[mousepad]

Forecasters say peak will be 2025 or so . I have my doubts .
.

That's the problem, right there. Neither is the moment of peaking known, nor the consequences of peaking.
The forecasts run all the way from 2005 or even earlier to 2100 for time, and the consequences all the way from benign to end-of-the-world-we-are-totally-fucked.

Probably best to stick with the old "tomorrow will be the same as today" forecast for personal planning.

[jedrider]

Forecasters say peak will be 2025 or so . I have my doubts .
.

That's the problem, right there. Neither is the moment of peaking known, nor the consequences of peaking.
The forecasts run all the way from 2005 or even earlier to 2100 for time, and the consequences all the way from benign to end-of-the-world-we-are-totally-fucked.

Probably best to stick with the old "tomorrow will be the same as today" forecast for personal planning.

Yet, today is nothing like yesterday already. The change is rolling in fast. I presume that gasoline consumption will actually go down with this Coronavirus and not go up again ever. That's just a prediciton, of course, but with some basis.

Pipelines will still need to be created, for as I said, we are harvesting the trace oil now.

[dirtyharry]

Forecasters say peak will be 2025 or so . I have my doubts .
.

That's the problem, right there. Neither is the moment of peaking known, nor the consequences of peaking.
The forecasts run all the way from 2005 or even earlier to 2100 for time, and the consequences all the way from benign to end-of-the-world-we-are-totally-fucked.

Probably best to stick with the old "tomorrow will be the same as today" forecast for personal planning.

Yet, today is nothing like yesterday already. The change is rolling in fast. I presume that gasoline consumption will actually go down with this Coronavirus and not go up again ever. That's just a prediciton, of course, but with some basis.

Pipelines will still need to be created, for as I said, we are harvesting the trace oil now.

[jedrider]

Pipelines will still need to be created, for as I said, we are harvesting the trace oil now.

I have a suspicion that some of you think that peak oil means no new pipelines.

Do Alaskan pipelines carry as much oil as they use to? I don't know, but I doubt it.

Do Mexican pipelines carry as much oil as they use to? I don't know that either, but I doubt it.

So, they are not empty but they don't have the same flow rate as they use to, possibly?

Like I said, I know little about the oil industry, but I can read headlines very well.

[ralfy]

That's the problem, right there. Neither is the moment of peaking known, nor the consequences of peaking.
The forecasts run all the way from 2005 or even earlier to 2100 for time, and the consequences all the way from benign to end-of-the-world-we-are-totally-fucked.

Probably best to stick with the old "tomorrow will be the same as today" forecast for personal planning.

Several of them already took place, such as oil production per capita peaking in 1979 and oil discoveries peaking much earlier.

Likely the effects of such have not been pronounced because consumption has been low throughout. For example, currently 70 pct of workers worldwide earn less than $10 a day, which means the poverty rate based on a living wage is that high. Decrease that poverty rate significantly, though, and likely demand not only for oil but for many other resources will increase to such an extent that production will be overwhelmed.

[ROCKMAN]

Well said as usual, ralfy. As has been pointed out many times before: the date of PO cannot be PREDICTED. It can be guessed at as has been done countless times. It fact, PO can't be certain even when we do reach that point in time. IMHO it might take a decade (or 2+ more likely) once we pass that point in time to be 100% certain. As we've seen several times over the last 130 years or so.

[jedrider]

Well said as usual, ralfy. As has been pointed out many times before: the date of PO cannot be PREDICTED. It can be guessed at as has been done countless times. It fact, PO can't be certain even when we do reach that point in time. IMHO it might take a decade (or 2+ more likely) once we pass that point in time to be 100% certain. As we've seen several times over the last 130 years or so.

So, you don't think we are experiencing peak oil now, right now (I mean, before lockdown)?

Peak Oil doesn't necessarily have to coincide with 'we cant' find more oil to pump' as it could be economic factors as well,don't you think?

This is conjecture, of course, but maybe a good one.

[asg70]

Well said as usual, ralfy. As has been pointed out many times before: the date of PO cannot be PREDICTED. It can be guessed at as has been done countless times. It fact, PO can't be certain even when we do reach that point in time. IMHO it might take a decade (or 2+ more likely) once we pass that point in time to be 100% certain. As we've seen several times over the last 130 years or so.

So, you don't think we are experiencing peak oil now, right now (I mean, before lockdown)?

Peak Oil doesn't necessarily have to coincide with 'we cant' find more oil to pump' as it could be economic factors as well,don't you think?

This is conjecture, of course, but maybe a good one.

Which is then Rockman's cue to invoke "peak oil...dynamic", aka "everything = peak oil!".

[REAL Green]

Which is then Rockman's cue to invoke "peak oil...dynamic", aka "everything = peak oil!".

POD is a force in the world of energy. Diminishing returns and limits are everywhere including oil. You just diss anything that threatens your miserable 6 figure life. If your life was so good why do you stalk a site whose title denotes decline and failure? You come here becuase subconsciously you are afraid and think stalking and playing the techno optimist hit man makes it all good. Honest science says differently. You are here fighting honest science for emotional reasons.

[jedrider]

Which is then Rockman's cue to invoke "peak oil...dynamic", aka "everything = peak oil!".

It's very simple: Peak Oil is the peak use of Petroleum products.

[AdamB]

Peak oil isn't about running out of oil but production reaching a peak due to various reasons, but generally gravity and physical limitations.

That isn't what you father figure seeking groupies at LATOC were taught by your unemployed lawyer leader though was it Ralfy?

Did you decide to begin freelancing silly explanations on your own now? Gravity? Seriously?

[ralfy]

Back in 2006, ABC Four Corners came up with a feature on peak oil, and one notable point was that various agencies believed that within ten years oil consumption would reach 115 Mbd and that the oil industry would easily meet that demand because there's no such thing as peak oil, only "above-ground" problems.

More than ten years after, consumption has reached only around 100 Mbd. Likely one cause was the 2008 crash, which led to weak economic growth throughout, with any demand destruction from JP, the US, and EU negated by increase in many emerging markets, even as prices swung up and down due to financial speculation which also led to the 2008 crash.

Meanwhile, oil industry debts rose, with the BIS now estimating it at around $2 trillion, and they are hoping that the prices would rise and remain high so that they can cover at least part of the debt and be able to borrow more as production costs rose.

Thus, the world economy was saved from peak oil because it crashed thanks to financial speculation, but it's that same financial speculation which is needed to increase oil production to meet increasing demand for most of the world, and it's the same speculation that leads to volatile oil price movement which affects the oil industry, consumers, or both. Meanwhile, oil production costs and debt rise, and the same world economy weakens as oil prices go up. And when problems like pandemics take place, oil prices go down but the world economy falls apart due to lower production and consumption of goods and services. Wars take place, and oil prices go up while the world economy falls apart again.

Caught between a rock and a hard place, and long before pipelines become empty.

[AdamB]

Back in 2006, ABC Four Corners came up with a feature on peak oil, and one notable point was that various agencies believed that within ten years oil consumption would reach 115 Mbd and that the oil industry would easily meet that demand because there's no such thing as peak oil, only "above-ground" problems.

So...you want to pretend that you and the other father figure seeking groupies of LATOC weren't claiming that it had already happened back then?

And your ignorance should be forgiven because someone else claimed numbers higher than you did? Not sure that excuses your basic ignorance on the topic back then ralfy.

More than ten years after, consumption has reached only around 100 Mbd.

Sure. When you and your friends said it was over at 85 million/day, 10-15 years ago.

Caught between a rock and a hard place, and long before pipelines become empty.

A nice revisionist argument Ralfy. DId you get it from Matt, or come up with it yourself?

[jedrider]

Peak conventional oil already happened. Peak all oil is probably here now.

Yup, we don't really know how desperate will be our search for more petroleum.

We'd dig up the Amazon for the stuff without a qualm.

I'm still betting we are at peak downhill side now.

Well, I bought some oil company stock, but that's good

as long as nobody else knows we're at peak oil.

[sparky]

.
the pipelines of oil and gas are always full because if you want something to come out at one end
the stuff must not stay inside
a pipeline is a volume it must be full to overflow at the other end
it's call technical oil or technical gas ,
when building a pipeline that's one of the big discussion in the contract
whose stuff is it , who pay for the stuff to fill it the pipeline company or the producer

once it is decided to close down the pipe a serie of pigs is run down with various fluids in succession such as solvents then hot water
as pushing medium for flushing ,
for gas it's a little bit simpler the pressure is allowed to drop
pigs and nitrogen are used

[asg70]

Peak conventional oil already happened. Peak all oil is probably here now.

Sure, peak oil DEMAND maybe.

We'd dig up the Amazon for the stuff without a qualm.
Well, I bought some oil company stock, but that's good

You seem to be pretty leftist here. You have no ethical problems with that?

[AdamB]

Peak conventional oil already happened. Peak all oil is probably here now.

Here is a list of global oil benchmark prices.

Any idea why I can't get a price on the type you are mentioning? Can you give me its API gravity? Color, sulfur content, type of impurities? Alternatively, just tell me where I can BUY some and I can get the stats for it.

This oil type became popular mostly AFTER it turned out that peak oil circa 2005 didn't work out.

I'm still betting we are at peak downhill side now.

Could be. I've got no beef with peak oil demand at all. All the bleating about the scarcity side seems to have mostly died down.

[REAL Green]

I'm still betting we are at peak downhill side now.

Could be. I've got no beef with peak oil demand at all. All the bleating about the scarcity side seems to have mostly died down.

When I look at the dynamics of peak oil I see scarcity created from the demand side as economic peak oil. The picture is economic scarcity makes certain oil types non-recoverable. So really this is the systematic condition of overall scarcity or back to limits to growth. If the picture is now the end of growth for human civilization then this is the new scarcity not the resource is depleted. The end of growth will come in the review mirror just like PO so too early to tell. So much oil today is economic so this really is a better view of peak oil in my opinion.

[jedrider]

I've got no beef with peak oil demand at all.

I do. It is sidestepping the issue, just like when 'BLM' is confronted with 'ALM', which is utter bullshit, so the same.

King Hubbert elucidated the nature of peak oil in the 1950's and fitted bell curves to the data.

He was exactly right for American peak oil (in 1972) until the current shale oil boom.

So, the shale oil boom was a technological triumph, probably ecological disaster, definitely a financial boondoggle,
which distorted these curves and put the lie to 'peak oil', or did it?

So, getting back to my point, is that 'Peak Demand' is utter bullshit because Oil is an extremely valuable commodity.
You wouldn't have rocket ships without petroleum products. It has no real substitute yet and, probably, never will, which is the key point.
The key point is that there ALWAYS will be demand, so there will be no such thing as peak demand unless the human population is decimated repeatedly.

That we can't leave our houses right now is a temporary phenomena. When we can no longer feed ourselves, maybe there will be peak demand for oil products.

Until then, Peak Oil = Peak Use and my guess is that we are already at that point, but that is a guess obviously as we haven't dug up every area available yet, but developing all these places remaining will encompass terrific environmental destruction which is IMO not worth it except to keep BAU going as long as possible.

[Plantagenet]

King Hubbert elucidated the nature of peak oil in the 1950's and fitted bell curves to the data.

He was exactly right for American peak oil (in 1972) until the current shale oil boom.

That means he was wrong on American peak oil, just as he was wrong on the timing of global peak oil.

So, the shale oil boom ... put the lie to 'peak oil', or did it?

Peak oil remains a valid concept, but M. King Hubbert's mathematical model that purported to predict the timing of peak oil has been falsified.

... my point, is that 'Peak Demand' is utter bullshit because Oil is an extremely valuable commodity.
You wouldn't have rocket ships without petroleum products. It has no real substitute yet and, probably, never will, which is the key point.
The key point is that there ALWAYS will be demand, so there will be no such thing as peak demand unless the human population is decimated repeatedly.

Yup....that would do it. Or governments could mandate people stop using oil and shift over to EVs and hydrogen power and such. That would also do it.

... we haven't dug up every area available yet, but developing all these places remaining will encompass terrific environmental destruction which is IMO not worth it except to keep BAU going as long as possible.

There is a natural tendency to try to keep BAU going and you can see the "land grabs" going on right now to get possession of the last areas with oil reserves. China has claimed and is militarily occupying a big slice of the westernmost Pacific Ocean...pushing their borders right up again the Philippines and gaining possession of a huge marine area with oil and NG potential. Russia is claiming the whole Arctic Ocean right up to the shores of Canada, thereby gaining possession of an entire ocean with tremendous oil potential.

IMHO the world is going to keep drilling for oil and using it until there is so much CO2 in the air the whole planet cooks.

HAVE A HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY!!!