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Energy market disruption is underway

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The Future Of Crude Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 14:47:58



Summary In the long term Electric Vehicles will impact the price of crude oil but it’s unlikely to hit rock bottom as is popularly believed. Estimates of the time required for Electric vehicles to achieve cost parity with traditional cars are probably underestimated. In the short term a tug of war between Saudi Arabia and China will be a key determinant of the price of crude oil. China is stockpiling crude oil which could be used to check surge in oil price which will favor China in negotiating Aramco deal with Saudi. Long-Term Many now talk about crude oil heading to $10 a barrel. Such ideas stem from projections of technological changes favoring other sources of energy for economic or environmental reasons, in particular the evolution of Electric Vehicles (EV). It's no secret that the biggest source of demand for crude oil is its use as


The Future Of Crude Oil
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 21:41:19



An unprecedented wave of disruptions is facing energy and mining commodity markets. We have already seen environmental policy, socioeconomic changes and technological innovation kick off a major transition to low- or zero-carbon technologies. With the Paris Agreement targets set, governments are reinforcing their focus on meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals. This comes at a time when structural changes have lead to slower demand growth for hydrocarbons and several base metals compared with recent growth in supply. Many questions surround expectations for recovery from the resultant supply glut. Renewable technology costs are falling, and as battery storage capabilities and economics improve, renewable energy will become more reliable and competitive — potentially further displacing demand for oil, coal and natural gas in the power sector. This raises major questions about the imminence of peak oil demand, the role of gas as a


Energy market disruption is underway
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 21:42:36

Can anyone else say...Tony Seba has already explained all of this, and his presentation proving it is in my sig line?


WOO HOO!! Go Tony!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 23:48:41

AdamB wrote:With the Paris Agreement targets set, governments are reinforcing their focus on meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals.


Dream on.

There is no global greenhouse (GHG) reduction goal in the Paris Accords. Most nations at Paris committed to INCREASING their CO2 emissions, and the increase in global CO2 emissions projected to occur under the Paris accords is well above levels that might limit global T increases to 2° C

The Paris Accords are a fraud and a farce----the Paris accords includes commitments for large INCREASES in CO2 emissions. The claims of Obama and others that this will limit global T increase to only 2° C are damnable lies.

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The Paris Accords call for INCREASING CO2 emissions on a global basis. Obviously this will result in increased global warming to increasingly higher levels.

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Re: Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 06:28:33

AdamB wrote:Can anyone else say...Tony Seba has already explained all of this, and his presentation proving it is in my sig line?


WOO HOO!! Go Tony!!


Your boosting of Tony Seba is taking on the aura of fanatacism not any different from the ETP accolates except yours is corny and theirs is doomy.
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IEA prediction of explosive U.S. oil growth stokes OPEC fear

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 20 Jan 2018, 17:32:58


OPEC’s fear that another surge of shale oil could neutralize its production cuts might be coming true. U.S. oil output is set for “ explosive” growth this year as prices rally, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. That was just one of a chorus of voices from Goldman Sachs group Inc. to OPEC itself warning of a looming output surge reminiscent of the “heady days” of the first shale boom. As OPEC and allies including Russia gather in Oman this weekend, achievements including a three-year high in oil prices and rapidly dwindling supply glut may be overshadowed by the risk of becoming victims of their own success. “The big 2018 supply story is unfolding fast in the Americas” the IEA said in its monthly report. “Explosive growth in the U.S. and substantial gains in Canada and Brazil will far outweigh potentially steep


IEA prediction of explosive U.S. oil growth stokes OPEC fears
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 20 Jan 2018, 21:41:27

This is where the rubber meets the road, OPEC++ have to decide if they are making enough with the cuts to make further cuts in support of prices worthwhile. They have already proven to their (apparently) and my satisfaction that they are better off selling less oil for a higher price than they are flooding the market. The question now becomes, will they stay the course and keep cutting further as the USA booms again in the interest of maintaining prices at the current level or higher? Or will they resume the pump everything they can plan they tried in 2015-2016 and crash prices again which hurts them as badly or even worse (looking at Venezuela, Mexico, and others) as it does the USA Fracking industry? Sure all those companies that declared bankruptcy can not do it again for 7 years, but if one of them is bought out by a "new" company with a different name and different directors then the cycle can spin around again because they are no longer the same company even with all the same assets.

In their ideal scenario the TRRC would set quotas lower than 100% to keep a glut from reforming, but that is politically suicide in modern America where Congress would demand an anti-trust suit from the Justice Department if they actually set a quota.
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Re: Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 21 Jan 2018, 15:30:23

T - "Sure all those companies that declared bankruptcy can not do it again for 7 years, but if one of them is bought out by a "new" company with a different name and different directors then the cycle can spin around again because they are no longer the same company even with all the same assets."

Actually a corporation may file Chapter 11 as often as it wants. The general bankruptcy rules are much more complicated as you'll see here: http://ourbendlawyer.com/repeat-bankrup ... tcy-again/

"The Bankruptcy Code imposes time limits, or waiting periods, on discharges in Chapter 7 and Chapter 13 bankruptcy proceedings. For...Chapter 11 and Chapter 12...there are no time limits and your debts can be discharged as often as you file bankruptcy."

I don't recall the oil company but it recently filed Chapter 11 about 2 years after an earlier C11 filing. But remember what filing Chapter 11 bankruptcy generally does: the company comes out of the "reorganization" in relatively good financial condition. Pubcos that are acquired are generally not in bad enough shape to file bankruptcy. And remember what MIGHT happen in Chapter 11 filings: most, if not all, of the stock is transferred to the debt holders, as it was done with Halcon. Halcon today, with the debt holder receiving 96% of the stock, is a financially strong company becoming a big player in the new hot shale play in the Permian Basin. The original shareholders and the bond holders got f*cked. Which is exactly what the Chapter 11 bankruptcy law was designed to do. Corporate acquisitions are typically done when the company's stock is undervalued for whatever reason. The acquiring company takes over the debt of that company. Often a much better way to salvage some value for the shareholders then filing Chapter 11.

Remember the feds designed Chapter 11 for the benefit of the corporation and its employees...not necessarily the owners of the corporation.
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Re: Energy market disruption is underway

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 21 Jan 2018, 16:31:41

T - "...but that is politically suicide in modern America where Congress would demand an anti-trust suit from the Justice Department if they actually set a quota." But the TRRC still does set the "allowable" every month. Since the 70's it has set it at 100%. It would be an interesting Supreme Court battle if the reduced it since essentially the federal govt has set a precedence by approving the TRRC authority to do so since it began. Remember the feds have been the single largest financial beneficiary of this state mandated policy. Should the SCOTUS declare it unconstitutional then it would always have been unconstitutional. And the US govt would owe someone may hundreds of $billions...it not $trillions.

BTW: Do you know that the RRC was still enforcing statewide allowables on natural gas production as recently as the 1990s. So this is not an archaic concept and the federal govt didn't challenge the TRRC authority to limit fossil fuel production that recently, did it? There a lot of stuff out there that folks think the know but not all of it is true.
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