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Have we hit the peak?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 23 Oct 2020, 14:41:12

:badgrin:
Armageddon wrote:Trump always says we are energy independent. I don’t have the exact numbers, but we product approx 12 mbpd and consume 20 mbpd. How is this energy independent?




So we turn some of the approx 8 mbpd excess that we import into refined products and export them and call ourselves energy independent?


Aren’t we still importing 8 mbpd?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 23 Oct 2020, 14:50:00

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:US becoming a major petroleum products exporting,


https://money.cnn.com/2018/03/07/news/e ... index.html

Does that mean the US is officially a 3rd world nation?


Not by any definition of 3rd world I am aware of.

mousepad wrote:Largest exports are food and oil, while the eu and the chinese export high tech?


Good thing the US exports far more than food and oil then. As far as food though, there is quite an irony in that the US being both the world's bread basket, major oil exporter, pharmaceuticals, transportation particulars including aircraft, machinery and computers...you know....all those standard 3rd world country exports.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby careinke » Fri 23 Oct 2020, 18:49:06

mousepad wrote:
Largest exports are food and oil, while the eu and the chinese export high tech?


Actually, by tonnage our largest export is soil. Unfortunately we sell none of it, and the loss of it will eventually kill us.

A little dated but still valid.
https://theweek.com/articles/554677/america-running-soil

In the United States alone, soil disappears 10 times faster than it is naturally replenished, according to the Cornell study, at an estimated rate of nearly 1.7 billion tons of farmland alone per year. And it comes at a financial cost, too, with the American economy losing roughly $37 billion in productivity annually from soil loss.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby mousepad » Fri 23 Oct 2020, 19:54:49

AdamB wrote: there is quite an irony in that the US being both the world's bread basket,

I know, it's quite sad that the BIGGEST export is low tech. I always thought the US to be high tech. Guess I was wrong.

transportation particulars including aircraft

Like what? Cars the world don't want to buy, planes that fall from the sky?
http://www.worldstopexports.com/car-exports-country/

, machinery

Like what? Caterpillars? All others come from germany and japan.

and computers

http://www.worldstopexports.com/compute ... s-country/
holy shit, US is even lagging behind Netherland in computer export. I didn't think it was THAT bad. Did you?

...you know....all those standard 3rd world country exports.

I guess we have to concentrate on what we are really good at. Printing and exporting $$$ and our great new achievement: wokeness.
Or maybe we can export them trump and biden lawn signs? Ahh shit, no we can't. Those are printed in china, right?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Oct 2020, 07:57:11

careinke wrote:
mousepad wrote:
Largest exports are food and oil, while the eu and the chinese export high tech?


Actually, by tonnage our largest export is soil. Unfortunately we sell none of it, and the loss of it will eventually kill us.

A little dated but still valid.
https://theweek.com/articles/554677/america-running-soil

In the United States alone, soil disappears 10 times faster than it is naturally replenished, according to the Cornell study, at an estimated rate of nearly 1.7 billion tons of farmland alone per year. And it comes at a financial cost, too, with the American economy losing roughly $37 billion in productivity annually from soil loss.


Thanks for the article.

ONE of my BIG FIVE problems facing humanity is resource depletion, which includes soil along with water and oil and other resources. Timber is another.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 24 Oct 2020, 11:06:59

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote: there is quite an irony in that the US being both the world's bread basket,

I know, it's quite sad that the BIGGEST export is low tech.


Not sad at all. Typical American corporate ability to drive price down to cost of production through being a intellectual/manufacturing/technological powerhouse, rather than just "it's all we gots" which is the default position of 3rd World Countries.

In other words, the US can play the table at this better than anyone else. Has been for 70 years, and while abit gut wrenching along the way, we sure ain't no 3rd world country because we happen to go agricultural as well as aircraft.

mousepad wrote:I always thought the US to be high tech. Guess I was wrong.


You weren't. If you don't understand that a Boeing 737 isn't high tech you really need to, you know, learn stuff.

mousepad wrote:
...you know....all those standard 3rd world country exports.

I guess we have to concentrate on what we are really good at. Printing and exporting $$$ and our great new achievement: wokeness.


The US has been the world reserve currency longer than most of us has been alive. You take a wiki course recently that ill informed you on how global finance has been trucking along with the US involved all along the way, and you want to pretend this is NEW?

Where have you been hiding your entire life? Someplace without books, the telly, or anyone with firing synapses to talk to?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 31 Oct 2020, 07:12:16

Crude Oil Production
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_CRD_CR ... BLPD_M.htm
Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
12,737 12,010 10,019 10,442 10,980 10,579
realgreenadaptation.blog
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 24 Oct 2021, 16:53:23

I think so, but I thought it had happened before. It's one of those things that was bound to happen some time! We even made a film about it.
Here's our film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5efV-w8Ejk
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 00:43:11

Revi wrote:I think so, but I thought it had happened before. It's one of those things that was bound to happen some time! We even made a film about it.
Here's our film:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5efV-w8Ejk


Commentary.

I found the early religious tie-in to be completely appropriate.
4:00 : Top and top of oil production....no mention of all the other times this was claimed to be true as well.
4:30 : Need clips of peak oilers that don't give away the hint that 2005 was when most folks were tinkling themselves over the idea. Professor seems okay in that he hedges WAY off into the future. Like some folks should have done when they fell for it in 2005...hint hint hint Iver. Professor doesn't mention peak demand Iver. Oops. Perhaps you needed an economics professor to give you the ability to discuss both mechanisms capable of causing peak oil
6:44 : Obsessive behavior Iver. tsk tsk. And you've been "preaching" it? Iver, are you not just an acolyte in the church for perhaps a PRIEST!
8:15 : You don't have to go through all the stages to get to the math of peak oil Iver. Maybe you can make that point after the next peak oil and another movie?
10:45 : Peak oil going to make people unhappy? What? 3 years in Iver, has it bothered your retirement? Are you unable to run your little road side stand?
11:40 : Your mom is great!
17:07 : $10/gal gas!!! You understand we haven't seen that, 3 years post peak, right Iver? And those of us EVing don't even care? Why should you care? GIVE US EV OR GIVE US DEATH!
20:50 : LED light bulbs to save the world! Love it!
23:40 : More religiosity! Come on Iver, you don't have to prove my point that peak oil is as much a faith based system centered on doom as rapture event. You'll be saved, just use these LED lights!
27:17 : Bicycle with 4 wheels and electric motor looks awful dangerous with all those monster cages all around you. Be careful Iver.
31:30 : Sister doesn't sound thrilled with the Happy McDoomster angle Iver. She gets it that there is some fantasy land in here, doesn't she?
37:30 : For someone with a baby EV Iver, you sure do a bunch of gasoline powered motoring around. I'm not sure I've even seen you bicycling around yet, except the bicycle wheels on the homebuilt EV.
51:55 : Looks damn dangerous Iver. Hopefully you've replaced that little thing with a real one by now? After all, we're 3 years past peak, and gasoline is reached $3/gal! Again! So it must be getting close to Rapture time?
52:45 : Electric bike? Think bigger!

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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 08:23:40

AdamB wrote:8:15 : You don't have to go through all the stages to get to the math of peak oil Iver. Maybe you can make that point after the next peak oil and another movie?

I'm wondering when peak oil is going to be. What's your prediction?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 08:48:58

There is no way to know at present. In the confusion of the pandemic it is hard to tell which way is up. Oil price is up and storage falling but there are supply problems everywhere, labor is having a moment, vehicles sales are down, etc.$80+ bbl tells us that if it is peak, it isn't demand peak. $80 also tells us it probably isn't supply peak either.

Although I'm starting to wonder if we will even be able to tell peak just from the price of oil. More and more stuff being pumped/dug/fracked is not in the sweet spot to be refined into diesel and unleaded— but they are churned out and counted as "oil". Maybe $5 or $8 diesel (plus tax) for some sustained period? (3 or 4 € / liter)

Image

There are more rumblings in the fossils world than ever, even counting back when PO was a thing. Feels like jockeying for position. US frackers just fracking DUCs, not drilling— must be the only way to show a profit and pay the mortgage? Oil majors fighting each other to be the greenest non-oil oil company. OPEC showing they have no spare capacity. Above all everyone makes a point to not imply there will ever be a supply problem, it is always the consumers choice that leaves fossils behind, Demand Peak...

Saw a story on a site I won't cite saying Charles Hall et. al. now say that the energy cost to extract oil is 15% and will soon rise to 25% making oil too energy inefficient to produce... LOL, didn't anyone tell them that ICE engines already waste 80% of the energy they burn?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 08:56:45

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:8:15 : You don't have to go through all the stages to get to the math of peak oil Iver. Maybe you can make that point after the next peak oil and another movie?

I'm wondering when peak oil is going to be. What's your prediction?


That is a loaded question for me, and one I am not prepared to answer.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 09:01:55

Pops wrote:Saw a story on a site I won't cite saying Charles Hall et. al. now say that the energy cost to extract oil is 15% and will soon rise to 25% making oil too energy inefficient to produce... LOL, didn't anyone tell them that ICE engines already waste 80% of the energy they burn?


And Charlie is already famous for declaring that net energy would require all oil drilling in the US to stop before the turn of the century. He has a worse track record than Campbell in this regard. A fisheries ecologist should know better than to assume resource economic questions ain't fish.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 09:12:12

AdamB wrote:
mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:8:15 : You don't have to go through all the stages to get to the math of peak oil Iver. Maybe you can make that point after the next peak oil and another movie?

I'm wondering when peak oil is going to be. What's your prediction?


That is a loaded question for me, and one I am not prepared to answer.


Yes, but do you have a feeling? Based on your experience and knowledge. You know, like any good engineer has some gut feeling about a situation, a ball park number.
10 years? 100 years? 1000 years?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 09:38:36

Pops wrote:Above all everyone makes a point to not imply there will ever be a supply problem, it is always the consumers choice that leaves fossils behind, Demand Peak...

Or like this story from this morning, yea supply peak but because we wanted too, or maybe just accidentally stumbled into it...

Oct 25 (Reuters) - Twin peaks: Whether it's supply or demand, oil era heads for crunch time

Energy transition and peak demand predictions have spooked investors in oil, putting the prospect of peak production sooner than anticipated accompanied by wild price spikes.

Key climate talks are set to begin at the end of this month in Glasgow, Scotland to tackle global warming under the 2015 Paris Agreement, with fossil fuel in policy-makers' crosshairs.

But as it stands now, mobility curbs which hollowed out both spending on upstream oil projects and oil end use may already be set to permanently rein in the growth of both supply and demand.

"On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand," the research department of bank Morgan Stanley said in a note this week.

"The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak. However, this is such a well-telegraphed prospect that it has solicited its own counter-response already: low investment."

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 021-10-25/
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 25 Oct 2021, 10:13:42

mousepad wrote:
AdamB wrote:That is a loaded question for me, and one I am not prepared to answer.


Yes, but do you have a feeling?


More than a feeling, but that itself is part of the problem.

mousepad wrote:Based on your experience and knowledge.


More than that even.

mousepad wrote:You know, like any good engineer has some gut feeling about a situation, a ball park number.
10 years? 100 years? 1000 years?


With any reasonable assumption of price (<$200/bbl) and demand (declining slightly this half of the century, stable this half of the century, or increasing slightly through mid-century), there is no REQUIREMENT that scarcity will cause a crude oil peak before that point in time. "Requirement" meaning there is no technical reason why crude oil supply cannot continue to meet demand requirements as I've defined them across the given time frame. It is far more likely that a crude oil peak in demand via environmental changes/rules/mandated behavior will occur, this half century.

Any discussion involving the latter half of the century would require crude oil scarcity scenarios, based on technical issues alone. This answer excludes crude substitution via other hydrocarbon conversion means, CTL, GTL (including hydrates), etc etc.

Once upon a time on this website, when asked this question, I would answer along the lines of "when demand exceeds supply for millions of barrels a day until storage is exhausted". It irritated folks because it didn't have a time. My opinion has since been refined with additional research and data.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby Revi » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 20:59:21

Of course we've hit the peak.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 11 Nov 2021, 23:26:09

Revi wrote:Of course we've hit the peak.


6th one claimed this century!! It is like this revolving door of doomer prophesy, coming true on average every 3 years! Far better than that climate change doom, sitting around, things get a little warmer, people whine and pretend to care, rinse and repeat until something real like old age, a car accident or heart disease gets us.

But we can keep selling peakoil doomer porn for like, decades! Pitch it to the kids, groom new church members, maybe suckers who fell for any of the previous ones, isn't that great?
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 15:38:21

We hit it in 2008, as predicted. The tight oil and shale is a sick joke that never paid for itself but it's obviously fooled a lot of people.

The U.S. Shale Revolution Has Surrendered to Reality

Jul 16, 2021
https://www.desmog.com/2021/07/16/us-sh ... nvestment/
Fracking companies aren’t drilling as investment continues to dry up.

If it ever made a profit it wouldn't need investment, or at least the investment $$$ would be pouring in. All those suckers lost their money, 500 Billion and more. Now it's only the collapsing economies that's keeping us ahead of the depletion curve. Thank you Covid, you solved the problem and kept the masses for panicking over it.
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Re: Have we hit the peak?

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 16 Nov 2021, 16:04:30

theluckycountry wrote:We hit it in 2008, as predicted.


But not in 2002, as predicted. Not in 2005, as predicted. Not in 2006, as predicted. I'll give you 2008, as predicted. Not in 2015, as predicted. And 2018 stands as the current peak oil.

Where have you been to miss all of this, too much riding fancy motorcycles while pretending to care about the environment and homey living in the outback?

theluckycountry wrote: The tight oil and shale is a sick joke that never paid for itself but it's obviously fooled a lot of people.


Yes...right now...tell it to the "darling of the investors"

Learn more. Those of us making money from oil and gas sourced and reservoired in shales in the 80's and 90's were doing it at $<20/bbl and <$2/mcf without the likes of you noticing, and without borrowing. Don't like what happens when something can scale? Go whine to the German mechanics working on your motorcycle, they probably don't know any more than you do on the topic and therefore aren't in a position to spot your ignorance on the topic at large.

Poor Aussies...ain't got no oil...being jealous of Saudi America.

'MURIKA!
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