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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 02:09:35

Ibon wrote:This is why I have also said that the most efficient way to cut carbon emissions is to return to the historical norm of civilization prior to the oil age when a small tiny elite rule over economically impoverished serfs.

But for that to be possible mobs must believe in something like all seeing crucified Jew or may be in prophet of the desert or in Kim, the God or at least in saint crocodiles and their masters/enablers from the Underworld.

Failing that mobs will swipe your ruling elites into abyss in no time at all.

I am finding these prospects quite interesting - we are approaching a situation where the highest level of government might be a person of warlord... and these are easily disposable people of short life expectancy.
So for the time of overshoot correction we are likely to embrace chaos.

Take my word for that - in coming decades chaos will reign.
Globally.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 07:18:01

Ibon wrote:This is why I have also said that the most efficient way to cut carbon emissions is to return to the historical norm of civilization prior to the oil age when a small tiny elite rule over economically impoverished serfs.

Obviously, we need to go further back than the last 13,000 years to pre-agriculture with bands of semi-nomadic hunter gathers mixed with marginal agriculture to get emissions right. That return to the original human arrangement may be the result of a hard crash or worse. Too early to tell.

In the meantime, I would say a tiny elite ruling over good citizens should be considered too. For some reason whenever we talk about decline and collapse the results of the conversation are always dark and painful. I do agree in locations this Elite ruling over impoverished masses is likely because of the harsh realities of a destroyed planet in human overshoot. Yet there may be places where enlightened communities have a go at it with strength in their diverse community in sweet spots locations. Communities with less inequality and more solidarity able to do more than the harsh divide of feudalism.

It is likely everyone will be poorer in the gradient of decline. Women will return to their traditional place in the family. Men will be working with their hands more, more animals labor and more child labor. There will be more deaths so likely more births to offset this. Communities and families in this situation will need lots of human labor. This seems to be the future of decline. How quickly we get there depends on managed degrowth or not.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:But for that to be possible mobs must believe in something.


It is equally true the elite need to believe in something. A higher power of meaning is required for all human with a large frontal cortex. The individual and his ego is problematic because of the neurosis of the ego when isolated in itself. What will the high meaning be in the future? If a decline process gets in full swing intelligence will decline because education will decline. Storage of knowledge will decline and the production of new knowledge lowered. The hunter gatherers had superstitions and basic knowledge that tied their life to nature and created a stable system of sorts for small groups. I propose man needs is higher power to be more organic in planetary respect and less wrapped up in the worship of human intellect and self. Isn't this what has happened to man as he has become more intelligent. He has become more obsessed with himself as the center of the universe and less of the universe and the planet itself. The planet is our connection to the universe so I propose a new meaning has to be planetary based.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:Failing that mobs will swipe your ruling elites into abyss in no time at all. .


Where this happens on a degraded planet the results will mean these areas will be open to being outcompeted. Those areas that have less of this more potent with stability. Maybe it will be this understanding between the elites and the mob that in some areas manages to have a better result. In other words cooperation will trump harsh control and or mob rule.

EnergyUnlimited wrote:So for the time of overshoot correction we are likely to embrace chaos…Take my word for that - in coming decades chaos will reign.Globally.


I have been reading about Chaos lately. There seems to be pattern in randomness so the fact that there will be abandonment, dysfunction, and irrational may find some pattern instincts coalesce. I find this very interesting in regards to chaos and change facing man today. Below are notes from a variety of sources I collected that point to deeper patterns and systematic structures of change in the destructive states of chaos. This points to patterns forming in the randomness of the scary chaos of destructive change:

“The Tracy-Widom distribution is an asymmetrical statistical bump, steeper on the left side than the right. Suitably scaled, its summit sits at a telltale value: √2N, the square root of twice the number of variables in the systems that give rise to it and the exact transition point between stability and instability that May calculated for his model ecosystem…Similarly, the physicists realized, the energy curves of certain strongly correlated systems have a kink at √2N. The associated peak for these systems is the Tracy-Widom distribution, which appears in the third derivative of the energy curve — that is, the rate of change of the rate of change of the energy’s rate of change. This makes the Tracy-Widom distribution a “third-order” phase transition…“This phase transition is universal in the sense that it does not depend too much on the microscopic details of your system.”
In ecology, the theory of alternative stable states (sometimes termed alternate stable states or alternative stable equilibria) predicts that ecosystems can exist under multiple "states" (sets of unique biotic and abiotic conditions). These alternative states are non-transitory and therefore considered stable over ecologically-relevant timescales. Ecosystems may transition from one stable state to another, in what is known as a state shift (sometimes termed a phase shift or regime shift), when perturbed. Due to ecological feedbacks, ecosystems display resistance to state shifts and therefore tend to remain in one state unless perturbations are large enough. Multiple states may persist under equal environmental conditions, a phenomenon known as hysteresis. Alternative stable state theory suggests that discrete states are separated by ecological thresholds, in contrast to ecosystems which change smoothly and continuously along an environmental gradient.
Hysteresis can be a dynamic lag between an input and an output that disappears if the input is varied more slowly; this is known as rate-dependent hysteresis. However, phenomena such as the magnetic hysteresis loops are mainly rate-independent, which makes a durable memory possible.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 16:39:41

"...elite ruling over good citizens..."

Why would 'good citizens' have any need of a ruling elite?

After all, there's no government like no government! :o

(On the other hand, anarchy may be hard to enforce! :lol: :lol: )

And my final message of the day (or at least till my nap time is over :-D ) is to encourage everyone to enjoy themselves, because we do not know what tomorrow may bring. Or in the words of Dr. Emilio Lizardo:

https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/a314 ... 7475103b6a

Or, if you prefer Ska style, The Specials:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3MeYJnn5ug
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 16:56:11

dohboi wrote:"...elite ruling over good citizens..." Why would 'good citizens' have any need of a ruling elite? After all, there's no government like no government! :o


Yea, personally I would like to be a part of a semi-nomadic hunter gathers group as their shaman. I guess what I mean is an elite as in the best of the best as the leader chosen by the good citizens. Maybe an Athens as an example.

dohboi wrote: (On the other hand, anarchy may be hard to enforce! :lol: :lol: )


LOL, yea imagine anarchist enforcing anarchy! Seems like it should be natural, that is until the hangover starts and the task of feeding and sheltering gets important.

dohboi wrote:And my final message of the day (or at least till my nap time is over :-D ) is to encourage everyone to enjoy themselves, because we do not know what tomorrow may bring.


Sound wisdom, dohboi!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 17:33:17

@REAL Green,
Your last post is very good.
When I have a bit of time tomorrow I will comment on some issues you have raised.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 21:35:42

Thanks to aslr at asif for text and links:

This is a reminder that the linked reference concludes that if GHG concentration approach Eocene levels, ECS will accelerate rapidly as indicated by the following extract:

"Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C)."

Jiang Zhu, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jessica E. Tierney.

Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks.

Science Advances, 2019; 5 (9): eaax1874 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax1874

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874

Abstract
The Early Eocene, a period of elevated atmospheric CO2 (>1000 ppmv), is considered an analog for future climate. Previous modeling attempts have been unable to reproduce major features of Eocene climate indicated by proxy data without substantial modification to the model physics. Here, we present simulations using a state-of-the-art climate model forced by proxy-estimated CO2 levels that capture the extreme surface warmth and reduced latitudinal temperature gradient of the Early Eocene and the warming of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C). This higher climate sensitivity is mainly attributable to the shortwave cloud feedback, which is linked primarily to cloud microphysical processes. Our findings highlight the role of small-scale cloud processes in determining large-scale climate changes and suggest a potential increase in climate sensitivity with future warming.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 21:55:32

dohboi wrote:
"Our simulations exhibit increasing equilibrium climate sensitivity with warming and suggest an Eocene sensitivity of more than 6.6°C, much greater than the present-day value (4.2°C)."

Jiang Zhu, Christopher J. Poulsen, Jessica E. Tierney.

Simulation of Eocene extreme warmth and high climate sensitivity through cloud feedbacks.

Science Advances, 2019; 5 (9): eaax1874 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aax1874

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874



Actually, we don't precisely know the current day value of climate sensitivity.

The real scary thing about this kind of paleo science is that it suggests the earth has a climate density of ca. 6.6*C, about 50% HIGHER than the current assumption for earth's climate sensitivity.

If the earth's climate sensitivity is 50% HIGHER then current models assume, then ongoing global warming is going to happen more quickly and be more severe then current models assume.

AND there is evidence that supports that....look at the extreme high temperatures we are currently seeing over Siberia----the amazing amount of warming we are seeing RIGHT NOW in Siberia and other high latitude areas is way greater then the models predict. This may be a sign that the climate models are wrong and are greatly UNDERESTIMATING THE amount of global warming we are going to see very very soon.

siberian-heat-wave-is-a-warning-cry-from-the-arctic-climate-scientists-say

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 22:28:20

Good points there, P.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Sun 28 Jun 2020, 22:53:11

Warning Sign of Major Proportions': Number of Siberian Forest Fires Increase Fivefold in Week Since Record High Temperature
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/06/27/warning-sign-major-proportions-number-siberian-forest-fires-increase-fivefold-week

The article says that winds are also kicking ass up there. Here in California, the wind too is a factor as well as the higher temperatures. That whole polar region weather system is gyrating out of control (I watch Beckwith a bit, though not lately, but I just thought of that expression, whether an accurate description or not, I don't know, but worrisome nevertheless).
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 13:21:33

Yes, it's bad up there, and the short and long term forecasts for the Arctic have a lot of people in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum freaking out a bit.

I wonder if the wind will end up blowing a bunch of that ash from the fires up onto the sea ice, further exacerbating melt because of albedo shift.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby JuanP » Mon 29 Jun 2020, 13:24:52

"The Arctic is burning: As temperatures reach 100F, over a million hectares of Siberian forest is on fire"
https://www.rt.com/russia/493252-arctic ... rest-fire/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 08 Jul 2020, 20:13:22

Crises averted, again.

Abnormally cold weather has been recorded in the north of Yakutia with residents of Verkhoyansk district waking up to fresh snow on 5 July.  Just days before that, locals were complaining about the hot and dry beginning of July, with air temperature heating up to +27C on 1 July, and wildfires raging. Earlier, on 17 June this district saw a world record for the Arctic of 38C.


https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/ ... sees-snow/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 09 Jul 2020, 12:26:31

"The Worst Flood in Living Memory" - Yangshuo, China | June 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5_BmrAzfRw&feature=youtu.be

We've crossed the rubicon certainly and it is overflowing.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby JuanP » Thu 09 Jul 2020, 15:15:04

"Global Warming trend to continue over next 5 years"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194049.shtml

This is a reprint of a Reuters article quoting the WMO and Michael Mann.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 11 Jul 2020, 10:05:46

Looks like Jennifer is getting the last laugh over the ABM! See story link to photographs of Australian temperature recordings.

post1416172.html#p1416172

Hottest Day Ever in Australia Confirmed: Bourke 51.7°C, 3rd January 1909

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology deleted what was long regarded as the hottest day ever recorded in Australia – Bourke’s 125°F (51.7°C) on the 3rd January 1909. This record was deleted, falsely claiming that this was likely some sort of ‘observational error’, as no other official weather stations recorded high temperatures on that day.

However, Craig Kelly MP has visited the Australian National Archive at Chester Hill in western Sydney to view very old meteorological observation books. It has taken Mr Kelly MP some months to track down this historical evidence. Through access to the archived book for the weather station at Brewarrina, which is the nearest official weather station to Bourke, it can now be confirmed that a temperature of 50.6°C (123°F) was recorded at Brewarrina for Sunday 3rd January 1909. This totally contradicts claims from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology that only Bourke recorded an extraordinarily hot temperature on that day.

Just today, Friday 10th July 2020, Mr Kelly MP obtained access to this record for Brewarrina, the closest official weather station to the official weather station at Bourke. He has photographed the relevant page from the observations book, and it shows 123°F was recorded at 9am on the morning of Monday 4th January 1909 – published here for the first time. This was the highest temperature in the previous 24 hours and corroborates what must now be recognised as the hottest day ever recorded in Australia of 51.7°C (125°F) degrees at Bourke on the afternoon of Sunday 3rd January 1909.

That the Bureau of Meteorology denies these record hot days is a travesty. Is it because these records contradict their belief in catastrophic human-caused global warming? The temperature of 50.6°C (123°F) recorded back in 1909 which is more than 100 years ago, photographed by Mr Kelly today at the National Archives in Chester Hill, is almost equivalent to the current official hottest day ever for Australia of 50.7 degrees Celsius at Oodnadatta on 2nd January 1960. These are in fact only the fourth and third hottest days recorded in Australia, respectively. Not only has Mr Kelly MP tracked-down the meteorological observations book for Brewarrina, but over the last week he has also uncovered that 51.1°C (124°F) was recorded at White Cliffs for Wednesday 11th January 1939. This is the second hottest ever!



https://jennifermarohasy.com/2020/07/ho ... uary-1909/
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 07:07:57

I am all for bold renewable efforts similar in some ways to what Europe is doing but these need to be reasonable based upon a fracturing decaying economy. IOW what is affordable and rationally based on physics not extremist talk of a fake green future that is not possible.

“Biden Unveils $2 Trillion Plan To Move US To "100% Clean Energy" By 2035”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bid ... nergy-2035

“One of the more laughable campaign promises embraced by Democratic primary opponents during the 2020 primary campaign was a promise - featured prominently in AOC and Sen Markey's "Green New Deal" policy proposal - to move America to "100% clean energy" by 2035. Many who read this initially probably don't understand that yes, they're really calling for the entire US economy to move off of fossil fuels by 2035. Accomplishing such a rapid, radical shift would require a font of disposable capital that would only really make sense under an MMT framework where debt can be accrued without limit and without ever intending for debts to be repaid. Now, that policy commitment has become a featured component of Biden's economic spending plan, which he plans to unveil on Tuesday during another speech. Except unlike the plan he embraced in the primary, this one will include an additional $300 billion commitment to finance the left's green economy dream. But after all that braying and howling about Biden being "neoliberal scum", it appears the far-left has gotten to the former VP, and his team is now overcompensating to a degree that threatens to alienate centrist voters.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 Jul 2020, 10:49:20

dohboi wrote:Why would 'good citizens' have any need of a ruling elite?
After all, there's no government like no government! :o


Yeah. That worked so well with CHAZ.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_H ... #Shootings

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 15 Jul 2020, 09:42:22

“Green Economic Growth is an Article of ‘Faith’ Devoid of Scientific Evidence”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... -evidence/

“The situation is pretty serious. The scientists attempt to identify what genuine decoupling needs to look like, and then seek to discover whether there is any evidence that it is happening. They conclude that there is simply no viable scenario for decoupling: “For absolute resource decoupling to make sense as a global goal, we would need a scenario where, in ca. 30 years, the economy produces 2.6 times more GDP out of every ton of material used, under conditions where material use diminishes ca. 40 percent globally. Currently, no trends corresponding to this scenario are observable and, to our knowledge, no concrete proposals with such a level of decoupling have been presented.” 30 years of scientific data: no evidence of decoupling… The study reviewed 179 scientific studies on decoupling published between 1990 and 2019 — a period of nearly 30 years — and found, in short, that: “… the evidence does not suggest that decoupling towards ecological sustainability is happening at a global (or even regional) scale.” While there is some evidence of ‘impact decoupling’, especially for greenhouse gas emissions in wealthy countries for certain periods of time, there is no evidence of “economy-wide resource decoupling, least of all on the international and global scale. Quite the opposite: there is evidence of increased material intensity and re-coupling… The BIOS team thus concludes that “more attention should be given to conceptualizations of economy that do not rely on economic growth as the key route towards ecological sustainability and human wellbeing.”
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby REAL Green » Wed 15 Jul 2020, 09:55:14

If we conceptualize human economics its simplified version is mostly based on activity or the explanation for the lack of activity. The basis is fundamentally growth. The essence of what is human is growth or spiritually the denial of death impulse. Humans struggle against the death process. Humans want reward for effort. If there is lack of activity it is because needs have been satisfied or there is exhaustion. This is of course simplified and curt but my point is degrowth discussion are always framed within a growth disposition. This means the motivation is to find a way to degrowth with growth. Decoupling is a central element of this as is efficiency and technology. Humans want more from less.

REAL Green accepts this as our path dependency trap. Also accepted is the carbon trap of modern affluence. Carbon is central to affluence because it means technology and travel. We attempt to green this up by claiming we can have this and still be clean. There are those who say we can have more affluence and green. This is mostly delusional but not completely because individually and locally much can be done but in the macro world of competitive cooperation there is a trap that is shaped by limits of a finite planet. Locally with small communities and especially individuals there is almost always room for a managed degrowth. Much or the rewards are spiritual with meaning. Spiritual wealth is metaphysical and abstract. I say this in regards to affluent communities. Much of the world is clearly stressed in poverty in the lack of basic needs often in places of overpopulation.

REAL Green does not attempt to fight this because this is a trap and one that can only be managed around the edges at the macro. Renewables and living wages are part of this macro management of the destructive effects of growth but just a little. Green New Deals are more growth. They will just shift economic growth around with redistribution of activity. It might be a little greener but not much. Renewables as a 100% energy transition paradigm does not pass the test of physics and certainly does not add up economically. Some of this is smart but as a transition paradigm of radical change it is not legitimate. Living wages are likewise not a legit as far as solving the problem of the traps humans are in. The reality is less income fairness and more inequality because of the nture of decline and survival. Today the mistake is saying eliminating unfairness this will lead to more affluence. This is just more of the habituation of growth because in a time of decline the pie is shrinking for all and completely for some.

REAL Green says honesty with science and human nature is needed. If one embraces this then we understand that humans at the macro level are unable to degrowth. Managed degrowth is the only means to mitigate and adapt to limits to growth and planetary and life-based decline. A managed degrowth will mean more poverty and less fairness not because fairness is not a goal but because decline is full of chaos. Chaos in regards to abandonment, dysfunction, and irrational. The simple condition of chaos means the strong will survive and the weak perish. This means a certain amount of triage is inevitable and even desirable if the basic of community are to be protected. So, the degree to which fairness can be achieved is based upon the degree of decline. Too much fairness in difficult times means a failed lifeboat. This is where REAL Green calls on hospice mentality of palliative care. In this process of decline where triage is inevitable then proper behavior of acceptance of death in its many forms is required.

REAL Green then attempts to draw attention to the importance of accepting limits which are traps. It asks for honesty with human destiny. Humans are trapped in growth and no matter how hard they try they will deceive themselves that they can have more growth with less. The only gate keeper is nature through the planet and the web of life. This idea of human exceptionalism of intelligence and development is being checked by planetary limits. Human destiny is negotiable. The planet is now in decline and the web of life in succession. Humans are part of this both with the causes and subject to the results. REAL Green accepts the honest science and human behavior and calls on awakened humans to Green Prep. Green prepping is individual managed degrowth with the goal of increased sustainability and resilience. This is accomplished by using the status quo world of growth. A surreal of using destructive dirty growth to be greener is how this can work for many. There are some that can be TRUE Green with actual proper natural living but few can find this life. There are many who are trapped and have no options but to be dirty and deceived. The result of this planetary succession is for the awakened individual to embrace a survival strategy in a time of macro and global decline. There is no sugar coating this with green new worlds of clean affluence. This is about adapting to a dirty and dangerous decline.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 22

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 16:15:06

Heat waves and climate change...

Extreme heat is becoming more common. Here's why.

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/ ... onnection/

...Extreme heat occurred very rarely 50 years ago in the United States.

But as a result of climate change, the bell curve has already shifted by one standard deviation interval – a measure that tells you how spread out the values are – according to a 2016 paper by climate scientist James Hansen. As a result, extreme summer heat now occurs about 7% of the time.

The U.S. still sets some record lows, but it’s been setting far more record highs. In fact, recent record highs have been outpacing record lows at a ratio of two to one. This difference could grow to 20 to 1 by mid-century and 50 to 1 by the end of the century...
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