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"Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 04 Sep 2020, 06:49:53

If I were you, regardless of affiliation, I would get ready for a final confrontation. I am not sure I would say Hot CW2 across the nation but DC might light up:

“Bipartisan” Washington Insiders Reveal Their Plan for Chaos if Trump Wins the Election”
https://unlimitedhangout.com/2020/09/in ... -election/

“A group of Democratic Party insiders and former Obama and Clinton era officials as well as a cadre of “Never Trump” neoconservative Republicans have spent the past few months conducting simulations and “war games” regarding different 2020 election “doomsday” scenarios. Per several media reports on the group, called the Transition Integrity Project (TIP), they justify these exercises as specifically preparing for a scenario where President Trump loses the 2020 election and refuses to leave office, potentially resulting in a constitutional crisis. However, according to TIP’s own documents, even their simulations involving a “clear win” for Trump in the upcoming election resulted in a constitutional crisis, as they predicted that the Biden campaign would make bold moves aimed at securing the presidency, regardless of the election result. This is particularly troubling given that TIP has considerable ties to the Obama administration, where Biden served as Vice President, as well as several groups that are adamantly pro-Biden in addition to the Biden campaign itself. Indeed, the fact that a group of openly pro-Biden Washington insiders and former government officials have gamed out scenarios for possible election outcomes and their aftermath, all of which either ended with Biden becoming president or a constitutional crisis, suggest that powerful forces influencing the Biden campaign are pushing the former Vice President to refuse to concede the election even if he loses. This, of course, gravely undercuts the TIP’s claim to be ensuring “integrity” in the presidential transition process and instead suggests that the group is openly planning on how to ensure that Trump leaves office regardless of the result or to manufacture the very constitutional crisis they claim to be preventing through their simulations.”
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby sparky » Sat 05 Sep 2020, 01:10:09

.
the concept of government debt would be shaken if there is doubt on who is the government
but the world is used to the US permanent crisis ,
as a rough estimate a six months kerfuffle about number won't matter
some interesting situation could occur such as the death of Justice Ginsburg ....before the election , or worst , just after

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-18/ ... e/12469234
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby JuanP » Tue 20 Oct 2020, 13:11:19

"With global recession looming, Russia looks strong"
https://www.awaragroup.com/blog/with-gl ... ks-strong/

"Now, whether this system will come crashing down or just slowly die as it trundles downhill will not matter all that much. It will eventually die either way. Most people would prefer the slow motion option, but only with the crash would a cure come. Whatever, it has become increasingly difficult to stave off the crash and this time around, the financial markets would take the real economy down with them big time."

This is from August 2019, but still an interesting article on Russia's economy and the global economy, too. Long story short, the Russian economy is in pretty good shape with very little debt of any type, a large sovereign fund, and good forex reserves. Russia is also the biggest country on Earth and has very large reserves of resources.

The Russians also enjoy the incredible advantage of not suffering population growth. The World Bank's Russian population change rate for 2018 was 0.0%.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 08:36:04

Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 10:44:15

DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.




Maybe Covid was brought on to slow oil demand?
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 11:00:24

DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.


Yes. We will have a seneca cliff style collapse.

It is reflected in the insane money printing. This thing is going off the cliff.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 11:32:31

Not a bad analysis at al, Desu, and welcome back! I don't know how things will play out, but I definitely agree that what you describe in your post is a very real possibility.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby aadbrd » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 13:39:02

DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession.


The recession was caused by the housing crisis.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 18:23:08

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.


Yes. We will have a seneca cliff style collapse.

It is reflected in the insane money printing. This thing is going off the cliff.

Let me give you a quote for context.

"It may not be profitable to slow decline...simply put, more money can be made--more quickly--by accelerating decline, bankrupting the country, starving people, and selling off assets than by investing it in rebuilding under a new economic paradigm or by trying to soften the crash"

The above quote was from Michael Ruppert's book, Confronting Collapse. Let that sink in for you. I suspected this ,for many years, to be true. Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart. Also, when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.
Last edited by DesuMaiden on Sun 14 Mar 2021, 20:22:49, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 19:05:28

DesuMaiden wrote: Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart.


Another alternative is that the government (and the people who run it) are just incredibly incompetent.

DesuMaiden wrote: when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.


Thats true enough. But plenty of money can also be made from just doing business as usual.

Personally, I doubt that the government is intentionally trying to make "things fall apart."

But clearly things are falling apart and clearly the government doesn't have a clue what to do about it.

As Napoleon famously said two hundred years ago.... 'Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

A more modern version of this aphorism blames government stupidity...

Government Incompetence vs. Government stupidity....hmmmm.......Its probably both.....

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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 20:39:16

Plantagenet wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart.


Another alternative is that the government (and the people who run it) are just incredibly incompetent.

DesuMaiden wrote: when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.


Thats true enough. But plenty of money can also be made from just doing business as usual.

Personally, I doubt that the government is intentionally trying to make "things fall apart."

But clearly things are falling apart and clearly the government doesn't have a clue what to do about it.

As Napoleon famously said two hundred years ago.... 'Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

A more modern version of this aphorism blames government stupidity...

Government Incompetence vs. Government stupidity....hmmmm.......Its probably both.....

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Cheers!

I never implied the government was part of any conspiracy. What I was saying was that they were trying to continue BAU (business as usual) for as long as possible. Of course, the decline rate of the extraction of a nonrenewable resource can happen well after half of the recoverable resource has been extracted. As what we are clearly seeing right now. What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 14 Mar 2021, 23:20:58

DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?


You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.

However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.

AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.

Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?

I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.

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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 06:51:46

A couple of points Desu
The peak is not necessarily at the midpoint, perhaps in a world without constraints where producers simply pumped with abandon but this ain't that.
And besides, no one has any idea where the midpoint is, won't know until it's all gone and we know the total
"Elites" could not have increased LTO if production had peaked—the definition of peak is the inability to increase

But,
Conventionally produced oil outside US LTO and Iraq has been essentially flat since 2005,
the period from 05-14 had the highest sustained oil prices ever, and only barely raised conventional supply
IOW, conventional oil then has been on a plateau for 15 years, the whole period PO.com has been around
There might be 5 or 7mmb/d of oil on the sidelines, but then there is always oil somewhere that is in political trouble.

I tend to agree with you though, LTO and now COVID could be "masking" the peak
Also the low price 2014-2020 due to LTO slowed investment and could cause a supply crimp next year
It could be that all the borrowing and LTO the last dozen years has "extended" the peak leading to a shark-fin curve

I'd not be surprised by a fairly rapid decline, I don't bet everything on it, but I do have it in mind.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 09:58:11

DesuMaiden wrote:
OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted. That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession. Briefly, in 2008, the price of oil spiked at 147 usd /barrel. Note that I use the term "extraction" rather than "production" because the former is what we actually do...extract oil; we don't "produce" oil.

From 2005 to 2010, conventional oil extraction reached a global peak, which prevented any further economic growth. Thus leading to a major recession in 2008. The peak of oil extraction is reached when about 1/2 of all of the recoverable oil has been extracted, and that was in 2005-2006.

However, the elites of the world didn't want oil extraction to enter a permanent decline in 2008-2009, so they ramped up the rate of oil extraction from 2010 onwards. So rather than let global oil extraction rates enter a natural decline once 1/2 of all recoverable oil has been used up, the elites wanted economic growth to continue. Thus, they ramped up the level of oil extraction from 2010 onwards to delay the inevtable decline in oil extraction. So global oil extraction ,from 2010 onwardly slightly grew for a few more years, until 2018 when the all-time peak of global oil extraction was reached.

Then Coronavirus struck in 2020 , leading to a 10% decrease in oil demand. And this decrease in oil demand --caused by covid-19 --is probably the only reason why we haven't felt oil shortages yet. Once the covid-19 pandemic is over, oil demand will go back to what it was in 2019 (before the pandemic), but this time the rate of oil extraction will enter a permanent decline. Thus, causing a massive shortage of oil supply because of the demand outstripping the supply.

Because the peak of global oil extraction was delayed by the elites, the rate of decline of oil extraction will be much greater than if they let it naturally decline when 1/2 of the recoverable oil was gone. We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had. At the very least. Meaning the rate of decline of oil extraction will be a very steep curve. Rather than a relatively slow decline of 2-3% per year if decline was to happen after 50-60% depletion, we will now have a rapid decline of 6 to 7% per year from after 80-85% depletion.

So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable. And due to the rapid decline rates, industrial civilization will rapidly collapse rather than slowly decay.


Yes. We will have a seneca cliff style collapse.

It is reflected in the insane money printing. This thing is going off the cliff.

Let me give you a quote for context.

"It may not be profitable to slow decline...simply put, more money can be made--more quickly--by accelerating decline, bankrupting the country, starving people, and selling off assets than by investing it in rebuilding under a new economic paradigm or by trying to soften the crash"

The above quote was from Michael Ruppert's book, Confronting Collapse. Let that sink in for you. I suspected this ,for many years, to be true. Given how the government vehemently denies peak oil, it seems like they are intentionally try to accelerate the rate at which things fall apart. Also, when you notice how everything is becoming increasingly more unsustainable--longer and more fragile supply chains, more and more imported and exported goods and services, globalization increasing, rather than decreasing, during the past couple of years--it is literally true that more money can be made from accelerating the decline.



Well, I am not sure if I completely agree with that because I believe the "System" operates in a feedback loop. Essentially, due to all of the liabilities and other matters, the money printing is going to go exponential because we have a financial system based on the equation: debt raised to the power of time. Nothing can keep up with this, which is why in hyperinflation you have people becoming quadrillionaires. Now will the "insiders" game the system and try to profit? Of course. In a declining energy environment, currency printing is going to accelerate. There is a correlation there.

The other thing that Ruppert doesn't go into, is that industrial society/financial system requires more and more complexity in order to keep us at the same place we are. This is why the longer supply chains, just in time services, etc. The "System" requires it to keep functioning.....until it cannot.

How to rebuild a new economic system? Ask yourself what would happen if the President, Federal Reserve Chairman, etc. came out on television and told everyone that Social Security was bankrupt and they would halt payments immediately. Can you imagine the outrage that people would have? The vast majority of people don't understand or comprehend the "System" at all because it has created vast dependency on it. When it fails, which it is going to, people are going to absolutely lose their minds.

You also have to take into account that all of the insiders "wealth" is tied up with the "System" also. They don't necessarily want a new system either because they are doing so much better than everyone else.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 13:24:35

Plantagenet wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?


You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.

However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.

AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.

Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?

I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.

CHEERS!

Except there isn't any significant fields of oil left to discover. The world has been thoroughly explored and drilled for oil during the past 140 to 150 years. All of the big and easy-to-exploit fields have already been discovered. World oil discoveries peaked in 1962. That was 60 years ago. And during the past five to six decades, less and less oil was being discovered every passing year. To the point where during the past two to three decades, new oil discoveries have virtually gone down to zero. It is only axiomatic that oil extraction would have already peaked. So no new discoveries can make up for this decline rate.

And btw, mainstream media is going to lie about peak oil, as usual, such as giving fake news stories about how "oil demand will peak in 2030, and then decline due to the use of electric cars" (this is a good example of the mainstream media duping the masses). Or other nonsense such as "Germany generating all of its electricity from solar panels and wind turbines because they closed down their last coal mine" (another big lie). The mainstream media will continue to give the public false hope of techno salvation because they need to keep on selling bs to the masses. To keep Business As Usual running for as long as possible.

Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill, like Jordan Peterson or Daniel Yergin, or someone who believes in the mainstream media's lies of techno utopianism and endless economic growth. I wouldn't be surprised there are even shills spreading disinfo on this site.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby aadbrd » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 13:30:31

DesuMaiden wrote:Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill


This kind of absolutist language just shuts down discussion before it can begin. Do you want to engage or just monologue?
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby OutcastPhilosopher » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 14:04:44

DesuMaiden wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?


You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.

However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.

AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.

Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?

I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.

CHEERS!

Except there isn't any significant fields of oil left to discover. The world has been thoroughly explored and drilled for oil during the past 140 to 150 years. All of the big and easy-to-exploit fields have already been discovered. World oil discoveries peaked in 1962. That was 60 years ago. And during the past five to six decades, less and less oil was being discovered every passing year. To the point where during the past two to three decades, new oil discoveries have virtually gone down to zero. It is only axiomatic that oil extraction would have already peaked. So no new discoveries can make up for this decline rate.

And btw, mainstream media is going to lie about peak oil, as usual, such as giving fake news stories about how "oil demand will peak in 2030, and then decline due to the use of electric cars" (this is a good example of the mainstream media duping the masses). Or other nonsense such as "Germany generating all of its electricity from solar panels and wind turbines because they closed down their last coal mine" (another big lie). The mainstream media will continue to give the public false hope of techno salvation because they need to keep on selling bs to the masses. To keep Business As Usual running for as long as possible.

Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill, like Jordan Peterson or Daniel Yergin, or someone who believes in the mainstream media's lies of techno utopianism and endless economic growth. I wouldn't be surprised there are even shills spreading disinfo on this site.


Dude, you are one of the last intelligent people on this site.

In regards to the shills, there are plenty of them. I am seriously starting to think that they are being paid by the government or are literal agents paid to spam this board.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 18:21:05

OutcastPhilosopher wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
DesuMaiden wrote: What I am basically saying is that don't expect a "slow decline". The fast crash may be highly probable. And btw, a 6 to 7% decline rate/year is an extremely fast decline rate. It could result in supply chains literally breaking down within a matter of years (due to lack of fuel). Thus, resulting in supermarkets going unstocked with food and other essential items. Gas stations running out of gas. The airline industry shutting down (due to lack of fuel). And how exactly can anyone prepare for such a SHTF scenario?


You are exactly right that a 6-7% decline rate in existing fields is extremely rapid and could potentially lead to a "Seneca cliff" collapse scenario.

However, IMHO, we'll see oil prices go up significantly before we get to the point of supply chains breaking down due to lack of fuel. In the past much higher oil prices have resulted in more oil exploration and development and more oil production. Eventually the oil shortages were replaced with oil gluts.

AND we might also see another cycle of global high oil prices followed by more oil production and an eventual global oil glut once again in the next few years.

Related questions for us here in the US is whether the Biden administration will actually follow through on their promises and ban fracking? Will they also ban new leases and drilling on federal lands? AND might they reverse themselves and turn to promoting oil production when oil prices go over $100/bbl again?

I'm very curious to see what actually happens over the next couple of years.

CHEERS!

Except there isn't any significant fields of oil left to discover. The world has been thoroughly explored and drilled for oil during the past 140 to 150 years. All of the big and easy-to-exploit fields have already been discovered. World oil discoveries peaked in 1962. That was 60 years ago. And during the past five to six decades, less and less oil was being discovered every passing year. To the point where during the past two to three decades, new oil discoveries have virtually gone down to zero. It is only axiomatic that oil extraction would have already peaked. So no new discoveries can make up for this decline rate.

And btw, mainstream media is going to lie about peak oil, as usual, such as giving fake news stories about how "oil demand will peak in 2030, and then decline due to the use of electric cars" (this is a good example of the mainstream media duping the masses). Or other nonsense such as "Germany generating all of its electricity from solar panels and wind turbines because they closed down their last coal mine" (another big lie). The mainstream media will continue to give the public false hope of techno salvation because they need to keep on selling bs to the masses. To keep Business As Usual running for as long as possible.

Anyone, who denies what I just said, is probably a shill, like Jordan Peterson or Daniel Yergin, or someone who believes in the mainstream media's lies of techno utopianism and endless economic growth. I wouldn't be surprised there are even shills spreading disinfo on this site.


Dude, you are one of the last intelligent people on this site.

In regards to the shills, there are plenty of them. I am seriously starting to think that they are being paid by the government or are literal agents paid to spam this board.

And yes, the disinfo agents need to keep the truth from leaking out by spreading disinformation. Every truth movement is gonna get infiltrated by government shills. And alot of the time, it is obvious when someone is spreading disinfo especially when you realize what they are saying is 100% false. And someone that knowledgable couldn't possibly believe in such nonsense.

Of course, to spread disinformation about peak oil is easy, given that most people are scientifically illiterate and have been brainwashed by techno utopians to unquestionably accept technological "solutions" to problems. I don't deny that technology has benefits, but every technology eventually gets corrupted. Usually by those with alot of money and power.

And btw, I been noticing certain things recently. Like how there are alot of electric cars on the street, and how they will solve everything ! (sarcasm). Actually, there are very few electric cars on the street, and I seriously doubt electric cars will completely replace ICE (internal combustion engine) cars. Like ever. Because of inheritant problems with battery technology and etc. And even if electric cars somehow completely replace ICE cars, that will only delay the inevitable collapse because electric cars are produced using yet more finite and nonrenewable resources. Replacing one unsustainable technology with another unsustainable technology will not work! Of course, the mainstream media is hyping up electric cars as the "savior" to industrial civilization because they gotta keep the party going. Even with false promises of salvation.
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby aadbrd » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 19:53:06

We're doomed. OK. Got it. Got anything else to contribute?
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Re: "Fast Crash" vs. "Slow Crash"?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 15 Mar 2021, 21:44:46

DesuMaiden wrote:Back in 2005-2006, about 1/2 of all recoverable oil was already extracted.


No. It wasn't.

DesuMaiden wrote:That was when the world experienced the first peak of global oil extraction, which lead to the 2008 to 2009 economic recession.


Global peak oil in 1979 lasted far longer than any of the peaks since then. And housing recessions aren't oil price based recessions.

DesuMaiden wrote: We probably already depleted around 80% of all recoverable oil this planet ever had.


Nope. You suck at these broad spectrum claims.

DesuMaiden wrote:So yes, ironically, by delaying the global peak of oil extraction by ramping up extraction rates, we lead to a much steeper decline rate when the decline became inevitable.


Colin Campbell published this same claim in 1989. For his global peak oil call in 1990. His claimed steeper decline led to a claimed average 2020 production rate of about 30 mmbbl/day. You sure you want to make the same claim 3 decades later when someone who actually knew something about oil couldn't make the claim work?
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