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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 11 Nov 2019, 00:47:13

ralfy wrote:Links to definitions and the reports on the peak for conventional sources here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil# ... al_sources

and unconventional oil:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil


Obviously the wiki is wrong. I bet one of those discredited peak oilers wrote it...maybe even you ralfy? Still smarting from your indoctrination to the psycho religious, daddy figure seeking LATOCians?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 11:45:36

It looks like we may be hitting the peak of shale production:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-th ... 1572619913

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-u-s-shal ... l-in-2019/

It's only up about 3% which shows that we may be hitting the peak of production.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Nov 2019, 18:25:24

Revi wrote:It looks like we may be hitting the peak of shale production:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-th ... 1572619913

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-u-s-shal ... l-in-2019/

It's only up about 3% which shows that we may be hitting the peak of production


Again, you mean.

Steve St Angelo doesn't know anything about shale, the oil and gas industry or how to do basic math to figure out US net imports. And the EIA says US supply growth is slowing, so no surprise barrons would agree.

I would normally put this idea in the yawn department, but when Steve gets involved, it is also forth a little giggle.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 20 Nov 2019, 11:00:32

I like that vid you have at the bottom of your sig, Adam B. I agree with a lot of what Tony Seba says. It's not going to be without pain, especially for a fossil fueled country like the US. The change is already happening. A lot of young people are choosing to have a phone over having a car. Just call for a ride when you need one. The world is going to change, and it's okay, but that doesn't mean a lot of people won't freak out!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuVLlP1cuFg
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 13:13:56

We're at the end of 2019, and we'll know soon if we produced more or less than in 2018. What do you think it will be?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... production
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 13:23:41

Revi wrote:We're at the end of 2019, and we'll know soon if we produced more or less than in 2018. What do you think it will be?


With peak demand scheduled within 3 years, it is completely possible with all the output cuts being needed by OPEC and Russia and Co. that peak demand might have already arrived. A glorious day for humanity if so.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 14:38:43

AdamB wrote:
Revi wrote:We're at the end of 2019, and we'll know soon if we produced more or less than in 2018. What do you think it will be?


With peak demand scheduled within 3 years, it is completely possible with all the output cuts being needed by OPEC and Russia and Co. that peak demand might have already arrived. A glorious day for humanity if so.

It sure as hell will help, even IF we do in fact hit peak supply in coming years. In fact, to the extent it would help keep oil prices up, it encourages consumers to adopt a faster transition away from burning lots of gasoline.

Doomers gotta doom, but it's just looking less and less likely near term, re oil supply vs. demand.

And let's not forget that if we get the long awaited global recession, that meaningfully decreases global oil demand for awhile as well.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 14:56:37

Speaking of things helping mitigate oil demand, in coming years, HEV's look more and more promising.

I was discussing that with my brother in law on Christmas, as supplying various parts to the Georgetown KY plant is his primary job, so he keeps up with broad Toyota tech trends pretty well.

He pointed out (and I just checked re the Toyota.com site), and feature for feature, the differential for the 2020 HEV RAV4 LE, is only roughly $1000 more than the pure ICE RAV4 LE, since the HEV gets several upgrades (to the XLE level) vs the ICE.

Now we're getting to a differential where as long as someone wants things like alloy wheels, for a $1000 difference, it doesn't take many years for the HEV to more than pay for itself. And with the former California warranty on the traction battery, 10 years and 150,000 miles is a hell of a replacement warranty, even for folks who DO drive 12 to 15 thousand miles a year.

He said this is due to it being the latest version of the hybrid technology, and the cost differential should be similar as that is rolled out to other models in coming years. In fact, at some point, perhaps it makes sense just to make hybrid STANDARD (and quit producing pure ICE models), helping the EPA requirements and the cost base for Toyota overall. Which of course would pressure other car makers to follow, in order to compete.

There will still be a hell of a lot of vehicles sold for at least a decade or two before they're all pure BEV's, so the more hybrids in the mean time, the better.

Oh, and now, really no downsides re convenience. No plugging in or range anxiety. No more compromising on a small trunk, as the redesigned cars do away with that issue. No more bad performance -- if anything, the hybrid performance tends to be between the basic 4 cylinder ICE, and the performance level ICE with a 6 cylinder, a turbo, etc.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 27 Dec 2019, 19:55:17

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Oh, and now, really no downsides re convenience. No plugging in or range anxiety. No more compromising on a small trunk, as the redesigned cars do away with that issue. No more bad performance -- if anything, the hybrid performance tends to be between the basic 4 cylinder ICE, and the performance level ICE with a 6 cylinder, a turbo, etc.


Yeah, I'm pretty cheesed at being an early adopter. I've got a 2014, and I lost a BIG chunk of my trunk to get the battery in. The car is perfect for the way it is used, which is in an either/or configuration, but after 30 minutes kicking around the performance of my buddies new Mitsubishi Outlander with AWD and 30-40 miles of EV range and decent size and the mileage he is getting beating me for a vehicle weighing half a ton more and crappier aerodynamics, I'm beginning to feel restless for an upgrade.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 13:14:26

I'm beginning to feel restless for an upgrade.


the new Audi e-tron looks fairly promising if you are interested in a smallish AWD. On the expensive side but still cheaper than a POS Tesla.
Getting some pretty rave reviews up here in the frozen north with regards to battery life (apparently less cold weather drain than some expected) and range. The Jaguar I-pace is another that beats the heck out of Tesla IMO and it too is one of the few that seems to fair very well in the cold and snow. It is slightly cheaper than the Audi.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 13:34:57

rockdoc123 wrote:
I'm beginning to feel restless for an upgrade.


the new Audi e-tron looks fairly promising if you are interested in a smallish AWD. On the expensive side but still cheaper than a POS Tesla.


Unfortunately for me, the wife wants the Tesla. So whatever I go for, it must be something I can sell as better/cooler/faster whatever to her. I just can't go get another PHEV that fits my practical nature.

rockdoc123 wrote:Getting some pretty rave reviews up here in the frozen north with regards to battery life (apparently less cold weather drain than some expected) and range. The Jaguar I-pace is another that beats the heck out of Tesla IMO and it too is one of the few that seems to fair very well in the cold and snow. It is slightly cheaper than the Audi.


I noticed a Jaguar in the Walmart parking lot the other day, and it has the sex appeal that beats a Tesla hands down. I am unfamiliar with its specs, or even what it has to do to catch the wifes eye more than the Tesla. She can't explain much why she wants a Tesla, other than it is like an iphone on wheels.She is an Apple fan as well.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 16:04:52

I had a looksee at the Jaguar i-Pace last week when I was at the Land Rover/Jaguar dealership to get some maintenance done.

197 HP, 258 ft.lb of torque, 395 hp, 0-62 mph in 4.8 seconds, top speed 124 mph. They state a range of 235 miles between full charges but of course that will vary.

Lots of tech goodies in this machine...2 touch screens, access to online media, connect to your smartphone (Apple Play is standard I believe) and there is an iphone app that monitors charge, location, locks and unlocks vehicle etc. Easily as much tech as a Tesla and the interior of the Jag is much, much nicer.

If I were to go full electric it would probably be the Jag or perhaps the Audi (haven't been able to see one yet but my wifes twelve-year-old Audi needs servicing so that might be an opportunity). For my overall use I'm more likely to consider an HEV and probably will think about the Range Rover when it comes out and gets some reviews.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 16:58:06

Adamb, rocdoc, why do you guys bother with electric car? We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 17:10:07

Adamb, rocdoc, why do you guys bother with electric car? We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.


Mainly because I see that at some point down the road oil and gas will not be plentiful and at that point in time, the world needs to be already a long way toward offsetting its use. I have always believed that the various renewables along with nuclear can be used to offset the consumption of gasoline and diesel which leaves oil and gas for other uses where there aren't potential replacements that make sense. In order to get there, it requires that people begin adapting. I doubt governments are going to step up and push for the number of batteries and recharging stations that will be necessary until such time as they see the widespread adaptation. For me, an EV won't work well, given the distances I might travel over areas where no charging network exists but an HEV is the first step in the right direction.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 17:14:17

Check out Tony Seba. He says we'll be all electric by 2030 for a number of reasons. I agree, it could bring the demand for oil down sharply as well. He has some interesting angles on that as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 18:58:29

rockdoc123 wrote:If I were to go full electric it would probably be the Jag or perhaps the Audi (haven't been able to see one yet but my wifes twelve-year-old Audi needs servicing so that might be an opportunity).


I mentioned the Jag to the wife after my post this morning, she looked it up, instantly denigrated it over price compared to the Model 3. She doesn't want the Model 3 of course, we wants the Y, but for her it is any excuse to get what she wants rather than look at alternatives. So I've got some selling to do.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 19:01:42

Yonnipun wrote:Adamb, rocdoc, why do you guys bother with electric car?


You should see what happened to my monthly fuel bill after I bought one.

Yonnipun wrote:We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.


It isn't about oil. Have you ever driven one of the full blown electrics? It's all about the torque baby! Roasting Corvettes out of stop lights, enough silent acceleration to think you've been strapped into a rocket sled.

As far as inconvenience, unlike my ICE powered machines, when they sit around not being used, my PHEV sits around plugged in. Not a inconvenience to be found.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 28 Dec 2019, 19:49:07

Yonnipun wrote:why do you guys bother with electric car? We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.


Well, some of us would like to lower our carbon footprints. It's kind of sad how few here actually give a damn on that front, even those who accept AGW.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 08:15:47

AdamB wrote:
Revi wrote:We're at the end of 2019, and we'll know soon if we produced more or less than in 2018. What do you think it will be?


With peak demand scheduled within 3 years, it is completely possible with all the output cuts being needed by OPEC and Russia and Co. that peak demand might have already arrived. A glorious day for humanity if so.

World economy is heavily debt based, growth is needed to pay the interest on that debt. Peak oil consumption means peak transportation essentially, at least for heavy long distance trucking, meaning peaking of the economic activity, or no more growth.

Will the economy contract peacefully or violently? With massive debt defaults in store, it seems it wouldn't be quite a smooth downscaling.

rockdoc123 wrote:
Adamb, rocdoc, why do you guys bother with electric car? We have oil for at least century or more as you have said. I would never buy an electric car because of the battery charging time inconvinience.


Mainly because I see that at some point down the road oil and gas will not be plentiful and at that point in time, the world needs to be already a long way toward offsetting its use. I have always believed that the various renewables along with nuclear can be used to offset the consumption of gasoline and diesel which leaves oil and gas for other uses where there aren't potential replacements that make sense.

Massive increases in electricity production would be needed to replace most gasoline. Diesel it has been said electric vehicle batteries need more than an order magnitude upgrade to be viable for long range trucking.

As for renewables they need days to weeks of battery capacity depending on location. Scaling nuclear will take decades if legislation is not changed to expedite it.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 06 Jan 2020, 14:20:55

Darian S wrote:Massive increases in electricity production would be needed to replace most gasoline. ...it has been said electric vehicle batteries need more than an order magnitude upgrade to be viable for long range trucking.
As for renewables they need days to weeks of battery capacity depending on location. Scaling nuclear will take decades if legislation is not changed to expedite it.


Gee, thanks for that. You're the first one to ever serve us these doomer NPC FUD talking points. Do we have to go round the mulberry bush again on this with you?

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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