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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 28 Oct 2019, 13:21:23

Revi wrote:Here's a link to the peak oil barrel. Looks like we are down about 1.25 million barrels per day due to the attacks in Saudi Arabia...

http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-september ... duction-2/

I find it difficult to get reliable, recent data on global oil production in an easy to understand and summarized format. I suppose revisions and compilation of all the data (which is delayed) makes that difficult.

To me, you have to look at, say, global production of oil and equivalent liquids on a year by year basis (once the revisions are in) to get a real sense beyond mostly "noise" for recent months.

When that trend is down for a few years and prices are rising meaningfully, THEN it will be time to get concerned.

If the trend is down and prices are also low to moderate, then either demand is down due to economics or alternate transpo growth, and there's no need to get very concerned, IMO.

Nothing wrong with monitoring every blip and various components of production, but it doesn't seem very telling over time, any more than watching stock market "trends" short term, or watching one stock or sector and then trying to make claims re "the stock market".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 11:35:53

Maybe, but it's interesting that the result of the attacks showed up on the charts from September. It may all be fixed now, but the total amount of oil is definitely down!
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 13:00:06

World C+C peaked in November 2018

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... ld-C-C.png

The world is one year post peak oil and there are already violent protests all around the world.

People blame their governments. The left blames right wing policies and the right blames left wing policies...while it's a hydrocarbon economy.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 14:22:03

Yoshua wrote:World C+C peaked in November 2018

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... ld-C-C.png

The world is one year post peak oil and there are already violent protests all around the world.

People blame their governments. The left blames right wing policies and the right blames left wing policies...while it's a hydrocarbon economy.

Go ahead. Show us the credible news reports on how there are oil shortages, and thus violent protests from them "all around the world".

I'm not seeing it in the news.

The market isn't showing it -- prices are quite moderate.

A handful of articles saying we COULD have a crisis or we MIGHT have a shortage aren't showing it.

Have you ever considered that MAYBE a handful of protests in volatile areas aren't all about peak oil or massive oil shortages? And of course, that here and there isn't "all around the world"?

The more your ilk posts, the less useful it is, due to endless empty claims like that.

...

Oh, and for the bazillionth time, a short term blip does not a long term trend make. Get back to us in 3 to 5 years if Nov. 18th was really the peak C&C production rate AND prices are consistently over, say, $100 for WTI. Then, we might actually have a meaningful trend to look at. :idea:

Of course, your ETP pal shorty says $2 for WTI is the max after 2021, so you have that little inconsistency, for example. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 04:37:41

Well my friend...peak oil is turning out to be a complicated event...with falling EROEI...falling oil prices...falling production...falling economic activity...falling linlving standards...falling inflation...falling yields and rates...

But that is what the real world is looking like.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 30 Oct 2019, 22:32:15

Yoshua wrote:Well my friend...peak oil is turning out to be a complicated event...with falling EROEI...falling oil prices...falling production...falling economic activity...falling linlving standards...falling inflation...falling yields and rates...

But that is what the real world is looking like.


Peak oil isn't complicated. The mythical consequences assigned to it by the likes of the Happy McPeaksters have been going on since...well...the modern peak oil movement began, and are quite hysterically complicated.

Peak oil isn't related to inflation. Net energy. High or low prices. FALLING PROUCTION, YES!! Economic activity? Nope. Living standards? Nope. Yields and rates? Nope.

Mythical consequences indeed.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 03:55:01

AdamB wrote:
Yoshua wrote:Well my friend...peak oil is turning out to be a complicated event...with falling EROEI...falling oil prices...falling production...falling economic activity...falling linlving standards...falling inflation...falling yields and rates...

But that is what the real world is looking like.


Peak oil isn't complicated. The mythical consequences assigned to it by the likes of the Happy McPeaksters have been going on since...well...the modern peak oil movement began, and are quite hysterically complicated.

Peak oil isn't related to inflation. Net energy. High or low prices. FALLING PROUCTION, YES!! Economic activity? Nope. Living standards? Nope. Yields and rates? Nope.

Mythical consequences indeed.

He constantly makes things up out of whole cloth, spewing random theories and economic ideas all over the place. And of course, claiming ANY negative blip is a consequence of peak oil, with no meaningful evidence at all.

So pretty much par for the course for the fast crash doomers, re economic sense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 13:41:56

Okay, How about this?

http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-september ... duction-2/

Looks like we were down a bit in the OPEC department in September. Once October and November come in we'll see if we may be down worldwide, or if we squeak out an increase.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 15:19:06

So the Peak Oil theory of falling production and rising prices didn't play out. Now what?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 16:36:23

I’ve always imagined as peak hits, the economy crashes and demand destruction sets in.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 07:31:00

Armageddon wrote:I’ve always imagined as peak hits, the economy crashes and demand destruction sets in.


Looks pretty much like what's happening now.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 21:55:50



Looks like those production cuts are real, don't they?

Imagine that! Not to be confused with any particular peak oil (remember all those other silly claims that it had come and gone, by some of the very TOD leftovers now infesting the peakoilbarrel?) of course.

revi wrote:Looks like we were down a bit in the OPEC department in September. Once October and November come in we'll see if we may be down worldwide, or if we squeak out an increase.


Or maybe we should check and see if demand is down as well, and this is finally peak oil demand?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 21:57:50

Yoshua wrote:So the Peak Oil theory of falling production and rising prices didn't play out. Now what?
a

Find something else to be hysterical over? I hear climate change and rapidly rising sea levels have the potential to irritate North Carolina outer banks real estate owners sometime in the next century or so!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 22:03:09

Revi wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I’ve always imagined as peak hits, the economy crashes and demand destruction sets in.


Looks pretty much like what's happening now.


Except for the economy not crashing anyway. And demand destruction as in peak demand appears to be right around the corner, according to the likes of WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, etc etc.

Maybe another website needs to be founded, specifically announcing the next peak oil, and why it will be a pussy cat for consumers but a horror for producers? Folks can make up hysterical consequences, and instead of applying them to consumers as they once did, make up a bunch of nonsense and assign it to producers?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 01:24:59

AdamB wrote: peak demand appears to be right around the corner, according to the likes of WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, etc etc.


Unless we have a prolonged global depression soon, or skyrocketing oil prices, oil demand is nowhere close to peaking on a
global (versus US) basis.

Robert Rapier. August 31, 2017. Oil demand is growing nearly everywhere. Forbes.

I broke down oil demand growth in the past five years (2011-2016) in various regions of the world. I chose the past five years, because those years have marked rapid growth in sales of electric vehicles (EVs). If the near-term peak oil demand hypothesis is true, you might expect to see a slowing of oil demand growth in regions with fast growth in EVs. (For more details on the peak oil demand hypothesis, see Peak Oil And Peak Demand Have Entirely Different Outcomes).

World-wide, oil demand has grown by 6,800,000 barrels per day (69% of that in the Asia Pacific). Consumption increased 16.1% in the Asia Pacific, 16% in Africa, 12.5% in the Middle East, 7.6% in the world, 4.7% in South and Central America, and 4% in the U.S. Oil consumption only dropped in the European Union, by 4.1%.

Norway’s oil consumption grew 1%, despite being the leader in growth and total market share for electric vehicles (EVs).

My conclusion Is that outside of the EU, there are no clear cut examples of declining oil demand in the past five years. To the contrary, oil demand continues to increase in most regions of the world, including those with high growth rates for electric vehicles.
http://energyskeptic.com/2018/robert-ra ... -in-sight/

The following graph shows conventional oil continues to provide about three quarters of world oil supply, and that its production has been flat at best since 2005, and may be starting to decline. When it begins to decline in earnest, presumably at a rate of 6 to 8 per cent per annum (IEA, 2008), it is hard to imagine that unconventional oil will make up the difference for very long.
https://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/up ... 5_2014.jpg

Here is a similar graph out to 2018:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAPyY3kUwAIDRD6.png

Global crude plus condensate production has fallen sharply recently, but that might be due to a softening global economy. Time will tell:
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/upl ... ld-C-C.png

Since 2005, about half the world's production has been from sources that are either plateaued or declining:
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/upl ... groups.jpg

But let us be optimistic and suggest that unconventional sources can, although at substantially greater cost, offset the looming decline in conventional production. That unconventional offset will be gross production. Because unconventional has a low EROEI, the net production is likely still to represent a shortfall.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby marmico » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 06:23:36

Folks can make up hysterical consequences, and instead of applying them to consumers as they once did, make up a bunch of nonsense and assign it to producers?


Yep. Household gasoline spending relative to after tax incomes is near historical lows.

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby GHung » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 08:51:26

marmico wrote:
Folks can make up hysterical consequences, and instead of applying them to consumers as they once did, make up a bunch of nonsense and assign it to producers?


Yep. Household gasoline spending relative to after tax incomes is near historical lows.

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 11:43:20

GHung wrote:
marmico wrote:


Thanks for that inflation adjusted gasoline price graph, fascinating and I mean that in all sincerity. It appears that the direction of the price trend may be as important as the absolute price.

The real price trended down and we got the roaring twenties.

The real price moved up and what appeared to be a normal recession turned into the great depression.

The long decline in real prices from 1938 to 1971 coincided with the greatest rise in living standards in history.

Then rising real prices in the 1970's coincided with a dismal economy that often seemed to alternate between recession and stagflation. The period from 1971 through 1981 saw four recessions, and the recession of 74-75 (after OPEC doubled oil prices) was then the worst since the Great Depression, and the recession of 81-82 (after OPEC doubled prices again) was even deeper than 74-75.

But then the real price declined from 1981 to 1998, coinciding with the greatest bull market in history in both stocks and bonds, along with the Reagan and Clinton economic booms, only interrupted by one mild recession when Iraq invaded Kuwait causing a sudden spike in oil prices.

Then the real price of gasoline trended up again from 1998 until the major spike in 2008. During this period, the mildest recession on record, driven by cutbacks in corporate capex spending, was followed by a recovery so anemic that it required the Fed to hold rates low enough to spin a housing bubble (home buying and building provides a tremendous spur to increased employment and consumer spending), but even with pro-bubble monetary policy, relaxed financial regulation that further enhanced the housing bubble, major tax cuts, and large deficit spending, the expansion was still relatively anemic, and the 2008 spike in real gasoline prices was followed, like the major price spikes in the early seventies and early eighties, by yet another "worst recession since the great depression."

As a result of that Great Recession accompanied by the Great Financial Crisis, the world economy is now weighed down by the greatest debt bubble in history, and servicing the debt should leave less money to spend on goods and services, yet the falling real price of gasoline is one factor keeping the longest (although weakest) unbroken expansion in history on life support and thereby giving President Trump a realistic shot at winning re-election. When the real price of gasoline starts trending up again, and almost non-existent spending on exploration or new drilling guarantees it will at some point, severe economic hardship is likely to ensue as well.

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 15:53:14

Daniel Doom wrote:
AdamB wrote: peak demand appears to be right around the corner, according to the likes of WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, etc etc.


Unless we have a prolonged global depression soon, or skyrocketing oil prices, oil demand is nowhere close to peaking on a
global (versus US) basis.


You can perhaps explain where RyStad, CSIS, WoodMac and Barclays have erred?

There have been no skyrocketing oil prices for more than a decade, demand growth has been decelerating (one of the points that the previously mentioned thinktank/experts are discussing consistently) and doesn't look to be increasing any time soon. Hence their conclusion. They use data and whatnot, so feel free to use some of your own to refute them.

Daniel Doom wrote:Robert Rapier. August 31, 2017. Oil demand is growing nearly everywhere. Forbes.


Two years old, and from a former Happy McPeakster. I was talking about data and real analysts and whatnot, and you come up with discredited peak oilers doing same-old same-old?

You are new here (maybe), you really should try harder, early on, than just recycle old claims from those whom reality has already made to look the fool. That was on the SUPPLY side, you basically just demonstrated that they have already missed the current demand growth deceleration.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Daniel Doom » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 17:10:44

AdamB wrote:
Daniel Doom wrote:
AdamB wrote: peak demand appears to be right around the corner, according to the likes of WoodMac, Rystad, Barclays, etc etc.


You can perhaps explain where RyStad, CSIS, WoodMac and Barclays have erred?

DD: I just googled peak demand and quickly found this WoodMac site:
https://www.woodmac.com/news/feature/th ... lack-gold/

WHICH SAYS: "Demand for oil in developed countries will revert to structural decline by 2020, wiping out about four million barrels per day by 2035. In contrast, developing economies will increase their demand for oil by nearly 16 million barrels per day by 2035."

DD: So perhaps you have misunderstood your sources, since WoodMac clearly says here that we should expect net global demand to increase by 12 million bpd over the next 15 years. Thus, I do not think WoodMac has erred.

"There have been no skyrocketing oil prices for more than a decade,"

DD: thanks to the combination of weak economic growth and the financing at artificially low interest rates of tight oil production that sells below the cost of production on average. Basically, a subsidized supply cushion has kept the lid on oil prices. I am glad, but I also recognize that this cannot continue forever. It is certainly not evidence of collapsing demand.

"demand growth has been decelerating"

DD: "demand is growing slower" still means demand is GROWING--in spite of a weak global economy and slowing population growth.


Daniel Doom wrote:Robert Rapier. August 31, 2017. Oil demand is growing nearly everywhere. Forbes.


"Two years old,"

DD: Which is not very old, since little has changed in the last two years.

"and from a former Happy McPeakster. I was talking about data and real analysts"

DD: Rapier has the background and experience to qualify as a "real analyst." He also cites data. Your complaint seems to be that his track record of consistency somehow disqualifies him. Maybe you would take him more seriously if he flip-flopped with every zig and zag in the commodity price charts.

"and whatnot, and you come up with discredited peak oilers doing same-old same-old?"

DD: discredited by whom? You seem to be saying that you can dismiss his arguments because they are wrong, and they are wrong because you have dismissed them!

"you basically just demonstrated that they have already missed the current demand growth deceleration."

DD: 1. Production has not just decelerated recently but has actually fallen. If I used your depth of perception, I would be claiming that this is proof that oil has now peaked, but it could just be a slowing economy explaining both the weaker demand growth and the falling production, so I will wait and watch; and--

2. Even if global demand were to instantly, seemingly magically, go completely flat, we would still be headed for a peak oil crisis; it is just a matter of how fast we get there; and--

3. No one has been discredited by events simply because he did not look into a crystal ball and foresee the quantity of tight oil which would be rapidly produced and sold at well below the total cost of production. After all, not even the most pollyannish of optimists predicted that scenario back in the nervous years when oil was running up to $147 a barrel. However, it is universally acknowledged among oil analysts that tight oil will peak relatively soon and then go into slow but irreversible decline. Meanwhile, the old elephant fields that the world still relies on disproportionately continue to draw down at a rapid clip. Other tight oil resources in other parts of the world may also let us kick the can down the road a little farther (although they will probably not be so generous as to sell their oil at a net loss as American startups did!), but the handwriting is on the wall. A peak delayed is not a peak avoided. And--

4. A little over the peak oil horizon, other energy sources look to peak in the not too distant future: U235, coal (as measured in joules or BTU's, not just gross tonnage), and natural gas. The farther down the road we can kick the peak oil barrel, the closer together these assorted peaks will cluster. And--

5. We did not transition from the stone age to the bronze age because we ran out of stones, but if we had in fact run out of stones before we discovered how to make bronze, we would have been really, really screwed.
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