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+++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

+++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby M_B_S » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 04:01:00

Germanys Reserve down <20%

http://www.financeapprise.com/gazprom-i ... ning-year/
Gazprom produced almost 110 billion cubic meters of natural gas since the beginning of the year, according to data from the company. Compared to the same period of the previous year there is a rise of 2.2%, while exports are growing by 3.4% to 44.4 billion cubic meters.

Exports to the Netherlands increased by 114.2% and for Austria by 90.5%.

The reason for the increased supply is the cold wave in Europe, which has sharply increased demand for raw materials.

This has reduced the reserves in gas storage, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, showing that by March 13, Europe’s warehouses are filled to 23.15% of their capacity.

https://www.epochtimes.de/wirtschaft/de ... 76983.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rian-chill
https://www.platts.com/videos/2018/marc ... ces-031618
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/grow ... -xcjxrm5lf
https://agsi.gie.eu/#/
https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natu ... t-21548454
https://eadaily.com/en/news/2018/03/13/ ... 10-25-full

March 13th, 2018
16:45
Miller: European underground gas storage facilities are only 10-25% full


Gas reserves in European underground storage facilities are very scarce, about 25%, and in some countries the figure is critical – about 10%, Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller has announced today, on March 13, at a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry
Подробнее: https://eadaily.com/en/news/2018/03/13/ ... 10-25-full
**********************************

PEAK OIL GAS COAL URANIUM

=>
https://www.reuters.com/article/germany ... SL8N1QU5MF

MARCH 13, 2018 / 11:41 AM / 6 DAYS AGO
Germany's 2017 oil output fell 6 percent, gas down 8 percent


We told you so a loooong time ago.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 13:02:38

Thanks. Which represents an interesting POTENTIAL strategic move for Gazprom. Obviously this summer would be time to take advantage of low summer prices an refill storage. A plus for Gazprom despite lower prices: increased sales volume. But there's the negative: the EU draws that cheap NG from storage during the winter which keeps some level of restraint on the price Gazprom can charges especially if it's much colder then the average winter.

But what if Gazprom is willing to give up some of that off season revenue? For instance sell not much more this summer then active consumption. IOW allow much lower storage build up. So when winter rolls in (even if it's not colder then normal) demand goes up and quickly exceeds what's available in storage. At that point the Europeans either pay whatever price Gazprom dictates or they "freeze in the dark". And with Putin getting re-elected and perhaps feeling a tad upset with the various sanctions against his country perhaps he'll "suggest" Gazprom do just as described.

If such events were to unfold it would be interesting to see the response of the major EU producers of NG.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 15:12:44

Rockman

The propaganda chief at Russia Today made this glorious statement:

"Dear friends in the West: We don't respect you anymore!"
"Putin isn't our president, he is our Fuhrer!"

Are you sure that fiat money is good enough for Gazprom? They might just ask for our blood as well?
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 15:26:29

Yoshua wrote:Rockman

The propaganda chief at Russia Today made this glorious statement:

"Dear friends in the West: We don't respect you anymore!"
"Putin isn't our president, he is our Fuhrer!"

Are you sure that fiat money is good enough for Gazprom? They might just ask for our blood as well?

Let's pretend that, for example, the US can't export a HELL of a lot of NG via LNG tankers if they want to. Let's pretend like Russia is the only viable source for NG, since that sounds doomerish.

As usual, you lack credibility. Alternatives do exist, even if consumers may whine about the price a bit, because unlike the claims of the fast crash doomers, people can generally afford to pay a bit more for energy, even if they don't like doing so.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 18:33:54

Can those whirleys out in the North Sea make any heat?

... asking for a friend ...
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 03:23:56

Syrian war was about creating alternatives
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby GASMON » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 05:41:31

Complicated subject - especially here in the UK.

We (UK) were self sufficient years ago with North Sea gas, until Maggie Thatcher fell out with the coal miners and started "the dash for gas" building gas fired electricity generating plant, and reducing (eventually and recently annihilating) our domestic coal mining industry. This helped to deplete the North Sea gas fields quicker than anticipated.

Maggie also (rightly) stated that "We (UK) had never be dependent on Russia for energy supplies" All that was years ago and times etc have changed.

We do not (as yet) buy gas directly from Russia, but we have two interconnecting pipelines across to Europe, gas flows both ways dependent on various factors. I doubt any new contracts between the UK & Russia for gas (or anything else) soon as per recent developments.

There is still quite a bit in the North Sea, but it diminishes and "the best has gone". We import LNG from the USA, Qatar, Egypt etc. The USA is stable, but the others are politically risky.

The whirlies in the North Sea (and all around Britain) certainly do help, more and more year on year - but they don't provide base load. New nuclear planned here also, our nukes are getting old now.

These sites explain the UK's energy situation in real time. Note we import quite a bit of Electricity (nuclear generated) from France.

http://www.ukenergywatch.org/

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

http://grid.iamkate.com/

http://mip-prod-web.azurewebsites.net/P ... View/Index

As to the future - who knows ?

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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 08:10:35

@ GasMon

https://www.lngindustry.com/liquefactio ... ty-review/

Reuters are reporting that Britain has rebuffed calls from the gas industry for an urgent review of the country’s gas storage capacity after a cold snap this month triggered warnings of supply shortages and gas prices spiked to their highest in at least a decade.

Operators of gas storage sites, industries reliant on gas and developers of new storage projects have been asking for an inquiry since November, following the closure of the Rough site that provided 70% of Britain’s gas storage capacity.

They met officials from the department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) on 16 March but the government declined to open an inquiry, saying market forces would ensure there was enough gas.

The government says it is up to the market to determine whether it makes sense to invest in new gas storage and if there are any supply shortages, prices will rise sufficiently to attract more gas from elsewhere.

“There is still a level of complacency in the government that despite recent events the best course of action is to just accept these price shocks,” said Clive Moffatt of consultancy Moffatt Associates, who attended the meeting and represents several storage developers and industry associations.
******************

Interesting Times for EUROPE/UK

A look over the ocean to US

https://www.oilandgas360.com/weekly-gas ... -up-again/

In total, the EIA reports natural gas stocks fell by 93 Bcf last week, dropping from 1,625 Bcf to 1,532 Bcf. This is 31.9% below the 2,250 Bcf that was in storage at this point last year, and is 16.2% below the five-year average of 1,828 Bcf. This week’s storage draw was in line with expectations, as analysts predicted a draw of 97 Bcf.

Regional declines were concentrated in the East and Midwest region...

*************

The problem is the Jet stream anomaly triggered by massive north pole warming!

STAY WARM....
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 11:20:37

GASMON - Thanks...always good to hear from some boots on the ground. So no contracts for Russian NG. But: 44% of UK NG consumption comes from EU pipelines. And 35% of EU NG in its pipelines comes from Russia.

https://www.britishgas.co.uk/the-source ... -come-from

Competition will have EU NG going to the highest bidder. So how will the UK compete with the other EU NG consumers? Especially with the Brexit complication.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 12:40:15

I suppose there's always fracking to fall back on.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby GASMON » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 14:06:40

The figures change almost daily.

Most UK's imported gas by pipeline comes form Norway, and has done for many years. there will be some Russian Gas via the two inter-connectors - but the UK does not (as yet) purchase gas directly by pipeline from Russia. Interestingly a ship load of Russian LNG is due to arrive soon (according to MBS first post link below, news to me).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rian-chill

Yes we compete but always have. A shipload of LNG on the high seas is a tradeable entity untill it docks and offloads. Ships divert frequently (to the highest bidder). An increasingly risky situation to the UK I will admit. Last summer we were importing LNG to Milford Haven (Wales) gassifying it and sending it to Europe (for winter storage) via the UK gas transmission system and the inter-connectors. Doesn't make sense to me, probably does to the money men.

As to Brexit - who knows ?

As to fracking - we probably will need to soon.

As to UK energy self sufficiency - it could be done with wind and tidal barrages, more nuclear with a small but steady coal fired base load, and then use our dwindling gas reserves for domestic / industrial use only (NOT power generation), but the lunatics are running the asylum these days. It's all about CO2 these days (rightly or wrongly - I dunno !!)

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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 14:36:20

Quadrilla should be ready to fracture the first 2 UK shale wells in the coming months.
It will be interesting to see the results and - if favorable for development - how much resistance continues to be put forth against it.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 17:47:55

GASMON - I wonder if the UK has long term contracts for that Norwegian NG? Also the Brits have cosmetician from countries other then the EU:

"A tanker carrying liquefied natural gas from a sanctioned project in Russia’s Arctic has arrived in Boston Harbor, where it will be offloaded for American users. The giant tanker is carrying the first LNG exported by the Yamal facility, a $27 billion project whose majority owner is the Russian company Novatek. The Treasury Department issued sanctions aimed at weakening Russia’s energy sector in July 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea and backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. The sanctions forbid any financing for projects belonging to Novatek, Russia’s largest independent producer of natural gas. But the Treasury sanctions do not prohibit the purchase of natural gas that originated from Yamal, according to experts on U.S. sanctions who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak for the U.S. government."
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby dissident » Tue 20 Mar 2018, 23:37:43

The UK is all for spot pricing of natural gas and against long term contracts. Until, of course, it starts to hit them in the pocket book.

Youshua et al. shut the f*ck up and make up your retarded minds. Either buy Russian gas or don't. Instead of bitching 24/7 about the "threat".
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby GASMON » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 04:48:24

As far as I know the UK had very long term contracts to buy Norwegian gas - lots of it. How long those contracts are, when they run out / renew etc I do not know. Found this on the net - seems a contract was signed for some Russian gas a while ago. :o :o

https://uk.reuters.com/article/britain- ... 6120141003

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/nor ... o-uks-sse/

Also shale gas imports from the USA - a very interesting article.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... irst-time/

I've been retired from the gas industry nearly 10 years, and lots has / continues to change. Seems the UK's future will be a bit like "hanging onto a thread" - but that's our nature I suppose !!!!

Ah well, spring and summer is nearly here - we've got through another winter -JUST !!

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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 21 Mar 2018, 16:26:02

GASMON - Those long-term contracts can guarantee supplies. But with your background you know how future prices in such contracts are tied to benchmarks. The gas may be available but at what price? Any idea what that benchmark might be? And LNG might not be much of a safeguard: I recall Boston, during a bad cold snap, having to pay $21/mcf for spot LNG when pipeline gas at its city gate was going for $6.50/mcf.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 05:09:31

I don't know future contract prices (wish I did !!)- but it won't be going much cheaper (for the UK).

As to LNG, yes it's risky. When the Japanese Tsunami took out the Fukushima nuclear reactor (and caused others to be shut down) a few years ago several cargoes of LNG were diverted to Japan - they paid handsomely for them.

Going forward we are in the hands of the money men and good luck (or lack of it !!).

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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:10:43

Going forward we are in the hands of the money men and good luck (or lack of it !!).


Translation: The Lights are Going Off. The econoDunces will have defeated Peak Oil by turning off the lights. Brilliant.

Even Saudi Arabia cannot afford Russian Gas. They want to go broke putting up nuclear reactors they cannot afford either.

There will never be a Natural Gas Age. That Really Stupid Transportation Fuel will induce Mass Bankruptcy and the producers will be forced to accept currency debasers toilet paper.

Money = Diesel, The Shale "Oil" Scam aint got none.

coffeeguyzz: "Look at all the hydrocarbons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Show me the diesel and aviation fuel. coffeeguyzz aint got none.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:43:34

The natural gas age came, lasted fifty years, and has now matured. As to where it goes now one can only guess - there are still huge quantities of Natural Gas in the world - BUT !!!!!

I left school in 1969 and started in the UK Gas industry as an Engineering Technical Apprentice. Worked there till 2009 and took early retirement. I've seen it all (UK side). The rise of our North Sea oil & gas, building of the UK gas transmission system, conversion from manufactured to natural gas, huge low pressure cast iron to P.E.(plastic) pipe replacement, nationalisation, computerisation, privatisation, and god knows what else. A fantastic industry it has been to work in.

BUT as I have said, it's all changed, no more forward planning (10 years & more) - just profits for the big guys etc etc. Sad that no one will ever again see or do what I have done in this fantastic industry.

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Re: +++ GAS CRISIS in EUROPE +++

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 22 Mar 2018, 12:53:18

there are still huge quantities of Natural Gas in the world - BUT !!!!!


BUT, there is NO self funding diesel fuel so the UK is bankrupt and cannot keep the lights on no matter how much GAS is around because the gas producers don't want payment in a worthless shit WIND currency.

Without access to a type of crude oil --> Diesel

NOTHING IS POSSIBLE

Wind Currency: Worthless
Solar Currency: Worthless
Nuclear Curency: Worthless

EV's? Hahaha, can't even keep the lights on nevermind power EV's.
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
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