[dohboi]

Good points, Lore. And sunspot activity is already near all-time lows, yet we just had the hottest year globally on record and are likely to get another this year. http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/0 ... l-sea-ice/
http://sunspotwatch.com/

Solar activity is about an order of magnitude less significant in its affect on global temperatures as is current changes in GHG levels.

And we actually 'do' quite a bit 'about it' every day--we make it much, much worse by our high carbon lifestyles.

[dolanbaker]

The sunspot cycle still has about 4-5 years to go before minimum, as things currently stand, the sunspot count is still at about 60% of the peak value reached for cycle 24. It was actually a twin peak cycle and we've only recently passed the second peak.

The test of any solar activity induced global cooling is likely to occur around 2020 when this cycle ends and the next one starts. The current cycle started in 2009-10 and there was period of over two years without any sunspots at all.
This also co-coincided with two of the longest cold spells of winter for decades here in Ireland.

[Lore]

This also co-coincided with two of the longest cold spells of winter for decades here in Ireland.

Or, more likely influenced by the topic of this discussion. Since we've just past the warmist year globally on recent recorded record.

[dohboi]

The temperature in any particular winter in any particular place, especially such a tiny spot in the globe as Ireland (sorry about that), is essentially irrelevant.

"It was actually a twin peak cycle..."

Somehow, I don't find that comforting--rather creepy, actually:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsZUsnPYGss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nSqDMq ... pJe873X0bz

[Tanada]

There is a whole sunspot thread but suffice it to say in addition to the 11 year cycle most people are familiar with there is also a century long cycle showing low sunspot activity in the early 1700, 1800, and 1900 centuries. In each of the prior events the cycles returned to normal strength in the following 11 year cycle.

[dolanbaker]

The temperature in any particular winter in any particular place, especially such a tiny spot in the globe as Ireland (sorry about that), is essentially irrelevant.

"It was actually a twin peak cycle..."

Somehow, I don't find that comforting--rather creepy, actually:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsZUsnPYGss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nSqDMq ... pJe873X0bz

Twin peaks, one in late 2011 and the second in 2015.

AS for the irrelevant spot in Europe! Much of North western Europe experienced similar weather.

[Peak_Yeast]

@dolanbaker. Concerning US centricism. To cite your local ideal citizen Homer Simpson: Hehehe, Its funny because it true.

[dohboi]

To circle back to the topic more or less, as dolan's beautiful graphs show, and as T reminds us, recent solar activities are at their lowest for about 100 years at least, yet we have the hottest global temps on record.

As Lore pointed out, cooler weather in Ireland and some other parts of Europe are very likely due to the slowing of the AMOC, the titular theme of the thread.

[dolanbaker]

To circle back to the topic more or less, as dolan's beautiful graphs show, and as T reminds us, recent solar activities are at their lowest for about 100 years at least, yet we have the hottest global temps on record.

As Lore pointed out, cooler weather in Ireland and some other parts of Europe are very likely due to the slowing of the AMOC, the titular theme of the thread.

It should be noted that the past few winters have not been as cold as the winter of 2010, so global trends don't relate very well to local trends.

Having said that, things like the strength of the gulf stream play a major part in the local climate, so it's something to keep an eye on, but as I said earlier - this slowdown was reported about decades ago and so far it really hasn't started a "mini ice age" that was claimed to be the consequence of such a slowdown.

[dohboi]

The 'mini-ice age' thing was always a bit of an exaggeration. Even with no Gulf Stream, Northern European climate would be warmed a bit (above what temps there would be otherwise at that latitude in winter) by winds coming off northern Atlantic.

The recent study, as I understand it, is talking about a very long-term and, so far, very gradual slowdown averaged over the last century or so. There have been increases and decreases in that overall slowdown.

The question now is whether that is likely to accelerate further.

Since melt from Greenland (which seems to be the major contributor to the AMOC slowdown) is accelerating and seems likely to continue to accelerate for some time into the future, it seems likely that the rate of the AMOC slow down will also likely increase.

[dohboi]

The original article that inspired this thread is now available here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/publi ... reCC15.pdf

[dohboi]

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/08/26/s ... ment-49357

Signs of Gulf Stream Slowdown — Sea Level More Than a Foot Higher off US East Coast

sea surface heights off the US East Coast are more than 30 centimeters (one foot) above the 1979 to 2015 average.

[onlooker]

I wonder if a scenario like from the movie "The Day after tomorrow" is likely or possible. Certainly the Gulf stream is being affected. I am sure scientists as we speak are debating this question. Especially as more and more ice from the Arctic Sea is being melted. Wonder who here can enlighten us about probability of a complete shutdown of GS and if it happens when?

[dohboi]

If you mean wrt abrupt sea level rise--no. I know of no science that would support an increase at that height and speed.

[onlooker]

Actually no Dohboi, I mean a abrupt halt in the transference of heat via the Conveyor/Gulf Stream that would plunge Northern Hemisphere into a freeze perhaps also via humongous storms that would have devastating effects on Northern Hemisphere and bury it under snow as per the referenced movie.

[dohboi]

Well, yes, but it is most likely to effect Europe most strongly, as I understand it. But as my linked article indicates, they will indeed likely get battered by a continuous line of storms riding along the differential in sea surface temperature between a cold north and a warmer south.

But overall GW is too far along for any region to see a dramatic cooling trend that will last very long, as far as I've heard.

[Subjectivist]

Actually no Dohboi, I mean a abrupt halt in the transference of heat via the Conveyor/Gulf Stream that would plunge Northern Hemisphere into a freeze perhaps also via humongous storms that would have devastating effects on Northern Hemisphere and bury it under snow as per the referenced movie.

Nope, that movie was pure fantasy. Look at the climate of the coast of British Columbia and Maritime Alaska. They are at the same latitude as Great Britain and have the same climate but no warm Gulf of Mexico water doing the trick. It's just a consequence of being on the windward side of a large body of water.

[onlooker]

update A curious cold spot in the Atlantic has scientists thinking their worst fears have come true
http://inhabitat.com/a-curious-cold-spo ... come-true/

[Cid_Yama]

The Gulf Stream brings warmth to UK and northern Europe. When it slows or stops, temperatures become more like other locations on the planet at that latitude.

In other words, the Gulf Stream made them warmer than they usually would be, the lose just returns them to what would normally be expected at that latitude. No Ice sheets, no mega ice hurricanes.

That movie did a lot of damage with regards to the understanding of average individuals.

[onlooker]

The Gulf Stream brings warmth to UK and northern Europe. When it slows or stops, temperatures become more like other locations on the planet at that latitude.

In other words, the Gulf Stream made them warmer than they usually would be, the lose just returns them to what would normally be expected at that latitude. No Ice sheets, no mega ice hurricanes.

That movie did a lot of damage with regards to the understanding of average individuals.

Ah yes "The Day After Tomorrow" I guess they did for the added drama.