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EVs are just better!

How to save energy through both societal and individual actions.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Arthur75 » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 12:04:45

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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 13:12:19

Arthur75 wrote:Fake or real ? :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUzhBkCrf-c


Real. Old habits and blondes.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 13:30:48

"This is a real improvement and you will see other manufacturers following."

I hope to god no. I prefer a real dashboard or HUD.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 21:13:51

Will asg70 tell us why EV's depreciate so rapidly?

Who wants to own anything now that depreciates?

baha traded $60000 Oil Money for a lump of Lithium. Its like a Caveman trading wood and meat for a lump of shiny rocks. Lithium isn't good ponzi, its a money pit of increasing costs.

Lithium is useful for treating certain kinds of Brain Disorders.

Soon, Model 3 owners will look in the mirror and "I've got a Brain Disorder. Thats all my lithium car is good for".
Diesel, so they say, is the root of all evil today.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 03 Jan 2019, 22:08:26

StarvingLion wrote:Will asg70 tell us why EV's depreciate so rapidly?

Who wants to own anything now that depreciates?

baha traded $60000 Oil Money for a lump of Lithium. Its like a Caveman trading wood and meat for a lump of shiny rocks. Lithium isn't good ponzi, its a money pit of increasing costs.

Lithium is useful for treating certain kinds of Brain Disorders.

Soon, Model 3 owners will look in the mirror and "I've got a Brain Disorder. Thats all my lithium car is good for".

Pretty funny! Chucklemania!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 09:36:03

StarvingLion wrote:Lithium is useful for treating certain kinds of Brain Disorders.


You'd know a lot about that, wouldn't you?
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 12:37:43

Look, Baha started this thread to relate his experiences with a Tesla Model 3. That is the thread topic. I at least am very interested in the thread topic, and I would appreciate it if the rest of you would restrain from attacking his choice in transportation. I would also ask you to knock off the Ad Hominems, which are against the Forum rules.

Early adopter experiences are often non-typical of a product. The Model 3 also costs about twice what it should cost, but then, so does every ICE vehicle that interests me. The real reason for that is that money is worth a lot less than it should be worth. The main cause of that is expensive FF energy, crippling the economy.

Baha is also an Early Adopter of a Tesla Powerwall and is building a homestead capable of off-grid operation. He has the courage to look at the troubles ahead and a plan to better his future life and increase his comforts.

Baha, the only advice I would give is not technical but financial at this point. Pay off the car loan, pay off the Powerwall, in fact pay off every debt you have, and avoid debt in the future.

As they say, the time is near. None of us will ever be better off financially than we are today, unless we are already billionaires - and even their run is limited.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 04 Jan 2019, 16:58:36

asg70 wrote:"This is a real improvement and you will see other manufacturers following."

I hope to god no. I prefer a real dashboard or HUD.

I keep thinking regulators should do something about this. If distracted driving is a thing, and regulators are worried about accidents from texting, etc., why in the world isn't the Model 3 interface an obvious distracted driving mess?

(Given the teens who keep running into the back of my car while I'm sitting at a traffic light, and then leap out while texting -- in my experience, it most certainly is "a thing".)

But I suppose this is just what to expect from the same company that keeps claiming full self driving cars just around the corner, even though their real world offering (Autopilot) is good at crashing into various stationary objects (including brightly colored large ones) at full speed.

I guess the regulators are too busy being ineffective at regulating other things, and wanting far more regulations to make things "better", to actually deal with a blatant problem.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 07:49:53

Thanks OS, Sometimes I get annoyed with Ad-homs but then I remember...it's just words from the web. Even though there are no facts involved, you learn something about the people saying it :)

The screen is no more distracting than trying to find the right button for the defrost. I like simple. My van has more buttons on the steering wheel than my antique VW has in the whole car. Complexity isn't really necessary. Simple is better!

I don't think self driving cars will happen for several decades if ever. I can guarantee there are more crashes due to stupid people than due to stupid robots. We will never be released from our personal responsibility. In that case I think I'll drive myself.

Yes, we plan to pay this off as fast as possible. I am more uptight about the debt than I am about the future of EVs. I really do plan to keep this car forever. My VW beetle is 55 years old :) I've owned it for 22 years and rebuilt it twice.

I think I am a doomer. But instead of trying to warn everyone I'm trying to prevent it. I have a meeting this morning with a local Climate Action group. Afterwards we are settings goals for implementation of the NC Clean Path 2025. I have discovered that if you attend these meetings and get involved in the process you have a much greater influence over our future path. I get to help determine priorities, instead of just voting yes or no.

There are responsible people out there trying to make things better. And we will. Just give me a little more time.

SL - I have a plethora of brain disorders. I hope that Lithium will do me some good :)
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 16:21:27

baha wrote:SL - I have a plethora of brain disorders. I hope that Lithium will do me some good :)


But then according to Plant the EMF radiation will give you cancer, so there you go. BEV FUD...confirmed.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 05 Jan 2019, 18:29:22

baha wrote:Thanks OS, Sometimes I get annoyed with Ad-homs but then I remember...it's just words from the web. Even though there are no facts involved, you learn something about the people saying it :)

The screen is no more distracting than trying to find the right button for the defrost. I like simple. My van has more buttons on the steering wheel than my antique VW has in the whole car. Complexity isn't really necessary. Simple is better!

I don't think self driving cars will happen for several decades if ever. I can guarantee there are more crashes due to stupid people than due to stupid robots. We will never be released from our personal responsibility. In that case I think I'll drive myself.

Yes, we plan to pay this off as fast as possible. I am more uptight about the debt than I am about the future of EVs. I really do plan to keep this car forever. My VW beetle is 55 years old :) I've owned it for 22 years and rebuilt it twice.

I think I am a doomer. But instead of trying to warn everyone I'm trying to prevent it. I have a meeting this morning with a local Climate Action group. Afterwards we are settings goals for implementation of the NC Clean Path 2025. I have discovered that if you attend these meetings and get involved in the process you have a much greater influence over our future path. I get to help determine priorities, instead of just voting yes or no.

There are responsible people out there trying to make things better. And we will. Just give me a little more time.

SL - I have a plethora of brain disorders. I hope that Lithium will do me some good :)


I have a meeting this morning with a local Climate Action group


baha, what you are doing is no different than this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoples_Temple

Musk is Jim Jones. The climate crap/solar is the jungle. The EV is the mudhut.

You are in denial because you know you will have to die fighting for oil thats in the ocean. It aint fun swimming with the fishes but TINA.
Diesel, so they say, is the root of all evil today.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 22:51:34

StarvingLion wrote:baha, what you are doing is no different than this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoples_Temple

Musk is Jim Jones. The climate crap/solar is the jungle. The EV is the mudhut.

You are in denial because you know you will have to die fighting for oil thats in the ocean. It aint fun swimming with the fishes but TINA.

And what you do in a good 99% of your posts here is rave like a lunatic, with nothing other than random doomer FUD to back you up.

Be SURE and get back to us when oil is so scarce it's more than $200 a barrel in 2018 dollars for over a year (sustained price, not a panic spike), much less that people have to DIE fighting for the odd tank of gasoline or Diesel.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 23:00:09

Hey outy, be SURE and get back to us Dec. 31 2019 when oil production < Jan. 1 2019 oil production. And you have to make good on the $1,000 bet you are afraid to make lol
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 17:55:43

If the transition to EVs continue to escalate at the current rate, we could soon end up with a situation where the price of secondhand ICE cars falls through the floor. This might be a great opportunity for EV converters to buy cheap and relatively new vehicles to convert to Electric, assuming the supply of motors, batteries & controllers etc can keep up with demand. There could be an entire industry created just by converting recent models to electric.

With ICE vehicles currently having over 98% of the market, anyone in the EV conversion business will have reliable work for at least 10 years, until the supply of modern ICE vehicles start to dry up.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 21:12:05

Pick which of the following 3 is NOT Money.

Caveman FireMaterial------------->Poor Peoples Kerosene----------------->Lithium Battery

Today, Diesel Fuel is money. Ford just put a diesel in the F-150? Why, because it is money. DEF is replacing interest rate charges. Diesel trucks will appreciate in value. If you don't own a Diesel truck with 11000 pounds of towing YOU ARE DEAD MEAT. That truck will cost $300000 in 5 years. Its money and you'll never have one. HAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHa

Lithium Cars are a swindle trading money with totally bogus collateral chains to get oil money with good collateral.

EV's and Solar Panels are 21'st century Jonestown. You are drinking the koolaid.
Diesel, so they say, is the root of all evil today.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 03:35:28

Battery costs require economy of scale which the conversion business doesn't offer. Sure, if you want to make a stone-age lead sled out of an old VW bug you can do it on the cheap, but a car with decent range and apppointments will cost more to convert than it would to just buy an entry-level new EV. Lastly, gas cars simply aren't designed to accomodate battery packs. They're too heavy and you wind up having to lose cargo or even passenger space to cram them in.

The embodied energy wrapped up in cars and trucks with dead-man-walking powerplants is a tragedy, no doubt about it. I just don't see fleets of heavy-ass F-150 truck conversions anytime soon. Not without something like dirt-cheap ultracapacitors or something.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 12:39:51

dolanbaker wrote:If the transition to EVs continue to escalate at the current rate, we could soon end up with a situation where the price of secondhand ICE cars falls through the floor.

The vast majority of people need and/or want cars. The price of ICE vehicles won't fall much, unless the demand for them falls sharply. That won't happen unless alternatives like BEV's are either significantly cheaper, significantly better, or some combination of both.

So I strongly disagree with "soon" if you mean in the next 5 years (and probably more like the next 10 or 15). And it's not like there will be a large proportion of used BEV's for at least a decade to flood the second hand market -- at any price, since there just won't be that many compared to the ICE fleet.

Now, if instead of pure ICE, you mean people switching to more hybrids, given the mileage difference from the newest technology, and not giving up space, I'm surprised that hasn't been happening more already. Perhaps it will also take higher gasoline prices to wake people up the the fact that 45ish mpg in the city is MUCH more desirable than 20ish mpg in the city. That would be more of a "thing" with new cars though. So far, car dealers aren't pushing them or even making very many available on lots, generally. So that gives buyers less leverage to dicker, making them relatively more expensive compared to ICE's, and gives buyers little choice as to options, color, etc. compared to ICE's. So unless dealers want to move even hybrids, I don't think your "soon" prediction is realistic.

One thing that could change this over time is solid state battery technology, greatly increasing the weight and increasing the power density of batteries, while lowering their cost meaningfully. But from what I read, that is still years away from even potentially being practical at the scale of a BEV, and we don't know if it will ever be a commercial success.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 12:46:12

asg70 wrote:Battery costs require economy of scale which the conversion business doesn't offer. Sure, if you want to make a stone-age lead sled out of an old VW bug you can do it on the cheap, but a car with decent range and apppointments will cost more to convert than it would to just buy an entry-level new EV. Lastly, gas cars simply aren't designed to accomodate battery packs. They're too heavy and you wind up having to lose cargo or even passenger space to cram them in.

The embodied energy wrapped up in cars and trucks with dead-man-walking powerplants is a tragedy, no doubt about it. I just don't see fleets of heavy-ass F-150 truck conversions anytime soon. Not without something like dirt-cheap ultracapacitors or something.

Plus you have the same issues overall, with Tesla today (especially outside of Southern CA and a relative handful of big cities). The middle class wants confidence in their cars via reliability, serviceability, cost predictability, etc. I just don't see that happening from Joe's EV conversion for cheap shop.

Hell, given the expense and relative reliability issues with something as simple as a significant transmission repair or replacement -- it's often better to just sell and old car for what you can get than to fool with the transmission -- unless you don't mind issues with reliability and durability compared to a car without transmission issues.

Will some people do ICE to BEV conversions? Sure. Hobbyists. Mechanics. Engineers. Adventurous car gusys. Will it become anything remotely mainstream? I just don't see it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 14:17:31

At some point after the Oil Peak, operating a BEV will be very much cheaper than an ICE vehicle. Only then will BEVs become mainstream, and then will gasoline and diesel fuel distribution start a decades-long decline.

How desireable is your ICE vehicle when the nearest fuel distribution is 50+ miles from your home? It is the reverse of the situation today, when EV chargers are relatively few and far between. However, remember that BEVs can also be trickle-charged from the grid at your home, and have full range the next morning.

Again, most of you are expecting the ICE-to-EV crossover to be a sudden event. This transition will take decades, and in the 3rd or 4th decade, ICE vehicles will beome non-viable, when the average distance to the nearest fuel distribution takes a significant portion of a tank of fuel to access.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:03:34

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:If the transition to EVs continue to escalate at the current rate, we could soon end up with a situation where the price of secondhand ICE cars falls through the floor.

The vast majority of people need and/or want cars. The price of ICE vehicles won't fall much, unless the demand for them falls sharply. That won't happen unless alternatives like BEV's are either significantly cheaper, significantly better, or some combination of both.

So I strongly disagree with "soon" if you mean in the next 5 years (and probably more like the next 10 or 15). And it's not like there will be a large proportion of used BEV's for at least a decade to flood the second hand market -- at any price, since there just won't be that many compared to the ICE fleet.

Now, if instead of pure ICE, you mean people switching to more hybrids, given the mileage difference from the newest technology, and not giving up space, I'm surprised that hasn't been happening more already. Perhaps it will also take higher gasoline prices to wake people up the the fact that 45ish mpg in the city is MUCH more desirable than 20ish mpg in the city. That would be more of a "thing" with new cars though. So far, car dealers aren't pushing them or even making very many available on lots, generally. So that gives buyers less leverage to dicker, making them relatively more expensive compared to ICE's, and gives buyers little choice as to options, colour, etc. compared to ICE's. So unless dealers want to move even hybrids, I don't think your "soon" prediction is realistic.

One thing that could change this over time is solid state battery technology, greatly increasing the weight and increasing the power density of batteries, while lowering their cost meaningfully. But from what I read, that is still years away from even potentially being practical at the scale of a BEV, and we don't know if it will ever be a commercial success.

You may be correct over there, but this side of the pond, EVs are being sold as quickly as they're available and the current models will satisfy 90% of motorists 95% of the time. The only issue is supply, so if some manufacturers were to have a programme of converting unwanted diesel vehicles to electric, there would be a ready market. Many of the so-called "crossover SUV" type of vehicles are perfect for conversion as they already have the space to fit batteries under the floor. Even normal saloon type vehicles can be converted if you modify the non-structural floorpan to take batteries.

If the conversions are limited to low mileage vehicles in near perfect condition, they'll sell at 20% below the price of new vehicles (nearly new) with the bonus of new running gear. Sales of ICE cars are dropping in general anyway due to the improvements in longevity and oversupply, plus the fact that some prospective car buyers are waiting to see what the governments are going to do about Diesels, they could be restricted from driving in some cities at certain times in the near future. These are the people who would buy a nearly new converted vehicle, rather than have to wait for delivery of a new EV.
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