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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 02 Oct 2019, 10:09:00

I wonder if that IEA chart that Pops posted takes into account the drop in supply that was caused by the Saudi attacks?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Wed 02 Oct 2019, 10:52:20

It is from 9/12 report so current to maybe July?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 07 Oct 2019, 12:26:52

Revi wrote:I wonder if that IEA chart that Pops posted takes into account the drop in supply that was caused by the Saudi attacks?

Since that was a brief blip, I don't see how that is meaningful to be big picture over time.

Only if ongoing serious attacks continue, would that meaningfully hit the big picture.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Tue 08 Oct 2019, 11:29:57

The sign of peak won't be the supply number, the contiguous US was in decline for 40 years. The sign will be economic, price to be exact. And even then it will be a long rearview look at a price high enough to cause conservation. The 4 years of $100+ price at the end of the outies was a preview.
Offshore brazil is just now going on sale. Venezuela's production is the lowest in 50 years even though it has the largest resource. etc, etc.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Wed 09 Oct 2019, 20:02:14

Will the Fracking Revolution Peak Before Ever Making Money?
James West, a managing director at Investment bank Evercore ISI, assessed the situation for the Wall Street Journal. “We’re getting closer to peak production and we are reaching the peak of the general physics of these wells,” he said.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 03:43:37

Bumpy plateau, with lots of tiny peaks and troughs along the way???? July seems to have given US production a little trough.

"Recent decrease in U.S. crude oil production was geographically isolated, likely temporary", so read the headlines of an EIA report dated 9th October 2019.

However, they also added:
Monthly U.S. crude oil production fell by 276,000 barrels per day (b/d) in July 2019, based on the latest data in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Petroleum Supply Monthly. This hurricane-related decrease was the largest decline in monthly crude oil production in more than a decade. The decline was temporary and geographically isolated to the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will continue to increase through the remainder of 2019.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41613
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 10 Oct 2019, 10:19:04

I posted a story about EXXONs big fracking plans in the permian and in the fine print was something about the shrinking size of "sweet spots" to infill.
Anyone have more info?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 00:54:44

As we were told many times, the Peak will only be visible in the rear view mirror. This report is too close in time to call Peak, rather than the ups and downs of a bumpy plateau.'' But any more down turns make the end of last year more likely for the candidate for THE Peak. (that is providing the chart below is not based on false data).

Image

If the Peak was around November last year, we have done well to keep going a year without major collapse (signs of stress are there, but the economic system is still holding together).
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby marmico » Sat 12 Oct 2019, 06:22:16

One of the peak oilers go to guys for modelling fame was Jean Laherrère. He of the Campbell/Laherrère essay in Scientific American in 1998 forecasting a 2005 global peak and being the precursor of the modern peak oil movement.

https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readi ... l_1998.pdf

Well he has had quite the conversion recently. Maybe it is just dementia. But he now models peak oil (crude oil only, no condensate) in 2035 (green dashed line).

Image

The new model says that oil extraction in 2050 will be the same as in 2019. So there is plenty of time to find transportation fuel substitutes.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 01:54:33

EdwinSm wrote:If the Peak was around November last year, we have done well to keep going a year without major collapse (signs of stress are there, but the economic system is still holding together).

If you were being sarcastic, sorry I missed it. Assuming you're serious:

In the real world, prices react to "stress" due to lack of supply, the system doesn't magically "collapse" in the short term, especially when there's LOTS of oil in storage to handle any production shortfalls in the short term.

It amazes me how on this site the doomers never seem to be able to learn this simple concept. They can claim doom tomorrow, next week, etc. re the economy, peak oil, etc. and it doesn't make it any more real, BTW.

First, clearly the markets aren't worried about the prospects of a significant oil shortage over time, or the oil futures markets would be reflecting that.

Second, as the mid-2010 to mid-2014 period showed, even a MUCH higher oil price (i.e. approaching $100) doesn't cause anything approaching "collapse" in less than a year, much less 4 years. In fact, it doesn't even cause US or global recession.

In mid 2008 we saw that a $140ish WTI price for months caused inconvenience and worry. Not collapse.

Third, oil storage exists, and the amount the oil production was decreasing re the chart was on the order of one or two percent. So even if prices were rising rapidly, there wouldn't be a physical problem re oil unavailability in the short term.

A "shortage" that doesn't even scare up a meaningful price rise is pretty much the OPPOSITE of something that's going to cause "collapse" of the economic system.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 15:00:30

Thanks for the Laherrere post

The 3600 Gb ultimate results from plotting the HL of '09-'18 production.

Image

Which is fine if that increase continues.
The world outside of US & Iraq is flat so the question is will the increase from Iraq be repeated elsewhere and will the US frack a boom be extended and repeated elsewhere as well.
If if so we might get to 5000Gb but if not we're back to the previous target of 3 or less.
Here are curves for 3 - 4 - 5 000Gb ultimate along with his first curve from way back

Image

Here's the report
https://aspofrance.files.wordpress.com/ ... 2oct19.pdf
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 16:09:08

I was thinking about this. Linearization is effective for a particular resource type, unconstrained. Most past extraction has been from pressurized (Jed Clampett) reservoirs. The TRRC capped production, then OPEC tried to do the same, other influences but mostly it's been pretty wide open.

Pretty safe to say future extraction will be from a higher percentage of tar, offshore, tight shale — more difficult, capital intensive sources. Tight responds amazingly fast now once the resource is located but has a rapid decline and supposedly a long tail. Tar OTOH (much of which is in Venezuela) is exceptionally slow to ramp up, takes lots of capital and is all tail. Offshore (arctic I guess too) is kind of a blend, long lead then fast decline.

Point is we may have more resource than was guessed 20 years ago (3000Gb ultimate instead 2000Gb) but it might take twice as long to extract. The first 1000Gb took 100+ years, no guarantee the next 1 is going to take 100, maybe it takes 200? 300?

In which case, you know...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX3bN5YeiQs
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Oct 2019, 18:52:33

And of course it was right there and I skipped over it.

Image

"conventional" crude peaked in '08 and XHeavy, LTO, Deepwater and Offshore are making up the difference. I was hoping to find a linearization and curve of just the "conventional" but don't see that.

Here is another report linked to on Laherrere's page, I've not looked at it closely but the snapshot is peak soon and fairly fast decline after 2030

Image

That would jibe with fast decline of the remaining large reservoirs and inability of non-conventionals to keep up. Not the shark but not great either
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby tita » Wed 16 Oct 2019, 04:03:03

Pops wrote:Thanks for the Laherrere post

The 3600 Gb ultimate results from plotting the HL of '09-'18 production.

Image


Isn't this 3'600 Gb URR a result of the LTO growth? And doesn't it fundamentally flaw the HL analysis? LTO did not increase URR by several hundreds of Gb, it's more in the range of 50-60 Gb.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 12:42:23

If the bump is all just unconventional oil we are in trouble. The rest of the world hasn't figured out how to get people to pay to produce it yet. It's going to be a shock when it isn't 98% of the growth in oil production the way it has been lately. Image
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 14:01:28

Pops wrote:Here is another report[/url] linked to on Laherrere's page, I've not looked at it closely but the snapshot is peak soon and fairly fast decline after 2030

Image

That would jibe with fast decline of the remaining large reservoirs and inability of non-conventionals to keep up. Not the shark but not great either.

Actually, big picture, this seems just about ideal to me.

We need to get off massive amounts of FF burning for transport within the next few decades, or preferably sooner. If the oil price starts moving up meaningfully from a post 2030 peak, THAT should FORCE people to really get moving over to EV's. Without even requiring idiot politicians to have the guts to implement a meaningful FF transpo tax.

With, say, another 10-15 years for EV's and their tech and infrastructure to build out before that bites seriously with pricing, that should make a more rapid transformation much easier than it would be starting today.

If that's what happens, big picture, including doing something meaningful about AGW, it's about the best we could ask for overall re transport and AGW, given the unplanned way society grows and consumes resources.

Much sooner than that, and it takes quite a while to hit critical mass, especially re BEV's. Much later than that, and it's likely 5 degrees C of warming baked in, or even worse, and even "Star Trek" level AGW active mitigation effort seems mighty iffy re needed speed and affordability.

...

And of course, thus far, technology keeps bailing us out re supply, but at some point we won't be lucky on that front re extraction/production, so we're damn fortunate that alternative transpo tech. looks likely to be able to do the job without overly burdensome pain.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 11:21:44

Revi wrote:If the bump is all just unconventional oil we are in trouble. The rest of the world hasn't figured out how to get people to pay to produce it yet. It's going to be a shock when it isn't 98% of the growth in oil production the way it has been lately. Image


These numbers are all garbage because they just say oil is whatever we say it is.

Barrel Counting is total bullshit.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 20:27:06

Revi wrote: Will next year's oil supply be able to top 2019? Have we hit the peak? What do you think?


You mean, have we hit the NEXT peak, right Revi? You might want to forget the last couple rounds related to this hysteria (it was a bit embarrassing for the faith based believers, admittedly), but more than a few knew better.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 20:32:49

Revi wrote:it's strange how it hasn't affected even the price of oil this week. Maybe we aren't anywhere near peak...


A little bit of CYA can go a long way towards not getting laughed at (again!) later!

Plus, peak demand is far more the topic of the day, peak oil via other means. Take heart that peak oilers will be right no matter how it happens! Plus the biosphere will like us for doing it willingly!
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 28 Oct 2019, 12:34:41

Here's a link to the peak oil barrel. Looks like we are down about 1.25 million barrels per day due to the attacks in Saudi Arabia...

http://peakoilbarrel.com/opec-september ... duction-2/
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