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EVs are just better!

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:33:09

dolanbaker wrote:You may be correct over there, but this side of the pond, EVs are being sold as quickly as they're available and the current models will satisfy 90% of motorists 95% of the time. The only issue is supply, so if some manufacturers were to have a programme of converting unwanted diesel vehicles to electric, there would be a ready market.

Certainly the auto market and related economics in much of Western Europe is different than in the US, given differences in driving distances required, gas taxes, public transport availability, etc.

I guess time will tell whether the new BEV market can ramp up fast enough over the next several years to (mostly) meet consumer demand, or whether there is a large enough shortfall in new BEV supply to make conversions from ICE's to BEV's a big business. IMO, too many quickly changing things re BEV's to make that easy to predict.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:15:58

I am one of several folks here who actually walk the walk, have had solar panels on my house roofs for two decades. I Have a sustainable home and live a sustainable livestyle.

I live an honest life and so have no need to convince myself of our collective goodness. If you do no good in your own life, do not expect the rest of us to carry your water. I can afford to be truthful about EV promises. EV's will never work. The important ride, the ones that fix your cheap homes, repair your shoddy roads, maintain your poorly built infrastructure will never ride on electricity. Diesel rules the real world . . . and diesel is running out.

Your food, your manufactured goods, and your toys will never ride on EV trucks, trains, ships or planes. You can drive to you white-collar paper-pushing jobs on EV's for a while. Until the diesel system breaks down.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:48:07

EVs in quarries
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPjRHkWzBI0
https://www.theb1m.com/article/volvo-cu ... est-quarry

Hydrogen fuel cells have come on in leaps and bounds in recent years as well, they could easily do the heavy lifting stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW7TFXwduYY&t
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:56:32

dolanbaker wrote:Hydrogen fuel cells have come on in leaps and bounds in recent years as well, they could easily do the heavy lifting stuff.

Now THERE'S an interesting idea I haven't noticed in the Fuel Cell vs. BEV debate. If Fuel Cells can do the heavy duty work, and BEV's can do the light duty distance work, that starts to sound like a good proportion of the solution for replacing FF's with electricity for much of the transpo network.

I'm pretty sure Toyota isn't continuing to pursue Fuel Cells, for example, because they hope to lose lots of money.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:59:27

Outcast, neither you nor anyone you even know owns an EV. EV's are basically a mirage. There is not one person on this web site who own an EV (except the guy who sells them) Like the so-called Trade War with China, EV's are a MSM gimmick to keep you believing in the Electric Tooth Fairy.

Diesel runs the world. And diesel is running out.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 03:14:34

pstarr wrote:There is not one person on this web site who own an EV (except the guy who sells them)


You're referring to Baha with his new Model 3? He sells EVs?
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 07:23:54

I'll let you know if I have one for sale :)

pstarr wrote:The important ride, the ones that fix your cheap homes, repair your shoddy roads, maintain your poorly built infrastructure will never ride on electricity. Diesel rules the real world . . . and diesel is running out.


This is called back peddling. EVs have worked. The Model 3 is the best selling luxury sedan in the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/08/teslas- ... in-us.html Europe is even more focussed on adopting EVs. Tesla hasn't even tapped that market yet. It starts this spring.

Pstarr has accepted EVs for personal transport and turned his scorn on E Trucks. (ETs?). 5 years from now it will be E Planes. He is keeping up with the times in his own way :) Careful Pstarr, you might get hit by an E Train!

I think DB is right. Once this snowball starts rolling things are going to change a lot faster than people think. In 10 years EVs will have the majority of sales. In 20 ICE vehicles will be gone. This is transformative technology...Is there still a Blackberry?

She has almost 2000 miles on it. At this point I would be thinking about changing the oil for the first time...Oh, nevermind :)

BTW - I explored the car with a magnet. The quarter panels and cockpit are steel. The front and rear hoods and the doors are all aluminum. That could explain the alignment problems. The door is noticeably lightweight. You have to give a good shove to close it. It has very little momentum. You would think it feels cheap but it's just different.
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The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 10:45:01

There was a piece in Wired magazine lately that documented the production-hell at Tesla in unprecedented level of detail. Elon Musk thinks he's just being aggressive but his approach is ultimately a form of mismanagement. Engineers tend not to make good managers because they're more interested in solving problems than operations. They have trouble adopting an if it ain't broke, don't fix it approach. The end result is a lot of trial and error that is great when you have an unlimited R&D budget but not when you have to just go pencils down and ship lots of quality and reliable finished product. I think industry people realize this but Musk doesn't and this is part of why he can't retain C-level talent. So instead he just tries to run the floor himself but he's just out of his element in a lot of areas as nobody is an expert in everything.

A lot of the design considerations of the Model 3 are really not relevant at its current pricepoint. They probably could have gotten by with an all aluminum body like the Model S if that's so much of an issue. Same deal with making it a sedan vs. a small SUV. They did all this to be able to sell it at $35K and it didn't pan out so they just punted the base car indefinitely. In the short-run it hasn't shown up on the balance-sheets but he pissed off a lot of first-day reservists and the market for more of an upscale vehicle has limits.

When I look at the big picture I really think VW has a better shot than Tesla long-term. The current VW is pretty far removed from the Dieselgate scandal. All of the people involved have been purged. And it scarred them enough to want to push towards EVs as a rebranding effort. They have expertise in operating at scale where Tesla lacks. The only thing they need to prove is that they can source enough batteries.
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 13:21:02

The article above is a perfect description of working at a Silicon Valley startup company. The only wierd thing: Tesla is far too old to be considered a startup.
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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 16:38:37

Burning fossil fuels to produce electricity and burning fossil fuels to produce all the machines that use electricity...will save us from using fossil fuels?

Sure...sounds like a good idea.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby jawagord » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 19:47:56

asg70 wrote:There was a piece in Wired magazine lately that documented the production-hell at Tesla in unprecedented level of detail. Elon Musk thinks he's just being aggressive but his approach is ultimately a form of mismanagement. Engineers tend not to make good managers because they're more interested in solving problems than operations. They have trouble adopting an if it ain't broke, don't fix it approach. The end result is a lot of trial and error that is great when you have an unlimited R&D budget but not when you have to just go pencils down and ship lots of quality and reliable finished product. I think industry people realize this but Musk doesn't and this is part of why he can't retain C-level talent. So instead he just tries to run the floor himself but he's just out of his element in a lot of areas as nobody is an expert in everything.


Maybe he didn't hire the right engineers?

Manufacturing Engineering

An industrial production expert, the manufacturing engineer researches and develops ways of designing, building, and shipping products on time and within budget.

A manufacturing engineer determines the best ways to use machinery to maximise efficiency – keeping costs down and increasing company profits. When new machinery is required it’s the manufacturing engineer who researches the current technology and techniques to make sure that the most appropriate equipment is purchased and it is integrated in the most efficient way possible.


https://www.engineering.unsw.edu.au/mec ... gineers-do
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 00:07:19

jawagord wrote:Maybe he didn't hire the right engineers?


Maybe for some of them but he poached a lot of good people from other companies including a manufacturing guy from Audi. The problem is once they started at Tesla Musk told them not to follow standard procedures and to do untested moonshot type stuff like "alien dreadnought" which turned out to be a cluster-F. That's part of the reason for all of the turnover. When you bring someone in they are going to expect to apply what they've learned, not tell them to throw out the rulebook. It sounds sexy and disruptive but there's a reason there's a rulebook and if you're going to deviate from it you have to make a damn good argument, one which Musk didn't make.
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 00:21:37

Yoshua wrote:Burning fossil fuels to produce electricity and burning fossil fuels to produce all the machines that use electricity...will save us from using fossil fuels?

Sure...sounds like a good idea.

So in your world, solar cells, wind, wave, geothermal, etc. is fossil fuels?

Well, that's as credible as your economic theories and claims -- i.e. not at all.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 01:08:08

A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel...and the infrastructure...and the machines that consume electricity...and the batteries.

And they don't work at night and during winter...or on a cloudy day.

Good luck!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby careinke » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 03:47:29

Yoshua wrote:A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel....


No, but ten will, and they will do it over and over and over.....
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 04:34:42

Yoshua wrote:A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel...and the infrastructure...and the machines that consume electricity...and the batteries.

And they don't work at night and during winter...or on a cloudy day.

Good luck!

Re intermittency, as if batteries didn't exist. As if Musk isn't demonstrating good battery backup power at commercial scale (it seems to me he's better at this than making and servicing quality cars) You're living in the past.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 06:44:36

In a future world, with 10 percent of today's population, located around hydro power stations, an electric civilization might flourish.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 08:16:03

Have you moved to a dam yet?
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 09:48:12

Yoshua wrote:A solar panel won't even produce enough energy to produce another solar panel...and the infrastructure...and the machines that consume electricity...and the batteries.
And they don't work at night and during winter...or on a cloudy day.


The Koch brothers thank you and other similar doomers for furthering the cause of FUD.
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Jan 2019, 13:12:48

This is not a Republican or Democrat issue asg70. I doubt the Koch brothers have a clue either way about EV's.
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