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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Nullschooling

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 10:51:01

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 295,69.161

Rome and Athens are chilly while the islands just south of Nova Zembla are above zero.
I think to expect billions to hang in here on Earth after an abrupt CC is uptimistic, millions maybe.
Look at how fragile this modern society is, to go medieval in a decade or another step back hunter gatherer within a few years?
Most of humanity lives in cities, say 4 billion, if 2% makes it for another generation that equals 80 million.
Towns and countryside, farms and homesteads, make that a double, 4% and another 160 million.
People that are already geared for survival, special forces, preppers, elite or natives 10% to last a bit longer.Doomsteads/bunkers/expert hunters.....50 million people give or take, 5 million that make it.
Adds up to 245 million, still very optimistic I think.....millions but billions will be a thing, folly of the past, history.


Think of a worldwide powerdown and see how long mammals last, no freezer, no transport, no information, no nothing as usual.

Must be a movie, disaster on it already.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNfJkMPTtWQ
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 15:03:35

No doubt a doomer but here some science, hard data on collapse:
And yes, I do suck the numbers out of my thumb, but so do you if you think Billions will be alive, especially in large communities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse

Depopulation: Societal collapse is almost always associated with a population decline. In extreme cases, the collapse in population is so severe that the society disappears entirely, such as happened with the Greenland Vikings, or a number of Polynesian islands. In less extreme cases, populations are reduced until a demographic balance is re-established between human societies and the depleted natural environment. A classic example is the city of Rome, which had a population of about 1.5 million at the peak of the Roman Empire during the reign of Trajan in the early 2nd century AD, but in the Early Middle Ages the population had declined to only around 15,000 inhabitants by the 9th century.



City of Rome, 1% from peak to village.

Modern social critics commonly interpret things like sedentary social behavior as symptomatic of societal decay, and link what appears to be laziness with the depletion of important non-renewable resources. However, many primitive cultures also have high degrees of leisure, so if that is a cause in one place it may not be in another—leisure or apparent laziness is then not a sufficient cause.
What produces modern sedentary life, unlike nomadic hunter-gatherers, is extraordinary modern economic productivity. Tainter argues that exceptional productivity is actually more the sign of hidden weakness, both because of a society's dependence on it, and its potential to undermine its own basis for success by not being self limiting as demonstrated in Western culture's ideal of perpetual growth.
As a population grows and technology makes it easier to exploit depleting resources, the environment's diminishing returns are hidden from view. Societal complexity is then potentially threatened if it develops beyond what is actually sustainable, and a disorderly reorganization were to follow. The scissors model of Malthusian collapse, where the population grows without limit and resources do not, is the idea of great opposing environmental forces cutting into each other.
For the modern world economy, for example, the growing conflict between food and fuel, depending on many of the same finite and diminishing resources, is visible in recent major commodity price shocks. It is one of the key relationships researchers, since the early studies of the Club of Rome, have been most concerned with.
Jared Diamond pursues these themes in his 2005 book Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed.[15]



Thus the offspin of the club of Rome 8)

Meanwhile the weather in Rome has been awfull

https://sputniknews.com/europe/20181022 ... et-floods/

The downpours swamped a number of streets, trapping many drivers in their cars; they have also soaked subway stations, forcing the closure of at least six of them, mostly in eastern parts of the city. All stations had reopened by Monday morning, The Local reports.

last year at the end, but trouble today again, news on the Dutch telly.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 15:54:13

Image

https://timeforchange.org/cumulative-co ... by-country

The US remains by a very long shot the country that is directly responsible for the largest total emissions of the gas that is plunging the earth into a permanent scorching heatwave...not what I'd call the most environmentally responsible nation on earth.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 17:57:19

dohboi wrote:The US remains by a very long shot the country that is directly responsible for the largest total emissions of the gas that is plunging the earth into a permanent scorching heatwave...not what I'd call the most environmentally responsible nation on earth.



You can parse the emissions data in a number of ways. If you do it on a per capita basis then England has the highest per capita emissions. If you look at current emissions then China is the largest current CO2 producer.

I think the most productive way to look at CO2 emissions is to look at REDUCTIONS of CO2 emissions. On that basis the US and Russia get gold stars for reducing their CO2 emissions. US emissions have gone down as we shifted from coal to NG for electrical power generation, and Russia's are down because a lot of factories closed down when the USSR collapsed.

The real question going forward is how to get MORE reductions in CO2 emissions. Clearly the voluntary measures in the Paris Accords didn't do it---we need a different approach. IMHO the best thing we could do is ditch the Paris Accords and go back to the original UN plan to craft a binding treaty that would require cuts in global CO2 emissions.

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 24 Feb 2019, 01:20:18

dohboi wrote:Image

https://timeforchange.org/cumulative-co ... by-country

The US remains by a very long shot the country that is directly responsible for the largest total emissions of the gas that is plunging the earth into a permanent scorching heatwave...not what I'd call the most environmentally responsible nation on earth.


Everything being equal there are very few reasons to use a data set that is 16 years out of date. The two most likely reasons are rhetorical standing and pure laziness in updating the data set.

Sure the USA has produced a heck of a lot of CO2 over the 20th century, but time did not stop in 2002 and China passed the USA on total yearly emissions almost a decade ago. there cumulative number is still surely much lower, but they are now catching up with us fairly rapidly as they are producing more than we are. Germany has also undergone a serious CO2 emissions increase since the whole fiasco of Energiweinde was put into effect by replacing low CO2 nuclear with high CO2 coal. On the flip side the USA has closed a lot of old coal burners and switched many more to Natural Gas burning as well as building a lot of Natural Gas primary energy plants. Also the same pattern has taken place in the UK where coal has been almost entirely phased out in favor of Natural Gas for utility scale power plants.

Pretending none of these changes have taken place in the last 16 years is highly suspect.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 24 Feb 2019, 07:25:37

Yale has been doing a study since 2009 tracking Americans CC belief. Here’s the current status.

http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp ... 18-Dec.png

In the original 2009 report the stats are first and 2019 second:
Alarmed 18% ——- 29%
Concerned 33% ——- 30%
Cautious 19% ——— 17%
Disengaged 12% ———- 5%
Doubtful 11% ———- 9%
Dismissive 7% ———— 9%

From the above attitude statistics, compiled by scientists, it seems fairly convincing that there is a hard core of the American population, about 25%, who are beyond conviencing. Why this is I don’t know. But since 15% of milenials are I convienced the world is round while 2% are convienced it is flat (Scientific American) it’s fairly clear that the debate on climate change has an extreamly high acceptance rate among those open to persuasion.

There is a segment who can not, and will not ever be convienced. Time to move on.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby clif » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 13:06:09

unleash the deniers......

Evidence for man-made global warming hits 'gold standard' - scientists

Evidence for man-made global warming has reached a "gold standard" level of certainty, adding pressure for cuts in greenhouse gases to limit rising temperatures, scientists said on Monday.

"Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals," the U.S.-led team wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change of satellite measurements of rising temperatures over the past 40 years.

They said confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth's surface had reached a "five-sigma" level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming.

Such a "gold standard" was applied in 2012, for instance, to confirm the discovery of the Higgs boson subatomic particle, a basic building block of the universe.

Benjamin Santer, lead author of Monday's study at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, said he hoped the findings would win over sceptics and spur action.

"The narrative out there that scientists don't know the cause of climate change is wrong," he told Reuters. "We do."

Mainstream scientists say the burning of fossil fuels is causing more floods, droughts, heat waves and rising sea levels.


https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/25/evi ... scientists
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 15:57:20

Cliff,

Thanks. I used this elsewhere where the denier force is loud and obnoxious.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dissident » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 23:01:11

Using statistics to determine validity of climate change is simply playing into the hands of the deniers. There is nothing stochastic about climate change. It is a pure deterministic process. One sigma or a billion sigma are irrelevant. Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to fundamental climate change. These gases have a single signed response only. Energy is accumulating in the ocean-atmosphere-land system.

Another way to look at it is: the longer we wait the more sigma will be accumulated in the confidence bounds. The noise (variability) is not a causal factor and does not represent any fundamental non-deterministic process.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 11 Mar 2019, 22:03:00

Few Pathways to an Acceptable Climate Future Without Immediate Action

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-pathways- ... ction.html

...The massive analysis shows that meeting the 2.00 C target is exceptionally difficult in all but the most optimistic climate scenarios. One pathway is to immediately and aggressively pursue carbon-neutral energy production by 2030 and hope that the atmosphere's sensitivity to carbon emissions is relatively low, according to the study. If climate sensitivity is not low, the window to a tolerable future narrows and in some scenarios, may already be closed.

... If the climate sensitivity is greater than 3.00K (median of assumed distribution), the pathway to a tolerable future is likely already closed.


Robust abatement pathways to tolerable climate futures require immediate global action, Nature Climate Change (2019).

...not much more to say...
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 21 Mar 2019, 21:18:10

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post- ... els-matter

"Early results suggest ECS values from some of the new CMIP6 climate models are higher than previous estimates, with early numbers being reported between 2.8C (pdf) and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C. The IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5) assessed ECS to be “likely” in the range 1.5C to 4.5C and “very unlikely” greater than 6C."
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 14:53:49

It all sounds fresh and new even though I have been listening to this stuff for years now.

The End of Ice: Climate science roundup—Interview w/Paul Beckwith—Radio Ecoshock 2019-02-14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_jBs-VhdCo

For example, that the North Pole is warming faster then the South Pole and that this is what's causing the Southern hemisphere to have larger heatwaves and the United States to be experiencing more cold waves during the Winter: All related, that a warmer north pole causes the equatorian heat to be experienced more strongly to the south and the polar vortex weakening also allows stronger Winter's (and instability) in the continuental US.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 15:21:47

KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 26 Mar 2019, 10:35:28

In blow to climate, coal plants emitted more than ever in 2018


Energy demand around the world grew by 2.3 percent over the past year, marking the most rapid increase in a decade, according to the report from the International Energy Agency. To meet that demand, largely fueled by a booming economy, countries turned to an array of sources, including renewables.
But nothing filled the void quite like fossil fuels, which satisfied nearly 70 percent of the skyrocketing electricity demand, according to the agency, which analyzes energy trends on behalf of 30 member countries, including the United States.
In particular, a fleet of relatively young coal plants located in Asia, with decades to go on their lifetimes, led the way toward a new record for emissions from coal fired power plants — exceeding 10 billion tons of carbon dioxide “for the first time," the agency said. In Asia, “average plants are only 12 years old, decades younger than their average economic lifetime of around 40 years,” the agency found.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... fffb87e2b1
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Mar 2019, 20:01:18

The Senate just held a vote on OAC's "Green New Deal."

Not a single senator voted for it. Not a single D---not a single R.

Image

I think the chance of getting politicians to step up and do anything serious about climate change is about zero.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby clif » Tue 26 Mar 2019, 21:04:02

The Senate just held a vote on OAC's "Green New Deal."

Not a single senator voted for it. Not a single D---not a single R.


Yes with out a single hearing on the bill, something that is quite unusual for the senate for legislation this transforming.

How transforming you ask?

Renewable energy "meeting 100 percent of the power demand in the United States through clean, renewable, and zero-emission energy sources"


doable, other countries are getting there, and the goal is 2050. PS: lots of new jobs here.....

Smart grid

"building or upgrading to energy-efficient, distributed, and 'smart' power grids, and working to ensure affordable access to electricity"


Given the antiquated and dilapidated state of our current electric grid, probably not a bad idea. PS: lots of new jobs here.....

Energy efficiency

"upgrading all existing buildings in the United States and building new buildings to achieve maximal energy efficiency, water efficiency, safety, affordability, comfort, and durability, including through electrification"


A no brainer .... makes the system more stable if people use less at the same time we upgrade it. It also extends the limited resources, which seems to be a good idea. plus: Lots of new jobs here.

Transportation

"overhauling transportation systems in the United States to eliminate pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector as much as is technologically feasible, including through investment in (i) zero-emission vehicle infrastructure and manufacturing; (ii) clean, affordable, and accessible public transportation; and (iii) high-speed rail"


Just extending what the trend is, getting away from ICE engines, which Europe and China are way ahead of the US (like much else) in doing. Gets a lots of new infrastructure, that lowers the energy threshold while lowering the green house gas emissions. Seems to be an intelligent idea, also: Lots of new jobs here.

Low-tech solutions

"removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and reducing pollution, including by restoring natural ecosystems through proven low-tech solutions that increase soil carbon storage, such as preservation and afforestation"


Nice way to help lower the atmosphere carbon content in ways the planet would do. also bonus some added employment here.

Guaranteed job, leave, vacation and retirement

"guaranteeing a job with a family-sustaining wage, adequate family and medical leave, paid vacations, and retirement security to all people of the United States"


Something EVERY country that has a longer life expectancy and higher living index already has .... might be one thing we could LEARN from other countries instead of always trying to tell them what to do.

Labor laws

"strengthening and enforcing labor, workplace health and safety, anti-discrimination, and wage and hour standards across all employers, industries, and sectors"


Might help the decline in, living standards and life expectancy in the US if people could find better paying jobs than Walmart greeter and Micky D's burger flipper. Also might go a long way to help with the opioid and meth drug crisis.

Providing higher education

"providing resources, training, and high-quality education, including higher education, to all people of the United States, with a focus on frontline and vulnerable communities, so those communities may be full and equal participants in the Green New Deal mobilization"


Funny from WW2 to 1980, the US did this and lead the world in innovation, after the idiocy of Reagan ET AL in gutting everything but for rich people, first Japan, then South Korea/Mexico , but now China constantly outpaces the US ...... till more than half of retail sale is from foreign made goods, and every year we LOSE a little more. Might be time (after 40 years of failure using the Reagan ET AL method) to try something that can turn this simple fact around.
Trade unions
"strengthening and protecting the right of all workers to organize, unionize, and collectively bargain free of coercion, intimidation, and harassment"
Trade unions

"strengthening and protecting the right of all workers to organize, unionize, and collectively bargain free of coercion, intimidation, and harassment"


Interesting, the time trade unions were strongest, the US did the best on the worlds stage economically, but after Reagan ET AL began gutting them, middle class lost ground economically, and quite a few very large problems began to surface, like the enlarging rust belt, loss of manufacturing capacity, growing of the trade deficit, massive drug problems lowering life expectancy in former middle class strongholds etc. Like above the 40 year old Reagan ET Al experiment seems to be a failure for the middle class, so it might be time to try something different.

Indigenous people

"obtaining the free, prior, and informed consent of indigenous people for all decisions that affect indigenous people and their traditional territories, honoring all treaties and agreements with indigenous people, and protecting and enforcing the sovereignty and landrights of indigenous people"


That is a no-brainer ........ QED

Health care, housing, security, clean air and water, healthy food and nature

"providing all people of the United States with — (i) high-quality health care; (ii) affordable, safe, and adequate housing; (iii) economic security; and (iv) access to clean water, clean air, healthy and affordable food, and nature"


An brainer, the US is the ONLY modernised country to use a dilapidated broken and very wasteful health care system. Works quite well for Wall Street profits, but not for the patients and people it is supposed to serve, It should be a NATIONAL SHAME that Cuba has a better health care system for all of its citizens than the US does ........ PS there is a reason US auto makers keep going belly up, and Japanese and German auto-makers do not.

Trade deals

"enacting and enforcing trade rules, procurement standards, and border adjustments with strong labor and environmental protections"


Yep, making trade deals that work better for average Americans OVER the limited desires of wall street probably is a VERY GOOD THING, for the long run health of the nation as a whole. It like doing the best for the most instead of giving the richest another government sponsored freebie......

This vote was a political ploy by yertle the turtle to create talking points for the 2020 election cycle. He didn't want any discussion about it, just record votes and then make campaign commercials about how people voted with NO actual understanding of what was being discussed.

This screwing of normal senate procedures has been done rather frequently by yertle the turtle , IE refusing to hold hearings or a vote for a constitutional nomination to the nations highest court.

Ending the 60 vote threshold for lifetime appointments so very partisan nominations could be approved by party line votes.

The members of the democratic party saw through yertle's typical hypocrisy and all but 4 voted present ......

The final vote was 57 against and no one for the plan, with 43 Democrats voting present.


a totally legal way to vote in congress, thus yertle gets his day but not his campaign commercial sewage for repubs to run on.

Nice to see how you spin it, but leave out so much of the info that is relevant.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 27 Mar 2019, 04:28:10

Cliff,

I’m strongly behind the idea we need to do as much as possible as fast as possible to address AGW, and other problems. I just don’t see any effective solutions in the GND, I actually see a lot of stuff that makes things worse.

I’m getting to be a s ratchet record on this but let me offer something different, hopefully better.

For the USA in particular our biggest problem is excess consumption. So I would start a program to educate folks on how much we waste and what it costs us personally and why it is a bad idea. As a country we need to change to a low impact lifestyle, reducing our purchasing, our travel, our heating and cooling bills, our frenetic searching for happiness in material goods. The path to lowering carbon is through careful management of our energy expenses.

Make the analogy to someone who has run up a big credit card debt. One way to get out is by saying “I’ll get a second or third job to pay it off. But I’ll be driving to and from work a lot so I need a reliable new car. I’ll take out a loan for the car”. The other way is to say “I’ve got to stop spending. I must: stop buying clothes, give up pay TV, eat in, read books, maybe walk to work, but generally learn to live within my means and find happiness there.”

There are a few infrastructure ideas I support. Upgrading our grid and converting to HVDC is one. Solar panels to cover parking lots is another. Upgrading our national data network and encouraging video conferencing over travel is a third. Generally making existing mass transport free to the public is a fourth.

I am very disheartened by the GND because it is not addressing the core issue that as a people we need to change our habits. It has grabbed the spotlight and moved the focus of discussion away from where it is needed. It will set us back years in making any real progress toward addressing climate change. It may have been well meaning but extreamly poorly handled.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 27 Mar 2019, 10:20:52

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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 27 Mar 2019, 11:01:27

jedrider wrote:On the topic of waste and excess consumption:

How we burn our plastic
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/malaysia-jenjarom-activists-plastic-recycling_n_5c99e86ce4b0d42ce3606110


There is a way to safely burn plastics and recover the heat energy but it costs money to do it properly which is why we ship our plastic “recyclables” overseas and turn a blind eye to what happens after but act shocked and surprised when it ends up the ocean.

Thermal oxidizers are typically used to destroy hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from industrial air streams . These pollutants are generally hydrocarbon based and when destroyed via thermal combustion they are chemically oxidized to form CO2 and H2O. Three main factors in designing the effective thermal oxidizers are temperature, residence time, and turbulence. The temperature needs to be high enough to ignite the waste gas. Most organic compounds ignite at the temperature between 590 °C (1,094 °F) and 650 °C (1,202 °F). To ensure near destruction of hazardous gases, most basic oxidizers are operated at much higher temperature levels. When catalyst is used, the operating temperature range may be lower. Residence time is to ensure that there is enough time for the combustion reaction to occur. The turbulence factor is the mixture of combustion air with the hazardous gases.
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 21

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 27 Mar 2019, 11:51:20

I would like to see all plastic bottles have a refund put on them. Simple to do. Would help a lot.

Also I would like to see many product come with a “disposal fee”. Let’s say recridgerator. $100. Redeemable at the proper disposal site. Mattress would be $50. Redeemable at disposal site. Cars $500. Redeemable at disposal site.
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