[Doly]

Alternatively, as renewables themselves are built using fossil fuels, the renewables go up in cost as well as the underlying fossil fuels, and the entire thing, for all its claims of cheaper, still costs the consumer more.

The main factor in the cost of renewable installations isn't energy, and in any case, there is no reason why the energy needed couldn't be renewable.

So...cheap....to who? Those who can afford it? Or those who can't?

Renewables aren't cheap to the consumer. And certainly some consumers have trouble already with paying their electricity bills. But the solution doesn't have to be lowering electricity bills. Reducing electricity usage also works.

I have no expectations that claims of lower costs of renewables will be passed on to consumers. I just see it claimed, and you appear to be defending the idea that they are indeed cheaper, and I am wondering...cheaper for who?

I'm defending that renewables are cheaper than they used to be, and that means cheaper for the installers.

You appear to have angled towards renewables are indeed cheaper, I have been asking if you have examples we can discuss, because I am having difficulty finding them.

Some info about renewable power generation costs declining over time:

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRE ... DC605E0CCA

[AdamB]

So...cheap....to who? Those who can afford it? Or those who can't?

Renewables aren't cheap to the consumer. And certainly some consumers have trouble already with paying their electricity bills. But the solution doesn't have to be lowering electricity bills. Reducing electricity usage also works.

Reducing useage works...as long as the per unit cost to the consumer doesn't rise. In which case, they use less, and it costs just as much as before. Or even more.

It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

Changing energy types works well sometimes too. When I switched cage fuels from liquids to electrons, I noticed it in my budget. A little bit with the first one, a whole lot more with the 2nd. With my recent addition of an honest to god designed in the classic American luxury sedan days, and upon filling it up with liquids for the first time, I was stunned at the cost. Ridiculous what gas costs nowadays.

You appear to have angled towards renewables are indeed cheaper, I have been asking if you have examples we can discuss, because I am having difficulty finding them.

Some info about renewable power generation costs declining over time:

https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRE ... DC605E0CCA

I read the highlights. Here is a goody.

global weighted-average levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) from new capacity additions of onshore wind declined by 13%, compared to 2019. Over the same period, the LCOE of concentrating solar power (CSP) fell by 16%, that of offshore wind fell by 9% and that of utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) by 7%.

Notice how it doesn't mention that those savings ever arrive in the pockets of the poor schmucks who pay for it all? "Global weighted-average levelized cost" means....what....exactly...to the people who pay the bill?

[kublikhan]

Isn't one of the big claims of renewables is that electrical generation coming from renewables is less expensive, not more?

Not until recently. Renewables have long been more expensive than fossil fuels. That's why they needed subsidies. We were willing to pay these higher costs for climate change/pollution reasons, not because renewables were cheaper. It was not until some of the more recent rapid drops in the price of renewables that they have started to become competitive with FFs(ignoring the intermittency issue). Go back and look at the levelized cost of renewables from just a few years ago. Here's the report from 2017 showing solar still more expensive than natural gas:

Code: Select all

Plant Type LCOE
Gas CC     $59
Solar PV   $74

Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2017

Now the 2022 report has renewables just about coming out even with natural gas. But don't forget the time lag for plants to become operational. The data given this year is for power plants entering service 5 years from now in 2027:

Estimated capacity-weighted levelized cost of electricity for new resources entering service in 2027

Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2022

It is unrealistic to expect power plants that haven't even been built yet to set prices for electricity markets today. The renewable powerplants operating today were built back when costs were higher. And they make up a minority of the grid. Despite a large buildout of renewables the US grid is still predominately powered by FFs.

Further, the EIA warns that comparing non-dispatchable power sources like Solar PV and Wind to dispatchable power sources is problematic. They go into detailed reasons why this is so but don't expect your typical journalist to dig into the weeds like this when even the EIA doesn't give any kind of dollar value adjustment for dispatchable vs not-dispatchable. To be fair, their most recent report does make an effort to address this issue. They included a new category for Solar PV called "Solar Hybrid". That is Solar PV + 4 hours of battery storage. And surprise surprise, once you include the extra cost of the batteries solar is no longer cheaper and gas is the cheapest once again. Although a new solar hybrid installation is half the levelized cost of a new peaker plant.

Code: Select all

Plant Type   LCOE
Gas CC        $37
Solar Hybrid  $59
Gas Peaker   $124

In AEO2022, solar LCOE, on average, is lower than natural gas-fired combined-cycle (CC) LCOE in 2027. However, more CC generating capacity is installed than solar PV between 2025 and 2027. We project more CC capacity to be installed than solar PV capacity because the relative value of adding CC to the system is greater than for solar PV, which LCOE does not capture.

Levelized Costs of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2022

[Tanada]

German Power Hits a Fresh Record as Energy Crisis Heats Up

Benchmark German power prices rose to a record, with an ongoing heat wave and drought set to severely restrict one of Europe’s key waterways for shipping energy supplies.

The blistering summer heat is adding stress to Europe’s energy system while Russia limits exports of gas to the continent. That’s set to hit the finances of households and businesses across Europe, a crisis that will only intensify as energy demand rises during winter.

Almost every aspect of the power system is contributing to higher prices right now. The latest literal choke point is the Rhine River, which is set to become virtually impassable later this week, cutting supplies of coal to plants that are meant to run more to allow Europe to save its gas. While they can still get the fuel by road or rail transport, it’s more expensive to do so.

“Low water levels on the Rhine have reduced the ability of these coal power plants to receive sufficient coal to operate at optimum output,” analysts at AME Group wrote in a note.

Benchmark German power for next year rose as much as 3.2% to 420 euros a megawatt-hour on the European Energy Exchange. That’s more than five times the price a year ago.

The blistering heat and drought has also dried up rivers and reservoirs that power hydroelectric plants.

There’s really no end in sight for the dry conditions, according to Silje Eriksen Holmen, a hydrologist at Oslo-based energy technology company Volue. That’s because it’s not just this summer that’s been hot and dry, but a much longer period that has compounded the drought’s impact.

“The problem isn’t a dry July or a couple of weeks or months,” Eriksen Holmen said in an interview. “It’s been a really dry whole year.”

Wind power is also lower than average for this time of year in parts of Europe including Germany and the UK, two of the biggest producers. That leaves the system more reliant on fossil fuel plants.

At the same time more than half of France’s aging nuclear fleet is offline for maintenance, leaving the country dependent on imports from its neighbors.

LINK

[Newfie]

Yes, it seems Germany has really dug themselves a deep hole. Which is ironic as they were supposed to be developing this “green sustainable” energy system. I suppose they let their planning be too directed by voters sentiments.

This is the big failing if the CC crowd, their failure to educate people on the real scope of climate change and the need for deep systemic change. It is a very difficult task and one I attempted in a small community and I failed miserably. So maybe human intelligence is simply too limited to absorb information on an extended time frame problem. I don’t know.

We are supposed to travel to Bavaria for a week in October for my Wife’s 70th, to celebrate with her twin sister and extended family. I expect that will come off, but I would jot be terribly surprised if it didn’t. Maybe a 10% chance of being cancelled due to energy shortages.

Anyway, this crisis has been in the making for many years. Germany has been digging their green grave for a decade or so. That it occurred is hardly surprising, their energy plans had very little resilience and they, like the US, focused on building their way out instead of energy use reduction and nuclear.

The emergent question is … How will Germany react to this crisis? Will the embrace nuclear and efficiency? Or will they double down on failed strategies?

Time will tell but I am not optimistic.

[Doly]

Notice how it doesn't mention that those savings ever arrive in the pockets of the poor schmucks who pay for it all? "Global weighted-average levelized cost" means....what....exactly...to the people who pay the bill?

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is defined as the price at which the generated electricity should be sold for the system to break even at the end of its lifetime. Which, obviously, doesn't necessarily mean that the generated electricity does eventually get sold at that price. So it's true that the people who pay the bill may or may not see any lower prices. But then, why should people go around expecting lower electricity bill prices?

[Tanada]

Notice how it doesn't mention that those savings ever arrive in the pockets of the poor schmucks who pay for it all? "Global weighted-average levelized cost" means....what....exactly...to the people who pay the bill?

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is defined as the price at which the generated electricity should be sold for the system to break even at the end of its lifetime. Which, obviously, doesn't necessarily mean that the generated electricity does eventually get sold at that price. So it's true that the people who pay the bill may or may not see any lower prices. But then, why should people go around expecting lower electricity bill prices?

Gosh, I dunno, but maybe when people constantly hear about free sunshine and free wind as the drumbeat information they come to expect lower prices?

[JuanP]

But then, why should people go around expecting lower electricity bill prices?

Because it is a basic part of human nature to have unrealistic expectations. Unrealistic expectations obviously provided some evolutionary advantage to the species, if not the individual. Optimistic people breed more and as a consequence most people are optimists full of unrealistic expectations. Realistic expectations, on the other hand, are few and far between. It is a direct consequence of evolutionary selection.

[Doly]

Unrealistic expectations obviously provided some evolutionary advantage to the species, if not the individual. Optimistic people breed more and as a consequence most people are optimists full of unrealistic expectations. Realistic expectations, on the other hand, are few and far between. It is a direct consequence of evolutionary selection.

That's utter BS that you just concocted. The world is full of defensive pessimists such as myself. There are also lots of optimists. We both breed just fine. From a collective perspective, it's pretty clear why both types exist. Let's suppose a tribe finds something that looks similar enough to food they already eat, but different enough to arise suspicions that it may be in fact bad and maybe even poisonous. The optimists will eat it, the pessimists will refuse to eat it. If it's good for eating, the pessimists will also eat and be fed, after they see that the optimists are still just fine after eating. If it's bad, the optimists will have a bad belly ache and in the worst case scenario, some of them will die, but the pessimists will still be around (and saying "I told you so"), so the tribe as a whole will still do all right.

Problem is these days, the entire world has to do some serious shifting in expectations, after centuries of industrialization, capitalism and expansion. Expectations of continuous growth have become very seriously ingrained in the culture of most places. Lowering expectations sufficiently at a collective level is clearly damn hard. But I don't doubt it will eventually happen. It's happened before, after the fall of the Roman Empire.

[C8]

Regarding optimism and pessimism I think there is some age correlation in that young people tend to lean optimist and older folks pessimist. Young people can't really funtion well looking with dread to their future and older people tend to experience the reality of busted dreams. I always wonder how much my vision of the future is colored by my age and try to factor out bias but I am sure it is still there.

Of course many are optimist or pessimist their whole life.

[cephalotus]

Fast forward to April 2023...

All nuclear power plants have been shut down by now and this happend with no issues. Germany has still been a significant electricity exporter in 2022 both by kWh and by Euro.

No energy shortages during winter.

Energy prices still a bit high (but far from peak level), but this is beneficial to the energy transition. Most people change exactly nothing as long as energy is cheap.

Now hundreds of very large (20-200MWp) solar power plants are in planing pipeline, because no they produce cheaper than market prices.

Wind will take a few more additional years to take of. In 2027ff lots of new sites should be available with has been the limiting factor for onshore wind energy developemnt.

Also some Gigawatt of electrolyiss plants.

Natural gas import is much more diversived now (but more expensive). This has not happend voluntarly, but it happend anyway.

[mousepad]

No energy shortages during winter.

Yes. Thank God there's France, Poland and Bulgaria at the ready to crank up nuclear and coal for germany.
Da freut sich das grüne Herz. Es kann sich in Unschuld waschen.

[kublikhan]

All nuclear power plants have been shut down by now and this happend with no issues. Germany has still been a significant electricity exporter in 2022 both by kWh and by Euro. No energy shortages during winter.

I don't think it's quite that rosy. The government decided to funnel $300 billion in emergency funding to households and businesses just to keep the lights on. Not to mention the fact that Germany turned back to coal in it's hour of need.

Companies that require vast amounts of energy are scrambling to find ways to stay afloat. Not all are succeeding. According to a survey last month by the Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI), two-thirds of paper producers on the continent have cut their production, while just over half have temporarily closed. Paper-making needs a lot of energy 24/7 to evaporate large quantities of water. Hakle, a toilet paper manufacturer in Germany, blamed soaring energy and material costs for its insolvency last month. There is help at hand. The German government has so far promised to spend nearly €300 billion ($294 billion) to help millions of households and businesses cope as prices soar. As much as €200 billion ($196 billion) of that support could be funded by government borrowing. Such whopping sums have sparked criticism. Claude Turmes, Luxembourg’s energy minister, last week said the giveaways represented an “insane race” by governments to outspend one another.

“There’s a risk that essentially Germany subsidizing its glass industry will kill the Czech glass industry. If one country can essentially afford to outbid everybody else on the energy market, yes, it’s a problem.” Generous handouts may be causing problems with its EU partners, but Germany believes the heart of its giant economy is at stake. Some manufacturers are already moving parts of their operations abroad. Companies have relied on the steady flow of cheap gas from Russia since the 1990s to fuel their factories. That energy source is now “vanishing,” Zachmann said, pushing businesses to find alternate sources, or move energy-intensive activities to other countries. Prysmian has done just that. At the start of last year, Persson moved the gas-guzzling production of cable conductors from German factories to Hungary and the Czech Republic to save money. He has started to buy parts from Turkey, rather than make them in-house, to cut energy consumption. “[We are] trying to move away from Germany [for energy-intensive products] for the simple reason that it is very hard for us to sustain the production.” Similar pressures can be seen elsewhere in Europe. Germany’s BASF and Norway’s Yara International, two chemicals giants, have slashed their production of ammonia — a key ingredient in fertilizer — on the continent due to high gas prices. Yara International’s European ammonia production is running at just 35% of its capacity.

In Germany’s auto industry, there are early indications of a more permanent shift. According to a September survey, 85% of car makers view the country as an uncompetitive location because of high energy prices and insecure supply. Just 3% of companies said they plan to invest in the country, whereas 22% want to shift their investments abroad. “Energy-intensive branches [of industry] will relocate as energy prices will structurally stay on higher levels.”

Rocketing energy costs are savaging German industry

The supposedly evil energy source saves the day in Europe. Germany did itself and Europe a favor by managing to avert an energy-shortage recession this winter, and now we know how they did it: supposedly evil coal. Data released Thursday show coal’s role in electricity generation growing in Germany for the second year running.

Coal Keeps Germany’s Lights On

Germany is set to boost its reliance on coal as it battles an unprecedented energy crisis — even at the expense of its ambitious climate goals. Europe’s largest economy is burning the fossil fuel for electricity at the fastest pace in at least six years. Across the globe, highly polluting — and relatively cheap — coal is making a comeback as countries seek to prevent soaring energy costs from triggering an economic meltdown. Germany now generates more than a third of its electricity from coal-fired power plants.

“Coal is coming back as a baseload generator. We think it will be less seasonal than it has been – with more coal-burning in summer, spring and autumn, as long as coal remains so much in the money versus gas and there remains a gas shortage.” At times this month, German electricity became as polluting as power produced in South Africa and India, after lower wind speeds curbed renewable generation and coal consumption spiked.

Germany Revives Coal as Energy Security Trumps Climate Goals

[theluckycountry]

This is the big failing if the CC crowd, their failure to educate people on the real scope of climate change and the need for deep systemic change. It is a very difficult task and one I attempted in a small community and I failed miserably. So maybe human intelligence is simply too limited to absorb information on an extended time frame problem. I don’t know.

It's certainly not intelligence, no one is that stupid! It's simple denial due to selfish interests. If the windmills cost next to nothing and the electric cars were cheaper than the gas ones (and had a range of 1000 miles) then everyone would be on board, me included!

The only reason I have a roof full of solar is because the government paid half and the math told me they would be paid off in 4 years or less. Well that's 6 years now because they cut the export tariff by a third after two years and I run the A/C a lot more. Still a good deal though.

I'd have bought an EV by now too if they had been as good value as they marketed them, but they are not. Twenty years ago they sang the praises of renewable power generation and it ended up doubling the cost of power. Ten years ago they said that EV's were fantastic too.

The world is full of Lies.

[theluckycountry]

Problem is these days, the entire world has to do some serious shifting in expectations, after centuries of industrialization, capitalism and expansion.

Not the entire world, just the collapsing parts that have burnt through all their native energy. That's what this is really all about, the dominant West, the English, the Germans, the Americans, all trying to force an era of austerity on the rest of the world because they are now out in the cold energy wise. They want the rest of us to cut back just so they can have more.

Australia still has a half century of expansion left in it, Russia Too. We don't want to give up anything just to satisfy the dying empire.

[Newfie]

Lucky,
You have some interesting ideas that you are mighty sure of.

[kublikhan]

Australia still has a half century of expansion left in it, Russia Too. We don't want to give up anything just to satisfy the dying empire.

Yes you would rather give everything to your Chinese overlords. While relying on imports to keep you happy motoring. Sometimes I wonder where you get your delusional ideas from.

Almost all of Australia’s fuel supply is imported, leaving the country vulnerable to shortages. As the war in Ukraine puts the global fuel supply in sharp focus, the Australia Institute found that 91% of Australia’s fuel in the 2021 financial year was imported. According to the report, released on Thursday, Australia’s largest suppliers are Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and China. Part of the issue has been the decline in domestic production capacity. In a decade, Australia has gone from 20 operating oil refineries to two.

“Australia is an international laggard when it comes to fuel efficiency. Weak fuel standards and an absence of a national electric vehicle policy leave Australia among the least fuel-efficient fleets in the OECD, and far behind the rest of the world in electric vehicle uptake.” Merzian warned that supply for transport fuels is a national security problem. “High petrol prices are already hurting Australians.”

More than 90% of Australia’s fuel imported – leaving country vulnerable to shortages

[theluckycountry]

Lucky,
You have some interesting ideas that you are mighty sure of.

I wouldn't say "mighty sure" but it's a reasonable extrapolation of what we have left in the ground, our farming production and our population of 26 million. Of course anything can happen, we could be colonized by a tyrannical new empire that takes all the wealth while giving Australians' little part, sort of like what happened to African and the west pacific nations over the past couple of hundred years. Russia is loaded too, with a population of under 150 million but a land area of 1.7x the US.

Population is a big factor. Look at Norway, they have a lot of oil offshore and enjoy probably they best standard of living in the world, income-wise. Population? 5.5 million. All these 3 nations also have large tracts of their lands that are not really suitable for habitation, too cold, or too hot and dry as in Australia's case.

Within this vast landscape, Alaska hosts 15 national parks, preserves, monuments and national historical parks. Much of this land is protected as wilderness, and altogether these unique landscapes make up about 30 percent of the nation's wilderness areas.

It seems you have similar geography but it's off-limits for exploitation. Probably a good thing! Just not for the people alive today who'd like to share in the wealth up there.

[theluckycountry]

Yes you would rather give everything to your Chinese overlords. While relying on imports to keep you happy motoring. Sometimes I wonder where you get your delusional ideas from.

Almost all of Australia’s fuel supply is imported, leaving the country vulnerable to shortages.

As usual, you have a superficial grasp of reality. Australia exports mountains of crude, mostly too sulfurous for our remaining refineries. We have outsourced the business of refining to the asians. Sort of like how America has outsourced all it's once great manufacturing to your Chinese Overlords and the Mexicans. We never has a huge manufacturing base to lose, our small population never warranted it. What we did have, the manufacturing of two brands of car, GM and Ford, we thankfully binned some years back. The Japanese make far better autos than those two companies ever did and the national subsidies to keep them afloat were just a drag on the economy.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/674 ... crude-oil/

The two biggest drags on modern economies are military spending and Sickcare spending and we minimized both whereas you have military bases on every rock and your population is addicted to pharmaceuticals. If they can afford them?

Insulin is an essential treatment for millions of Americans with diabetes, but its cost has risen dramatically in the US over the years. The average price of insulin in the US is around $300 per vial, which is the highest in the world and nearly seven times higher than the next most expensive country, Japan

See. You're being raped!

They found that overall, the average US manufacturer price per standard unit across all insulins was $98.70, compared to $6.94 in Australia, $12.00 in Canada, and $7.52 in the UK

Location Location Location kublikhan. You just live in the wrong Location.

[kublikhan]

As usual, you have a superficial grasp of reality. Australia exports mountains of crude, mostly too sulfurous for our remaining refineries. We have outsourced the business of refining to the asians. Sort of like how America has outsourced all it's once great manufacturing to your Chinese Overlords and the Mexicans. We never has a huge manufacturing base to lose, our small population never warranted it. What we did have, the manufacturing of two brands of car, GM and Ford, we thankfully binned some years back. The Japanese make far better autos than those two companies ever did and the national subsidies to keep them afloat were just a drag on the economy.

And yet Australia is still a net importer of both crude oil and refined petroleum products, to the tune of nearly 5x as much imported as exported:

Code: Select all

Australia 2021:
Refined Petroleum Imports: $19.60 billion
Refined Petroleum Exports:  $0.82 billion
Crude Petroleum Imports:    $4.88 billion
Crude Petroleum Exports:    $4.38 billion

Refined Petroleum in Australia
Crude Petroleum in Australia

And instead of keeping all of that coal you have for your 'future expansion', you are instead digging it all up to give to the Chinese and others:

Code: Select all

Australian Coal
Coal Production  554,763,963 tons
Coal Exports     427,090,732 tons
Coal Consumption 129,642,679 tons

Australia Coal

Location Location Location kublikhan. You just live in the wrong Location.

You can keep your backwards mining colony I'm happy where I am thanks.