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Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby GHung » Thu 20 Dec 2018, 20:24:50

pstarr wrote:
GHung wrote:Farming in northern Canada currently isn't a big thing.

I beg to differ :x Alaska has some big (however butt-ugly) cabbages.
Image
"The work of Cabbage Fairies may have helped Steve Hubacek grow the giant cabbage winner at the 2014 Alaska State Fair."

It is a well-known, and oft-repeated fact that 24-hour sunlight can grow a very serious cabbage, known the world-over for it's incredible kraut.



Leafy green vegetables respond well to long photo-periods and cool weather. Maybe our offspring will be eating lots of sauerkraut, eh? I was just looking at the stats from Yukon and NW Territory. Not much going on there, large scale, agriculturally. Soil? Climate? Better places to farm I guess.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 20 Dec 2018, 20:46:58

GHung wrote:Farming in northern Canada currently isn't a big thing.

Yukon and the Northwest Territories agricultural trends

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/95- ... 10-eng.htm
................................

Oats are the leading crop

Just over one-quarter (25.9%) of all farms in Yukon and the Northwest Territories reported growing field crops. Field crop area increased by 5.4% from 2011 to 1,405 acres in 2016. Although the area seeded with oats declined 36.8% from 2011, it remained the largest field crop (647 acres) in Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Dried field peas increased from no acres in 2011 to 73 acres in 2016.
Total area of land in fruits, berries, and nuts doubles

The total area of land in fruits, berries and nuts increased 104.4% from 2011 to 64 acres in 2016. This area included 9 acres of Saskatoon berries and 7 acres of raspberries.

The greenhouse flower and vegetable production area declined 40.4% from 2011 to 42,043 square feet in 2016. The largest area under glass was dedicated to vegetables, followed by flowers.
Turkey inventory and turkey production increase

Turkey inventory in Yukon and the Northwest Territories increased by 43.1% from 2011 to 289 birds in 2016, with the number of farms reporting turkey inventory doubling to 12 farms.

Turkey production in Yukon and the Northwest Territories increased by 124.2% from 2010 to 5,174 kilograms in 2015. The number of farms reporting turkey production more than tripled to 16.

In terms of livestock, farms reporting cattle accounted for 8.9% of all farms in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, down from 9.4% in 2011. Farms reporting pigs accounted for 18.4% of all farms in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, up from 5.7% in 2011. The number of farms reporting some livestock increased 5.8% to 91.
Poultry and egg farms account for over two-fifths of gross farm receipts in Yukon and the Northwest Territories

Poultry and egg type farms in Yukon and the Northwest Territories generated $4.4 million in gross farm receipts in 2015, accounting for 44.2% of all gross farm receipts.

Overall, the agricultural sector in Yukon and the Northwest Territories generated $10.0 million in gross farm receipts while incurring $8.8 million in operating expenses. On average, for every dollar in sales, farms had 88 cents in expenses in 2015 for an expense-to-receipt ratio of 0.88. This ratio was 0.86 in 2010.

Statistics Canada would like to thank the farming community of Yukon and the Northwest Territories for their participation and assistance in the 2016 Census of Agriculture.
So out of half a million square miles in the NW territories they only grow oats on less then two square miles? (640 acres per square mile). That tells you a lot.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 20 Dec 2018, 20:56:09

onlooker wrote:We can talk just about fertile areas in the US or CO2 levels but the Science is pretty clear that warming will have an overall devastating impact on global agriculture. Beyond, the negative effects of destructive weather we have "The World Bank issued an unprecedented warning about the threat to global food supplies in a 2012 report, “Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided.” The Bank noted that the latest science was “much less optimistic” than what had been reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2007 Fourth Assessment report:

These results suggest instead a rapidly rising risk of crop yield reductions as the world warms. Large negative effects have been observed at high and extreme temperatures in several regions including India, Africa, the United States, and Australia. For example, significant nonlinear effects have been observed in the United States for local daily temperatures increasing to 29°C for corn and 30°C for soybeans. These new results and observations indicate a significant risk of high-temperature thresholds being crossed that could substantially undermine food security globally in a 4°C world."
And of course limitations of heat tolerance among many crops



https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 7207000871

 http://theyearsproject.com/ask-joe/will-climate-change-affect-agriculture-ability-feed-worlds-growing-population/


I don't find an abstract of a 2007 paper making predictions of much value compared to a 2018 study looking back at 30 years of data. Farmers are adaptable, food production continues to go up, despite whatever temperature rise the planet has had over the last 100 years and production will continue to go up, the 4C mean temperature rise is a fantasy, science fiction, hasn't happened, and won't happen in my opinion because the oceans have a 1000x the heat capacity of the atmosphere and will absorb increased atmospheric heat (as its doing now) preventing large mean temperature rise.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 08:44:23

So I write a detailed post about how AS THE CLIMATE WARMS CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE and what I get back is essentially, "nobody farms there its too cold".

The topic of this thread is GLOBAL WARMING for pity's sake!
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 10:16:11

Tanada wrote:So I write a detailed post about how AS THE CLIMATE WARMS CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE and what I get back is essentially, "nobody farms there its too cold".

The topic of this thread is GLOBAL WARMING for pity's sake!

We pointed out it is not just about temperature change. There are soil, water and length of daylight issues that can't be overcome.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby GHung » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 10:27:18

vtsnowedin wrote:
Tanada wrote:So I write a detailed post about how AS THE CLIMATE WARMS CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE and what I get back is essentially, "nobody farms there its too cold".

The topic of this thread is GLOBAL WARMING for pity's sake!

We pointed out it is not just about temperature change. There are soil, water and length of daylight issues that can't be overcome.


Water issues will be overcome. They'll just deplete their aquifers like they are doing in the plains states. Soil issues? Throw gigatons of fossil fuel based fertilizers at that problem. Length of daylight (photoperiod)? Genetically engineer new varieties that love long days.

See? Problems solved. :-D
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 10:47:21

Thanks, T, for spelling out your position more carefully.

Isn't there a big swath of waste now in the middle of your "Interior Plain Zone" where they have been surface strip mining tar sands?

I would also still like to see stats on soil depth and quality from those areas, not just a pretty colored map or two.

On your last point, I am not quite as optimistic that economics and demographics will drive a decrease in meat and dairy consumption. If we lived in a rational world, maybe, but we don't. Population has continued to grow over the last four decades, and malnourishment is still at around one billion people. But meat and dairy consumption continue to rise around the world.

If you're so sure the Yukon is the growth region for future farming, you should start investing in land up there. If not, one wonders why you hesitate to 'put your money where your mouth is.'
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby GHung » Fri 21 Dec 2018, 10:57:12

dohboi wrote:.........

If you're so sure the Yukon is the growth region for future farming, you should start investing in land up there. If not, one wonders why you hesitate to 'put your money where your mouth is.'


Heck, you don't have to invest (as in buy) farm land in the Yukon:

Canada's Yukon offers free land if you're willing to farm the north

TORONTO (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - In Canada’s far north, the government of Yukon Territory wants to attract small farmers to the frigid region with a simple pitch: free land.

And as global warming makes Canada’s northern regions more hospitable to agriculture by opening once frozen land to farming, the opportunities are growing.

Bordering on Alaska in northwestern Canada, the Yukon has given away nearly 8,000 acres (3,208 hectares) of farmland in the past decade, a senior government official told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. A dozen new applications are under consideration.

Now is a good time to start farming in the Yukon, say government officials.

“Our territory is expected to get wetter and warmer,” said Rod Jacob, a government official with the Department of Energy, Mines and Resources in the capital Whitehorse.

“We may see opportunity with an increased growing season,” Jacob told the Thomson Reuters Foundation in an email. .......
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cana ... SKBN1AA27M
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 10:16:50

Capitalism Killed Our Climate Momentum, Not “Human Nature”

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/03/cli ... -magazine/

...one could scarcely imagine a more inopportune moment in human evolution for our species to come face to face with the hard truth that the conveniences of modern consumer capitalism were steadily eroding the habitability of the planet. Why? Because the late ’80s was the absolute zenith of the neoliberal crusade, a moment of peak ideological ascendency for the economic and social project that deliberately set out to vilify collective action in the name of liberating “free markets” in every aspect of life.

...what at first seemed like our best shot at lifesaving climate action had in retrospect suffered from an epic case of historical bad timing. Because what becomes clear when you look back at this juncture is that just as governments were getting together to get serious about reining in the fossil fuel sector, the global neoliberal revolution went supernova, and that project of economic and social reengineering clashed with the imperatives of both climate science and corporate regulation at every turn.

...meeting the challenge of climate change would have required imposing stiff regulations on polluters while investing in the public sphere to transform how we power our lives, live in cities, and move ourselves around.

All of this was possible in the ’80s and ’90s (it still is today) — but it would have demanded a head-on battle with the project of neoliberalism, which at that very time was waging war on the very idea of the public sphere (“There is no such thing as society,” Thatcher told us). Meanwhile, the free trade deals being signed in this period were busily making many sensible climate initiatives — like subsidizing and offering preferential treatment to local green industry and refusing many polluting projects like fracking and oil pipelines — illegal under international trade law...

"We have not done the things that are necessary to lower emissions because those things fundamentally conflict with deregulated capitalism, the reigning ideology for the entire period we have been struggling to find a way out of this crisis. We are stuck because the actions that would give us the best chance of averting catastrophe — and would benefit the vast majority — are extremely threatening to an elite minority that has a stranglehold over our economy, our political process, and most of our major media outlets. That problem might not have been insurmountable had it presented itself at another point in our history. But it is our great collective misfortune that the scientific community made its decisive diagnosis of the climate threat at the precise moment when those elites were enjoying more unfettered political, cultural, and intellectual power than at any point since the 1920s. Indeed, governments and scientists began talking seriously about radical cuts to greenhouse gas emissions in 1988 — the exact year that marked the dawning of what came to be called “globalisation.”"

..."Beyond capitalism, *humankind* is fully capable of organizing societies to thrive within ecological limits.”

...But simply blaming capitalism isn’t enough. It is absolutely true that the drive for endless growth and profits stands squarely opposed to the imperative for a rapid transition off fossil fuels. It is absolutely true that the global unleashing of the unbound form of capitalism known as neoliberalism in the ’80s and ’90s has been the single greatest contributor to a disastrous global emission spike in recent decades, as well as the single greatest obstacle to science-based climate action ever since governments began meeting to talk (and talk and talk) about lowering emissions. And it remains the biggest obstacle today, even in countries that market themselves as climate leaders, like Canada and France.

But we have to be honest that autocratic industrial socialism has also been a disaster for the environment, as evidenced most dramatically by the fact that carbon emissions briefly plummeted when the economies of the former Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s. And as I wrote in “This Changes Everything,” Venezuela’s petro-populism has continued this toxic tradition into the present day, with disastrous results.

Let’s acknowledge this fact, while also pointing out that countries with a strong democratic socialist tradition — like Denmark, Sweden, and Uruguay — have some of the most visionary environmental policies in the world...
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 11:15:25

Overview of some of the beyond-extreme weather events this year, all very likely exacerbated by CC:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/20 ... a7bf5b4479
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Tue 01 Jan 2019, 16:51:51

dohboi wrote:Overview of some of the beyond-extreme weather events this year, all very likely exacerbated by CC:

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/20 ... a7bf5b4479


The trend towards increasing rates of such events and their increasing intensity is the new normal as we are in a climate transition regime driven by the persistent yearly increase in greenhouse gas loading of the atmosphere. All the variability kooks have to explain where this trend is coming from. They implicitly and explicitly claim that the current climate change is within the "norm". That is equivalent to the statement that we have equilibrated climate statistics. So no 5 sigma deviations with secular trends should be occurring.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 01 Jan 2019, 20:39:33

Good points, dis.

Meanwhile:

Climate Change in a Nutshell: The Gathering Storm

18 December 2018, by James Hansen

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/ ... tshell.pdf

In reality CO2 is not only continuing to increase, its rate of growth is increasing.

The reason is that global population and energy demands continue to increase, and about 85 percent of global energy is provided by fossil fuels.

A case has been made (Ice Melt, 2016) that the doubling time for ice sheet mass loss, assuming continued growth of fossil fuel emissions, may be as short as 10-20 years, based on evidence from the combination of paleoclimate data, modern observations, and ocean-atmosphere modeling.

In that case, multi-meter sea level rise would occur on a time scale of 50-150 years.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby dissident » Tue 01 Jan 2019, 22:03:52

That is the problem. We are now also resulting in accelerating release of CO2 and CH4 from soil reservoirs and changes in ocean chemistry due to warming. It is not just economy associated output, it is also anthropogenic driven natural reservoir destabilization.

But there is a reason why economy associated CO2 emissions would increase: the decreasing quality of fossil fuels and changes in the global transport. Ships can burn bitumen mixed with water. They burn a lot of low grade fuel and even this low grade fuel has gotten more expensive since increasingly heavier grades and now bitumen were being diverted to service the gasoline and diesel cracking industries. Ships may as well have returned to burning coal. The globalist economic model has also increased substantially the volume of heavy fuel burning transport shipping over the last 30 years.

During the last 30 years the global volume of car and truck traffic has increased as well due to development. There is no development without increasing CO2 outputs. The global GDP is tightly linked to CO2 output.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 08:40:45

dissident wrote:That is the problem. ....
.........

During the last 30 years the global volume of car and truck traffic has increased as well due to development. There is no development without increasing CO2 outputs. The global GDP is tightly linked to CO2 output.

While it is true that for the last century and a half GDP and CO2 outputs have been linked there is no reason they have to be in the future.
Over the time frame the cheapest way to increase GDP was to further exploit cheap and abundant fossil fuels so that was the route we chose. Future productivity will come more from intellectual endeavors and the search for alternatives to fossil fuel use.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 02 Jan 2019, 10:27:36

vtsnowedin wrote:While it is true that for the last century and a half GDP and CO2 outputs have been linked there is no reason they have to be in the future.


Tell that to Donald (bring back coal!) Trump.
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Nullschool

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 11:58:19

Just that Northern Mexico, Sonora freezes while them BC Kooteneys are melting in the middel of the winter, see nullschool surface wind/temp.
BC is above 50 degrees NL, minus 1 Celcius at 26 degrees NL, near the tropics, how unusual. RR ridge might be back.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 193,50.531
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Cog » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 13:18:40

There no EF-4 and above tornadoes reported in the USA in 2018.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 17:38:54

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:While it is true that for the last century and a half GDP and CO2 outputs have been linked there is no reason they have to be in the future.


Tell that to Donald (bring back coal!) Trump.
I put little or any stock to anything Trump says or does. Our economy and technology will advance in spite of anything he might do.
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby Fredrik » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 12:01:06

In Central/North Canada, or other boreal (coniferous forest) belt regions with nutrient-poor soils, one option is to practice slash-and-burn agriculture, where the ash functions as an effective fertilizer for a few years. In medieval times, temporary slash-and-burn sites often produced more crops than equal-size permanent fields fertilized with manure. Obviously this implies a highly mobile form of agriculture as you need new areas to burn until the depleted ones have regrown, as well as more C02 in the atmosphere...
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Changes Pt. 20

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 12:26:47

Fredrik wrote:In Central/North Canada, or other boreal (coniferous forest) belt regions with nutrient-poor soils, one option is to practice slash-and-burn agriculture, where the ash functions as an effective fertilizer for a few years. In medieval times, temporary slash-and-burn sites often produced more crops than equal-size permanent fields fertilized with manure. Obviously this implies a highly mobile form of agriculture as you need new areas to burn until the depleted ones have regrown, as well as more C02 in the atmosphere...

Considering the slow growth of Boreal forests you would be dealing with a fifty year long cycle meaning you could only have two percent of the land in crops in any given year.
Better to leave it as it is and harvest timber and game from it at sustainable levels.
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