[Teclo]

In theory at least
We can cut oil use 70% and feed the world ! ! !

After the USSR collapsed Cuba lost access to cheap subsidised oil and have had to survive on massively reduced consumption

While they do not enjoy a high standard of living, they do enjoy life. So using them as a template for the world... What if a western country was to conserve to this degree?


CUBA
Population: 11.3 million (UN, 2003)
Oil use: 160,000 per day

UK
Population: 59.2 million (UN, 2003)
Oil use: 3 million a day
Cuban style: 832,000 bpd (160,000 * 5.2)
Saving 72%

US
Population: 291 million (US Census Bureau estimate, 2003)
Oil use: 21 million bpd
Cuban style : 4.1 million bpd (160,000 * 25.
Saving 80%

OK. So Cuba is a smaller country so energy use for transport is bound to be less but how much less?
The UK is tiny but if we had 291 million people we would still use 15 million bpd, not much less than America

So The size of country does have an influence? Yes but we drive more efficient cars, since 50% of America's oil use is for cars this matters
If we all drove 20mpg cars we would burn through a fair bit more

More stats for you

If the entire world was to consume oil like America the world would need to produce 433 million bpd !

If oil was evenly shared out and we all lived like Cubans 20% of 433 = 86.6 million bpd

Its ironic that 86.6 is close to the projected world output at peak

The conclusion is that if we fairly shared out oil the whole world could have a half decent standard of living (although obviously not under a consumption based economy)

What it does mean is that if we can work out how to create 86.6 million bpd of oil energy equivilant we can support the whole world population without anyone being in poverty

It looks like we either centrally plan, are saved at the 11th hour by a technological breakthrough, or we start to kill each other

Martin


Source:
>Cuba produces the equivalent of only about 75,000 barrels of oil a day--half its current fuel consumption--and most of its >imports come on favorable terms from Venezuela, a close political ally.
>Venezuela supplies Cuba with nearly 80,000 barrels of oil a day at cut-rate prices

[killJOY]

I enjoy a little pie-in-the-sky now and then.

[Permanently_Baffled]

Just one correction. UK uses 1.66 mpd not 3.0mpd.

Call me picky

[Barbara]

You forgot to mention a very important point: I was in Cuba and saw they don't even need glasses on windows.
Being in a colder country is quite another story. I am in Italy and believe me... we are freeezing!!!!

[Wildwell]

Yep, you can save that sort of oil, cut down massively on consumer goods, quit flying and driving. All quite survivable, but what you can get away with in Cuba and what you can get away with in the US are two different things. That said, the end result is much the same whatever happens the stuff will run out one day.

[Teclo]

oh yeah. forgot about the cuban sunshine

I really don't care, we could consume so much less. And have more time to have fun. I could easily go to several parties a week instead of wasting the time at work

Martin

[Ludi]

I could easily go to several parties a week instead of wasting the time at work

Why are you wasting your time at work then? Why, if this life is desireable, don't you implement it now - or do you really require "central planning" before you take appropriate steps with your life?

[johnmarkos]

I forwarded the link about Cuba as an example of low-energy living to some relatives of mine who have been there recently. They told me that the residents of Cuba were literally starving: that they get two weeks worth of food rations that are supposed to last a month.

[Teclo]

Well, then they have been 'starving' for 15 years, and this is the first time I have heard this. Sounds like the Bush embargo to me, and not related to their lack of oil

>Why are you wasting your time at work then? Why, if this life is desireable, don't you implement it now - or do you really require "central planning" before you take appropriate steps with your life

Exactly, why wait?
Mainly because life is geared up to mass consumption and hence work. So the system sucks you in. Now the system is falling down... hence my post

Why should I bow down to the God of consumption?

Martin

[Ludi]

Right, why wait? Why care what the system is doing? It can do it without you....

[johnmarkos]

Well, then they have been 'starving' for 15 years, and this is the first time I have heard this. Sounds like the Bush embargo to me, and not related to their lack of oil

If they are going hungry because of the U.S. ("Kennedy/Johnson/Nixon/Ford/Carter/Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush") embargo, then it follows that they are not self-sufficient w/r/t food.

Apparently they're not dying of starvation in mass numbers. Nonetheless, the report of Cubans not having enough food makes me think twice about emulating that nation as a model for low-energy living.

[bart]

The information does not sound correct, johnmarkos. There are reporters and foreign visitors in Cuba. If hunger were widespread, we would have heard about it. Scarcity, yes. Limitations on meat, yes. But not hunger.

On the other hand, there was hunger about 10 years back, while agriculture was still on its back. This was admitted by the Cuban government.

What impresses me about Cuba is that they have gone through the Peak Oil experience and have managed so well. On several social indices, they rank very high, for example on literacy, infant mortality and access to medical care.

You may disagree with Cuba's political system, but you've got to admit how much they have accomplished. All while they've been the target of embargo, subversion and military threats from the most powerful country in the world 90 miles away. Remember too that Cuba was a poor Latin American country.

If other countries ever get serious about planning for Peak Oil, we will have to study Cuba in depth. No matter what its politics, when faced with Peak Oil any country will have to do as Cuba has done: decentralize agriculture, turn to organic methods, encourage local food production and promote bicyles and mass transit.

[EnviroEngr]

If other countries ever get serious about planning for Peak Oil, we will have to study Cuba in depth. No matter what its politics, when faced with Peak Oil any country will have to do as Cuba has done: decentralize agriculture, turn to organic methods, encourage local food production and promote bicyles and mass transit.

See < http://www.communitysolution.org/solution.html > for more information. In particular, Pat Murphy is the guy to talk to. They are planning a return trip to Cuba this year.

[johnmarkos]

The information does not sound correct, johnmarkos. There are reporters and foreign visitors in Cuba. If hunger were widespread, we would have heard about it. Scarcity, yes. Limitations on meat, yes. But not hunger.

It's difficult to get objective statistics because almost everyone has a political agenda w/r/t Cuba. However, the UN World Food Programme says, "Cuba is a low-income, food-deficit country."

http://www.wfp.org/country_brief/indexc ... ountry=192

Here's a report from The Miami Herald (I understand you may doubt the source's objectivity) on food shortages in Cuba.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/7963366.htm

I acknowledge that large numbers of people are not dying of hunger in Cuba. So they may have as much as they need to eat, even if they don't have as much as they want. That's a harsh distinction to have to make, IMO.

BTW, I'm one of those who believes the embargo should be lifted. US policy should not be made on the basis of a 45-year grudge held by voters in a swing state.

[NeoPeasant]

I acknowledge that large numbers of people are not dying of hunger in Cuba. So they may have as much as they need to eat, even if they don't have as much as they want. That's a harsh distinction to have to make, IMO.

I watched some science show about how they failed to achieve sustainability in the Biosphere and the occupants were living at a large calorie deficit over an extended period below what the experts thought they needed. They emerged from the experiment in unexpectedly good cardiovascular health by all measures. I read in one of those Cuba articles that the life expectancy of Cubans has been increasing in the "Special Period".

[JohnDenver]

What impresses me about Cuba is that they have gone through the Peak Oil experience and have managed so well. On several social indices, they rank very high, for example on literacy, infant mortality and access to medical care.

Their powerdown did not save the environment.

Desertification: Cuba’s main environmental problem
76% of potential agriculture land possesses some level of damage

DESERTIFICATION has now reached over six billion hectares worldwide, affects a billion people and is on the rise. Cuba is not exempt from this problem.

[...]

Alonso explained that similar to other countries, in Cuba the phenomenon’s origin is due to exploitation, deforestation (many forests are cut down in order to use the terrain for agriculture or cattle rearing) and an intense and irrational use of natural resources.

http://forests.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=20761

[jato]

Great! We can all become Communists! I'm sure that will go over well with the people of the United States!

[JohnDenver]

According to the CIA Factbook, Cuba is still growing -- at a rate of 2.6% (real, 2003). Industrial production growth was 2.4% (2003). So powerdown didn't stop growth either.

[Ludi]

So powerdown didn't stop growth either.

I don't think Cuba is a very good test case actually, because they still get resources from outside their own system.

We won't be able to do that after Peak Oil, because there's no "outside" to this system.

[BorneoRagnarok]

If they are going hungry because of the U.S. ("Kennedy/Johnson/Nixon/Ford/Carter/Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush") embargo, then it follows that they are not self-sufficient w/r/t food.

Apparently they're not dying of starvation in mass numbers. Nonetheless, the report of Cubans not having enough food makes me think twice about emulating that nation as a model for low-energy living.

I don't really agree with you. Of course, most of their diet is consists of vegetables and plants. The average body size is smaller than meat eaters of course.

Gogota one of the former posters here have a baby son. He is only 1 year old. According to UN health chart, he is grossly underweight. But he is healthy and kicking. Shame , shame to fat land whales.