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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 21:37:36

The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 17 Nov 2021, 22:35:28

Revi wrote:The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?



We’ve hit peak everything, literally.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 00:20:43

Revi wrote:The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?


This is peak oil world Revi. You are no more a spring chicken than I am, did you miss the last real energy crisis of the 1970's? The price of oil isn't anywhere near it's all time high, it isn't even going to average across an entire year as high as it was during the 2011-2014 timeframe, and you might be taking it up the backside in electricity costs in "ain't got nuttin but syrup and lumber" land, but we don't all live in nowhere-ville Maine. Try a dog sled? With an EV you shouldn't care the least about fuel costs anyway, so what's the deal? Let the ill-informed in their obsolete transport suffer the economic consequences of their poor choices, it doesn't bother EVers like you and me in the least!
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 18 Nov 2021, 09:43:31

Revi wrote:The price of oil is up by almost 70%. Electricity is up by 80%. If this isn't peak oil, what is it?

• Oil prices slipped to their lowest level in almost six weeks amid indications that more supply is on the way.
• Inventories at the main delivery hub for US oil futures saw their first weekly increase after five straight declines.
• The IEA forecast earlier that it sees US producers ramp up their oil production.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ng-2021-11


This isn't peak oil, this is still COVID messing with the supply chain—and the US exporting oil as fast as possible. 5 years ago I was ranting that allowing exports of oil and gas would screw US consumers in the end and I was right... we've been printing money to give drillers so they can export our last great endowment—at a loss. Brilliant.

Don't expect any more stability in oil price than there ever was, no matter what happens. There are trillions of dollars of loose money out there looking for a return and you can bet they will be piling on any rise or fall in oil in storage.

Here is the good news, $80 feels a little high but Rystad says $80 will get you 1,400 Billion barrels—actually that the average cost of 100mmb/d is about $45. That's down from $100/bbl for the same amount in 2014. Also, potential production is about 115mmb/d through 2030 at least. Unless you're just wanting to be skeered, read that link.

Image

Hopefully that gives us some time to transition. If so we can lower demand before decline kicks in. It feels like there is too much emphasis on defunding the oil companies and not enough on building out RE, charging networks, conservation etc. Here is what Rystad said
“As the theoretical supply in 2030 exceeds the demand trajectory by more than 10 million bpd, climate policies should be more demand-focused rather than supply-focused. Supply cuts enacted within one country will largely be countered by supply increases from other countries, while demand cuts are not met with new sources of demand,” says Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy.

IOW, forcing institutions to defund fossils only gives less scrupulous investors less competition. Better to reduce demand.

Doesn't help that half our representatives are bought and paid by the carbon industry. To be fair, neither does it help that the other half's biggest program in its "social" infrastructure bill's is a SALT tax break for the rich rather than, say, demand focused conservation rebates, EV rebates or whatever. Hard to claim the high ground when you're slopping the pigs.

Lest anyone think I've gone all corny, I almost bought a little place in Iowa last week. Just big enough for small tight house and growing a little corn and a cow. We're visiting ND next week and will look around N MO and Iowa on the way... unless it blizzards...

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby rangerone314 » Tue 23 Nov 2021, 09:58:26

Good at chopping wood?
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 11:30:32

rangerone314 wrote:Good at chopping wood?

Actually, having a little woodlot in a woods area is a main goal this time out.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 11:52:34

How much longer can you peak oil denier shills keep up your charade?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 13:48:04

Armageddon wrote:How much longer can you peak oil denier shills keep up your charade?


Image
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 25 Nov 2021, 20:17:47

Time to bring on another Covid variant to slow the economy to hide the energy cliff.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 26 Nov 2021, 11:01:55

Right on cue
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 26 Nov 2021, 20:58:06

Pops wrote:
rangerone314 wrote:Good at chopping wood?

Actually, having a little woodlot in a woods area is a main goal this time out.


I hope you find a great place with a woodlot, pops.

I've got four acres of birch and alder around my cabin here, and every fall I chainsaw down some trees and then I cut 1-2 cords of firewood from trees I cut down the year before.

I enjoy it. I cut a few selected trees when they get big enough to block my view of Denali and the Alaska Range, and then I let them dry for a year or two before chainsawing the the dry wood into smaller pieces that I can cram into my wood stove in the winter.

Its a good healthy thing to do......and when it gets down to -30--as is predicted here for Sunday---- If I didn't have that wood to burn I'd pretty much freeze to death. I feel good when I cut it, good when I haul it, good when I stack it, and good when I burn it. And I feel great when I look out from my warm cabin in winter and see the mountains. Its a win-win-win-win deal.

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby randomguyonabike » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 20:36:43

the system is on the verge of collapsing right now

mass volatility starting up again

the federal govt is now borrowing to pay the debt and the interest

we are in the end game now

oil production is falling hence.....COVID-19 scamdemic

the shales are going belly up

it is going to be all over soon
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 23:21:18

Plantagenet wrote:I've got four acres of birch and alder around my cabin here, and every fall I chainsaw down some trees and then I cut 1-2 cords of firewood from trees I cut down the year before.


And is the electrical service at the cabin sufficient to charge your EV? :)
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 Nov 2021, 23:23:22

randomguyonabike wrote:it is going to be all over soon


Well, we are some 13 years past the last "going to be over soon", do you figure this one will be any sooner than the one claimed in 2008?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 28 Nov 2021, 09:31:14

This is the only peak oil chart that matters, expenditures on energy goods and services as a percent of total personal consumption expenditures. This is through October 2021

Image

Unless energy jumps to a significant part of personal consumption expense, peak or not is moot. Regardless of any blather about oil becoming worthless, for the foreseeable future, a shortage of oil —or even that perception, will increase the price. Oil is about 60% of energy costs in PCE so if it quickly tripled in price to say $250bbl, total energy expense might be 8% or 10% of PCE, near the 1972 level.

Many of our habits, like driving to work, are hard to change so oil price is inelastic in the short run. So right away other spending suffers and of course most everything we buy is shipped, trained, trucked, when we cut back on other purchases much of the demand destruction is commercial. That's why many big oil price jumps proceed recessions (also overheated economies are both energy intense and prone to collapse).

But of course recessions reduce the average income ... and since income is where personal consumption comes from, the energy expenditure percentage rises even more.

Eventually though demand destruction (conservation or recession) puts a lid on the price increase. The difference in the event of peak oil will be that oil production doesn't eventually increase and allow the economy to return to growth. Instead oil production continues to decline, and its portion of personal consumption increases to some point.

I don't know what that point is. Guess we'll find out.

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Doly » Wed 01 Dec 2021, 15:32:36

The difference in the event of peak oil will be that oil production doesn't eventually increase and allow the economy to return to growth. Instead oil production continues to decline, and its portion of personal consumption increases to some point.


That depends on how much oil the average person is using. With ethanol now part of the normal petrol mix, and car usage decreasing, and an increase in electric vehicles, it's quite possible that we see peak oil without any major increases in the portion of personal consumption expenditure. That seems to be what a lot of movers and shakers have been aiming for, but whether they achieve it or not is another question. In fact, there's a good argument that peak oil is happening about now, but we aren't noticing it much in the price of oil.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 02 Dec 2021, 10:02:07

Doly wrote:That depends on how much oil the average person is using. With ethanol now part of the normal petrol mix, and car usage decreasing, and an increase in electric vehicles, it's quite possible that we see peak oil without any major increases in the portion of personal consumption expenditure. That seems to be what a lot of movers and shakers have been aiming for, but whether they achieve it or not is another question. In fact, there's a good argument that peak oil is happening about now, but we aren't noticing it much in the price of oil.

Hi Doly, long time no see!

Car use isn't decreasing, oil demand isn't peaking, EVs haven't taken over...

Miles driven was increasing right up to the shutdowns in the US:

Image


The EIA expects oil production to keep growing indefinitely:

Image


Hard to find a good visual of EVs but so far they only account for 2-3% of the 1.4 billion passenger vehicles globally. At current production of 2-3 million year it will take a while, although there were about 100 million total passenger vehicles produced in 2018 so that percentage has lots of room to grow.

But remember, passenger vehicles only account for about 25% of total oil consumption. Even if you outlawed new ICEs, it would take at least 15 years to replace them all. But I'm pretty sure that ain't gonna happen.

Hard to know the future. I'm happy with the progress so far in renewables, storage, BEV "mainstreaming" and such. If peak/decline holds off another 10-15 years, the US government doesn't again fall into the hands of the oil lobby, if the massive ponzi scheme that is the global economy stays inflated just a while longer we might be able to start on a transition.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Doly » Fri 03 Dec 2021, 14:02:05

Car use isn't decreasing


And you just produced the chart that shows that with the pandemic it did, in fact, decrease. More people are working from home now. It may be a temporary thing, but it could also become the new normal. The technology for home office is all there. And, more significantly, a number of companies have realised that they can save on office space. The situation reminds me a bit of flat screens. It was really hard to convince your boss to change your monitor to a flat screen, and then, all of a sudden, everybody realised at the same time that flat screens were cheaper. Not saying it's going to happen, but pointing out it could well happen.

Nice to see the old timers are still around. I left the forums because I started getting involved in my local Transition Town, then the whole project fell apart and I spent some time focusing on trying to answer the question: why the hell is it so hard for energy issues to move the needle politically, when everybody needs energy? By now I got my answer, sort of. It isn't energy issues per se, more that the dysfunction of American politics is snowballing and affecting other countries. Energy issues just were there first, precisely because they are so crucial.

So I'm going full circle for a little while, while I decide where to focus next.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby gollum » Fri 03 Dec 2021, 14:51:14

It seems to me that the jobs that are necessary for society to function all have to be done in person. It's impossible to be a doctor or a cop or the guys that keep the electricity going from home. So in my humble opinion it's all those home based jobs that will be in danger as society simplifies.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 03 Dec 2021, 15:38:57

Doly wrote:
Car use isn't decreasing


More people are working from home now. It may be a temporary thing, but it could also become the new normal. The technology for home office is all there.


Like gollum said, basically any job that can be done from home is a mouse-pusher job, a bureaucratic job, and those jobs will be shed as the energy situation gets worse and worse. It's also very easy for a boss to sack someone in these situations, and that's happening too. What the world will need in the future is more farm labor, people out building, or rebuilding, efficient railways, roads, etc. The media is very shallow and they promote this concept of work from home like it's a huge trend, and it was, in limited fields.

How do you get rid of millions of workers you can't afford to pay? The No Jab No Job policy that is being implemented all across the globe is one effort they are implementing. Many of these workplaces were struggling to pay the wages of the staff, but cutting back can be a political time bomb. No problem, blame it on the Magic Virus, as Catherine Austin Fitts, calls it. Push the redundant workers out into poverty and rework your budget.
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