[Plantagenet]

The EU is now in serious trouble.

With the Brits leaving, independence movements in Italy, France, Denmark, Austria, etc. will be strengthened.

Italian parties that want out of the EU won the mayorship of Rome and important offices all over Italy. Italy could be the next country to leave. Le Pen in France also wants to leave the EU.

As countries leave the bill for propping up Greece and paying for the refugees will fall more heavily on the countries that remain.

The EU delayed announcing their budget plans so as to not affect the UK vote, but now the EU is saying it wants 20 Billion in extra taxes to pay for the refugees. The UK would've been taxes 5 billion or so....that has to be made up by the remaining EU countries.

AND that isn't going to be popular in the remaining EU countries.

Cheers!

[Lore]

Looks like Scotland, which overwhelmingly voted to stay in the EU, is now looking towards another referendum on its independence from the UK.

Brexit: Nicola Sturgeon says second Scottish referendum 'highly likely'
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/liv ... -in-europe

I say go for it, the smaller governments we have, the better, during the upcoming great disruption.

Actually, I see this as the beginning of scenarios resembling that of Europe just prior to WWI & WWII.

[sjn]

Let's be perfectly blunt here: the Brexit will never be implemented and the results of this referendum will be, for all practical intents and purposes, ignored.

In your dreams sunshine. Open your eyes.

We Brits are OUT.

By the way the FTSE ended up tonight more or less where it was last week. Shell B shares ended the day at £18.835 - highest since well before Febrary (Peaked at £19.10 this afternoon). Yes some shares have taken a hit (Banking, Airlines) but the mood of most in the UK is now jubilant.

Hard work ahead. We need a new leader - Boris perhaps ?.

Gas

Seriously Gas!?! Sterling is down ~10% against the US$ from before the referendum result, since shares are priced in £, that means even if they were the same price in real terms they are down significantly. Even then, given silver and particularly gold has risen strongly, the argument could be made that the dollar too was dragged lower. Gold was up ~15% in GBP today. Of course most stocks were considerably down on the day, even nominally, and that's despite massive intervention in the financial markets from the BOE!

By the way, the broader FTSE250 was down -7.19% today by close.

[dolanbaker]

Actually, I see this as the beginning of scenarios resembling that of Europe just prior to WWI & WWII.

WWI yes, a possible rhyme (WWII was really WWI part II) the break up an empire was one of the main trigger points of WWI.
Personally I don't see a war coming out over this, as the break up of the USSR was mainly bloodless, OK the breakup of Yugoslavia resulted in several bloody civil wars due to the ethnic make-up of the country.

I just can't see that happening in the current EU.

[Cid_Yama]

Britain's vote to leave the EU is a crushing defeat to globalism. Our Banking masters finally lost one. And there will be more to follow. Several EU states have just been waiting for the first one to leave, before they all break for the door.

Interest rates will be driven down to near zero as it's every country for themselves.

This October should be quite interesting.

[Newfie]

Why October CID?

[Cid_Yama]

Although there is no announced timetable, they were ready for this and the target is October. David Cameron just announced his resignation as of October. Through the end of the year will be the transition period and Britain will enter the new year as their own country again.

Through Article 50, the EU will attempt to dictate terms of Britain's exit, so there could be some fireworks.

[Newfie]

Thanks.

[Cid_Yama]

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on as it presupposes that the EU has the final say.

It was intended to make it difficult to leave rather than prescribe a procedure by which countries can exit as claimed.

In the end Britain will leave regardless, probably telling the EU to stuff it, and negotiate outside of the treaty, as they will have the EU over a barrel, not the other way around.

I wonder if Yanis Varoufakis is available?

[Oneaboveall]

...Through Article 50, the EU will attempt to dictate terms of Britain's exit, so there could be some fireworks.

That's what I was trying to say with my previous comment.

[careinke]

Britain's vote to leave the EU is a crushing defeat to globalism. Our Banking masters finally lost one. And there will be more to follow. Several EU states have just been waiting for the first one to leave, before they all break for the door.

Interest rates will be driven down to near zero as it's every country for themselves.

This October should be quite interesting.

I agree, the banksters should be very worried, I see pitchforks coming. This will probably bring more votes to Trump, if for no other reason than Hillary is backed by banksters.

Brexit was also an anti-immigration play, and as the summer wears on you will see increasing tension over the Muslim immigration in the UE. Brexit will appear to be a smart move by October.

Finally, I think the odds are significantly greater we will enter a world wide depression within a year, and Brexit will be blamed for being the trigger.

[Ibon]

If we see other nations abandoning the EU and taking back their independence and if we see this nationalism trend expand to other countries of the world what are all your thoughts on how this would effect climate change negotiations going forward?

[Cog]

If we see other nations abandoning the EU and taking back their independence what are your thoughts on how this would effect climate change negotiations going forward?

Hopefully, it will eliminate them entirely.

[sparky]

.
Beside the temporary turmoil , one thing stand out .
now , a most reluctant Germany become de facto the leader of Europe .
France is impotent , Italy broke , the rest hardly matter really

for Germany , having greatness shoved up their arse , is a disaster .
their whole business model was based on politically correct consensus ,now they will have to stand up and take the flack !
It will ,in the natural course of thing ,make them stand against the US claim of ultimate leadership .
Prez Putin said and meant that Russia doesn't want a weak Europe but a strong one exactly for this reason . It will take some time and probably a different Chancellor ,
Frau Merkel has notoriously wet panties every times she come close to Obama body .

then again a planetary bitch fight with Hillary is a distinct possibility .

PS on Germany reluctance to lead , it put me in mind of the Zaporovnian Cossacks electing their Hetman ,good manners demanded that the elected would attempt to flee , be dragged back , pelted with mud and handed the mace of office .

[Tanada]

IMO the beginning of the end of the EU dates back to the 1990's. With the end of the nominal threat of the Warsaw pact the EU had little left to offer that was not already present under the rules of the European Common Market. Add in the bureaucracy that increasingly cow tows to international corporations instead of taking care of the citizens living in the EU and why would any voter desire to be part of the EU?

If a governmental organization does not benefit the majority of its citizens in both the short and the long term it can only stay in power through brutal enforcement methods. The harsher the enforcement measure the less willingly the average person participates. This ranges from doing as little of the required work as you can get away with to outright leaving the jurisdiction of the government by any means possible. Only crony's with official 'friends' in these situations work hard to accumulate wealth, everyone else hunkers down and does just enough to get by. Why earn extra money if some political enforcer is going to tax or outright steal it away from you? Much easier to do what you need to survive and not one percent more, and less frustrating as well.

[careinke]

If we see other nations abandoning the EU and taking back their independence and if we see this nationalism trend expand to other countries of the world what are all your thoughts on how this would effect climate change negotiations going forward?

I think Nationalism could prove to be very beneficial to both mankind and the environment. If each nation was responsible for their own people and had a goal of self sustainability we would have over two hundred countries finding ways to help their own people, based on their own resources, geography and climates.

So instead of consolidating the research into one world government, where we seemed to be heading because big banks, big corporations, and liberals want it, we instead have over 212 different experiments taking place at the same time. And nothing is stopping the countries from sharing information and solutions with each other.

I am currently halfway through reading "The Great Disruption" where he describes a "War to get below a 1 degree C. warming," after the world wakes up (at the last second), to the reality of GW, and we accept what is "necessary" to do to achieve it.

https://www.amazon.com/Great-Disruption-Climate-Crisis-Shopping-ebook/dp/B004QO9660/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1466840327&sr=1-1&keywords=the+great+disruption

So some of my ideas will be influenced by this.

Anyway, with nationalistic policies, large population movements would be restricted thereby mitigating the spread of famine and disease across boarders.

Each country would of course have to develop their own policies. But if the US committed to going on a wartime footing to bring climate warming to less than one degree, (Yes I know it's impossible, but lets go through the mental exercise anyway), here would be my suggestions:

1. Immediately outlaw the production or importation of any FF burning engine. With the ultimate goal of zero carbon emissions, why bother building things you want to eliminate anyway? It also immediately makes the demand for zero emission vehicles, and energy production 100%.

2. Ban the export of all FF produced in country. Ultimately we want to keep as much of the FF in the ground as possible, selling it to other countries to burn is simply counter productive to our goals.

3. Tax all FF produced at the origination point, starting with an initial rate of twice the current energy cost of solar. Then add ten percent per year .....forever. Note: I would have all taxes based on consumption and eliminate the rest.

4. Tax the embedded carbon footprint of all imports at the same rate as #3. above, before entry into the country. You could negotiate with other countries to wave the tax if they have already taxed the carbon at the same rate.

5. Ban all government foreign aid. The government is for the benefit of it's citizens, not other countries citizens. Donations from individual citizens, groups, companies etc would not be restricted in any manner. Only the government would be banned from providing foreign aid.

6. Implement a 100% draft of all 18 year olds for two years. They could choose military, ecology, or health services etc. The manpower could be used for retrofitting homes, planting community gardens, searching for and correcting pollution sources, land regeneration, boarder patrol etc. Upon separation, they would be given a lump sum payment, and be given a monthly stipend that would at least cover their consumption taxes up to twice the poverty level. This same payment would be grandfathered to those over the age of twenty.

7. I would tax food based on it's carbon footprint. Feedlot cattle beef would be taxed at a much higher rate than grass-fed beef.

8. I would make Home Economics, Personal Economics, and Permaculture mandatory subjects in government schools.

9. Victory Gardens, buy local, and buy seasonal would all be highly encouraged.

10. States would be encouraged to become as self sufficient as possible, and this could carry on down all the way to the individual level. When it's impossible to become sustainable in any area you look to the next level up for help.

Anyway that is a start. Nationalism and localism may in the end, be the only solution.

[KaiserJeep]

After WW2, the abject and overwhelming lesson in the evils of Nationalism, there was a 50-year period during which globalization and free trade optimistically replaced the traditional European divisiveness and hostility. Nominally the beginning of the EU is the "Treaty of Rome" which creates the European Economic Community (EEC), or ‘Common Market’ in 1957. The paranoid incentive was the Cold War, with the NATO nations in an uneasy alliance to hold back the remnant Fascists (Salazar in Portugal and Franco in Spain), which was artfully warped into the opposition to the Marxists by an arch-conservative American named JFK. The USSR was the swan song of Marxism, although it achieved some astonishing things, including conquering NEO (Near Earth Orbit). But the world changed in several ways unanticipated by Marx and Engels, rendering their theories obsolete and their "insights" ludicrous. The USSR comes apart in 1992, and with it the actual need for NATO - but the USA is loathe to abandon the facade that NATO gives to US interests in Europe.

Following the breakup of the USSR, with Chernobyl an abject reminder of Soviet incompetence, Hungary had troubles and Yugoslavia split apart in the horrific Bosnia-Serbia conflict. The fall of the Berlin wall and the reunification of Germany was the decisive end to the USSR and the bogus theories of a 19th century writer who refused to acknowledge the nature of the primate called man.

The EU gains new members in 1981, 1995, and 2004. Meanwhile the "Arab Spring" happens, and the Middle East explodes in violence and resurgent anti-Semitism, unseen since the Nazi's. Incredibly, the Left in both the USA and Europa favors the new Fascists and opposes Israel. Then in 2001 with the 9/11 attacks in the USA, the "War on Terror" is declared. Then a deliberately engineered financial crisis strikes in 2008, and the EU begins to be inundated with the refugees from Middle Eastern warfare and economic malaise from the financial conniption which does indeed render OPEC all but powerless. This was the real reason for the crisis, and the USA paid the tab to keep both North America and Europe functioning.

Now the EU is painfully coming apart, and European Nationalism is on the increase, thanks to the backlash of all the Middle Eastern refugees. But the UK has already absorbed a fatal number of Muslims, as has the USA and in fact all major countries outside of China and the Far East. Not to mention, even the "good" (meaning peaceful) Muslims really do believe that the words of the Prophet in the Quran are absolute truth, and that the Sharia code will replace all others. Each year with the recitation of the entire Quran at Ramadan, they are reminded of this.

World War 3 is stirring. Soon the hopeful sentiments of a rising environmental consciousness will die in nuclear fire. I hold out the slimmest of hopes that a viable society in space may exist before the Earth dies in yet another worldwide conflict. Most of you believe me foolish, you insist that only on the planet can we persist.

That same world which will soon sprout mushrooms.

[vtsnowedin]

After WW2, the abject and overwhelming lesson in the evils of Nationalism, there was a 50-year period during which globalization and free trade optimistically replaced the traditional European divisiveness and hostility. Nominally the beginning of the EU is the "Treaty of Rome" which creates the European Economic Community (EEC), or ‘Common Market’ in 1957. The paranoid incentive was the Cold War, with the NATO nations in an uneasy alliance to hold back the remnant Fascists (Salazar in Portugal and Franco in Spain), which was artfully warped into the opposition to the Marxists by an arch-conservative American named JFK. The USSR was the swan song of Marxism, although it achieved some astonishing things, including conquering NEO (Near Earth Orbit). But the world changed in several ways unanticipated by Marx and Engels, rendering their theories obsolete and their "insights" ludicrous. The USSR comes apart in 1992, and with it the actual need for NATO - but the USA is loathe to abandon the facade that NATO gives to US interests in Europe.

Following the breakup of the USSR, with Chernobyl an abject reminder of Soviet incompetence, Hungary had troubles and Yugoslavia split apart in the horrific Bosnia-Serbia conflict. The fall of the Berlin wall and the reunification of Germany was the decisive end to the USSR and the bogus theories of a 19th century writer who refused to acknowledge the nature of the primate called man.

The EU gains new members in 1981, 1995, and 2004. Meanwhile the "Arab Spring" happens, and the Middle East explodes in violence and resurgent anti-Semitism, unseen since the Nazi's. Incredibly, the Left in both the USA and Europa favors the new Fascists and opposes Israel. Then in 2001 with the 9/11 attacks in the USA, the "War on Terror" is declared. Then a deliberately engineered financial crisis strikes in 2008, and the EU begins to be inundated with the refugees from Middle Eastern warfare and economic malaise from the financial conniption which does indeed render OPEC all but powerless. This was the real reason for the crisis, and the USA paid the tab to keep both North America and Europe functioning.

Now the EU is painfully coming apart, and European Nationalism is on the increase, thanks to the backlash of all the Middle Eastern refugees. But the UK has already absorbed a fatal number of Muslims, as has the USA and in fact all major countries outside of China and the Far East. Not to mention, even the "good" (meaning peaceful) Muslims really do believe that the words of the Prophet in the Quran are absolute truth, and that the Sharia code will replace all others. Each year with the recitation of the entire Quran at Ramadan, they are reminded of this.

World War 3 is stirring. Soon the hopeful sentiments of a rising environmental consciousness will die in nuclear fire. I hold out the slimmest of hopes that a viable society in space may exist before the Earth dies in yet another worldwide conflict. Most of you believe me foolish, you insist that only on the planet can we persist.

That same world which will soon sprout mushrooms.

Your time line is a bit screwy. You have the Arab spring in the wrong decade before 9-1-1.
And you space colonization fantasy continues to annoy.
Before we lift a viable human habitat out of the gravity well we should build it here on the ground and prove all the sustainability technology. The one attempt I know of was a complete failure but did demonstrate the mass of knowledge we are lacking about the functions of Earths' ecosystem.
It will be much easier and cheaper to build and test it on the ground in one G and at 15 psi outside pressure with escape routes just the length of the hall. Get that up and running with no imports of water or gasses or waste that has to be removed for years at a time and then come back to us with your space colony plans.