[SumYunGai]

Hi Everybody.

I am new to all this. I have a friend who tells me its peak oil and the end of the world and he just won't shut up about it! I say no way. He says I should check it out for myself so I google peak oil discussion and up comes peakoil.com and I figure this is probably as good a place as any right? So hopefully there is some good info here so I can prove him wrong once and for all.

Whats a good thread to start with?

[Tanada]

A good place to start is with the basics, read this first.

http://peakoil.com/what-is-peak-oil

And welcome aboard!

[Cog]

Welcome back from your last banned user name.

[radon1]

Cog is known here for three things: he is very shrewd, extremely tactful, and loves Putin.

He didn't ask whether you were recently from prison, which means that you somehow managed to make a very good impression upon him.

[ROCKMAN]

Sum - Before you start digging here take a few minutes and reflect on what you've seen in the world for at least the last 10 years. Or even 30 if you're old enough. Think about the thousands killed and $trillions spent in military conflicts in various ME oil exporting countries. For instance do you buy the "exporting democracy" theme tossed out by various govts?

And then there's my worn out pitch: the actual date of global peak oil is of little relevance. Try looking at the entire oil dynamic. What some nut refers to as the "POD"...Peak Oil Dynamic. The POD encompasses high/low prices, high/low rig counts, increasing/decreasing oil production rates, etc.

Despite what you've seen in the mainstream news media the energy situation can't begin to be understood via bumper sticker phrases. Some of which, unfortunately, you run into on sites like this. There are no short and simple answers about the POD. Be patient and always ask quesdtions whenever in doubt.

[onlooker]

Sum, this site has an abundance of info on peak oil. Rockman is very knowledgeable and his reference to a peak oil dynamic is totally true. Remember that Oil and the broader Economy are inextricably linked given that Oil is so fundamental to most economic processes and activity. So what you can observe now in hindsight and going forward is much pulling and pushing or reaction, counter reaction. Thus you had an oil price that went very high in 2008 and since then descended quite dramatically. It can be called demand destruction as in the Economy cannot remain viable above a certain oil price. So, enjoy your time here.

[SumYunGai]

Thanks for the welcome everyone. This seems like a pretty cool place. I obviously have a lot to learn.

Rockman and onlooker,

Ok I get how peak oil is real even though I read that peak oil was totally dead in a bunch of places. But oil is really cheap because there is so much of it right? with so much cheap oil around, that doesn't sound like much to worry about in my opinion. I think I kind of get the "peak oil dynamic" POD stuff you said but how could cheap oil make the world end?

[onlooker]

Sum do not be fooled by the current "cheap" oil. First off, it not really cheap by historical standards. Second as I said this peak oil dynamic involves alot of counteracting effects, so the high price back in 2008 spurred more development and production of unconventional oil like tar sands. This has allowed production to be ramped up more for the time being. However, this will be short lived as this relatively low oil price is weakening this unconventional oil sector setting up for lower production rates which in turn will mean ultimately less net oil translating to higher prices in accord with the law of supply and demand. A term you should become intimately familiar with is EROEI. This is energy return on energy invested. This means that the plays or oil fields currently coming online or recently online require more energy to ultimately reach the final product and be sold. Unconventional Oil by definition has a less favorable EROEI than conventional oil. That is why conventional was first used because it is analogous to picking the low hanging fruit before settling for the more difficult to access higher hanging fruit. So the term glut is a bit disingenuous as it is relative to what buyers/consumers can and are willing to pay.

[sparky]

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Welcome on board , I hope you will find interesting thing here
every member has its personal bee in their bonnet , mine is food production

as for the end of the world as we know it , it's a contentious proposition both in form and intensity

[SeaGypsy]

Welcome back from your last banned user name.

I smell troll...

[radon1]

Welcome back from your last banned user name.

I smell troll...

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.p ... Yung%20Gai

cream of Sum Yung Gai

Semen from a young Asian (especially Chinese) man. Flavor somewhat enhanced by MSG.

Made popular by its use in the movie "Wayne's World" (or was it the sequel?).
Chang at a bar: Hey babe, do you like Chinese food? Yes? Well how would you like cream of Sum Yung Gai?

[SumYunGai]

Of course SumYunGai is not my real name obviously. Is radon1 your real name. Or SeaGypsy. Of course not. I am a gamer and that is the same name I use for that so I use it here too.

I am Chinese American and the joke from the Waynes World movie is a rip off from the original old joke in Cantonese to make fun of Americans. The real soup was actually named 三 杯 雞 which sounds like Sam Bui Gai in English and it actually means 3 CUP chicken. This was changed to 三 飲 雞 which means 3 DRINK chicken which sounds like Sam Yum Gai in English. So it is funny in 2 languages.

[SeaGypsy]

Just the trollish pattern. Show up posing as newbie, next post "oh, but I read in sooo many places peak oil is dead..." dime a dozen argument I've lost track in the hundreds have come & gone. The core issues of peak oil have not gone away, they form the basis of a heck of a lot of everything that happens.

[ROCKMAN]

Sum - Here's a statement that might confuse you. But chew on it for a while: In the Rockman's opinion the boom in the US oil production rate and the subsequent crash of oil prices from over $100/bbl to less the $30/bbl is one of the best indication of the PO problem. It might seem counterintuitive but you need to start grasping the cause and effect relationships of energy.

For instance a very old truism: the cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. Just as the cure for low oil prices is low oil prices...eventually. The time lag between cause and effect is difficult to see at first. But over years it will make itself evident if you follow the breadcrumbs.

BTW my 16 yo daughter was born in Jiujiang and adopted in 2000. And she's doing her part to use up our "cheap oil" as fast as possible: daddy just bought his country girl a used pickup truck. LOL.

[SumYunGai]

Hi Seagypsy,

But I dont think that peak oil is dead really. I just said I read that in a lot of places. But those articles are lying about peak oil obviously. Peak oil makes true sense because nothing lasts forever because the earth is not infinite right? And everything runs on oil so I get it for sure.

Hi Rockman,

So you are saying that supply and demand makes the "POD" happen. Of course that makes good sense to me. I guess the end of the world because of peak oil might be like a question of only timing. Well I sure hope not. But we have low oil prices now so thats not so bad and it seems like it might be a while at least right? And maybe the oil price goes up but then drops again and it all repeats over and over like a cycle. And what about electric cars like Tesla and solar power? They are getting better all the time. I cant understand why my friend says the world is ending right now. Oh please. It still makes no sense to me. So how long do YOU think before supply and demand can really cause high oil prices that really hurt the economy bad enough to make the world end? I mean if you believe that of course.

[SeaGypsy]

Yeah, but admit it Peter, we have had way more reincarnated hacks the last few years than genuine newbies. Onlooker is the only new regular poster in the last 2 years? How many incarnations have copious abundance, carlrunehole, americannzcommiedreamer, mossenui, oh there must be others... Ok my bad maybe the OP is genuine in which case I am a grumpy old man having a bad day, peace & love.

[ROCKMAN]

Sum - Here's a hint on how to deal with friends that say things like "...the world is ending right now. Oh please. It still makes no sense to me." It makes no sense because that phrase is meaningless. Or more correctly it means anything one wants it to mean. Ask them for very specific details.

One of the problems/benefits of the POD is that it includes every aspect of the energy situation from very impactful factors to minor side effects. Trying to focus on just a couple of factors will often make little sense. Which is why you see countless debates here focused on individual aspects of the POD.

There will be no "end of the world" or sudden "end of the oil age". Nor will oil production " fall off a cliff". As I said before such bumper sticker philosophies won'tvcome close to capture the complexity of the energy situation. Don't let them distract you from your quest.

[sparky]

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I used to be a gamer until I took an arrow in the knee !