Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.
Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.
There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.
Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.
There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
19 ways climate change is now feeding itself
mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.
Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.
There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
mmasters wrote:There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
mmasters wrote:I meant getting past the peak oil apocalypse people were predicting in 2008.
Even then it doesn't matter, we have at least 50 years of natural gas to power the economy if oil becomes uneconomical.
There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
jawagord wrote:
One of the readers at WUWT found this doomer gem from onehundredmonths.org (web location now available) - predictions from 2008, as kiwi chick likes to say rinse and repeat, wonder where she learned that!
100 months to save the world Climate change
The final countdown
Time is fast running out to stop irreversible climate change, a group of global warming experts warns today. We have only 100 months to avoid disaster. Andrew Simms explains why we must act now - and where to begin.
If you shout "fire" in a crowded theatre, when there is none, you understand that you might be arrested for irresponsible behaviour and breach of the peace. But from today, I smell smoke, I see flames and I think it is time to shout. I don't want you to panic, but I do think it would be a good idea to form an orderly queue to leave the building.
Because in just 100 months' time, if we are lucky, and based on a quite conservative estimate, we could reach a tipping point for the beginnings of runaway climate change. That said, among people working on global warming, there are countless models, scenarios, and different iterations of all those models and scenarios. So, let us be clear from the outset about exactly what we mean.
So, how exactly do we arrive at the ticking clock of 100 months? It's possible to estimate the length of time it will take to reach a tipping point. To do so you combine current greenhouse gas concentrations with the best estimates for the rates at which emissions are growing, the maximum concentration of greenhouse gases allowable to forestall potentially irreversible changes to the climate system, and the effect of those environmental feedbacks. We followed the latest data and trends for carbon dioxide, then made allowances for all human interferences that influence temperatures, both those with warming and cooling effects. We followed the judgments of the mainstream climate science community, represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), on what it will take to retain a good chance of not crossing the critical threshold of the Earth's average surface temperature rising by 2C above pre-industrial levels. We were cautious in several ways, optimistic even, and perhaps too much so. A rise of 2C may mask big problems that begin at a lower level of warming. For example, collapse of the Greenland ice sheet is more than likely to be triggered by a local warming of 2.7C, which could correspond to a global mean temperature increase of 2C or less. The disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet could correspond to a sea-level rise of up to 7 metres.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... nemissions
ralfy wrote:[
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/aug/01/climatechange.carbonemissions>
It doesn't mean that disaster will take place in 100 months. Rather, it refers to reaching a tipping point in around 100 months where we can no longer reverse the effects of climate change.
Plantagenet wrote:mmasters wrote:There is no doom. Maybe a generation or two out but not for us.
Unless you are really really old, doom in a generation will be doom for us as well. And you aren't going to wake up one morning and say, "Oh its doom now." The road to doom is a slow progressive destruction of the global environment and the economy....and that is exactly what we're seeing. That means things will be getting worser and worser all the way to doom.
A generation is usually considered to last 20-25 years......at the rate we're going on global warming, mass immigration, US deficits, global political disfunction, and consumption of oil and other natural resources I can well believe we will be halfway to doom in only 10-12.5 years.
The trend is not our friend.
Cheers!
mmasters wrote:
My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.
When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.
I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.
ralfy wrote:mmasters wrote:
My take is the doom stuff is at least 30-50 years out in the US. Trump is starting to streamline the way things operate, lessen our dependency on other countries and that should hold us for a good 20 years. There so much natural gas and recycling of materials the natural resources picture should be fine for 20-30 years.
When the doom comes it will be the haves and the have nots. People that have made well for themselves and insulated themselves from the rest should be OK.
I think climate change is too complex to be fully understood at this time. There's too many feedback loops. It may be a serious problem or it may not be; it's a wild card.
The catch is that the type of lifestyle that most citizens want is heavily dependent on high levels of energy and material resources needed to manufacture and ship goods across extensive supply chains and lengthy distances, often involving JIT systems which will allow for only a few days' worth of food, medicine, fuel, and even ammo in various cities and towns. This even applies to those who "have made well for themselves and [have] insulated themselves from the rest."
The implication is that it's not just climate change but the whole system of industrial civilization that has allowed global population to rise to more than seven billion that is highly complex, and at some time that complexity may cause the same system to unravel as the effects of limits to growth become more pronounced due to diminishing returns.
Meanwhile, ecological damage coupled with global warming can only make matters worse.
pstarr wrote:They will be third world heck-holes post peak
onlooker wrote:What Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion
Cog wrote:onlooker wrote:What Evil states may be the case. But an equal if not greater bias exists. And that is simply the fear of a foreboding and terrible future. Fear can be an overwhelming emotion
Your future will be told on December 31st, 2018. Or have you forgotten our wager like Shorty?
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