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Delay of Peak Oil?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby Cog » Wed 24 May 2017, 20:05:04

If you hang out at Zerohedge or Tickerforum or any number of doomer sites and take all your news from there, you can easily get sucked into what I call the Doom-O-Sphere. A place so dark that the light of good news can not penetrate your consciousness.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:42:41

Kylon wrote:It's possible for the centers of civilization to mitigate peak oil temporarily, to delay it, via demand destruction by reducing access to credit and money through various means to peripherial nations.

To put it simply, they can decrease the amount of oil poor nations get, so they have more for themselves.


Well sure, and it works the other way around as well. When the 2008 slump happened the Chinese and Indians were able to greatly increase their oil consumption because the use by the EU and North America went into a big if temporary decline. Now that the economy in North America is picking up strength again the crude oil demand is recovering right along with it, but now the world has a lot more structural demand because the expansion in China and India were new users who had not demanded petroleum before 2008 but who will continue to demand oil in 2018.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 14:18:00

I don't see any of this delaying PO. But rather it is another facet of the peak oil dynamic as Rockman terms it. He is also the one who has pointed out this dynamic of the most potent rich countries aggressively competing with the next lower tier countries to weaken them and in that way they will remain strong. I believe he terms it MADOR. It really is becoming a zero sum game, where some winning means others losing.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 14:38:16

Oil pricing, no matter how distorted by futures markets, governmental policies, or even conflicts and warfare, is till in the end dominated by basic supply/demand. As the human population increases, the petroleum demand increases as well. Most of us believe that the actual petroleum supply peaked within the last decade, although the ephemeral games being played with non-conventional petroleum sources, shales, and fracking have distorted this somewhat.

But in the end, as the oil supply declines and the price of oil inevitably rises, the Third World will suffer greatly. Of course, they already are suffering. However, as they starve, YOU will be filling your vehicle with the fuel that could have made the difference between a hundred odd Third World citizens dying from famine, versus the continued malnutrition they were experiencing. Had they consumed that fuel via mechanized agriculture, they would then have reproduced and increased their numbers, and further exacerbated the demand for petroleum.

However you cut it, it's a lose/lose for the human race. As the oil supply tapers off, those fortunate First World citizens grumble about energy costs, and the Third World, then the Second World, simply die. Some number of First World citizens will survive, as long as led by those with the wisdom to understand that we are running out of FF's, and to develope renewable energy sources.

Our current leadership is not among those who possess such knowledge.
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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 16:58:31


On February 23, 2018, this from the blog: Peak oil? What peak oil? During the past two years there have been numerous articles on lack of investment in offshore projects which some suggest are desperately needed to forestall a shortage of oil in the out year (think, "Peak Oil"). Today, from a GlobalData press release: investment of $97 billion on top ten offshore oil projects will add 1.6 million bopd by 2025. Looks like we have a successful project Looks like we have a success project. ExxonMobil projects 500,000 bopd from the Guyana play. Data points: ExxonMobil has made a seventh oil discovery off-shore Guyana's deepwater Stabroek blck; this play will eventually expand to 500,000 bopd reservoir: 65 feet of high-quality, oil-bearing sandstone ExxonMobil's first discovery in this area was back in May, 2015: discovered more than 1 billion bbls of


Peak Oil? What peak oil?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby Darian S » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 15:57:44

If conventional is truly falling on a global scale at 5+% per year. 1.6Mbopd doesnt even cover the lost production.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 13:22:00

Darian S wrote:If conventional is truly falling on a global scale at 5+% per year. 1.6Mbopd doesnt even cover the lost production.

Well, it's not.

First, oil fracking is now conventional oil production.

Second, have you looked at the Permian formation figures recently?

Third, consider how many potential Permian-like formations (unexpected high production for quite a few years) are likely to exist in the entire world (where for various often non-geological reasons, haven't seen much oil fracking thus far).

We may well have a short term blip due to lack of E&P during recent low oil prices. But the idea that it isn't solvable until oil shales begin to play out on a global scale just doesn't pass the current economic and geological reality test.

How long that may be, I don't know. But the odds that it's "in our face" seem vanishingly small.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 14:19:58

> Delay of Peak Oil?

nope. There is no peak. no geo peak that is. However, it is likely that humans will move off oil for some better fuel at some point, so it makes sense to talk of obsoletion of oil, and that will induce an unforced peak. Copious, easy flowing oil will be left to refill wells and then pool on the surface again, while we use easier energy. But there's no rush. We can consume oil for millenia at ever increasing rates w/o the slightest hint of a geo-peak.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 15:00:06

Third, consider how many potential Permian-like formations (unexpected high production for quite a few years) are likely to exist in the entire world (where for various often non-geological reasons, haven't seen much oil fracking thus far).

We may well have a short term blip due to lack of E&P during recent low oil prices. But the idea that it isn't solvable until oil shales begin to play out on a global scale just doesn't pass the current economic and geological reality test.


There are a lot of moving parts to the unconventional side of things outside of North America. What really made it all possible in the US and Canada was access to lots of rigs that had been left idle and stacked and a tremendous amount of competition on the service side of things which lead to rapid drops in costs. North America was also blessed with a fiscal and regulatory regime that didn't need a lot of tweaking to be able to deal with the unconventional side of things. This isn't the case internationally. In most of the countries that have extensive basin centered gas and oil potential the regulatory environment is not set up in such a way as to make shale exploration seamless. As well you are invariably dealing with two main service providers Schlumberger and Halliburton who basically can charge whatever they want in a captive market. Access to water, land etc are all less straight forward in many places as are environmental regulations. This all conspires to make a shale gas/oil explosion outside of North America something that will take time and is likely to be very slow in growth.

I do think there is going to be a reckoning not far down the road. The US shale production is up scalable as long as the players have access to good land and access to capital. Given that debt is harder to come by and the equity market really hasn't turned in favor of the O&G companies these companies are a bit more challenged as their drilling programs are constrained by cashflow. I think there will be a period of increased activity and production as the frack log gets drawn down and the best locations are drilled but in time (perhaps as early as next year) activity will slow somewhat unless capital becomes more readily available. The lack of E&P activity from the conventional standpoint in offshore areas worldwide is more of an issue. With the shale plays the timeline between discovery and first production is extremely short (weeks usually) whereas with offshore projects and especially deepwater it is measured in years. Hence that 3 year period of almost no global E&P activity has a greater impact than one would intially think.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 15:19:22

In a few weeks' time, Cuadrilla should have production figures from the 2 wells they are currently fracturing.
If the early, optimistic reports prove accurate, their could be a building of momentum for other countries to embrace unconventional development.

Argentina is already showing steady growth despite numerous internal obstacles.
Likewise, the Fuling in China is showing surprising strength in output while continuing to face geological and infrastructure related constraints.

Bottom line, there are numerous areas in the US with shale-sourced hydrocarbons (EIA has a great description of these from 2011, I believe).

There are many similar regions throughout the world with Russia's Bazhenov the most prominent.

When the need arises, these guys will step up and bring on the production.
It has been this way for over 100 years.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 21:14:25

When the need arises, these guys will step up and bring on the production.
It has been this way for over 100 years.


the problem is, as I pointed out, just stepping up is often not as easy as you might think in these countries.

Argentina as an example. Without a doubt the Vaca Muerta is more endowed than any of the shale's in North America and Argentina has a huge need for natural gas (they have been paying anywhere from $9/Mcf to $14.Mcf for gas from Bolivia and LNG delivered at port. Yet still it's development ticks ahead very slowly. There are a host of problems including a government who is always walking on eggshells in terms of what decisions they make so as not to seem too non-leftist and a large group of unions that are capable of stopping everything in a heart beat. Add to that the fact all of the water in the Nequen and Rio Negro provinces that could be used for fracking falls in lands held by the very rich Estancias who want that water for their cattle and vineyards and you end up with a host of problems.

Eventually these countries will deliver on shale gas/oil but it is not going to be as fast as the US did it for a whole variety of reasons that have nothing to do with below ground issues.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 05:20:45

We are supposed to be discussing geology induced peak oil, yet the puported best of us, rockdoc can do no better than pontificate economics. That's because he knows the limiting factor in oil production is closer to economics, not geology. Geology isn't even a factor in peakoil. It seems the purpose of this site is effectively to confound economic cause with geo cause. And its not even economics, its strategic politics. The world price of oil is often kept artificially very low to stop competitor oil producers from profiting and establishing themselves as independant. The war with russia is due to russia's independace wrt oil production.

but getting back to the topic of this thread
>delay of peak oil?
You lot don't realise how cut off this forum is from the wealth of academia and geology & experimental evidence. Its a tiny echo chamber of nonsense. I only visit for a week or two every year just to amuse myself, and see how you've dug yourself further in you own hole. See how you laugh at all the global warming myth doomers on the enviro forum? why do you think the site owners allow such nonsense? Because is creates a doomer market. You think it promotes the fossil fuel myth is for any other reasont? lul

I've learnt there's no point trying to dissuade religious fanatics from their religion, its not logic and reason that prop up your belief, its pride and blind faith. In case there's a stray logical thinker here by mistake, I've given u all the links u need to move back to reality.

here's some quotes fromt the real world of science, experimental and geology evidence.

"Statistical thermodynamic analysis has established clearly that hydrocarbon molecules which comprise petroleum require very high pressures for their spontaneous formation, comparable to the pressures required for the same of diamond. In that sense, hydrocarbon molecules are the high-pressure polymorphs of the reduced carbon system as is diamond of elemental carbon. Any notion which might suggest that hydrocarbon molecules spontaneously evolve in the regimes of temperature and pressure characterized by the near-surface of the Earth, which are the regimes of methane creation and hydrocarbon destruction, does not even deserve consideration."
- Professor Emmanuil B. Chekaliuk, at All-Union Conference on Petroleum and Petroleum Geology, Moscow, 1968.

Kenney et al. (2002) analyzed theoretically, via thermodynamic computations, the possibilities for hydrocarbon generation at high pressures and temperatures and showed that it is possible. They went on and performed successful experiments, using a specially built high pressure apparatus (Nikolaev and Shalimov, 1999) at pressures of 50 kbar, temperatures to 1500 °C . Using only as reagents solid iron oxide and 99.9% pure marble, wet with triple distilled water, they were able to generate methane. They reported that at pressures lower than 10 kbar only methane was formed while at pressures greater than 30 kbar a multi-component hydrocarbon mixture was formed including methane, ethane, propane, n-alkanes as well as alkenes, in distributions characteristic of natural petroleum.

Yeah thats right. Anyone armed with a high pressure chamber, water, marble and iron ore can make petroluem abiotically. Unlike biotic theory, abiotic theory is a verified scientific theory, and has been for a long time. From the simplest model to the most accurate, abiotic theory makes sense and is support by experimental evidence. At mantle pressure, atoms are pressed together into molecules that have high chemical potential energy, it should be expected that when some of these molecules upwell to the surface that they are prone to release that energy. One day your fanaticism may relent, then you can ask yourself : why wouldn't a compressed spring tend to decompress when released?
I posted info on other such abiotic confirming experiments this time last year ( diamond anvil experiments that turn methane into ethane and propane ) and rockdoc was forced to ignore those as well.

enjoy. unless there's any questions or replies, I'll return for next years IEA oil production figures. And you know what? I hope that 2018 oil production does not surpass 2017's all time record. Why? because this site will become more fun. The doom hysteria will get a new lease of life, and you lot will actually switch back to reality a little more ( you've had to ignore oil production figures since 2008 ). You'll all be in uproar upholding the IEA figures as the centrepiece and totem of your religion, instead of ignoring them and an outsider like me having to post them to you.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 10:55:51

When the need arises, these guys will step up and bring on the production.
It has been this way for over 100 years.


Large shale plays all over for the last 100 years?
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby spike » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 11:35:57

New press release from Rystad:
Mature fields grew 151 billion barrels over the last four years
March 5, 2018
Rystad Energy estimates that liquid resources from mature assets grew 151 billion barrels over the last four years, which is almost 17% more than the amount produced in those years. This brings the total remaining liquid resource count to 1.227 trillion barrels as of year-end 2017.
Of the 151 billion increase, 68 billion barrels are from conventional onshore fields, 43 billion barrels are from shale, while offshore resources have grown by 40 billion barrels. For conventional onshore, a large part of the growth is driven by Saudi Arabia. Increased infill drilling and better investment terms have lifted the estimate for the remaining resources in the country. For shale, the growth is primarily driven by better well performance and more target benches in the Permian basin. The offshore uplift is driven by the Middle East, Russia and Europe.
“Growth in mature fields can be driven by many factors, such as increased infill drilling, improved understanding of the reservoirs, EOR projects and technology improvements. These developments are more challenging to track compared to new discoveries and often are difficult to measure,” Espen Erlingsen, senior vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy, states.
The effect of these developments can be estimated by comparing the total amount of remaining resources in 2013 and 2017. The number was at 1.186 trillion barrels at the end of 2013. This was reduced through production by 132 billion barrels of oil and NGL. Over the same period 22 billion barrels of new liquid resources were discovered.
Those numbers indicate 1.076 trillion barrels should remain, but Rystad Energy’s latest estimates based on bottom-up research puts the count at 1.227 trillion barrels at the end of 2017, implying the 151 billion barrel growth from mature assets.
“Combining resource revisions in mature fields with volumes from new discoveries, 173 billion barrels were added to global resources over the last four years. The contribution from producing fields shows the importance of investing in mature assets,” Erlingsen comments.
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents ... n-barrels/
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby tita » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 12:46:58

"Unlike biotic theory, abiotic theory is a verified scientific theory, and has been for a long time."
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Nice from you to spend a few time each year to entertain us and make a good laugh.

See you next year!
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 12:59:50

The trouble with the theory? So far, abiotic oil has not been proven to exist on Earth in any economic quantities. Oil exploration geologists have also not been able to make any discoveries using abiotic theories, and many abiotic claims have been debunked as pseudoscience.


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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 14:22:25

looker - "Oil exploration geologists have also not been able to make any discoveries using abiotic theories...". I see where you're trying to go. But as explained many times before neither the biotic or abiotic theories of the origin of oil play much of a role in oil exploration. We look for the ACCUMULATIONS of oil regardless of its origins. There are only certain rock types that can trap oil: we do not hunt for oil where those types of rocks don't exist. Oil is only stable under a specific temperature range: we don't look for oil where temperatures are too high for oil to exist.

IOW about 99.996% of the earth does not contain the rocks, at an acceptable temperature, for oil to accumulate. I've found no record of liquid hydrocarbon found deeper the 40,000'. The distance from the earth's center to the surface is about 20 million feet. So the 0' to 40,000' layer represents just 0.2% of the earth with temperatures that allows liquid hydrocarbon to exist. The continental crust, the only region where accumulations of liquid hydrocarbons have been discovered, covers 40% of the globe. Thus only 40% of that 0.2% has the potential to accumulate liquid hydrocarbons...IOW 0.08%

Of course not every square foot of that 0.08% has an accumulation of liquid hydrocarbon underneath it. Here I can only offer a questimate (based on 40 years of looking at oil field maps) of how much of that area has an oil field underneath it. But let's use 5% even though I suspect it’s less. Maybe much less. Which sounds low but remember there are areas on the earth with igneous rocks as well as sedimentary rocks in basins where very little to no oil has been discovered. And the fact that oil fields don’t tend to be right up against each other: hundreds of thousands of dry holes across the globe that have been drilled between those fields.

So now we’re down to 5% of that 0.08%. Or 0.004%. Thus how I approximated 99.996% of the earth is of no interest to geologist hunting for oil. And that’s the number whether all oil has formed from a biological or abiotic process: if it has accumulated where we have to look for it the origin is not relevant.

Which actually seems reasonable IMHO when you consider to what lengths companies are going it now to: drilling in 10,000’ of water, drilling in the Arctic Ocean, drilling expensive long horizontal wells with dozens of equally expensive frac stages, drilling/producing in regions which periodically become war zones. If we could find accumulations (biotic or abiotic) in less expensive/dangerous areas wouldn’t we be doing it now?

Folks really do need to appreciate the petroleum industry’s success given the odds against us. In not much more then 100 years we’ve discover a significant % of oil accumulations, regardless of their origins, in just an extremely tiny fraction of time it took for them to accumulate. And given that our capabilities have grown tremendously in the last few decades it may take much less then the next 100 years to find those remain oil reservoirs worth developing.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 15:29:50

@rockman
> I've found no record of liquid hydrocarbon found deeper the 40,000'

On 27 August 2012, Exxon Neftegas Ltd beat its own record by completing Z-44 Chayvo well. This ERD well reached a measured total length of 12,376 meters (40,604 ft)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakhalin-I
there's some ambiguity : is the figure for depth or length? It may not be absolutely vertical, in which case the depth may not be 40,000ft+.

But the main point is that for $60/barrel, its barely worth the risk of drilling 12km and setting up a well. 12km is a record breaking depth. You should know that the reason for not going much further than 40,000ft is economic, and not because the oil isn't there. Yet for the sake of fossil fuel beliefs you are confounding these two reasons.

And 40,000ft. really? 12km. This is stuff that was supposed to start at the surface, and tends to migrate upwards. Every generation the floor for oil drops another 10,000ft, and theory is stretched to fit the facts. Next decade it'll be 50,000ft, with rockmans and rockdocs standing their ground that this is totally fine for biotic theory and insisting that abiotic is wrong because 'we don't find oil any lower'.

Then it'll be 60,000ft, 70,000ft on and on. From an outsider's perspective the idea that biological detritus gets down to 40,000ft is already beyond reasonable.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 15:59:05

there's some ambiguity : is the figure for depth or length? It may not be absolutely vertical, in which case the depth may not be 40,000ft+.


no shit sherlock....the wells in this Sakhalin field are all drilled as extended reach wells from an onshore location anywhere 11,000 to 12,000 feet offshore and the producing horizon is at ~ 2500 m TVDSS. There is no ambiguity at all, it is called an extended reach well for a reason.

So no, oil isn't being produced from some horrendous depth. As usual with respect to anything oil and gas related you have your head firmly inserted in your backside.
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Re: Delay of Peak Oil?

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 17:57:40

well i don't mind throwing you a few softballs just to bait u out of your hole in the ground. that's the 1st technical response i've had from u in a year. Come on, you can't get much satisfaction from endlessly kicking the retard doomers around the environment forum.

>So no, oil isn't being produced from some horrendous depth.
that's like taking a glass of water off the top of the lake and saying " since I've only taken water off the top of the lake, there is no water any deeper than where I've taken it from "
I can see why you had to go into geology rather than computing or maths at school.

If you want to get serious, refute this :
Kenney et al. (2002) analyzed theoretically, via thermodynamic computations, the possibilities for hydrocarbon generation at high pressures and temperatures and showed that it is possible. They went on and performed successful experiments, using a specially built high pressure apparatus (Nikolaev and Shalimov, 1999) at pressures of 50 kbar, temperatures to 1500 °C . Using only as reagents solid iron oxide and 99.9% pure marble, wet with triple distilled water, they were able to generate methane. They reported that at pressures lower than 10 kbar only methane was formed while at pressures greater than 30 kbar a multi-component hydrocarbon mixture was formed including methane, ethane, propane, n-alkanes as well as alkenes, in distributions characteristic of natural petroleum.

http://origeminorganicadopetroleo.blogspot.co.uk/

Otherwise you can sit on the bench looking to catch the odd softball I throw. Bit beneath what I'd expect from someone of your purported background.
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