[mortifiedpenguin]

What effects do you think this would have on the future?

I'm not sure if we could stop PO, but we would definitely slow it down. All those people working on solutions for PO, we'd be bound to come up with something.

[SilverHair]

Can you believe the number of posts on this site that wish for something other than the consequences of peak oil?

Here is another such post that somehow puts forth the hypothesis that if everyone believed in peak oil that it would go away or somehow be by miracle, solved.

Just another idiot who does not want it to be so.

[_sluimers_]

Everyone would come up with different conclusions.
That much is clear.

[Guest]

The people in influential positions (the government, media and company execs, who ALL know about PO today I might add), would continue their denial and mis-information campaigns.

The majority of other people would be happily lulled back into complaceny and the PO scenario would continue to run its course.

Peak-oil will only become widely accepted when its consequences are too evident to deny.

[deconstructionist]

this would be horrible. there would be mass hysteria, riots, looting, civil unrest to the max. society would crumble. the economy would collapse even faster than it's going to already. millitary rule in the US would probably take a few months to kick in. we'd continue to dominate the globe millitarily to exploit oil resources. only now dissent would result in death for americans too, not just Nigerian natives and such would be killed for trying to stop oil colinization... we would eventually win control of all the oil, probably a few hundred million will have die in wars by then... the oil will STILL not be plentiful enough to maintain our lifestyles, especially since we wasted so much of it making war over it...

most people are not ready to deal with peak oil. the world will continue to get out slowly, as it should.

[kpeavey]

Most of the people in the world would not understand it and would live their lives as they always have.

Many of the rest would not accept it, ingoring it to live their lives as they always have.

Ignorance and Apathy. The scourge of man.

Those who take heed would react to various degrees. Mass hoarding would be expected, with the Ignorant and apathetic joining the melee. The resulting mass hysteria, chaos and violence would be such that law enforcement would be unable to deal with the situation, if anyone reported for duty. Murder, rape, looting on a massive scale. Violence, destruction, arson, all unstoppable, all out of control.

This is the primary reason the government is keeping quiet...Control. Their job is to ensure the country's safety, order, and the welfare of the people.
A private agenda of remaining in control may be what motivates them, but in the end, it is in the interest of both the public and the government that the public remain in the dark.

[tmazanec1]

Everyone would come up with different conclusions.
That much is clear.

LOL!

[Tyler_JC]

Here's what New York City would look like in about 5 hours.



Needless to say, the masses can't handle something like this.
In the first week of the Great Awakening, 100,000+ people would die in cities across the USA.

[MonteQuest]

What effects do you think this would have on the future?

I'm not sure if we could stop PO, but we would definitely slow it down. All those people working on solutions for PO, we'd be bound to come up with something.

One word: Hyperinflation.

[Tyler_JC]

I know one that would happen. A massive stock market crash with airlines and consumer products companies leading the plunge. Things would get difficult, fast. Martial law would be the only option to stop the riots. But not enough soldiers would show up for duty. Most would be home, protecting their families from the chaos.

A Great Awakening would basically cause a complete meltdown of society. We learned about peak oil slowly. No one woke up one morning thinking that the world was going to end in the next 5 years. The only way we can accept this is because we researched the topic and followed its logic chain. If you don't allow people to figure it out for themselves, it causes them to panic. They don't understand the timetable of it and end up causing it to happen a LOT earlier than it would normally.

It's ironic. The "Peak Oil Movement" is the only organization that fears having everyone learn about it. We really don't want the world to discover the full implications of PO...tomorrow.

[GD]

we'd continue to dominate the globe millitarily to exploit oil resources.

Will the soldiers abroad continue once they realise what they're fighting for? Won't we see more conscientious objectors? Would it reach a critical (turning) point?

But not enough soldiers would show up for duty. Most would be home, protecting their families from the chaos.

Also, what about the gangs in the cities? I'm sure there'd be some 'hoods you wouldn't dare go near. What could we expect from them in securing territory and scrapping over food & fuel?

I'm glad I don't live in the USA with all those guns.

[BabyPeanut]

Here's what New York City would look like in about 5 hours.

I thought it already looked like that. Or maybe that's DC or Detroit.

[aahala]

This panic in the streets, a sudden total breakdown of society scenario is so unlikely it's silly. Oil is not something that will go from being in plenty one day and run out the next, or even run out in a couple of years for that matter.

We're looking at declining amounts, probably over an extended period and this may cause serious financial and standard of living losses. That's an entirely different thing than wide spread panic.

[pea-jay]

Companies that make long term decisions and investments are the clearest clue that most people dont get it. If they did, construction, investment and expansion activities would dry (unless it had a really fast payback period) up and that alone would tip the economy into recession.

People would stop paying several hundred thousand dollars for an overpriced piece of suburban crap and expect it to increase in valuations. If they did, poof, goes the housing market.

If everybody woke up and knew...you'd get an economic meltdown.

Now, lets rephrase this scenario. NASA scientists announced there is a 100% chance that in mid 2007 an asteroid would slam into earth. Most of one continent would see utter devastation and the others would feel the ill effects for years. What would you do? If you were on the affected continent? The unaffected ones?

Maybe its better the masses remain ignorant.

[AdamB]

What effects do you think this would have on the future?

I'm not sure if we could stop PO, but we would definitely slow it down. All those people working on solutions for PO, we'd be bound to come up with something.

Some of the thinking behind "old school" peak oil is still fascinating, and perhaps valid, to this very day.

So posts abound as to what peak oil might look like (including the parrots still claiming the same things that certainly DIDN'T happen post peak oil in 2018). Now we know better in many ways. We are 6 years most recent peak oil, we know the instant doom nonsense was a crock, but the argument has been made of an intersection between government borrowing, markets, gold prices, growing facism around the world, and all sorts of bad things, might be a consequence as more of a "slow burn" effect.

Unfortunately, there is an accompanying fact running right alongside the 2018 peak oil, and that is price. So here is the October of 2018 reference (peak month).

ICE Brent prices reached four-year highs above $85/bbl in early October. The Brent-WTI differential has widened to $9/bbl as US price increases were weaker. Product prices failed to match the gains made by crude.
IEA 2018 Market Report

And same report for September 2024

The rapid decline in global oil demand growth in recent months, led by China, has fuelled a sharp sell-off in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures have plunged from a high of more than $82/bbl in early August to a near three-year low at just below $70/bbl on 11 September, despite hefty supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil inventory draws.


I mean...6 of one, half dozen of another...6 years after peak oil. Global economy over past 6 years?

Well, 5 years after peak oil....most of the countries of the world have continued to grow nicely...without any more additional crude oil. Lets hear it for efficiency, EVs, renewables, and all those things that dispatched the neanderthal thinking of peak oil = doom.

[Tanada]

What effects do you think this would have on the future?

I'm not sure if we could stop PO, but we would definitely slow it down. All those people working on solutions for PO, we'd be bound to come up with something.

Some of the thinking behind "old school" peak oil is still fascinating, and perhaps valid, to this very day.

So posts abound as to what peak oil might look like (including the parrots still claiming the same things that certainly DIDN'T happen post peak oil in 2018). Now we know better in many ways. We are 6 years most recent peak oil, we know the instant doom nonsense was a crock, but the argument has been made of an intersection between government borrowing, markets, gold prices, growing facism around the world, and all sorts of bad things, might be a consequence as more of a "slow burn" effect.

Unfortunately, there is an accompanying fact running right alongside the 2018 peak oil, and that is price. So here is the October of 2018 reference (peak month).

ICE Brent prices reached four-year highs above $85/bbl in early October. The Brent-WTI differential has widened to $9/bbl as US price increases were weaker. Product prices failed to match the gains made by crude.
IEA 2018 Market Report

And same report for September 2024

The rapid decline in global oil demand growth in recent months, led by China, has fuelled a sharp sell-off in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures have plunged from a high of more than $82/bbl in early August to a near three-year low at just below $70/bbl on 11 September, despite hefty supply losses in Libya and continued crude oil inventory draws.


I mean...6 of one, half dozen of another...6 years after peak oil. Global economy over past 6 years?

Well, 5 years after peak oil....most of the countries of the world have continued to grow nicely...without any more additional crude oil. Lets hear it for efficiency, EVs, renewables, and all those things that dispatched the neanderthal thinking of peak oil = doom.

I wonder about your oil consumption figures, one of the sites I rely on says 2024 is averaging the highest oil consumption per day yet recorded.

LINK
Raw link; https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... il-demand/

[AdamB]

I wonder about your oil consumption figures, one of the sites I rely on says 2024 is averaging the highest oil consumption per day yet recorded.
LINK
Raw link; https://www.statista.com/statistics/271 ... il-demand/

Storage matters. The EIA has an excellent chart that I can't find right now that is fascinating to throw into the mix, as prices go this way, or that way. Storage is high, or low. This effect was most apparent, as well as the consequences of it rapidly increasing, during Covid. First time I ever paid attenion to it really, and when you build models of production, storage and demand, it operates as a great equalizer, a "squish" zone capable of expanding or contracting to balance out supply and demand, providing a price signal the markets use extensively. Take that, throw in OPEC claims...and place your bet on hedging, next seasons capital expenditure for drilling, etc etc. .

So consumption can be high...it will pull down storage, price reacts to presumed lower storage...increased price makes less profitable drilling projects more profitable. And it works in reverse as well.

In either case oil production is OH ...SO....SLOWLY....rising at current prices and things just seem to have factored in Putins war, phantom oil consumption, decreasing consumption via electrification, overall economic activity, and so on and so on.

I guess we'll see, but we're coming into a lower consumption time of year, so unless something geopolitical comes along, it is unlikely much is going to change nearterm.