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Diesel shortage?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Europe to run out of diesel...

Unread postby Blech » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 08:18:29

They rely on diesel much more than regular gasoline. With small diesel cars they get 50 MPG easily.
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Re: Europe to run out of diesel...

Unread postby Cynus » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 10:51:51

You can't fool me, there's no such thing as shortages. Economics 101 teaches that. Prices will go up, and demand will go down, wala!, no shortages :)
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Re: Europe to run out of diesel...

Unread postby deconstructionist » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 10:59:08

Cynus wrote:You can't fool me, there's no such thing as shortages. Economics 101 teaches that. Prices will go up, and demand will go down, wala!, no shortages :)

cynus, are you joking? sorry, i don't know the history of your posts here.
prices ARE going up. demand is going up too. there is no sign of demand destruction occuring. saudi oil is on the verge of a collapse...

please see my quote from Pops in my signature below...
UNLESS
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Re: Europe to run out of diesel...

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 11:11:00

Yes Europe depends on diesel more than most places. I think that is why the GTL business is going to be very very big. It produces a diesel-like fuel that is high octane and very clean. Big problem up until recently has been the technology (developed by Shell) is extremely expensive and quite hazardous as it requires large tanks of pure oxygen on sight (the oxygen is pumped into the gas as part of the overall Fisher trouph process). Syntroleum has some relatively new technology that they are piloting in Qatar and Nigeria from floating barges. The only real difference between their technology and Shell's is they can get away with pumping in normal air rather than pure oxygen....way cheaper and safer. My guess is long term Syntroleum is going to be a going concern.
But again, as everyone points out this is a short term solution.
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Unread postby WisJim » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 15:06:38

whiteknight wrote: Dont forget agriculture. They get it at lower taxes rates as well. Not sure if that means get madder or what...


Farmers just don't pay the road tax on their gasoline or diesel, but the untaxed diesel is dyed and there are stiff fines if a road vehicle is found with the dyed fuel in its tank.

Jim
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Re: Europe to run out of diesel...

Unread postby lateStarter » Fri 12 Aug 2005, 16:47:25

Leaf wrote:Ive been in near every Eastern European nation this last 2 yrs...from my observations most cars are gas ...aboubt 25% diesel. Call it as you will my eyes tell me otherwise.
Europe will have about as many problems as the USA come post peak oil....Lets not fool ourselves.


I can't figure this out either. I am in Poland and even though diesel is 15% cheaper than gasoline, the majority of cars are gasoline powered. It is fairly popular here to 'convert' the car to run off propane which is at least 50% less than gasoline. I'm looking for a used diesel to help me get my farm setup...
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Re: Why does diesel cost so much?

Unread postby rtdrury » Tue 30 Aug 2005, 11:05:01

Forget any illusion that it's a free market, ok? The good ol' boys have long ago given up the good. American Enterprise Institute & Chicago School of Economics say they have to supercharge the markets to grow corporate earnings. It's like pumping more nitro into the corn field. It's unsustainable. So they block us from switching to diesel because that would hurt them in two ways. First, the engine manufacturers lose half of production (because diesel engines last twice as long) and second, the refiners lose 90% of their production (diesel much less refined). Any lost production anywhere simply won't do. They need that production to grow, not shrink. But you do have some great defensive options. Simply stop doing business with them. Work close to home. Walk to work. Work on your home computer. Pay off all your debt, especially your mortgage. Do your own construction work. Plant perennial open-pollinated food crops in your yard. So this way you stop feeding the hungry beasts. Benefit yourself for a change.
.
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EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Sat 10 Sep 2005, 22:52:41

This article really took me aback.

EU demands more and cheaper oil

It's got all the elements that add up to peak oil in one.

The blame game, the proposed technofixes, promises of more exploration, the spin, tension between countries, posturing, and the facts about growing deman vs. decreased production. All the elements that we who are PO aware, know we should be on the watch for. Therefore, we can only expect more of this - in ever worsening conditions - from this point forward.

The fact it was published widely is enough to scare me to death. If it's hitting the general public this strongly - we don't have half the time I thought we might a year ago.

Dammit.
:(

Kathy
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby Bedevere » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 01:27:42

I don't think that the current oil crunch is an indication of the world peak, just yet. We will probably be well into recession by the time that we actually reach max production.
Il faut d'abord durer.
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby MrBean » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 08:15:45

CarlinsDarlin wrote:This article really took me aback.

EU demands more and cheaper oil

It's got all the elements that add up to peak oil in one.

The blame game, the proposed technofixes, promises of more exploration, the spin, tension between countries, posturing, and the facts about growing deman vs. decreased production. All the elements that we who are PO aware, know we should be on the watch for. Therefore, we can only expect more of this - in ever worsening conditions - from this point forward.

The fact it was published widely is enough to scare me to death. If it's hitting the general public this strongly - we don't have half the time I thought we might a year ago.



There was two demands, local media here gave even more attention to the second one:

Ministers also appealed to the United States and China to use oil more efficiently.

"Attention should be drawn to the fact that the biggest sinners on energy efficiency -- the United States and also China now -- need to address this issue with greater intensity," Caio Koch-Weser, Germany's deputy finance minister, said.

The United States remains by far the world's largest oil consumer, guzzling a quarter of the world's daily usage of 81 million barrels, but China is second and demand in Asia has surged more than a third in the past decade.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker told reporters the issue would be raised at a meeting in two weeks of the G7 group -- the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and Canada.

"We will use our G7 meetings in Washington in two weeks to have a frank word with our American colleagues," Juncker said.


Many elements of EU political elite are becoming PO aware, but they still put the date mostly around year 2020.
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby MD » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 08:26:06

I expect the calls for US efficiency to grow with time. In fact, should actual shortages become chronic, I expecy new and/or existing cartels will begin to call for US energy embargoes.

How soon this pressure develops depends on the depth of this developing recession and the subsequent energy demand impact.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 12:41:47

History has shown that "more and cheaper oil" is not compatible with decreased energy usage especially in the US. The very best method to force the US into energy conservation measures is higher and higher energy prices. The US is an economic machine. Everything it does is economically related. European countries have always made their fuels artificially expensive via high excise taxes, so I believe the same simple economic principles are at work there also.
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby rogerhb » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 19:03:03

CarlinsDarlin wrote:EU demands more and cheaper oil


Have you got any examples of people wanting less and more expensive oil?
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby Licho » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 20:02:28

Yes, green parties few years ago :-)
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Re: EU demands more and cheaper oil

Unread postby CarlinsDarlin » Sun 11 Sep 2005, 22:05:42

Have you got any examples of people wanting less and more expensive oil?


roger,
It wasn't the title of the article, rather the content - which included far more than that one small part - that worried me. Of course countries want more and cheaper oil. I did not pick the title of the article. The author did.
k
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Theft: Cheap Stolen Diesel

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Thu 22 Sep 2005, 15:39:20

Diesel rustling (link) By GARANCE BURKE, Associated Press writer Thurs, Sep 22, 2005:
SAN FRANCISCO -- As fuel prices climb, farmers and ranchers are facing a foe not seen in the Old West: the diesel rustler.
A generation of farmers who grew up leaving the barn door open has taken to posting field hands to watch over diesel tanks at night, and locking up gas pumps even as thieves invent new ways to siphon fuel from farm equipment.
... "Most truckers pay cash for their diesel, so if they're not the owner-operator of the truck, buying cheap stolen fuel means they can pocket 100 bucks," said Reed. "Sure, we used to see theft, but it's definitely increasing as fuel prices go up. Now it's all the time."
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Re: Cheap Stolen Diesel

Unread postby RonMN » Thu 22 Sep 2005, 15:46:08

A generation of farmers who grew up leaving the barn door open...

8O
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Re: Cheap Stolen Diesel

Unread postby MD » Thu 22 Sep 2005, 15:56:36

I live in a place where doors are still left unlocked. I won't say where :) :)
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Cheap Stolen Diesel

Unread postby TWilliam » Thu 22 Sep 2005, 19:43:55

I live in an area that has a fair percentage of homes with oil heat (it's actually kerosene). An acquaintance shared with me today that a friend of hers (an older woman on a fixed income) decided that it would be better to have her tank filled now, before the weather turned cold and demand spiked. Apparently someone drained it shortly thereafter -- all 250 gallons.

She offered no details, tho' apparently they were both puzzled as to how it was done. I suggested that perhaps the seller defrauded her (never actually filling the tank), which apparently hadn't occurred to them as a possibility...

"Interesting" times ahead, methinks... :roll:
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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