DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.
From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.
However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.
Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.
Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.
So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.
DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.
From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.
However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.
Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.
Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.
So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.
DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession.
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.
From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.
However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.
Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.
Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.
So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.
Yes. We will have a seneca cliff style collapse.
It is reflected in the insane money printing. This thing is going off the cliff.
DesuMaiden wrote: Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart.
DesuMaiden wrote: when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.
Plantagenet wrote:DesuMaiden wrote: Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart.
Another alternative is that the government (and the people who run it) are just incredibly incompetent.DesuMaiden wrote: when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.
Thats true enough. But plenty of money can also be made from just doing business as usual.
Personally, I doubt that the government is intentionally trying to make "things fall apart."
But clearly things are falling apart and clearly the government doesn't have a clue what to do about it.
As Napoleon famously said two hundred years ago.... 'Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.
A more modern version of this aphorism blames government stupidity...
Government Incompetence vs. Government stupidity....hmmmm.......Its probably both.....
Cheers!
DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?
DesuMaiden wrote:OutcastPhilosopher wrote:DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.
From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.
However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.
Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.
Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.
So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.
Yes. We will have a seneca cliff style collapse.
It is reflected in the insane money printing. This thing is going off the cliff.
Let me give you a quote for context.
"It may not be profitable to slow decline...simply put, more money can be made--more quickly--by accelerating decline, bankrupting the country, starving people, and selling off assets than by investing it in rebuilding under a new economic paradigm or by trying to soften the crash"
The above quote was from Michael Ruppert's book, Confronting Collapse. Let that sink in for you. I suspected this ,for many years, to be true. Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart. Also, when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.
Plantagenet wrote:DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?
You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.
However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.
AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.
Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?
I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.
CHEERS!
DesuMaiden wrote:Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill
DesuMaiden wrote:Plantagenet wrote:DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?
You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.
However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.
AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.
Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?
I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.
CHEERS!
Except there isn't any significant fields of oil left to discover. The world has been thoroughly explored and drilled for oil during the past 140 to 150 years. All of the big and easy-to-exploit fields have already been discovered. World oil discoveries peaked in 1962. That was 60 years ago. And during the past five to six decades, less and less oil was being discovered every passing year. To the point where during the past two to three decades, new oil discoveries have virtually gone down to zero. It is only axiomatic that oil extraction would have already peaked. So no new discoveries can make up for this decline rate.
And btw, mainstream media is going to lie about peak oil, as usual, such as giving fake news stories about how "oil demand will peak in 2030, and then decline due to the use of electric cars" (this is a good example of the mainstream media duping the masses). Or other nonsense such as "Germany generating all of its electricity from solar panels and wind turbines because they closed down their last coal mine" (another big lie). The mainstream media will continue to give the public false hope of techno salvation because they need to keep on selling bs to the masses. To keep Business As Usual running for as long as possible.
Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill, like Jordan Peterson or Daniel Yergin, or someone who believes in the mainstream media's lies of techno utopianism and endless economic growth. I wouldn't be surprised there are even shills spreading disinfo on this site.
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:DesuMaiden wrote:Plantagenet wrote:DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?
You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.
However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.
AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.
Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?
I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.
CHEERS!
Except there isn't any significant fields of oil left to discover. The world has been thoroughly explored and drilled for oil during the past 140 to 150 years. All of the big and easy-to-exploit fields have already been discovered. World oil discoveries peaked in 1962. That was 60 years ago. And during the past five to six decades, less and less oil was being discovered every passing year. To the point where during the past two to three decades, new oil discoveries have virtually gone down to zero. It is only axiomatic that oil extraction would have already peaked. So no new discoveries can make up for this decline rate.
And btw, mainstream media is going to lie about peak oil, as usual, such as giving fake news stories about how "oil demand will peak in 2030, and then decline due to the use of electric cars" (this is a good example of the mainstream media duping the masses). Or other nonsense such as "Germany generating all of its electricity from solar panels and wind turbines because they closed down their last coal mine" (another big lie). The mainstream media will continue to give the public false hope of techno salvation because they need to keep on selling bs to the masses. To keep Business As Usual running for as long as possible.
Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill, like Jordan Peterson or Daniel Yergin, or someone who believes in the mainstream media's lies of techno utopianism and endless economic growth. I wouldn't be surprised there are even shills spreading disinfo on this site.
Dude, you are one of the last intelligent people on this site.
In regards to the shills, there are plenty of them. I am seriously starting to think that they are being paid by the government or are literal agents paid to spam this board.
DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted.
DesuMaiden wrote:That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession.
DesuMaiden wrote: We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had.
DesuMaiden wrote:So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable.
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