese people at the end of the freeway.

Cheers!


You forgot something, the World Bank charges enough interest to keep those leaders who fall for it debt slaves for the rest of eternity while claiming to be the good guys just trying to help out the disadvantaged.
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