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Dow Jones Stock Market 2017

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 09:54:51

On Friday Oct 13:

DJIA 22,871.72, +30.71
NASDAQ 6,605.90, +14.29
S&P500 2,552.17, + 2.24

Pretty soon the DJIA will break 23,000.......and my former employer HP led the "gainers" at +6.42% for the day.

I don't think it's a bubble, I think the big boys are lining up the little lambs for the slaughter, a "correction conniption" will chop off their heads, and then the gains will continue with all the little guys working as hot dog venders and bicycle messengers.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby GHung » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 09:58:50

KaiserJeep wrote:On Friday Oct 13:

DJIA 22,871.72, +30.71
NASDAQ 6,605.90, +14.29
S&P500 2,552.17, + 2.24

Pretty soon the DJIA will break 23,000.......and my former employer HP led the "gainers" at +6.42% for the day.

I don't think it's a bubble, I think the big boys are lining up the little lambs for the slaughter, a "correction conniption" will chop off their heads, and then the gains will continue with all the little guys working as hot dog venders and bicycle messengers.



Any time that debts levels and markets are rising much faster than GDP and inflation, I see an imbalance growing. Just my take.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 10:49:03

There is something that experienced financial bankers will tell you : the doomsayers are always wrong long term.

some examples of failed predictions by some of the more famous stock market gurus

Richard Russell one of the stockmarket doomsayers predicted in October 2015 that the market was about to crash and everyone should liquidate all of their stocks. Since then the S&P has increased by 40%

In 2012 Felix Zulauf who heads a Swiss hedge fund stated that the S&P would see 1000 in the next two years. Not only did it not see 1,000 in the next two years but it climbed 800 points to 2007 just before the global recession at which point it dropped below 1,000 for a few months in 2009 and then took off to it’s current all time high 2500 points higher.

David Tice who heads Tice Capital predicted the S&P would drop to 1,000 the middle of this year and that gold would surge to $2500. Of course the S&P kept going higher and gold floundered between $1250 and $1300 all year.

Marc Faber who markets the Gloom, Boom and Doom Report predicted in 2012 that by Q4 of early 2013 there would be a global recession. Not only did that not happen but markets continued unabated upwards to their point now the S&P gaining some 1,000 points after he made the prediction

What do these guys all have in common? They have something to sell whether it is a position short or long they want to take that requires a certain behavior in the market they hope to engender or a newsletter etc. You are better off getting stock market advice from a Somali cab driver I'm afraid, just as good of a chance of being right.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 11:22:12

@Rockdoc. That was in the era of growth throughout the 20th century when all the business world and stock markets were generally going up. Not so going forward in the era of contraction. Being bullish from this point onward is a recipe for disaster.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 11:39:41

GHung wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:On Friday Oct 13:

DJIA 22,871.72, +30.71
NASDAQ 6,605.90, +14.29
S&P500 2,552.17, + 2.24

Pretty soon the DJIA will break 23,000.......and my former employer HP led the "gainers" at +6.42% for the day.

I don't think it's a bubble, I think the big boys are lining up the little lambs for the slaughter, a "correction conniption" will chop off their heads, and then the gains will continue with all the little guys working as hot dog venders and bicycle messengers.



Any time that debts levels and markets are rising much faster than GDP and inflation, I see an imbalance growing. Just my take.

Re the stock market, that's correct, if you mean GDP plus inflation. Over the long run, the stock market tends to reflect growth in the underlying economy, and factor in inflation. Since 1929, when reliable, accurate numbers started being consistently kept (per what I've read in multiple books) the US stock market has had total growth in the area of 9%. And that's not too far off the total rate of GDP plus inflation.

In the short run (which can run well over a decade for stock market trends), there is a lot of overall public enthusiasm (or angst) which can drive the stock market well above or below long term averages -- and that trend can persist for quite a few years. Eventually things will regress to the mean, but good luck trying to predict the timing of that.

The highly respected Jack Bogle of Vanguard Funds did an excellent job of explaining this in one of his widely acclaimed books, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds", near the beginning of the book, with an excellent supporting chart.

His main thesis, which is accurate in that index funds beat active funds over time is: You can't time the market, but since the market beats inflation over time, just efficiently invest in the market (via long term index funds), and be done with it.

So while you're right, if your intent is to out-time this period of market exuberance: again, good luck with that.

Unfortunately, experienced investors who know this don't have good interest rates to collect while keeping money on the sidelines (as I earned during my entire career, since I didn't want to be anywhere near 100% in the stock market, as I like sleeping at night). So now, given bond prices, the prudent investor who wants to be out of the stock market has choices like cash, earning a roughly 1.2% rate in a "high yield" FDIC insured savings account, or roughly half that in the better government money market mutual funds.

So part of the rise of the stock markets (it's more or less an overall global phenomenon for 2017, when I checked a month or so ago) might be people taking more risk going for return, since long term bond markets have super high risk, given the paltry bond yields.

That's another key concept -- with investments over the long run, you're being PAID to assume the risk of the underlying volatility in the market. No pain, little gain. It doesn't mean the world is heading for financial doom -- but there is no free lunch in the long run.

(Re debt, I don't know. What I do know is that 35 years ago when I started paying attention, there were plenty of paid purveyors of financial imminent doom (via financial newsletters) claiming the US was doomed from too much unsustainable debt, we were headed for hyperinflation and destruction of the dollar, and stocks should be avoided at all costs. (This was roughly 1982). And here we are -- plenty of short term turmoil, but with the doom purveyors saying the same thing, etc. So I'll deal with the risk via asset allocation and rebalancing instead of declining a lifetime of investment returns.)

Meanwhile, US stocks via the S&P has gone from about 335 in Oct. 1982 to over 1550 now. And that doesn't include dividends (the regular S&P 500 charts are showing market capitalization). And Gold, which many of the doomers were actively hawking, went from about $1060 in Oct. 1982 to about $1300 today. (A TERRIBLE result, considering inflation).

http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500- ... chart-data

http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histori ... year-chart

By the way, I don't make market forecasts, because I readily admit - I have no damn clue. I just don't think the published doom purveyers have any more clue -- and in fact, their obvious bias has historically made their advice disastrous over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 11:58:15

@Rockdoc. That was in the era of growth throughout the 20th century when all the business world and stock markets were generally going up. Not so going forward in the era of contraction. Being bullish from this point onward is a recipe for disaster.


which is pretty much what those guys were saying back then. And they were wrong. It is always "things are different now, it is much worse".

If you can predict the economy and market so well I suggest you dive in and short all the oils, banks, short gold as well because the ultimate doom scenario would have them both tanking. :roll:
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 00:05:21

Appears we may broach 25,000 on the DOW before years end. I'm wondering if we might have some profit taking early in 2018 to take advantage of the new tax laws. Its been quite the ride up this year.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 09:11:15

Cog wrote:Appears we may broach 25,000 on the DOW before years end. I'm wondering if we might have some profit taking early in 2018 to take advantage of the new tax laws. Its been quite the ride up this year.

Fattening up the Pig for the slaughter :P :P
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 09:22:12

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:Appears we may broach 25,000 on the DOW before years end. I'm wondering if we might have some profit taking early in 2018 to take advantage of the new tax laws. Its been quite the ride up this year.

Fattening up the Pig for the slaughter :P :P


Got a prediction you would like to make?
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 09:35:15

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:Appears we may broach 25,000 on the DOW before years end. I'm wondering if we might have some profit taking early in 2018 to take advantage of the new tax laws. Its been quite the ride up this year.

Fattening up the Pig for the slaughter :P :P


Got a prediction you would like to make?

As a matter of fact I do. The valuation of Bit coin and its derivatives
will crash in 2018
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 09:46:07

onlooker wrote:
Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:Got a prediction you would like to make?

As a matter of fact I do. The valuation of Bit coin and its derivatives
will crash in 2018
I would not bet against you on that one. 8)
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby Cog » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 09:51:24

What does Bitcoin have to do with the equity markets?

@onlooker Make a DOW prediction for 2018. Up, Down, Sideways. I wish to test your prediction acumen.
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Re: +21000 on the Dow

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 18 Dec 2017, 09:58:36

Cog wrote:What does Bitcoin have to do with the equity markets?

@onlooker Make a DOW prediction for 2018. Up, Down, Sideways. I wish to test your prediction acumen.

You wish to test my prediction acumen okie doke
I predict it will go up then in 2019, it will collapse. Ironically, at the same time ETP will be shown to be either accurate ir baloney
It is almost showtime boys and girls
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