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GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING


Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby dissident » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 19:12:30

The cold SST anomaly is also interacting with the atmospheric storm tracks. The storm tracks are pseudo-organized paths for baroclinic eddies and exhibit a dynamics of their own. The North Atlantic anomaly is like a topographic feature (geopotential height anomaly) that the Rossby waves at the core of the synoptic scale circulation respond to.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ridiculously persistent flow pattern we had this winter with abnormally cold temperatures persisting into March is due to the cooling over the Atlantic.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 20:09:09

It's supposed to get to 72 F Thursday afternoon and then plunge to 29 F early Saturday.

18162015 was the year without a summer

Yeah, this would be or is big. I'm betting on 2016 being the complete shutdown. A nice round 200 years since the year without a summer. Although that one according to the song was due to the Tambora volcano.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Lore » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 20:19:48

Not a Day After Tomorrow, but it's suggested that a slow down or complete shutdown could raise East Coast seal levels by as much as a meter on top of the increase from melt. Not good for New York and Boston.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 20:31:04

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ener ... sequences/

Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby GHung » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 20:33:10

Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ener ... sequences/

Welcome to this week’s installment of “Don’t Mess with Geophysics.”

Last week, we learned about the possible destabilization of the Totten Glacier of East Antarctica, which could unleash over 11 feet of sea level rise in coming centuries.

And now this week brings news of another potential mega-scale perturbation. According to a new study just out in Nature Climate Change by Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a group of co-authors, we’re now seeing a slowdown of the great ocean circulation that, among other planetary roles, helps to partly drive the Gulf Stream off the U.S. east coast. The consequences could be dire – including significant extra sea level rise for coastal cities like New York and Boston.....


But wait! Just a couple of months ago:

New Simulations Question the Gulf Stream’s Role in Tempering Europe’s Winters

It's the flow of warm tropical water across the Atlantic that keeps European winters mild, right? Maybe not
Jan 15, 2013 |By Stephen C. Riser and M. Susan Lozier

Three new climate studies indicate that our long-held belief about the Gulf Stream's role in tempering Europe's winters may not be correct. Yet the studies themselves do not agree.
Two of the three studies ascribe a surprisingly large role to the direction of the prevailing winds, and one focuses on the heat lost from the ocean.
Many climate models indicate that extensive melting of Arctic ice would not actually shut down the Gulf Stream, as previously thought.
The ocean's influence on climate in Europe and elsewhere should become clearer within a decade, now that a global array of more than 3,000 floating ocean sensors called Argo is making near-real-time maps of temperature and salinity down to 2,000 meters.

For a century, schoolchildren have been taught that the massive ocean current known as the Gulf Stream carries warm water from the tropical Atlantic Ocean to northwestern Europe. As it arrives, the water heats the air above it. That air moves inland, making winter days in Europe milder than they are in the northeastern U.S.

It might be time to retire that tidy story. The explosion of interest in global climate has prompted scientists to closely study the climatic effects of the Gulf Stream only to discover that those effects are not as clear as conventional wisdom might suggest. Based on modeling work and ocean data, new explanations have emerged for why winter in northern Europe is generally less bitter than winter at the same latitudes in the northeastern U.S. and Canada—and the models differ on the Gulf Stream's role. One of the explanations also provides insight into why winter in the U.S. Northwest is warmer than it is across the Pacific in eastern Russia.

At the same time, recent studies have been casting doubt on the popular conjecture made a few years ago that melting of Arctic ice could “shut down” the Gulf Stream, thereby wreaking havoc with Europe's weather. Yet the studies do suggest that climate change could at least affect the strength of the Gulf Stream, which could lessen the impact of global warming on northern Europe.

Competing Theories......

more: http://www.scientificamerican.com/artic ... s-winters/
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby vox_mundi » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:01:32

And more fresh water ...

Massive amounts of fresh water, glacial melt pouring into Gulf of Alaska

Incessant mountain rain, snow and melting glaciers in a comparatively small region of land that hugs the southern Alaska coast and empties fresh water into the Gulf of Alaska would create the sixth largest coastal river in the world if it emerged as a single stream, a recent study shows.

The collective fresh water discharge of this region is more than four times greater than the mighty Yukon River of Alaska and Canada, and half again as much as the Mississippi River, which drains all or part of 31 states and a land mass more than six times as large.

"Freshwater runoff of this magnitude can influence marine biology, nearshore oceanographic studies of temperature and salinity, ocean currents, sea level and other issues," said David Hill, lead author of the research and an associate professor in the College of Engineering at Oregon State University.

This is one of the first studies to accurately document the amount of water being contributed by melting glaciers, which add about 57 cubic kilometers of water a year to the estimated 792 cubic kilometers produced by annual precipitation in this region. The combination of glacial melt and precipitation produce an amount of water that's larger than many of the world's great rivers, such as the Ganges, Nile, Volga, Niger, Columbia, Danube or Yellow River.

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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:29:21

It's funny really, how little we actually understand, and yet there are those among us who want to do geoengineering to stop climate change. Good luck with that. We can't model what we have let alone what we think will happen.

Simply put the on'y way to back out of this problem, to the extent we can, is to stop doing what we are doing, stop burning ff.

But that won't happen.

This all sounds too much like the prelude to a bad 1960's horror film, the opening scenes, where the scientists realizes the problem and try's to tell the world/government, but they won't listen.

Hang on folks, it's gonna be a wild ride!
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:34:15

I am glad we all didn't die from Ebola so we can now watch this new crisis unfold.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:43:44

dissident wrote:The cold SST anomaly is also interacting with the atmospheric storm tracks. The storm tracks are pseudo-organized paths for baroclinic eddies and exhibit a dynamics of their own. The North Atlantic anomaly is like a topographic feature (geopotential height anomaly) that the Rossby waves at the core of the synoptic scale circulation respond to.

I wouldn't be surprised if the ridiculously persistent flow pattern we had this winter with abnormally cold temperatures persisting into March is due to the cooling over the Atlantic.



Interesting ideas Lore. There seem to be all kinds of records occurring over the last few years in east coast temperature, ice, circulation patterns.

For a few years at least Philly winters have been colder than Bonavista, Newfoundland, at least into January. Yet the West coast of Newfoundlnd has had heavy snowfall and the Cabot Straights have been blocked with ice, worst in 30years. Nares Straight lost its ice block. Record warm waters in the Gulf of Maine area a few years ago. Etc.

It's clear that this region is warming. What is not clear, at least to me, is the shorter term trends. The patterns seem to be changing. There is a lack of stability, which is not surprising due to all the interactions. Makes any kind of planning damn hard.

I listened to a 4 year old interview with James Lovelock the other evening. He mentioned the changing Gulf Stream and contribution of the winds as opposed to the waters. So this is not entirely new science. But he also said that while it LOOKS like we are heading for massive global waring he would not rule out an ice age, simply because the system dynamics were too complex to model.

Smart man.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:46:13

Ibon wrote:I am glad we all didn't die from Ebola so we can now watch this new crisis unfold.


Is this Ibon speaking? Or are you simply channeling the OP. :shock:

:lol:
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:59:02

GHung, vox, Newf...you guys are, quite literally in this particular case, my life.

Thank you
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 22:17:32

Newfie wrote:
Ibon wrote:I am glad we all didn't die from Ebola so we can now watch this new crisis unfold.


Is this Ibon speaking? Or are you simply channeling the OP. :shock:

:lol:


The OP prefers us frozen then dying of disease in an overheated planet. This way he can thaw us out slowly and use us as a finite resource for a couple hundred years
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 02:43:14

OK, so are we in for a mini ice age instead?
Spring arrived on the west coast of Europe as usual this year, so so far so good as far as this year's weather is concerned.

Looks sensationalist to me, to say the least! (time to insulate the cat).

PS the imminent shutdown of the gulf stream has been forecasted for as long as I can remember, I heard all this back in the 1970s, so colour me sceptical, anyway the Arctic sea ice is still being restrained in the north-east Atlantic by the gulf stream.

If that ice advances south of Iceland then I'll think again.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 06:42:48

You could sell me on the mini ice age idea. Each of our last four winters has been colder than the previous one. This February was the coldest on record. Open fields are still snow covered even though we had less snow than normal this winter. Daily temperatures continue to average well below normal. Yesterday started off at -17 C and I had to dress the way I would in January for the bike ride to work. I have no memory of having to dress so warmly at the end of March in any previous year. I am really wondering if next winter is going to be even colder than this one was.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Lore » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 08:44:10

yellowcanoe wrote: I am really wondering if next winter is going to be even colder than this one was.


It's possible, as the study suggests, the Northeast coast of the Americas is in a unique position of being about the only colder than normal place on the planet where humans live. Everywhere else is warming up.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Timo » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 09:27:09

One key factor in the Drake Equation (an equation that approximates the chances of intelligent life on other worlds) is the probability that any intelligent civilization survives the development of its own technology. In other words, in order to achieve interstellar travel, or simply interstellar communication, a civilization must exist long enough to advance its own technologies to enable that communication or travel to occur. SETI is currently listening across the entire universe for some signal that confirms the existence of extraterrestrial life, developed enough to send radio waves across the universe. So far, nada. But, that brings us back to an closer examination of ourselves. In order to develop technologies advanced enough to communicate with other sentient beings on other worlds, we need time to do that. While we're working on developing those technologies, our own global culture goes on, advancing a host of different technologies, some of which could actually cease the timeframe necessary to develop the interstellar communication technologies. Before we can become an interstellar species, we must first survive ourselves. Humanity is our own worst enemy. We have the abilities to develop incredibly sophisticated technologies. We also have the abilities to destroy all of life as we currently know it. What's it going to be? It's our choice.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby furrybill » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 11:39:37

yellowcanoe wrote:You could sell me on the mini ice age idea. Each of our last four winters has been colder than the previous one. This February was the coldest on record. Open fields are still snow covered even though we had less snow than normal this winter. Daily temperatures continue to average well below normal. Yesterday started off at -17 C and I had to dress the way I would in January for the bike ride to work. I have no memory of having to dress so warmly at the end of March in any previous year. I am really wondering if next winter is going to be even colder than this one was.


I don't know if it means a little ice age but here in Maine we're in the same boat. My wife's ex is a meteorologist and told me yesterday that February was the coldest on record. Weird that it was colder than January, usually its the other way around. He also said March may be 2nd coldest on record. The coldest? Last year. He attributes all this to warming in the arctic. Mentions that then starts waving his hands in the air and mentioning Siberia and systems off California.

Having just started a mini-orchard on an acre in front of the house this makes me a bit nervous. Colder winters and hotter summers? Going to have to find some truly hardy trees and bushes if I'm going to have fruit and nuts for the family after collapse. Either that or build one huge greenhouse... ;-)
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 12:00:05

I remember reading back when the totally un-scientific movie The Day After came out that real scientists doing real simulations came to the conclusion that the Fulf Stream does not impact European weather as much as originally thought. Evidence for this can be seen in Wasington State and British Columbia Province, the wide Pacific keeps them temperate without a massive heat flux from the Japanese Current.
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Re: GULF STREAM SHUT DOWN NOW HAPPENING

Unread postby Lore » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 12:08:28

The movie, TDAT, wasn't totally unscientific, it's conclusions were a science fiction stretch.
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